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verage gdp growth rate where the featured article from trading economics says gdp annual growth rate in the united states averaged 3 14 percent from 1948 until 2020 but if 3 14 is the average good growth must be more than that and if growth has been between 2 and 3 for the last 20 years then growth in the earlier years must have been higher to make the average go above 3 currently trading economics says this the united states is the world s largest economy yet in the last two decades like in the case of many other developed nations its growth rates have been decreasing if in the 50 s and 60 s the average growth rate was above 4 percent in the 70 s and 80 s dropped to around 3 percent in the last ten years the average rate has been below 2 percent and since the second quarter of 2000 has never reached the 5 percent level growth in the early years was higher now the picture s coming into focus gdp growth has been declining and average gdp growth has been declining and the growth rate that economists say is good growth has also been declining if you can t fix the economy by making it better you can always make it sound better by lowering the bar maybe when the pandemic is over economists will start saying 1 growth is good growth me i say 4 or better is good growth i m a holdover from times past you want to remember that gdp is a measure of income if you want more income then you want a bigger share of gdp or the same share from a growing gdp when you say we don t need growth you are saying either i don t want more income or i want to make my share bigger by making someone else s share smaller i don t accept either view and the idea of making other people s shares smaller so you can have more that s not a popular view it s a way of saying inequality is great as long as it s in your favor but a lot of people are mighty upset about inequality i think the only choice is to get more growth so for crying out loud stop lowering the bar on what constitutes good growth at august 27 2020 1 comment email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest sunday august 23 2020 before the great inflation the cost of finance below two graphs from an old post recall that after world war two the post war golden age ran from about 1947 to about 1973 recall also that the so called great inflation ran from about 1965 to the early 1980s the graphs below consider the early years of the golden age before the onset of the great inflation it was growing financial cost got the inflation ball rolling union demands took the hit for it later but union demands did not create the initial problem the rising cost of finance got inflation going and kept it going until a wage price spiral emerged for domestic corporate business financial cost increased faster than the compensation of employees graph 1 interest costs increased faster than compensation of employees consider the 1955 1958 period the years that concerned samuelson and solow for every dollar corporations paid out as employee compensation in 1955 they paid out five cents for interest costs by 1958 that number was seven cents for every dollar of employee compensation they paid out corporate business spent two cents more on interest in 1958 than in 1955 financial costs gained on labor costs financial costs also gained on profits graph 2 interest costs increased faster than corporate profits for domestic corporate business financial costs increased faster than profits between 1955 and 1958 corporate interest costs rose from 15 cents to 25 cents per dollar of corporate profits a ten cent increase in interest costs ten cents for every dollar of profit for the whole period shown on the graphs corporate interest costs rose from less than 10 cents to more than 30 cents per dollar of profit and from less than 4 cents to more than 10 cents per dollar of employee compensation it was finance not wages or profits that created the inflationary pressures at august 23 2020 1 comment email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest thursday august 20 2020 i don t think this is pointless but i could be wrong found a folder named new folder on my desktop it was empty so i deleted it the folder below it new folder 2 also empty also got deleted likewise for the one below that new folder 3 the next desktop icon i came to was my toynbee asimov and civilization folder it contained this image file from an old google search i saved that screenshot months ago because spengler asimov and toynbee fascinate me so now i looked up the google book a search within for asimov didn t turn up anything that caught my eye but in the table of contents this entry did a search for ricardo duchesne the fall of universal history turned up a two page excerpt from chapter 7 of the palgrave advances book at springer and at brill a largely similar two page excerpt from chapter one of ricardo duchesne s the fall of western civilization and the rise of multicultural world history note that the one refers to the fall of an approach to history and the other to a fall of civilization both however refer to the rise of multicultural world history that topic interests me the rise of multicultural world history but i know little about it which is of course why i m looking now i do think it relates to current attitudes about the phrase the dark ages current attitudes well britannica says the use of the words dark age implies a pejorative value judgment about intellectual darkness and barbarity in our time of course intellectual darkness and barbarity are still not widely admired so pejoratives are still applied in our time and about our time in our time too we have president trump an extraordinarily fine example of intellectual darkness and barbarity and pejoratives are applied you could say that since the time of reagan maybe goldwater intellectual darkness and barbarity have been on the rise sure but then you have to admit that it s a process a process of change change toward what in our time is best called a new dark age that reminds me of this from the historian m i rostovtzeff on the fall of rome what happened was a slow and gradual change a shifting of values in the consciousness of men what seemed to be all important to a greek of the classical or hellenistic period or to an educated roman of the time of the republic and of the early empire was no longer regarded as vital by the majority of men who lived in the late roman empire and the early middle ages they had their own notion of what was important the thinking of trump and his merry band differs from that of today s liberal a shifting of values is in progress i m talking about a way to understand the world a way that could help resolve differences so anyway duchesne writes of the fall of universal history and the rise of multicultural world history and as i said i know little of all that but i was interested enough to spend the morning in search mode wikipedia says duchesne s main research interests are western civilization the rise of the west and multiculturalism that sounds like exactly the right combination of interests to answer the questions i wish i knew enough to ask and then wikipedia adds duchesne s views on immigration and multiculturalism have been described as racist and white nationalist and that caught me by surprise i d have thought the euro centric universal history would be the racist one and the multicultural history would be free of all that baggage but duchesne s thinking at least according to martin hewson is moving toward post multicultural history so not multicultural thinking with its assumed natural freedom from the racist baggage again wikipedia duchesne also criticizes some conservatives for advancing the idea that western political identity is based only on universal liberal democratic values that are true for all human beings he argues that liberalism is uniquely western and that western identity is also deeply connected to the ethnic character of europeans more recently duchesne has argued that civic nationalism is consistent with a strong collective sense of ethnic national identity the enlightenment s cosmopolitan promotion of peaceful relations among nations and opposition to the slave trade he has written should not be interpreted as a call for a globalist race mixed order in the west he has criticized isaiah berlin among others for promoting the idea that johann gottfried herder was the original advocate of multiculturalism and racial diversity inside western nations arguing instead that herder was a promoter of the value of distinctive nationalities in the world peacefully co existing alongside each other in a multicultural world order the last part of that paragraph reminds me of hayek in the road to serfdom neither an omnipotent superstate nor a loose association of free nations but a community of nations of free men must be our goal and i think duchesne on herder is the only statement i ve seen that expresses hayek s idea better even than hayek i find the wikipedia article disappointing duchesne has been accused by some of poor scholarship and of holding white nationalist or racist views historian r charles weller has described duchesne s anti immigration stance as bearing an uncanny resemblance to white nationalist and racist anti immigration laws of the interwar period aimed at maintaining a white majority maybe i dunno but i know that this excerpt is not about duchesne and his ideas it is about other people and their criticism of his ideas or rather their interpretation or misinterpretation of his ideas and criticism thereof if you tell me what duchesne said i can begin to form my own evaluation of it if you tell me that what duchesne said was racist then all i know is what you think of it me i tell you what i know spengler asimov and toynbee fascinate me the rise of multicultural world history interests me even if i don t know much about the topic at august 20 2020 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest tuesday august 18 2020 there is no official national tally of school linked covid 19 cases and some states are not reporting how many outbreaks have occurred or how many students and staff members have been infected nbc news 17 august coronavirus is spreading in schools but the federal government isn t keeping count coronavirus cases are already surfacing in k 12 schools that have reopened but the federal government is not tracking these outbreaks and some states are not publicly reporting them making it more difficult to determine how the virus is spreading experts say without good data that tracks cases over time and shows how one case turns into many cases there s just no way to answer that question said emily oster an economist at brown university and co founder of covid explained a team of researchers studying the pandemic in january we ll be in the same position that we are in now and kids still won t be in school at august 18 2020 1 comment email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest monday august 17 2020 goldstone the movie by ivan sen except on bad days i don t accept the notion that you can t change the world but the statement quoted below is a powerful one and i wanted to capture it for the blog from goldstone on netflix starting around 55 30 the old whore talking to the young one the world is what it is you cannot bargain with it you cannot change it to find a place to fit within it this is your destiny anything else is to ask for trouble anything else is to ask for too much the world was not made for you you were made for it at august 17 2020 1 comment email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest friday august 14 2020 i have to stop reading the google news for background on the financial difficulties of the postal service see this youtube video from john oliver s last week tonight of 10 may 2020 https www youtube com watch v iol8g0w9gaq in particular starting about 6 minutes in the part about the postal accountability and enhancement act of 2006 at august 14 2020 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest sunday august 9 2020 adam smith on the rise of order quotes from book 3 chapter 4 of the wealth of nations it was the rise of commerce that brought order smith says commerce and manufactures gradually introduced order and good government and with them the liberty and security of individuals among the inhabitants of the country who had before lived almost in a continual state of war with their neighbours and of servile dependency upon their superiors this though it has been the least observed is by far the most important of all their effects mr hume is the only writer who so far as i know has hitherto taken notice of it not the feudal law the introduction of the feudal law so far from extending may be regarded as an attempt to moderate the authority of the great allodial lords but though this institution necessarily tended to strengthen the authority of the king and to weaken that of the great proprietors it could not do either sufficiently for establishing order and good government among the inhabitants of the country because it could not alter sufficiently that state of property and manners from which the disorders arose the authority of government still continued to be as before too weak in the head and too strong in the inferior members and the excessive strength of the inferior members was the cause of the weakness of the head after the institution of feudal subordination the king was as incapable of restraining the violence of the great lords as before they still continued to make war according to their own discretion almost continually upon one another and very frequently upon the king and the open country still continued to be a scene of violence rapine and disorder it was not feudal law according to adam smith but the growth of commerce and manufactures that brought order to the feudal era at august 09 2020 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest saturday august 8 2020 adam smith on patriotism a merchant it has been said very properly is not necessarily the citizen of any particular country the wealth of nations book 3 chapter 4 at august 08 2020 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest friday august 7 2020 adam smith on rising wages it is not the actual greatness of national wealth but its continual increase which occasions a rise in the wages of labour the wealth of nations book 1 chapter 8 22 at august 07 2020 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest tuesday august 4 2020 3 however there is still something wrong with the economy at august 04 2020 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest monday august 3 2020 the shutdown began with the nba according to the bleacherreport com timeline of coronavirus impact on sp...
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