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description= Posts about class written by Phil;
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n years out nb this paragraph has been updated the first draft suggested that these dates did work the first draft was wrong before 1973 britain wasn t in the common market in 1973 today s 60 year olds were 15 but 50 year olds only 5 this would suggest that the european project as a whole is a live issue for over 60s but nobody younger survey says over 70s before 1993 on the other hand britain was in the european community but not the european union meaning that the longer term project of european integration together with britain s weird patchwork of opt outs and concessions wasn t an issue for anyone below 15 at the time in 1993 today s 40 year olds were 15 but 30 year olds only 5 this would suggest that european integration is a live issue for over 40s but nobody younger survey says over 50s guess it s the big generational shifts after all updated forgot the obligatory musical accompaniment hey you young people share this print opens in new window print email a link to a friend opens in new window email share on x opens in new window x share on facebook opens in new window facebook like loading by phil also posted in britain europe history popular singing groups you young people comments 5 a kind of solution 19 october 2017 23 58 you ve probably seen this i think it s a work of genius not least because of the way it anticipates an obvious objection from some of those hostile to its message well you may not be british but i am far back as you like which indeed i could say myself although there is a question mark over one of my great grandfathers anticipates and sidesteps it you may indeed be british son of british son of british etc but every one of your glorious british ancestors almost certainly had to deal at some point with people who moved in and unsettled the neighbours it s true that there are quite long periods of english history when nobody was moving in but all of them predate queen victoria and who apart from the duke of devonshire has any sense of who they were that far back overall it s a brilliant reframing of immigration that fully earns its closing opposition of love and openness to fear and isolation good to have you with us jigsaw you may not have seen this more sceptical response the reaction to professor goodwin s comment hasn t been entirely positive ian dunt no pinko he contrasted the reception given to people defending immigration they should maybe dial it down a bit and people attacking immigration we should understand their legitimate concerns other commenters took the opportunity to attack the perceived tendency in british political academia personified by goodwin and rob ford to put out a conceptual welcome mat for the ukip brexit mindset by arguing that ukip weren t racist or else that ukip supporters weren t racist or that attacking ukip as racist would be a bad idea update on twitter ford has clarified that his position is the third of these attacking ukip as racist may not be the most effective way to counter their appeal together with a heavily qualified version of the second viz that the majority of ukip supporters aren t or weren t racist although there were more racists among ukip supporters than among supporters of most other parties i briefly got into this argument myself asking fairly pointedly whether there was still a constituency of white working class racists whose sensibilities we on the left needed to be careful of i wasn t able to pursue the argument at length on twitter partly for time reasons partly because come on it s twitter so here s what i was getting at 1 the collapse of ukip changes everything goodwin and ford are some of the more prominent intellectually respectable advocates of what i ll call the legitimate concerns model the model of british politics that says that anti immigration attitudes run both wide and deep in britain particularly among white working class voters to the point where any frontal attempt to call or root them out would be disastrously counter productive as if to say yes these people have some dreadful attitudes but what can you do confront them good heavens you don t want to do that i ve seen ulster unionists written about in similar boys will be boys tones not to mention going back a few years serbian nationalists the legitimate concerns model was based it seems to me on the existence of what grew to seem like a fact of nature between 2004 and 2015 a substantial and consistent vote preference for ukip expressed at general elections and in opinion polls as well as at european parliament elections generally putting ukip in a solid third place with 15 25 of the vote now that we re back to a world of two party polarisation with labour and the tories between them accounting for 80 85 of voting intentions while ukip are down at 4 5 and fighting the greens for fourth place that model isn t required and should i believe be abandoned note that i m not saying that the model doesn t work if i said that model a theirs worked before the collapse of the ukip vote but model b mine works now i d actually be disqualifying both models theirs and mine a lot of things have changed since 2016 but the very nature of reality itself isn t one of them any model has to be capable of explaining the low as well as the high ukip vote and i m sure that the legitimate concerns model tweaked with a brexit vote here and a hostile environment there can pass the test with may discredited her party divided and the government patently foundering why is the tory vote so stubbornly high well if you look at it this way it s not that the model doesn t work lots of models work what the model lost when the great ukip threat went up in smoke wasn t its correspondence with reality but something more fundamental and easily overlooked the reason for us to choose it in the first place it was a good enough reason in its time the rise of ukip was a great story in retrospect and an alarming one in prospect a cloud no bigger than a man s hand in 1997 a 3 combined vote for ukip and the referendum party a european breakthrough in 2004 consolidated in 2009 and built on in 2014 recognition by the pollsters in 2012 with vote shares at 15 or above from 2014 to 2016 second places in labour seats in 2015 with the threat of a major breakthrough next time round it cried out for explanation before it was too late and to be fair if you want to explain the fact that large numbers of people have switched to a party with policies a and b hypothesising that large numbers of people have a strong preference for policies a and b isn t the most ridiculous idea but something happened in 2017 that suggested that this phenomenon no longer needed explaining in fact it had started happening in 2015 in oldham west not to put too fine a point on it the phenomenon that was crying out for an explanation isn t there any more people some people may still say yes when they re asked if they re worried about immigration or political correctness or whatever but the loss of a vehicle for those resentments makes them far less significant how many people would have voted to re criminalise homosexuality under heath to bring back the rope under thatcher to re nationalise the railways under blair a fair chunk of people in each case quite probably a majority of voters for the respective governing party it didn t matter because there was no credible political subject constituted around demands like those and consequently no electoral threat to the party in power ukip and the respect with which ukip was treated for so long gave credibility to an unstable bundle of right wing populist themes ranging from vague nationalistic nostalgia to outright anti muslim racism but that s over now it isn t even correct to speak as i did just now of the loss of a vehicle for those resentments ukip s right there with a brand new badger strangling leader what s happened is that it s been abandoned by a large majority of its former supporters and if those people don t think it s important to articulate their political identity in those terms neither should we in short if what was happening between 2004 and 2015 looked quite a bit like the constitution of a new white british nationalist political subject what s happened since 2015 doesn t i can understand why you might have wanted to start from there then but i really don t think you should want to have started from there now 2 ok so what has happened since 2015 two things and they re things we all know about this isn t arthur c clarke s mysterious world here on one hand the brexit vote gave ukip and its supporters everything that they ostensibly wanted note that qualification article 50 in and of itself doesn t get us to banning the hijab or teaching kids about agincourt or allowing smoking in pubs or bringing back the old money or whatever but leaving the eu was what it was all supposed to be about and leaving the eu we apparently are and ukip now stands revealed as a contradictory formation on one hand it clearly isn t wasn t a single issue party look at all the imperial nostalgia all the xenophobic scaremongering all the authoritarian table thumping all the bad faith free speech nonsense you can t say that any more there are forward looking liberal democracies outside the eu and reactionary authoritarian states within it we could in theory leave and be like norway or remain and be like hungary in theory we could even advocate leave as socialists ukip stood for many things occasional eccentricities aside those issues form an unstable but reasonably coherent ideological constellation and the simple fact of the uk being or not being a member state of the eu is far from central to it and yet on the other hand ukip was a single issue party the clue s in the name and for the large majority of its supporters once that issue was achieved the party was of no further use if ukip s policies formed a loose ideological bundle leaving the eu was the string that held the bundle together take that away and even the true believers fall apart the other key factor in the unravelling of ukip has six syllables three words but the first one s a small word hint begins with o jeremy corbyn has done something that hasn t been done for a very long time and has certainly never been dreamt of in the last twenty years he s signalled the intention of making labour a genuinely left wing party and making the next labour government a genuinely left wing government dedicated to advancing the interests of working people at the expense of those of business as i ve documented on this blog a statement of intent from the leader s office is nowhere near enough to transform the labour party that s going to be a long job but ironically it is enough to transform the electoral spectrum as of june 2017 you can divide 90 of the british public into three roughly equal sized groups a bit less than 30 who think corbyn s ambitions for britain sound great and will vote labour to help make them happen a bit less than 30 who think they re a very bad idea and will vote tory to prevent them and a bit more than 30 who really weren t joking when they said they didn t care about politics the only hopes of setting or framing or even tilting the agenda from outside the old two party system lie with the parties voted for by the other 10 of the population but half of that 10 is made up of lib dems and most of what s left consists of voters for northern irish parties or scottish or welsh nationalists ukip are nowhere they did score solid second places in both the oldham and stoke by elections in stoke central they even increased their vote but of course that s not what they were aiming for they thought they could win and they weren t alone lots of commentators from john harris to stephen bush thought they had a chance and who knows under david miliband or liz kendall they might have had a chance under corbyn no on a side note i genuinely had to stop and think for a moment to remember liz kendall s name that s showbusiness 3 ok but what happened before that before 2015 what happened before 2015 can be told quite briefly there are always ideologies coherent bodies of ideas about how society works and how it should be organised outside the bounded spectrum of permissible political views that we think of as the mainstream if you re a green or an anarchist or a white supremacist or a trotskyist or an irish republican or a nozickian minarchist or an absolute pacifist or a small r republican or a radical feminist or an anti imperialist to name but ten you know that you re unlikely ever to hear your spokespeople interviewed on newsnight or not without a lot of leading questions and interruptions and if eight of those unpalatably extreme viewpoints are broadly on the left and only two on the right well that just shows how clever leftists are at coming up with new labels for themselves doesn t it people s front of judea ho ho what happened in the late 1990s was that the spectrum of political legitimacy was redefined and narrowed delegitimising some previously habitable territory on both left and right by new labour which then proceeded to occupy the whole of the reduced spectrum it had staked out the tories were boxed in their only choices were to occupy what was now an unpalatable far right area or fight new labour on what was now its own turf small wonder that they couldn t return to power until the weird mule like conjunction of a global financial crisis a blair alike old etonian leader and a 23 vote for the lib dems cruelly outplaying labour at the culturally liberal apolitical centrism game it s easy to forget just how strong the lib dem vote in 2010 was six million people voted lib dem in 2010 that s a million more than voted for any party other than labour and conservative in 2017 the other thing that happened in the late 1990s was the formation of james goldsmith s anti eu vanity project the referendum party insignificant as this was at the time it marked the beginning of a period when the strongest and most vocal opposition to new labour would come from a force determined to make its home in those disreputable far right badlands indeed its location off to the right of respectability is one explanation for the ideological heterogeneity of ukip as david cameron and charles kennedy competed with blair on his chosen terrain of business friendly social liberalism ukip was free to pick up all the rejected right wing policies it could carry and their supporters with them hence too the post brexit meltdown it turns out that this wasn t a whole new political identity melding islamophobia british nationalism social libertarianism and reactionary nostalgia within an overall anti eu framework as exciting as that might have been for political scientists rather it was a loose alliance between believers in islamophobia and leaving the eu british nationalism and leaving the eu smoking in pubs and leaving the eu and bringing back the old money and leaving the eu and the a...
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