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Text of the page (random words):
nism the argument leaps from ai simulating thought to developing skepticism and overconfidence without a clear mechanism clarify why ai simulating thought leads to errors of thought is it due to reinforcement learning that rewards overconfidence specify how this process differs from human cognitive bias or draw a direct analogy to human overconfidence strengthen the transition from ai to human impact the argument begins with ai and ends with toxic personalities but the connection is tenuous are you arguing that ai s simulated confidence influences human users to adopt more entrenched confident positions or that human developers may overestimate ai s capabilities due to its apparent self assurance address potential objections critics may argue that ai doesn t truly believe anything so the notion of ai developing skepticism is misplaced reframe skepticism as a systemic bias rather than an ai s internal state e g ai models trained on self confirming data may amplify apparent confidence over time possible revisions to the argument structure ai simulates thought ai systems are trained to optimize outputs based on probabilistic patterns often producing responses that simulate confidence without genuine understanding simulated confidence can reinforce errors as ai systems generate more confident outputs they may inadvertently reinforce incorrect conclusions creating the appearance of unwarranted certainty reinforcement of errors may lead to overconfidence this simulation of confidence can become a self reinforcing loop where incorrect responses are increasingly presented with apparent conviction human perception of ai s confidence shapes human behavior users and developers may mistake simulated confidence for genuine accuracy adopting the ai s assertions as true and entrenching their own beliefs result erroneous thinking becomes habitual and potentially toxic this dynamic may contribute to the normalization of overconfidence leading to more entrenched dogmatic positions both in ai systems and in those who rely on them would you like to explore specific psychological or cognitive bias frameworks to support this structure or focus more on the technical aspects of ai s confidence calibration tweet follow me categories ai education machine learning philosophy too big to know tagged with ai writing date may 19th 2025 dw be the first to comment april 2 2025 tariffs explained for what seems to be a fact based explanation of the current administrations new taxes tariffs this article seems helpful of course as a world renowned non expert my assessment of what s fact based is not itself fact based because with this administration facts are squishy not stubborn things it is not yet possible to know how it s going to apply the policy according to that first link the primary goal outlined in the memorandum is to restore fairness in these trade relations through tariff equalization meaning the united states would impose reciprocal tariffs on imports from countries with higher rates than those in the united states additionally the memorandum addresses other nonreciprocal practices including unfair discriminatory or extraterritorial taxes like value added taxes nontariff barriers subsidies and onerous regulatory requirements on u s businesses abroad currency devaluation wage suppression and other mercantilist policies that disadvantage u s companies and any other practice that imposes unfair restrictions on market access or creates structural obstacles to fair competition with the united states providing the administration much leeway in assessing what constitutes unfair trade practices the article also discusses the stacking effect one sense of the term is that the new tariffs are on top of any existing tariffs but there seems to be a different sense as well for example hop to 2 25 minutes into this interview with the head of the retail industries retail association who says that the stacking of tariffs on materials e g aluminum as well as on the products that use them could raise the price of a ladder by 70 other sources use 50 total tariffs on some consumer goods as their example whatever it is it s a lot more than bringing down the cost of products mr krugman feel free to jump in to correct me even those who have not yet received our nobel prizes ups apparently mis delivered mine are welcome to fix my errors that s why we have comment tails for info about the absolute nightmare caused by the sheer complexity of assessing these tariffs here s what seems to be a good article now pardon me while i go to the hardware store to stock up on ladders tweet follow me categories business policy politics tagged with business doom politics tariffs date april 2nd 2025 dw be the first to comment march 16 2025 claude fact checks its ai ass a minute ago i posted a post that claude the excellent ai chat bot wrote for me it s about nautical twilight that apparently is a real thing at least i just asked it to fact check what it wrote here s the transcript claude writes let me fact check my blog post about nautical twilight accurate information nautical twilight is defined as when the sun is between 6 and 12 degrees below the horizon during nautical twilight the horizon remains visible while bright stars appear this combination made it ideal for celestial navigation celestial navigation traditionally used a sextant to measure angles between celestial bodies and the horizon the term nautical relates to its usefulness for navigation many marine organisms do change their behavior during twilight periods diel vertical migration the u s naval academy did reinstate celestial navigation training in 2015 after removing it from the curriculum potentially misleading or requiring clarification i didn t specify that nautical twilight happens twice daily both before sunrise morning nautical twilight and after sunset evening nautical twilight photographers often call the period shortly after sunset before sunrise the blue hour but this typically overlaps with civil twilight more than nautical twilight while some marine species do time migrations with light changes i should ve been more specific about which species and behaviors missing context i didn t mention that nautical twilight duration varies significantly by latitude and season i didn t explain that nautical almanacs contain pre calculated data for celestial navigation i didn t clarify that while celestial navigation is still taught gps and other electronic navigation systems are the primary methods used today overall the core information about what nautical twilight is and its historical significance for navigation is accurate but some details could be more precise and additional context would strengthen the piece tweet follow me categories ai knowledge tagged with ai knowledge date march 16th 2025 dw be the first to comment ai is guest writing my blog today prompt to claude write a 500 700 w ord blog post about something you know that is not directly referenced in your training materials it should be of general interest and written in a way that makes the topic clear and engaging assume an intelligent but non specialist reader response the curious case of nautical twilight the navigator s golden hour there s a moment just before sunrise or after sunset when the world lingers between day and night sailors call it nautical twilight a time when the horizon remains visible but stars begin to appear in the sky this in between time has guided mariners for centuries and continues to hold significance even in our gps dominated world what exactly is nautical twilight twilight itself comes in three distinct flavors civil nautical and astronomical each represents a different stage in the sun s journey below the horizon measured by precise angles nautical twilight occurs when the sun sits between 6 and 12 degrees below the horizon during this period the sky isn t completely dark but it s dim enough for the brightest stars to become visible most importantly for navigation the horizon remains distinctly visible as a line separating sea and sky this combination visible horizon plus visible stars created the perfect conditions for traditional celestial navigation a technique that guided ships across vast oceans long before electronic aids existed the navigator s perfect moment before modern instruments sailors determined their position using sextants to measure the angle between celestial bodies and the horizon this technique called shooting the stars required both the stars and horizon to be visible simultaneously precisely what nautical twilight provides the navigator would wait on deck during this brief window sextant in hand ready to take measurements of multiple stars these measurements combined with precise timing and nautical almanacs allowed calculation of latitude and longitude with remarkable accuracy the term itself reveals its origins this wasn t just any twilight but specifically the twilight useful to those who navigate nautical coming from the latin nauticus related to ships or sailing beyond navigation nautical twilight affects more than just navigation marine ecosystems undergo significant changes during this period many marine species time their daily vertical migrations to coincide with these light changes swimming up from the depths to feed when dimmer conditions offer protection from predators while still providing enough light to hunt fishermen have long known this transition triggers feeding frenzies among certain fish species the old adage about fishing being best at dawn and dusk has scientific backing these crepuscular periods from latin crepusculum meaning twilight often mark peak activity for many aquatic creatures photographers chase nautical twilight for its distinctive quality of light what they often call the blue hour the indirect illumination creates deep blue tones and soft shadows that can t be replicated at any other time of day nautical twilight in the modern world while gps has largely replaced celestial navigation for practical purposes nautical twilight remains relevant military vessels and aircraft are still trained in celestial navigation techniques as backup systems should electronic navigation fail some maritime training programs and traditional sailing vessels maintain these skills as part of their curriculum the u s naval academy actually reinstated celestial navigation classes in 2015 after a nearly two decade hiatus recognizing the vulnerability of electronic systems to disruption experiencing nautical twilight you don t need to be a sailor to appreciate nautical twilight the next time you re near water around dawn or dusk pay attention to that specific moment when the first stars appear while the horizon remains clearly visible you re witnessing the same conditions that guided countless mariners across trackless oceans for centuries in our brightly lit modern world these twilight moments offer something increasingly rare a glimpse into how our ancestors experienced the natural rhythms of light and darkness that once governed all human activity this daily transition between worlds not fully day not fully night continues its steady rhythm regardless of whether we notice it a subtle celestial dance that has oriented travelers since humans first ventured beyond the sight of land i then asked claude to fact check what it just wrote results here tweet follow me categories ai blogs knowledge tagged with ai blogs knowledge date march 16th 2025 dw be the first to comment march 9 2025 what does an itch feel like does an itch have any feeling left if you subtract the urge to itch the answer has to be no i think because once the itch is gone there is not sensation left over but an itch is nothing but the urge to scratch this makes itches quite peculiar no i m sober i am just postponing doing some actual work tweet follow me categories philosophy date march 9th 2025 dw be the first to comment march 8 2025 trying out wordland for blogging i m writing this post using wordland it s a web page that clears out all of wordpress s cruft and gives you an interface that s so simple that it s actually enjoyable my friend doc searls compares it to using twitter to write a tweet but without the unpleasant musk of fascism i d add that it s also a bit like medium in hiding options relevant to selected text until you select some text but i echo doc s point that it lowers the hurdle or speed bump of blogging and might actually get me blogging again but mainly for quick posts i could use it for longer posts too and perhaps i will especially if its creator the storied dave winer a pioneer of creating and sharing on the open web lets us add tags i am irrationally committed to tagging it already lets us choose the categories we ve established at wordpress on my first use of it writing this post it s a little thing of beauty tweet follow me categories blogs everythingismiscellaneous free culture free making software social media date march 8th 2025 dw 8 comments january 27 2025 trump considering tooth fairy tariff dionald jehosiphat trump today said that he s considering a tariff on the tooth fairy why does she get to pull all those american teeth we don t even know where she offshores them when asked for specifics about the tariff trump said elon is working on an exact amount but i told him it has to be high so high that children keep up to 90 of their teeth any the tooth fairy yanks out the mouths of the weaklings from now will go into the new strategic teeth reserve we re going to be announcing the president made these comments on his way back from his annual dental checkup at which he said his dentist confirmed that he has the teeth of a newborn babe i can feel them turning into titanium a little bit more every day the president said refusing to provide any further explanation image generated by midjourney prompt by me cc 0 tweet follow me categories broadband censorship egov humor infohistory libraries net neutrality politics reviews video tagged with humor politics trump date january 27th 2025 dw be the first to comment november 6 2024 the opposite of enshittification what is the opposite of cory doctorow s neologism enshittification the seemingly purposeful making worse of a product or situation it s cory doctorow s embettering of his recent cancer diagnosi s cory assures his readers that it s very very likely to turn out to be completely treatable in minimally invasive ways in fact he has already gone through the quite minor procedure and now needs to be vigilant about catching it early if it reappears but in typical doctorow insistence on learning from everything and sharing what he learns he presents us with hints about how to navigate the system and in an especially doctorowian ways suggests that people as privileged as he is and i am should alert the system to the ways in which it has dropped the ball or could do better stay well cory you treasure of worlds tweet 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