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description= 15 posts published by Lars Syll during July 2017;
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the (480), and (227), that (157), are (84), not (63), for (60), debt (57), economics (48), with (48), have (45), but (43), they (40), this (39), public (39), has (37), #theory (36), more (35), och (33), real (33), jul (32), was (31), will (30), 2017 (29), one (29), models (28), att (28), what (27), can (27), may (26), from (26), there (25), economic (23), jan (22), som (22), when (22), their (22), would (21), which (21), economists (21), our (21), world (21), comments (20), empirical (20), some (19), its (19), about (19), government (18), these (18), problem (18), only (17), det (17), all (17), mar (16), apr (16), jun (16), posted (16), been (16), than (16), since (16), assumptions (16), experiments (16), till (16), other (15), aug (15), sep (15), oct (15), nov (15), dec (15), feb (15), how (15), market (15), prices (15), course (15), debts (15), new (15), har (15), time (14), increase (14), most (14), med (14), target (14), made (14), finance (14), 2014 (13), 2016 (13), house (13), interest (13), different (13), taxes (13), also (13), less (13), för (13), mainstream (13), systems (13), because (13), general (13), equilibrium (13), 2012 (12), 2013 (12), 2015 (12), 2018 (12), 2019 (12), 2020 (12), 2021 (12), 2022 (12), 2023 (12), 2024 (12), 2025 (12), being (12), way (12), countries (12), why (12), view (11), science (11), like (11), still (11), economy (11), you (11), effects (11), any (11), theories (11), right (11), good (11), causal (11), universitet (11), 2011 (10), inte (10), especially (10), really (10), although (10), often (10), however (10), system (10), long (10), know (10), true (10), functional (10), could (10), employment (10), ricardo (10), budget (10), theorem (10), population (10), full (9), den (9), housing (9), where (9), out (9), many (9), use (9), modern (9), economies (9), methods (9), even (9), his (9), them (9), without (9), rational (9), assumption (9), share (9), lerner (9), bonds (9), had (9), external (9), comparative (9), validity (9), 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äcker det att med nöd och näppe ha klarat gymnasiet att ge sken av att det inte finns en motsättning mellan kvantitet och kvalitet är oseriöst lärare vid universitet och högskolor har länge uttryckt oro över att studenter är dåligt förberedda har besvärande kunskapsluckor och svårigheter att uttrycka sig i skrift sydsvenskan svenska universitet och högskolor brottas idag med många problem två av de mer akuta är hur man ska hantera en situation med krympande ekonomi och att allt fler av studenterna är dåligt förberedda för högskolestudier varför har det blivit så här yours truly har vid upprepade tillfällen blivit approcherad av media apropå dessa frågor och har då utöver the usual suspects också försökt lyfta en problematik som sällan av rädsla för att inte vara politiskt korrekt lyfts i debatten de senaste femtio åren har vi haft en fullständig explosion av nya studentgrupper som går vidare till universitets och högskolestudier detta är på ett sätt klart glädjande idag har vi lika många doktorander i vårt utbildningssystem som vi hade gymnasister på 1950 talet men denna utbildningsexpansion har tyvärr i mycket skett till priset av försämrade möjligheter för studenterna att tillgodogöra sig högskoleutbildningens kompetenskrav många utbildningar har fallit till föga och sänkt kraven tyvärr är de studenter vi får till universitet och högskolor över lag allt sämre rustade för sina studier omstruktureringen av skolan i form av decentralisering avreglering och målstyrning har tvärtemot politiska utfästelser inte levererat i takt med den eftergymnasiala utbildningsexpansionen har en motsvarande kunskapskontraktion hos stora studentgrupper ägt rum den skolpolitik som lett till denna situation slår hårdast mot dem den utger sig för att värna de med litet eller inget kulturkapital i bagaget hemifrån mot denna bakgrund är det egentligen anmärkningsvärt att man inte i större utsträckning problematiserat vad utbildningsexplosionen i sig kan leda till eftersom vi för femtio år sedan vid våra universitet utbildade enbart en bråkdel av befolkningen är det ingen djärv gissning under antagande av att begåvning i en population är åtminstone approximativt normalfördelad att lejonparten av dessa studenter begåvningsmässigt låg till höger om mittpunkten på normalfördelningskurvan om vi idag tar in fem gånger så många studenter på våra högskolor och universitet kan vi under samma antagande knappast räkna med att en lika stor del av dessa utgörs av individer som ligger till höger om normalfördelningskurvans mittpunkt rimligen torde detta ceteris paribus innebära att i takt med att proportionen av befolkningen som går vidare till högskola och universitet ökar så ökar svårigheterna för många av dessa att uppnå traditionellt högt ställda akademiska kravnivåer här borde i så fall statsmakterna ha ytterligare en stark anledning till att öka resurserna till högskola och universitet istället för att som idag bedriva utbildningar på mager kost och med få lärarledda föreläsningar i rekordstora studentgrupper med nya kategorier av studenter som i allt större utsträckning rekryteras från studieovana hem är det svårt att se hur vi med knappare resursramar ska kunna lösa dilemmat med högre krav på meritmässigt allt mer svagpresterande studenter the conundrum of unknown unknowns 24 jul 2017 at 17 18 posted in economics 2 comments short term weather forecasting is possible because most of the factors that determine tomorrow s weather are in a sense already there but when you look further ahead you encounter the intractable problem that in non linear systems small changes in initial conditions can lead to cumulatively larger and larger changes in outcomes over time in these circumstances imperfect knowledge may be no more useful than no knowledge at all much the same is true in economics and business what gross domestic product will be tomorrow is like tomorrow s rain or the 1987 hurricane more or less already there tomorrow s output is already in production tomorrow s sales are already on the shelves tomorrow s business appointments already made big data will help us analyse this we will know more accurately and more quickly what gdp is we will be more successful in predicting output in the next quarter and our estimates will be subject to fewer revisions big data can help us understand the past and the present but it can help us understand the future only to the extent that the future is in some relevant way contained in the present that requires a constancy of underlying structure that is true of some physical processes but can never be true of a world that contains hitler and napoleon henry ford and steve jobs a world in which important decisions or discoveries are made by processes that are inherently unpredictable and not susceptible to quantitative description john kay the central problem with the present machine learning and big data hype is that so many falsely think that they can get away with analysing real world phenomena without any commitment to theory but data never speaks for itself without a prior statistical set up there actually are no data at all to process and using a machine learning algorithm will only produce what you are looking for theory matters when ignorance is bliss 22 jul 2017 at 22 49 posted in economics 3 comments the production function has been a powerful instrument of miseducation the student of economic theory is taught to write q f l k where l is a quantity of labor k a quantity of capital and q a rate of output of commodities he is instructed to assume all workers alike and to measure l in man hours of labor he is told something about the index number problem in choosing a unit of output and then he is hurried on to the next question in the hope that he will forget to ask in what units k is measured before he ever does ask he has become a professor and so sloppy habits of thought are handed on from one generation to the next joan robinson the production function and the theory of capital 1953 the ultimate insider 21 jul 2017 at 20 27 posted in varia comments off on the ultimate insider one of my absolute favourite movies great true story marvelous actors russell crowe al pacino christopher plummer fabulous music by e g lisa gerrard and jan garbarek what so many critiques of economics gets right 21 jul 2017 at 12 39 posted in economics 2 comments yours truly had a post up the other day on john rapley s twilight of the money gods in the main i think rapley is right in his attack on contemporary economics and its priesthood although he often seems to forget that there are yes it s true more than one approach in economics and that his critique mainly pertains to mainstream neoclassical economics noah smith however is not too happy about the book there are certainly some grains of truth in this standard appraisal i ve certainly lobbed my fair share of criticism at the econ profession over the years but the problem with critiques like rapley s is that they offer no real way forward for the discipline simply calling for humility and methodological diversity accomplishes little instead pundits should focus on what is going right in the economics discipline because there are some very good things happening first economists have developed some theories that really work a good scientific theory makes testable predictions that apply to situations other than those that motivated the creation of the theory slowly econ is building up a repertoire of these gems one of them is auction theory another example is matching theory which has made it a lot easier to get an organ transplant second economics is becoming a lot more empirical focusing more on examining the data than on constructing yet more theories noah smith maintains that new imaginative empirical methods such as natural experiments field experiments lab experiments rcts help us to answer questions concerning the validity of economic theories and models yours truly begs to differ although one of course has to agree with noah s view that discounting empirical evidence is not the right way to solve economic issues when looked at carefully there are in fact few real reasons to share his optimism on this so called empirical revolution in economics field studies and experiments face the same basic problem as theoretical models they are built on rather artificial conditions and have difficulties with the trade off between internal and external validity the more artificial conditions the more internal validity but also less external validity the more we rig experiments field studies models to avoid the confounding factors the less the conditions are reminicent of the real target system you could of course discuss the field vs experiments vs theoretical models in terms of realism but the nodal issue is not about that but basically about how economists using different isolation strategies in different nomological machines attempt to learn about causal relationships i have strong doubts on the generalizability of all three research strategies because the probability is high that causal mechanisms are different in different contexts and that lack of homogeneity and invariance doesn t give us warranted export licenses to the real societies or economies if we see experiments or field studies as theory tests or models that ultimately aspire to say something about the real target system then the problem of external validity is central and was for a long time also a key reason why behavioural economists had trouble getting their research results published assume that you have examined how the work performance of chinese workers a is affected by b treatment how can we extrapolate generalize to new samples outside the original population e g to the us how do we know that any replication attempt succeeds how do we know when these replicated experimental results can be said to justify inferences made in samples from the original population if for example p a b is the conditional density function for the original sample and we are interested in doing a extrapolative prediction of e p a b how can we know that the new sample s density function is identical with the original unless we can give some really good argument for this being the case inferences built on p a b is not really saying anything on that of the target system s p a b as i see it this is the heart of the matter external validity and generalization is founded on the assumption that we could make inferences based on p a b that is exportable to other populations for which p a b applies sure if one can convincingly show that p and p are similar enough the problems are perhaps surmountable but arbitrarily just introducing functional specification restrictions of the type invariance and homogeneity is at least for an epistemological realist far from satisfactory and often it is unfortunately exactly this that i see when i take part of mainstream neoclassical economists models experiments field studies by this i do not mean to say that empirical methods per se are so problematic that they can never be used on the contrary i am basically though not without reservations in favour of the increased use of experiments and field studies within economics not least as an alternative to completely barren bridge less axiomatic deductive theory models my criticism is more about aspiration levels and what we believe that we can achieve with our mediational epistemological tools and methods in the social sciences many experimentalists claim that it is easy to replicate experiments under different conditions and therefore a fortiori easy to test the robustness of experimental results but is it really that easy if in the example given above we run a test and find that our predictions were not correct what can we conclude the b works in china but not in the us or that b works in a backward agrarian society but not in a post modern service society that b worked in the field study conducted in year 2008 but not in year 2016 population selection is almost never simple had the problem of external validity only been about inference from sample to population this would be no critical problem but the really interesting inferences are those we try to make from specific labs experiments fields to specific real world situations institutions structures that we are interested in understanding or causally to explain and then the population problem is more difficult to tackle the increasing use of natural and quasi natural experiments in economics during the last couple of decades has led not only noah smith but several prominent economists to triumphantly declare it as a major step on a recent path toward empirics where instead of being a deductive philosophy economics is now increasingly becoming an inductive science in randomized trials the researchers try to find out the causal effects that different variables of interest may have by changing circumstances randomly a procedure somewhat on average equivalent to the usual ceteris paribus assumption besides the fact that on average is not always good enough it amounts to nothing but hand waving to simpliciter assume without argumentation that it is tenable to treat social agents and relations as homogeneous and interchangeable entities randomization is used to basically allow the econometrician to treat the population as consisting of interchangeable and homogeneous groups treatment and control the regression models one arrives at by using randomized trials tell us the average effect that variations in variable x has on the outcome variable y without having to explicitly control for effects of other explanatory variables r s t etc etc everything is assumed to be essentially equal except the values taken by variable x limiting model assumptions in economic science always have to be closely examined since if we are going to be able to show that the mechanisms or causes that we isolate and handle in our models are stable in the sense that they do not change when we export them to our target systems we have to be able to show that they do not only hold under ceteris paribus conditions and a fortiori only are of limited value to our understanding explanations or predictions of real economic systems real world social systems are not governed by stable causal mechanisms or capacities the kinds of laws and relations that econometrics has established are laws and relations about entities in models that presuppose causal mechanisms being atomistic and additive when causal mechanisms operate in real world social target systems they only do it in ever changing and unstable combinations where the whole is more than a mechanical sum of parts if economic regularities obtain they do it as a rule only because we engineered them for that purpose outside man made nomological machines they are rare or even non existant i also think that most randomistas really underestimate the heterogeneity problem it does not just turn up as an e...
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