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a lot of effort should be placed on defining this damage function in conclusion the attributable cost method is not appropriate to apply when the event must be defined with an arbitrary threshold on a variable that imposes costs on a continuum rather than flipping costs on or off it should only be applied if the event is a real physical phenomenon that can be said to either occur or not or if the threshold is physically meaningful i e enough rain to overwhelm a levee applying the attributable costs method likely overestimated the economic damages from harvey by a factor of about 5 if the estimates of wehner m sampson c 2021 are taken at face value furthermore if one wishes to compare the numbers produced from these types of analyses to existing annual mean damage estimates e g from iams the damages from extremes have to be weighed by their low probability of occurrence in any given year in this case not doing so could cause an overestimate of the annual mean costs of human influence on the climate by two to three orders of magnitude this is a very important topic and it s crucial that the methods used to address it are as accurate as possible i hope this post serves as constructive criticism and possibly helps inform future research in this area appendix since writing this i see that several of the authors of the frame et al 2020 study have published a paper perkins et al 2022 walking back some of their claims and or urging caution in interpreting the results of the attributable cost method it looks like the authors of this study would agree with several of the points i have raised here however i don t see an explicit repudiation of the reported results of frame et al 2020 or any effort to correct any media coverage of the results references allen m 2003 liability for climate change nature 421 891 892 brown p t 2016 reporting on global warming a study in headlines physics today doi 10 1063 pt 3 3310 frame d j wehner m f noy i et al 2020 the economic costs of hurricane harvey attributable to climate change climatic change 160 271 281 https doi org 10 1007 s10584 020 02692 8 levin m 1953 the occurrence of lung cancer in man acta unio int contra cancrum 9 531 541 perkins kirkpatrick s e et al 2022 environ res lett 17 024009 https doi org 10 1088 1748 9326 ac44c8 risser m d wehner m f 2017 attributable human induced changes in the likelihood and magnitude of the observed extreme precipitation during hurricane harvey geophysical research letters 44 12 457 12 464 https doi org 10 1002 2017gl075888 oldenborgh gjv wiel kvd sebastian a singh r arrighi j otto f haustein k li s vecchi g cullen h 2017 attribution of extreme rainfall from hurricane harvey august 2017 environ res lett 12 124009 wehner m sampson c 2021 attributable human induced changes in the magnitude of flooding in the houston texas region during hurricane harvey climatic change 166 20 https doi org 10 1007 s10584 021 03114 z wilks d 2011 statistical methods in the atmospheric sciences 3 rd addition elsevier posted in climate change tagged climate economics extreme weather 8 comments meteorology and climatology of wind and solar droughts posted on september 28 2021 by ptbrown31 we have a paper out on a field of increasing importance in meteorology the analysis of synoptic scale extreme reductions in wind and solar power energy resources i e wind and solar droughts if you like talks more than papers here is a talk i gave to woods hole oceanographic institution on the research more details are below but first some background two broad trends make it so that our society s energy consumption is being impacted progressively more by the weather 1 increasingly more and more of society s energy consumption is coming via electricity e g the electrification of transportation and water space heating 2 increasingly more and more of that electricity is being generated from weather dependent resources like wind and solar power thus as wind and solar power resources become more indispensable for society a full scientific understanding of their droughts may approach the importance of understanding droughts in other resources like precipitation this concern has inspired a lot of work on the general topic of the co variability of wind and solar power resources but less work has been done on the atmospheric circulation patterns responsible for generating synoptic scale reductions in wind and solar power resources both independent of each other and in conjunction these extreme weather events have been occurring under the radar since the dawn of meteorology but they have not received significant scientific attention because of their historical lack of impact however this situation is now rapidly changing as market forces and legal mandates increase the penetration of wind and solar power generation in electricity grids around the world this is exemplified in the recent situation in europe where electricity prices spiked in part because of reduced wind power supply in our study we focus on the meteorological causes of these extreme events over a case study region of western north america with an emphasis on synoptic scale atmospheric circulations we found that perhaps not surprisingly wind droughts are typically associated with high pressure systems and solar droughts are typically associated with low pressure systems and thus wind and solar resources should be anti correlated at synoptic weather scales this along with the fact that wind and solar resources are anticorrelated at the seasonal timescale supports the notion that including both wind and solar power in an energy resource portfolio reduces risk in the same way that diversifying a stock portfolio does more specifically wind drought events over the western us were associated with a thermal mid level ridge warm core high centered over british columbia solar drought events were associated with a thermal mid level trough cold core low off of the west coast of north america furthermore we found that the synoptic dynamic meteorology of these phenomena was interpretable through classic quasi geostrophic theory this is evidence that these droughts are manifestations of well known and well understood weather patterns and are not the result of some unexpected or exotic mechanism that hopefully means that wind and solar droughts should be as forecastable as any synoptic weather phenomena on daily to seasonal timescales and it suggests that they should be represented reasonably well by courser resolution climate models we also find some indication that both wind droughts and solar droughts are slightly associated with positive el niño and or positive pdo situations especially in their most extreme manifestations supp fig 17 j k l finally this research also supports the notion that there is value in pooling renewable energy resources over areas large enough to encompass the full wavelength of typical rossby waves which implies that in the us there are significant benefits in moving towards a continental scale super grid connected by high voltage transmission for more on this research topic see here https weatherclimatehumansystems org research if you are interested in collaborating on research along these lines please feel free to contact me posted in uncategorized 1 comment claims in how climate migration will reshape america vs observational data posted on october 3 2020 by ptbrown31 a few people asked me about the accuracy of a recent ny times magazine ny times daily podcast story how climate migration will reshape america it contains plenty of interesting discussion on e g property insurance under a changing climate but it is very loose with the facts on current climate change in the us and it continuously errs on the side of hyperbole and exaggeration below i take a look at observational data corresponding to some of the claims in the article overall i think the data gives a very different impression of the state of climate change in the us than does the rhetoric in the piece this is important because this kind of exaggeration undermines the credibility of the ny times ny times daily podcast at a time when people really need journalism they can trust furthermore the issue of human migration under climate change is important and thus it needs to be covered in a serious and fact based way we cannot afford for this kind of sloppiness to give people an excuse to dismiss the entire premise most of this piece s claims are about the future it is difficult to fact check claims about the future so i will just look at a few claims that can be easily put in context against historical observational data claim august besieged california with a heat unseen in generations context on ca heat august 2020 was the fourth hottest month on record in california it s average temperature was 79 f not as hot as july 2018 79 6 f july 2006 79 3 f or july 1931 79 5 f so it was hot but not unseen in generations claim i am far from the only american facing such questions this summer has seen more fires more heat more storms all of it making life increasingly untenable in larger areas of the nation context on fires the nation has not seen more fires through august but when september numbers are tallied this will indeed go up and likely will set a record though it is important to note that there is not an obvious nationwide long term trend in wildfires more context on fires it is perhaps worth mentioning that global annual area burned has decreased over the past 20 years this illustrates that thus far climate is not a first order influence on area burned and its influence can be totally overwhelmed by other factors https www weatherclimatehumansystems org faq on fires humans and global change context on us heat it is true that this summer was hot in the us it was the 4 th warmest on record behind 2011 2012 and 1936 more context on heat rather than looking at summer means we can look at indices that measure attributes of heatwaves like the warm spell duration index here s what that looks like for the us the 1920s and 1930s had higher values that what we have seen recently context on storms it is not clear what is meant by storms but maximum 1 day precipitation might be a pretty good proxy for what most people think of as storms there have been increases in this metric over recent decades but we are not at a historical maxima more context on storms the author could also be referring to tropical storms below is a measure of tropical storms making landfall in the united states we can see some increase in recent decades claim already droughts regularly threaten food crops across the west context on droughts the brown bars are the area in the us that are much more arid than normal the us west has indeed seen bad droughts in the 2000s and 2010s more on crops below more context on droughts it is worth noting that we do not see long term trends in droughts over the us overall claim while destructive floods inundate towns and fields from the dakotas to maryland context on floods here is the long term change in an index of maximum 5 day precipitation while not a direct measure of floods this can be thought of as a rough proxy by this measure we are not currently at a historical maxima claim rising seas and increasingly violent hurricanes are making thousands of miles of american shoreline nearly uninhabitable context on rising seas global sea levels have risen about 3 inches since the mid 1990s this will be a major problem as it continues but does 3 inches plus the change in tropical cyclones shown above amount to thousands of miles of shoreline nearly uninhabitable sorry it does not http sealevel colorado edu claim let s start with some basics across the country it s going to get hot buffalo may feel in a few decades like tempe ariz does today context this is absolutely false the average daily high temperature in july in buffalo ny is near 79 f the average daily high temperature in july in tempe arizona is near 106 f that s a 27 f difference buffalo is projected to warm by roughly 2 3 f under a medium emissions scenario by 2050 and by 5 f by 2100 so that would mean that the author claimed a warming of something like 27 f in a few decades when our best estimate is something closer to 10 of that claim the great plains states today provide nearly half of the nation s wheat sorghum and cattle and much of its corn the farmers and ranchers there export that food to africa south america and asia crop yields though will drop sharply with every degree of warming context on crop yields historically it has warmed and crop yields have only increased for one thing there has been little detrimental climate stress on us crops so far as measured by indices like the crop moisture stress index further context on crop yields yields of corn and other crops have only increased globally because changes in technology and agricultural practices have vastly outweighed any negative impact from climate https ourworldindata org crop yields claim it was the kind of thing that might never have been possible if california s autumn winds weren t getting fiercer and drier every year context on ca autumn winds the most infamous fire enhancing autumn winds in ca are the santa ana winds they are not increasing every year and projections suggest that their occurrence will be less frequent not more frequent under climate change https agupubs onlinelibrary wiley com doi abs 10 1029 2018gl080261 claim the 2018 national climate assessment also warns that the u s economy overall could contract by 10 percent context this is a 10 contraction relative to a no climate change scenario not 10 contraction relative to today that distinction makes a huge difference it means that the projection says that if gdp were to increase by 100 without climate change over the next 80 years very conservative estimate then climate change would cause gdp to only increase by 90 claim once you accept that climate change is fast making large parts of the united states nearly uninhabitable context i am sorry but this is just not reconcilable with the data above i could go on with other claims made in this piece but i ll stop here for now you should get the idea it paints a picture of current climate change in the us that is very different than the story that is told from looking at the actual observational data and all the errors are in the direction of overstating the negative impact on the us today the editors at ny times magazine the daily podcast must think that being cavalier with the facts is ok because sending the right message on climate change is more important than accuracy i could not disagree more at a time when trust in institutions like the new york times is faltering and the right calls them fake news they cannot afford to confirm that narrative it makes it too easy for those who want to be dismissive of climate change to feel vindicated in that belief plots above are mostly from https ncdc noaa gov cag and https climde...
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