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lat somewhat like 1974 1993 on the graph but to keep it flat at a much lower level a level where the economy constantly wants to grow vigorously we may not get golden age growth that way but long term growth will be better that way than any other way and it will be sustainable growth it will be the quasi boom i expect you know who said this the right remedy for the trade cycle is not to be found in abolishing booms and thus keeping us permanently in a semi slump but in abolishing slumps and thus keeping us permanently in a quasi boom that s the end of the old post by the way this topic comes up lately because the debt ceiling is in the news the purpose of the debt ceiling political bluster aside is to reduce the growth of the federal debt but if you spend a moment with the graph you can see that when private debt is high and federal debt is low the one relative to the other times are hard i m not making this up it s in the data and it s on the graph we also know from experience since the 1970s that increasing the federal debt and federal spending and all that does not make the economy better 1 so we cannot solve the problem stephanie kelton s way by setting public spending always to the level required to achieve full employment and accepting whatever deficit may result we ve seen insane increase in the federal debt for half a century and for half a century economic growth has been slowing we cannot solve the problem kelton s way the idea that we need more federal debt is only half a thought we need more federal debt relative to debt other than federal this could happen easily without increasing the federal debt if we sufficiently reduce debt other than federal our own debt i d like to see new policies that encourage us to pay down our debt more quickly and help us afford to do it as an alternative perhaps a massive debt forgiveness but i have trouble picturing that as a practical matter i think we should expect continued increase in federal debt while we transition to a lower private debt economy after the transition we will be able to whittle down feddebt without creating problems it s a good plan but we need policy to make lower private debt happen because existing policy works the other way existing policy does everything possible to increase the availability and use of credit because policymakers think credit helps the economy grow they think using credit helps the private sector grow but that too is only half a thought using credit helps the private sector grow if we are not already overburdened with debt but we in the private sector are already overburdened with debt we have been overburdened with debt for two generations now that s why the economy got slow in the mid 1970s and it s why increasing the federal debt has not improved the economy since the mid 1970s it is the policy of always encouraging more use of credit that created the problem what policy has to do now is encourage us to pay down debt faster than normal we have to offset all the policies that caused the excessive use of credit and because policymakers let things get so bad the new policies must do more than encourage us to pay down our debt those new policies must help us pay down our debt think of it as a mistake they thought their policies were good for the economy and they were right the policies were good until debt started to be a problem we knew debt was becoming a problem probably before the 1990s we knew but the rich guys that make the policies they didn t see a problem they were probably collected the interest we were paying think of it as a mistake they didn t realize how bad things were getting at our end so they kept using their stupid rule the credit is always good rule to try and make things better and i guess when more interest payments started rolling in things did seem better to them but not to us so we need the new kind of policy the kind that helps us pay down our debt to reverse the effects of credit use policy and it was their mistake so they should pay for it policy has to help us whittle down our debt if it doesn t the economic vigor will never return now might be a good time to talk to your congressman about this because the debt ceiling is in the news if that takes effect and the the growth of the federal debt is reduced it ll push us up higher on the graph and the only solution then will be to reduce private debt even faster to get the ratio down worse comes to worst another great depression could do the trick but i don t want to go there notes 1 a big federal debt and big deficit spending make things better for some people and some businesses maybe for many but the federal debt and deficits do not improve the economy s ability to make things better for people and businesses in a way that makes the big debt and deficits no longer necessary thus i say that increasing the federal debt does not make the economy better certainly the goal should be to restore economic vigor and the pursuit of happiness so more people have a better chance to earn a decent living the goal must not be only to help us cope with a disappointing job a disappointing income and a disappointing life at may 08 2023 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels debt ceiling 2023 sunday may 7 2023 the ten biggest increases in the federal debt a couple of cautions by increases i mean percent increase not dollars or billions and here we look at both the federal debt for the years 1947 2022 and the u s public debt for the years 1917 1970 i figure the public numbers include debt for all levels of government public debt source historical statistics the two largest increases in public debt of the 1916 1970 period are over 100 in 1917 the increase was bigger than the whole existing debt at the end of 1916 1918 again this time even bigger than the accumulation thru 1917 after those two wwi related increases there are three from wwii these are well below 100 next one more year from wwi then two more from wwii and finally two from the great depression that s the top ten federal debt source fred for the federal debt the biggest increase of the 1946 2022 period was the pandemic related increase of 2020 nowhere near the 100 level the pandemic debt increase was nonetheless almost 25 of the total federal debt existing at the end of 2019 coming in a close second is the increase of 1975 i m thinkin wow the 1974 recession was a severe one the two next largest increases are related to the great recession that followed the financial crisis a decade and a half ago after that 1982 another severe recession then one more for the great recession followed by three increases following that of 1982 and one for 1976 following up on the 1975 increase yeah it is true that by looking at the size of the increases we lose sight of the size of the total accumulation that still catches me by surprise every so often the data on public debt is from the bicentennial edition of the historical statistics chapter x the data on federal debt is from fred i m using fgtcmdodns a measure of credit market debt this is equal to neither the gross federal debt nor the debt held by the public it runs between those two measures i wanted to look at these numbers because i have never seen them shown this way in order by size of increase it really makes the problem years stand out at may 07 2023 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels debt ceiling 2023 thursday may 4 2023 reblogging a pictorial history private and public debt i first posted this back in march of 2016 ten graphs all the same image but with different yellow highlighting later that same day netbacker posted the graphs on twitter and added some text and a lot of meaning to them recently i posted a one graph version now since the topic came back i figured i d re post the 2016 version i m including netbacker s text above each graph a pictorial history private and public debt 1 the graph shows the size of private debt as a multiple of public debt for the years 1917 to 2014 this graph shows the level of private debt relative to the level of public debt or you could call it non federal debt relative to federal debt the older blue data are from the bicentennial edition of the historical statistics the newer red data are from fred all these images use the same graph with different highlighting 2 the ratio of private to public debt fell during world war one public debt rose faster than private debt the ratio of private to public debt fell during world war one 3 after the war the roaring twenties private debt rose faster lower debt burden at start than public debt after the war the roaring twenties 4 the great depression and world war two shows previous raising private debt isn t sustainable eventually crashes the great depression and world war two 5 after world war two a golden age having deleveraged private sector is again ready to take on more private debt after world war two a golden age 6 beginning around 1974 two decades of sluggishness ensued you guessed it private debt burden begins to hurt again beginning around 1974 two decades of sluggishness ensued 7 beginning around 1994 a goldilocks economy good years clinton surplus leads to overburdened private debt beginning around 1994 a goldilocks economy good years at this point netbacker added an info box about the not too hot not too cold goldilocks years 8 since 2000 slowing growth an overburdened private sector couldn t take on more private debt since 2000 slowing growth 9 the 2008 financial crisis and aftermath private sector debt deleveraging at max speed crisis and aftermath 10 time for a new goldilocks economy does history repeat or does it rhyme a new goldilocks economy thanks again netbacker your words add so much to my pictures at may 04 2023 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels debt ceiling 2023 newer posts older posts home subscribe to posts atom why economists must think in terms of the cycle of civilization i ve been hearing the phrase late capitalism for so long that i m forced to conclude that the very concept of late cap looks like vigor to me went to harbor freight the other day when i left there was so much traffic i had to fight my way out of the parking lot at one p m on let s see if this one gets me into trouble as i write this it is mid october in an even numbered year elections are weeks away yesterday i saw republican candidates heavily adver not the rate of interest but the cost of finance not inflation but the decline of growth it is surely true that the price level cannot rise without a corresponding increase in the quantity of money or velocity or use of credit the most important difference between cost push and demand pull inflation i m not a fan of diagrams in economics but sometimes this is a screen capture of slide 36 from a slideshare presentatio federal debt is the measure of economic troubles in the private sector not the cause of them the cause is excessive private sector debt private debt is too big and too costly it slows the economy it slows income growth it makes decent jobs scarce we lost our greatness to excessive private sector debt we can regain american greatness by reducing private debt if we do so before china has all the greatness note that we have many policies to encourage the use of credit and no policies to encourage repayment of debt selected fred data free ebooks forever fadedpage levy institute publications art s old vigor page click folder tab to view contents quick quotes on debt sbt hover for the quote click for the source steve keen sbe thomas palley sbe palley again same source sbe arthurian spontaneous sbe arthurian sbe id a j toynbee a study of history unabridged vol 1 page 1 abridgement vol 1 thru 10 id mostly old cost push stuff 1937 the general theory of employment 1958 the phillips curve paper 1959 charles schultze recent inflation in the united states 1960 richard lipsey on the phillips curve 1960 samuelson and solow problem of achieving and maintaining a stable price level 1962 arthur okun potential gdp its measurement and significance 1968 friedman s presidential address the role of monetary policy or alt link 1970 milton friedman the counter revolution in monetary theory 1974 f a hayek prize lecture the pretense of knowledge 1977 thomas m humphrey on cost push theories of inflation in the pre war monetary literature id papers by johannes a schwarzer sbt samuelson and solow on the phillips curve and the menu of choice a retrospective 2013 sbe growth as an objective of economic policy in the early 1960s the role of aggregate demand 2014 sbe price stability versus full employment the phillips curve dilemma reconsidered 2016 sbe retrospectives cost push and demand pull inflation milton friedman and the cruel dilemma 2018 sbe id papers by norikazu takami 1950s cost push sbt baffling inflation cost push inflation theories in the late 1950s united states 2014 sbe the baffling new inflation how cost push inflation theories influenced policy debate in the late 1950s united states 2015 sbe id archive org links sbt archive org home sbe note at archive org the upper right corner search is for all of archive org to search the open book click the search icon on the left side of the window and use quotes around search phrases sbe historical statistics thru 1970 part 1 arrighi g the long twentieth century dalio r economic principles how the economic machine works delong h a profile of mathematical logic r c k ensor england 1870 1914 finley m i the ancient economy friedman m free to choose friedman m money mischief kissinger h the meaning of history reflections on spengler toynbee and kant leuchtenburg w franklin d roosevelt and the new deal leuchtenburg w the perils of prosperity lot ferdinand the end of the ancient world and the beginnings of the middle ages montagu a toynbee and history critical essays and reviews mullineux a w business cycles and financial crises quigley the evolution of civilizations rostovtzeff the social and economic history of the roman empire terborgh george the new economics tooke thomas an inquiry into the currency principle toynbee aj a study of history volumes i vi abridged wanniski jude the way the world works sbe id timelines industrial capitalism sbe mercantile capitalism sbe 10000 years of economy sbe id blog themes and on the pedestal these words appear my name is ozymandias king of kings look on my works ye mighty and despair nothing beside remains shelley toynbee maintained that the fate of civilizations is determined by their response to the challenges facing them stefan zenker the ideas of economists and political philosophers both when they are right and when they are wrong are more powerful than is commonly understood indeed the world is ruled by little else j m keynes economic policy encourages credit use and discourages the repayment of debt that s how we in the p...
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