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ai stack has emerged with large language models and other important models like audio imagery video etc operating in the cloud with well documented and supported apis that are available to developers to build on and possibly even more important is the emergence of very good open source ai models that in many cases can outperform the closed source models with the ai stack well developed and supported we are moving into the application era of ai much like the browser brought us the application era of the web and the iphone brought us the application era of the mobile device this is a big deal while in 2023 everyone was rightly focused on the large language models like openai anthropic gemini llama etc we will see new ai first applications emerge in 2024 that will start to move the focus and the conversation up the stack and we will see legacy applications embrace ai to make their products better and to remain competitive with the ai first disrupters but like web3 before it and the internet before that this new technology will bring litigation and regulatory scrutiny that will raise and ultimately resolve many important issues let s start with litigation should i as the author of over 9 000 blog posts that have been used to train these large language models be entitled to some of the revenue they will make openai generated over 1 5bn in revenue in 2023 should i get some of that and do i need to join the new york times and other publishers in suing to get some of it that is just one of many issues that these ai models have raised and they will need to be resolved i believe it will take years of litigation and regulation before we understand what the appropriate business model and norms are for the ai economy but fortunately like web3 and the internet before it the tech sector will not wait for those issues to be resolved trillions of dollars are being invested in the ai sector and that will continue for as far as this eye can see innovation never waits for rules and regulations but it eventually gets them that s a good segue to web3 which has seen a full frontal attack from regulators and lawmakers in the us and elsewhere 2023 was the year that web3 held its ground and 2024 will be the year that regulators and lawmakers come to terms with web3 we will finally start to see regulatory clarity emerge in the us like has happened in the eu and elsewhere but as important as regulatory clarity is to web3 it pales in importance with the need for a chatgpt moment for blockchain based technologies ai developed for over forty years before its coming out party i think it will take web3 less than half that time satoshi gave us the playbook to build a decentralized internet stack back in 2008 and i feel quite confident that we will have massive mainstream applications running on this decentralized stack well before 2028 i think we will see mainstream decentralized applications emerge in 2024 as we now have inexpensive and fast transactions and simpler user interfaces vitalik wrote a nice piece about this a few days ago ai and web3 are two sides of the same coin ai will help make web3 usable for mainstream applications and web3 will help us trust ai together they will lead to a more powerful more resilient more trusted and more equitable internet but none of that will matter if we don t accelerate our focus on our warming planet earth continues to warm at a faster rate than has been predicted causing increasing pain and suffering across the globe it is hard for humans to react to something that is thirty years out it is a lot easier for humans to react to something that is happening to them right now so this pain and suffering will force an acceleration of the energy transition from carbon to clean energy the energy transition is being powered by innovation in energy generation renewables nuclear etc energy storage batteries storage networks etc and smarter energy distribution in the process of rebuilding the infrastructure and systems by which we power this planet we are also modernizing the energy stack and making it decentralized modular and programmable if you think you ve seen this movie before you have and the good news is that there could even be a happy ending if we move fast enough to make this transition happen in the next twenty years the new energy stack has been coming together for the last decade but slowly and very much under the radar i believe that 2024 will be a coming out party for the new energy stack and i am excited to be investing in this area and helping to make it happen so if we have healthier capital markets and more innovation than ever what is up with the venture capital ecosystem well that s not such a happy story limited partners the folks that provide the capital to the venture capital funds have taken a beating over the last few years and are cautious right now in addition we are seeing many large firms scale back or even shut down and new firms are struggling to raise funds this is a rationalization of a sector that got very big very fast in the last decade and will need time to find a new normal because venture funds have a ten year life but often take much longer to fully liquidate the venture capital business changes more slowly than the businesses it funds i think we are a couple years into a transition that will take at least the first half of this decade to play out so while the capital markets will likely be robust in 2024 i do not expect that venture capital investing and venture capital fund formation to grow that much year over year in 2024 i think both will grow but not nearly as fast as the sectors that surround vc to sum it all up we are in a golden era of innovation with ai and web3 leading to a new more intelligent resilient and decentralized internet and the emergence of a new energy stack which will power our lives new ways that will not continue to warm our planet there are opportunities every which way i look to back founders and founding teams building these new technologies i think 2024 is going to be a terrific year for tech vc technology web tech dec 31 2023 what happened in 2023 i like to bookend the new year holiday with two posts one looking back at the year that is ending what happened and one looking forward to the year ahead what will happen this is the first of these two posts the second one will run tomorrow i ended my what will happen in 2023 with this advice buckle up hang tough and be smart what i did not predict in that post although we had been discussing the possibility internally at usv for several months at the time i wrote it was the failure of silicon valley bank and several other banks that focused on the startup and web3 sectors i feel like that moment which hit us in march marked the bottom of the downturn although it has taken at least the rest of the year to work through the carnage and there is still a bit more to come that look forward post also missed the biggest new thing in tech chat gpt which had initially launched about a month before i wrote it that was a big miss as 2023 will most certainly be remembered as the year that ai went mainstream with consumers thanks to chat gpt and other consumer interfaces to large ai models to some extent these two things are related the end of the 2022 2023 tech startup downturn happened when two things came together the first is the end of a period of rising interest rates that had sent the stock market and broader capital markets reeling the second is the emergence of a new tech megatrend ai which has been developing in front of our very eyes for as long as i have been in tech so that is over forty years now but before something can become mainstream it takes a consumer interface that allows everyone to see the power of the technology firsthand that thing was chat gpt and it will rightly take its place along with the iphone netscape the macintosh and other consumer products that brought a new technology into the mainstream and provided for a wave of technology innovation that followed of course a lot of other things happened in tech startups and web3 in 2023 but these two things are the ones that matter the most markets have settled down and are poised to move higher and we ve got a new megatrend that will drive innovation investing and the economy so while it was a very difficult year i also think 2023 was an incredibly important year and sets us up for an exciting new period in tech more on that tomorrow vc technology web tech dec 20 2023 my year end playlist every year i put together a playlist at the end of the year with some of the new music i found and got into most of these songs are under the radar which is my favorite kind of music so i hope you find something new that you like in here music my music oct 30 2023 sleep i got an oura ring a couple of years ago and have been working on improving my sleep and sleep habits ever since for much of my adult life i have been a poor sleeper i have always been able to fall asleep quickly but i have been plagued by two sleep issues the first is waking up in the middle of the night and not being able to get back to sleep the second is waking up early like 4 30 5am and being wide awake so i ve been working on those two things i still wake up in the middle of the night my oura ring tells me that i was up from around 4am to 4 30am last night what i ve learned about waking up in the middle of the night is that accepting it and not fighting it is the key to falling back to sleep when i wake up in the middle of the night i always wake up with something on my mind it could be work it could be something personal it could be something else i often work out stuff i m struggling with in the middle of the night but now i let it happen and not fuss about getting back to sleep and i fall back to sleep most nights within thirty minutes the sleeping later thing has been harder to crack for me i wake up with a lot of energy and i want to get out of bed and take on the world for over twenty years i have been blogging first thing in the morning when i wake up i am doing that now that is because i wake up with things on my mind and i want to work them out and for me that means writing but for the last year i have been forcing myself to lie in bed instead of jumping out of bed i started sleeping until 5 30ish last year i started sleeping until 6ish this year and recently i have been sleeping until 7ish my sleep time has gone from 4 5 hours a night to almost 8 on a good night i got 7 45 of sleep time last night for example i don t always get that much sleep but i get it a lot more frequently longer and better sleep has a lot of health benefits and at age 62 i need all of the health benefits i can get i want to age gracefully and be mentally and physically fit for as long as possible better sleep is part of my plan to be able to do this better sleep comes with some tradeoffs i don t have the two hours in the morning when everyone else is still asleep to read write and clean out my inbox so i am writing less and my inbox is a disaster but it seems like the right tradeoff to make i moved my workouts to the early evening a few days a week so i no longer workout every morning that gives me back some time in the mornings that i ve given to staying in bed longer i understand that not everyone can make these tradeoffs when we had a young family we got up when our kids got up and we went to bed every night exhausted a lot of my sleep issues started when our kids were very young my work schedule is very adaptable and i can do things like move my workouts to the early evenings without missing a beat at work i am lucky that i have all of this flexibility and i am using it to stay healthy and fit my experience over the last two years tells me that sleep habits can change and those of us who are poor sleepers can become good sleepers i started with a device in my case an oura ring that let me measure my sleep i find that measuring helps to manage but ultimately it is behavior change that helps the most for me that meant working out more eating better drinking less and fretting less i do not consider myself done with this journey to improve my sleep i think i will be working on this my entire life but i have made a lot of progress i am sleeping better and for those of you who struggle with sleep i can assure you that you can improve your sleep too life lessons oct 12 2023 open office hours at nyc tech week nyc tech week is next week it will be a week filled with events for the tech sector to engage and connect with each other a particularly great part of tech week is vc open office hours there are over 100 vc investors signed up to participate next week here is how it works 1 you select four investors out of more than 100 that you want to meet 2 you get up to four twenty minute meetings 3 you discuss your idea with the investor in hopes of getting them interested enough to take another meeting 4 nobody should expect to walk out with a commitment to invest as of this moment thursday morning oct 12th about half of the available slots are still open but if you want to participate you probably should act fast as i think this will sell out by the end of today certainly by the end of tomorrow go here to participate nyc vc technology sep 26 2023 the heist on saturday september 9th the gotham gal and i arrived at jfk airport after an eight hour flight from paris while waiting for our luggage i got pushed a notification in my web3 wallet that there was an nft drop underway that i could participate in so i clicked on the link signed the transaction and nothing happened or so i thought so i tried again again nothing happened frustrated i turned my attention to the luggage retrieved it got in a car and headed home on the way home i tried again a few times to no avail it turns out that each of my failed attempts to mint an nft was a scam that allowed a thief to eventually take 46 of my most valuable nfts out of my wallet i did not realize any of this until i woke the next morning to a text from a friend saying did your wallet get compromised your nfts from fredwilson eth were transferred out and sold that s when i realized that all of the failed minting activities from the night before were actually me getting scammed for much of august i along with a lot of nft enthusiasts had been participating in something called onchain summer which was a rollout of the new base layer two blockchain from coinbase part of onchain summer was a daily nft drop you simply clicked on the link in the message in your web3 inbox and went and minted it was fun and i collected some great nfts that way the message i was scammed with looked exactly like those onchain summer messages but was not from the same sender i should have noticed that but did not mistake number one the fact that i signed a transaction and nothing happened should have been a sign that something was wrong normally when you sign a minting transaction a new nft shows...
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