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d by first facts are change from year ago values on raising rates the fed was behind the curve there are three dates to remember march 2020 march 2021 and march 2022 march 2020 covid the fed lowered the interest rate to zero because covid was upon us march 2021 powell warned that inflation moderately above 2 percent was coming march 2022 one year after powell warned of inflation and with the annual rate of inflation at 8 5 the fed decided it was time to start raising the interest rate consider that whole two year period from march of 2020 to march of 2022 we had two straight years with interest rates at zero stimulating the economy out of a pandemic stupor at the one year mark the fed chairman warned that inflation was on the way then a year after that warning and with inflation at an outrageous 8 5 the fed decided it was time to begin raising interest rates to fight inflation two more dates to remember june 2022 and june 2023 june 2022 the fed finally decided to start raising interest rates in march 2022 three months later in june 2022 inflation peaked by july it was coming down the economy did not wait the economy responded within three months it was the fed that dragged its feet june 2023 exactly one year after it peaked in june 2022 inflation hit a hard bottom at 3 0 in june of 2023 it bounced back up to 3 7 in august of that year then settled down to around 3 3 it is almost as if the economy found a natural inflation target to go along with the natural rate of unemployment since june 2023 the average of the 12 annual rates of inflation from june 2023 to may 2024 is 3 3 the highest of the 12 annual rates is 3 7 the lowest is 3 0 and excel shows a linear trend line that slopes ever so slightly downward suggesting that future rates will be lower but i don t predict on lowering rates the fed is behind the curve there is one more date worth noting august 2023 for two months after inflation hit the hard bottom in june 2023 the fed continued to raise interest rates since august the interest rate has remained unchanged at 5 33 the most recent reading for may 2024 is still unchanged at 5 33 high enough that inflation is trending ever so slightly down low interest rates encourage economic growth but can stimulate inflation raising rates reduces inflation but can slow the economy the unemployment graph at fred shows gradual increase in 2023 and 2024 unemployment is rising that being the case interest rates are probably too high it is difficult to see much detail in the fred graph because of the covid recession and 2020 s monster increase in unemployment to get a closer look i brought the data since 2022 into excel and looked at the trend since january 2023 figure 2 2 the rate of unemployment detail view jan 2022 to april 2024 linear trend line based on jan 2023 to april 2024 trend line extended to december 2024 the small red dots indicate the data used to calculate the trend source data https fred stlouisfed org graph g 1oejn view the excel file at dropbox the detail view makes it clear the rate of unemployment shows increase since early 2023 as i figured it if the trend continued the rate of unemployment would reach 4 in september 2024 before the november elections and likely go above 4 1 in december but fred came out with updated data before i came out with this post fred now shows unemployment already at 4 as of may 2024 after the 7 june data release the one area where the fed has not stalled economic progress is in letting unemployment go up but of course that means it has dragged its feet when it comes to reducing interest rates to prevent recession moneywatch of 12 june 2024 reports the central bank s rate policies over the next several months could also have consequences for the presidential race though the unemployment rate is a low 4 hiring is robust and consumers continue to spend many voters have taken a dour view of the economy under president joe biden in large part that s because prices remain much higher than they were before the pandemic struck in 2020 it s good they bring up consequences for the presidential race but at this point we are late in the election interference game it was the fed s refusal to raise interest rates above zero for a year that allowed inflation to rise to 9 and did such damage to biden s shot at re election and when you look at how the fed dragged its feet for so long before without raising interest rates at all it becomes obvious that the delay was almost certainly a scheme of planned election interference now when interest rates should be coming down the fed is dragging its feet again as unemployment rises at some point it will be too late to prevent the approaching recession don t let this happen and don t let anyone get away with it summary in march of 2020 to support our economy and keep it growing the federal reserve reduced interest rates in response to covid one year later in march of 2021 jerome powell issued a warning inflation is coming another year passed and during that year the predicted inflation came to pass after a full year of rising inflation the fed at last started to raise interest rates in march of 2022 within three months of that first increase inflation peaked and started to fall within three months the economy has been responding in a timely manner the federal reserve has not this is why the inflation was as bad as it turned out to be because the fed chose not to respond until inflation had been rising for a year the fed could have nipped inflation in the bud but failed to do so it failed to respond in a timely manner if that s not bad enough we now have a follow up problem interest rates are high and they remain high even though inflation is far down from the peak once again the economy has responded promptly and the fed has not the economy responded promptly with inflation falling to 3 by june of 2023 and settling down since that time to a trend that is comparable to a 3 3 inflation target as the graph up top shows but the federal reserve has not responded by reducing interest rates not even once in the year since june 2023 the fed is again dragging its feet interest rates must come down so that a recession can be avoided but the fed appears to be prepared to wait until the recession is upon us in full force and only then will it be ready to reduce interest rates jerome powell has said over and over again in the past year that the fed is waiting for inflation to come all the way down to where it fits the 2 target so far inflation has continued to behave as if the target is 3 3 but the fed continues to hold out for 2 so our economy continues to move toward recession at june 15 2024 1 comment email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels 3 inflation target throwback tuesday june 11 2024 throwback part 1 nixon for context hi art here i renamed this series of posts from throwback to the plan i m keeping the throwback link for this message and moving the content to a new link the new link is https econcrit blogspot com 2024 06 the plan part 1 html if you share the link please share the new one after a day or two i will keep the above message and delete the content below rule of thumb if a first term president s term ends with a good strong economy he gets a second term in how richard nixon pressured arthur burns evidence from the nixon tapes burton a abrams writes in nixon s 1962 book six crises he recounts that arthur burns called on him in march 1960 to warn him that the economy was likely to dip before the november election nixon writes that burns urged strongly that everything possible be done to avert this development he urgently recommended that two steps be taken immediately their idea was to improve the economy enough that vice president nixon would win the election and take his turn as president when eisenhower s second term was up today this would be called election interference no steps were taken abrams continues herbert stein who was a member of the council of economic advisers from the start of nixon s first term and became chairman at the start of 1972 confirms that nixon blamed a modest rise in the unemployment rate as one of the reasons he lost the 1960 election thus our rule of thumb again abrams evidence from the nixon tapes now available to researchers shows that president richard nixon pressured the chairman of the federal reserve arthur burns to engage in expansionary monetary policies in the run up to the 1972 election here the election interference appears to be driven by nixon in their 1960 encounter it seems to have been burns s idea at least that s how nixon remembered it for six crises in both cases 1960 and 1972 the plan was to improve the economy enough to keep the incumbent or his party in power there is something almost heartwarming about nixon s interference because in both cases the idea was to improve the economy both times however the interference was conceived as a way to assure the election or re election of nixon both times nixon was engaged in election interference intended to benefit nixon from nixonomics how the game plan went wrong by rowland evans jr and robert d novak in atlantic monthly july 1971 1 during that difficult decade after his defeat in 1960 aides and close friends had heard nixon say privately time after time that had president eisenhower only taken his and arthur burns s advice early in 1960 and moved rapidly toward stimulating the economy he not jack kennedy would have been elected president the implication not quite stated flatly was that richard nixon if he had the power would never again go into a presidential election with the economy in a state of deflation note 1 as reprinted in stabilizing america s economy the reference shelf vol 44 no 2 edited by george a nikolaieff evans and novak show nixon fully committed to election interference more dirt on nixon this from the federal reserve chairman section of wikipedia s article on arthur burns nixon later blamed his defeat in 1960 in part on fed policy and the resulting tight credit conditions and slow growth after finally winning the presidential election of 1968 nixon named burns to the fed chair in 1970 with instructions to ensure easy access to credit when nixon was running for reelection in 1972 later when burns resisted negative press about him was planted in newspapers and under the threat of legislation to dilute the fed s influence burns and other governors succumbed burns s relationship with nixon was often rocky reflecting in his diary about a 1971 meeting attended by himself nixon treasury secretary john connally the chairman of the council of economic advisors and the director of the bureau of the budget burns wrote the president looked wild talked like a desperate man fulminated with hatred against the press took some of us to task apparently meaning me or chairman of the council of economic advisors paul mccracken or both for not putting a gay and optimistic face on every piece of economic news however discouraging propounded the theory that confidence can be best generated by appearing confident and coloring if need be the news wikipedia also includes a detail which seems to have been omitted from all the president s men the great alan j pakula movie starring robert redford and dustin hoffman at the watergate break in of 1972 the burglars were found carrying 6300 of sequentially numbered 100 bills the fed lied to reporter bob woodward as to the source of the bills burns stonewalled congressional investigations about them and issued a directive to all fed offices prohibiting any discussion of the subject watergate was just one more example of nixon tampering with elections that time however it did not include improving the economy watch the movie watch all the president s men improving the economy as a form of election interference might seem by comparison a good idea but when winning the election intrudes on economic policy the economy will lose every time and the incidental considerations like lying to bob woodward stonewalling congress and prohibiting discussion are but a nixon sampler of the damage created by such manipulations by the way richard nixon and donald trump were pen pals in the emerging republican majority 1969 kevin p phillips identifies the two principal architects of the emerging republican majority richard nixon and john mitchell among that emerged group then nixon s sleazebag behavior is apparently seen as worthy of emulation from wikipedia s arthur f burns article burns served as fed chairman from february 1970 until the end of january 1978 he has a reputation of having been overly influenced by political pressure in his monetary policy decisions during his time as chairman 13 footnote 13 reads bartlett bruce 2004 04 28 more politics at the fed national review there is this link http www nationalreview com articles 210446 more politics fed bruce bartlett that link is broken this one works https www nationalreview com 2004 04 more politics fed ridhancock the link turns up more politics at the fed at national review attributed to ridhancock bruce bartlett is acknowledged in a note below the article i will refer to the article as the bartlett article the bartlett article says nixon wanted to keep monetary policy loose in order to make sure the economy was robust going into the election this led to the imposition of wage and price controls in august 1971 that paragraph concludes while everyone knew they would not work for long the controls reduced inflation enough to keep monetary policy expansive through november 1972 which was all that mattered now that sounds like nixon getting elected was be all and end all the bartlett article dated april 28 2004 opens with this paragraph rising inflation and interest rates although still low by historical standards are starting to get the attention of economists it is becoming harder and harder to find an economist who doesn t think the federal reserve needs to tighten monetary policy soon however fed officials continue to say that unemployment low capacity utilization and strong productivity growth argue against tightening at this time they may be right but one cannot help but suspect that politics is also playing a role once you see election interference in nixon it is easy to see elsewhere the article concludes with these thoughts the reason this nixon burns history is relevant today 2004 is because the fed is under increasing pressure to tighten monetary policy while there is no evidence of white house pressure to keep monetary policy easy one can assume that it will not be displeased if the fed avoids tightening before election day fed chairman alan greenspan is well respected and no one believes he would knowingly use monetary policy for political purposes however the longer he waits to tighten monetary policy the more people are going to ask whether politics is playing a role once you see it in nixon you see it everywhere bartlett or ridha...
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