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mpirical research and theoretical analysis has lent support for berman s argument 146 yale university political scientist daniel mattingly argues civil society in china helps the authoritarian regime in china to cement control 147 clark m golder and s golder also argue that despite many believing democratization requires a civic culture empirical evidence produced by several reanalyses of past studies suggest this claim is only partially supported 13 philippe c schmitter also asserts that the existence of civil society is not a prerequisite for the transition to democracy but rather democratization is usually followed by the resurrection of civil society even if it did not exist previously 15 research indicates that democracy protests are associated with democratization according to a study by freedom house in 67 countries where dictatorships have fallen since 1972 nonviolent civic resistance was a strong influence over 70 percent of the time in these transitions changes were catalyzed not through foreign invasion and only rarely through armed revolt or voluntary elite driven reforms but overwhelmingly by democratic civil society organizations utilizing nonviolent action and other forms of civil resistance such as strikes boycotts civil disobedience and mass protests 148 a 2016 study found that about a quarter of all cases of democracy protests between 1989 and 2011 lead to democratization 149 theories based on political agents and choices edit elite opposition negotiations and contingency edit scholars such as dankwart a rustow 150 151 guillermo o donnell and philippe c schmitter in their classic transitions from authoritarian rule tentative conclusions about uncertain democracies 1986 152 argued against the notion that there are structural big causes of democratization these scholars instead emphasize how the democratization process occurs in a more contingent manner that depends on the characteristics and circumstances of the elites who ultimately oversee the shift from authoritarianism to democracy o donnell and schmitter proposed a strategic choice approach to transitions to democracy that highlighted how they were driven by the decisions of different actors in response to a core set of dilemmas the analysis centered on the interaction among four actors the hard liners and soft liners who belonged to the incumbent authoritarian regime and the moderate and radical oppositions against the regime this book not only became the point of reference for a burgeoning academic literature on democratic transitions it was also read widely by political activists engaged in actual struggles to achieve democracy 153 adam przeworski in democracy and the market 1991 offered the first analysis of the interaction between rulers and opposition in transitions to democracy using rudimentary game theory and he emphasizes the interdependence of political and economic transformations 154 elite driven democratization edit scholars have argued that processes of democratization may be elite driven or driven by the authoritarian incumbents as a way for those elites to retain power amid popular demands for representative government 155 156 157 158 if the costs of repression are higher than the costs of giving away power authoritarians may opt for democratization and inclusive institutions 159 160 161 according to a 2020 study authoritarian led democratization is more likely to lead to lasting democracy in cases when the party strength of the authoritarian incumbent is high 162 however michael albertus and victor menaldo argue that democratizing rules implemented by outgoing authoritarians may distort democracy in favor of the outgoing authoritarian regime and its supporters resulting in bad institutions that are hard to get rid of 163 according to michael k miller elite driven democratization is particularly likely in the wake of major violent shocks either domestic or international which provide openings to opposition actors to the authoritarian regime 161 dan slater and joseph wong argue that dictators in asia chose to implement democratic reforms when they were in positions of strength in order to retain and revitalize their power 158 according to a study by political scientist daniel treisman influential theories of democratization posit that autocrats deliberately choose to share or surrender power they do so to prevent revolution motivate citizens to fight wars incentivize governments to provide public goods outbid elite rivals or limit factional violence his study shows that in many cases democratization occurred not because incumbent elites chose it but because in trying to prevent it they made mistakes that weakened their hold on power common mistakes include calling elections or starting military conflicts only to lose them ignoring popular unrest and being overthrown initiating limited reforms that get out of hand and selecting a covert democrat as leader these mistakes reflect well known cognitive biases such as overconfidence and the illusion of control 164 sharun mukand and dani rodrik dispute that elite driven democratization produce liberal democracy they argue that low levels of inequality and weak identity cleavages are necessary for liberal democracy to emerge 165 a 2020 study by several political scientists from german universities found that democratization through bottom up peaceful protests led to higher levels of democracy and democratic stability than democratization prompted by elites 166 the three dictatorship types monarchy civilian and military have different approaches to democratization as a result of their individual goals monarchic and civilian dictatorships seek to remain in power indefinitely through hereditary rule in the case of monarchs or through oppression in the case of civilian dictators a military dictatorship seizes power to act as a caretaker government to replace what they consider a flawed civilian government military dictatorships are more likely to transition to democracy because at the onset they are meant to be stop gap solutions while a new acceptable government forms 167 168 169 research suggests that the threat of civil conflict encourages regimes to make democratic concessions a 2016 study found that drought induced riots in sub saharan africa lead regimes fearing conflict to make democratic concessions 170 scrambled constituencies edit mancur olson theorizes that the process of democratization occurs when elites are unable to reconstitute an autocracy olson suggests that this occurs when constituencies or identity groups are mixed within a geographic region he asserts that this mixed geographic constituencies requires elites to for democratic and representative institutions to control the region and to limit the power of competing elite groups 171 death or ouster of dictator edit one analysis found that compared with other forms of leadership turnover in autocracies such as coups elections or term limits which lead to regime collapse about half of the time the death of a dictator is remarkably inconsequential of the 79 dictators who have died in office 1946 2014 in the vast majority 92 of cases the regime persists after the autocrat s death 172 women s suffrage edit one of the critiques of huntington s periodization is that it doesn t give enough weight to universal suffrage 173 174 pamela paxton argues that once women s suffrage is taken into account the data reveal a long continuous democratization period from 1893 1958 with only war related reversals 175 international factors edit war and national security edit jeffrey herbst in his paper war and the state in africa 1990 explains how democratization in european states was achieved through political development fostered by war making and these lessons from the case of europe show that war is an important cause of state formation that is missing in africa today 176 herbst writes that war and the threat of invasion by neighbors caused european state to more efficiently collect revenue forced leaders to improve administrative capabilities and fostered state unification and a sense of national identity a common powerful association between the state and its citizens 176 herbst writes that in africa and elsewhere in the non european world states are developing in a fundamentally new environment because they mostly gained independence without having to resort to combat and have not faced a security threat since independence 176 herbst notes that the strongest non european states south korea and taiwan are largely warfare states that have been molded in part by the near constant threat of external aggression 176 elizabeth kier has challenged claims that total war prompts democratization showing in the cases of the uk and italy during world war i that the policies adopted by the italian government prompted a fascist backlash whereas uk government policies towards labor undermined broader democratization 177 war and peace edit main article territorial peace theory two british marine commandos take protection behind debris during the capture of walcheren island during world war ii the link between war and democratization has been a focus of some theories wars may contribute to the state building that precedes a transition to democracy but war is mainly a serious obstacle to democratization while adherents of the democratic peace theory believe that democracy causes peace the territorial peace theory makes the opposite claim that peace causes democracy in fact war and territorial threats to a country are likely to increase authoritarianism and lead to autocracy this is supported by historical evidence showing that in almost all cases peace has come before democracy a number of scholars have argued that there is little support for the hypothesis that democracy causes peace but strong evidence for the opposite hypothesis that peace leads to democracy 178 179 180 christian welzel s human empowerment theory posits that existential security leads to emancipative cultural values and support for a democratic political organization 181 this is in agreement with theories based on evolutionary psychology the regality theory finds that people develop a psychological preference for a strong leader and an authoritarian form of government in situations of war or perceived collective danger on the other hand people will support egalitarian values and a preference for democracy in situations of peace and safety the consequence of this is that a society will develop in the direction of autocracy and an authoritarian government when people perceive collective danger while the development in the democratic direction requires collective safety 182 international institutions edit a number of studies have found that international institutions have helped facilitate democratization 183 184 185 thomas risse wrote in 2009 there is a consensus in the literature on eastern europe that the eu membership perspective had a huge anchoring effects for the new democracies 186 scholars have also linked nato expansion with playing a role in democratization 187 international forces can significantly affect democratization global forces like the diffusion of democratic ideas and pressure from international financial institutions to democratize have led to democratization 188 promotion foreign influence and intervention edit main article democracy promotion the european union has contributed to the spread of democracy in particular by encouraging democratic reforms in aspiring member states thomas risse wrote in 2009 there is a consensus in the literature on eastern europe that the eu membership perspective had a huge anchoring effects for the new democracies 186 steven levitsky and lucan way have argued that close ties to the west increased the likelihood of democratization after the end of the cold war whereas states with weak ties to the west adopted competitive authoritarian regimes 189 190 a 2002 study found that membership in regional organizations is correlated with transitions to democracy during the period from 1950 to 1992 191 a 2004 study found no evidence that foreign aid led to democratization 192 democracies have sometimes been imposed by military intervention for example in japan and germany after world war ii 193 194 in other cases decolonization sometimes facilitated the establishment of democracies that were soon replaced by authoritarian regimes for example syria after gaining independence from french mandatory control at the beginning of the cold war failed to consolidate its democracy so it eventually collapsed and was replaced by a ba athist dictatorship 195 robert dahl argued in on democracy that foreign interventions contributed to democratic failures citing soviet interventions in central and eastern europe and u s interventions in latin america 65 however the delegitimization of empires contributed to the emergence of democracy as former colonies gained independence and implemented democracy 65 geographic factors edit some scholars link the emergence and sustenance of democracies to areas with access to the sea which tends to increase the mobility of people goods capital and ideas 196 197 historical factors edit historical legacies edit in seeking to explain why north america developed stable democracies and latin america did not seymour martin lipset in the democratic century 2004 holds that the reason is that the initial patterns of colonization the subsequent process of economic incorporation of the new colonies and the wars of independence differ the divergent histories of britain and iberia are seen as creating different cultural legacies that affected the prospects of democracy 198 a related argument is presented by james a robinson in critical junctures and developmental paths 2022 199 sequencing and causality edit scholars have discussed whether the order in which things happen helps or hinders the process of democratization an early discussion occurred in the 1960s and 1970s dankwart rustow argued that the most effective sequence is the pursuit of national unity government authority and political equality in that order 200 eric nordlinger and samuel huntington stressed the importance of developing effective governmental institutions before the emergence of mass participation in politics 200 robert dahl in polyarchy participation and opposition 1971 held that the commonest sequence among the older and more stable polyarchies has been some approximation of the path in which competitive politics preceded expansion in participation 201 in the 2010s the discussion focused on the impact of the sequencing between state building and democratization francis fukuyama in political order and political decay 2014 echoes huntington s state first argument and holds that those countries in which democracy preceded modern state building have had much greater problems achieving high quality governance 202 this view has been supported by sheri berman who offers...
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