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er drying warming and increasing temperature variability extended data fig 6 conclusions furthermore ongoing trends favour the nonlinear regional mean behaviour amplifying this heatwave thus while the extreme heat of 2021 was unprecedented it was nevertheless mechanistically linked to historical regional climate change this of course ignores the impact of changing land use on soil moisture trends it ignores the probable influence of creeping urbanisation on recent post 1960 warming trends and it ignores the influence of multidecadal natural variability affecting the pacific northwest region they used a model to assess the importance of land atmosphere interactions upon extreme high temperatures using a model experiment tailored to evaluate the role of soil moisture in climate we determine that in the pnw soil moisture atmosphere interactions probably make monthly scale temperature extremes of the magnitude of june 2021 many times more likely then what they do is construct a statistical generalised extreme value curve using the output from the model rather than observations furthermore they don t use global mean surface temperature to shift the distribution upwards they use pnw mean surface temperature which we might expect to be more significantly influenced by localised natural variability over the period in question but which is nevertheless automatically attributed to climate change consequently the likelihood of the standardized temperature anomaly of june 2021 dramatically increases when soil moisture can interact with the atmosphere we fit generalized extreme value gev distributions to the yearly ensemble maximum june mean temperature anomaly methods of each ensemble with their location parameters non stationary in 5 year smoothed annual pnw mean surface temperature pnwmst we use pnwmst as a covariate instead of global mean surface temperature gmst to account for differing pnw mean climate responses to global temperature between model configurations estimated empirical return periods are overlaid on the model curves with each datapoint shifted in temperature by the dependence of the gev location parameter on pnwmst fits and datapoints for each ensemble can thus be compared at a consistent baseline at the observed pnwmst level of 2020 the gev models estimate a 400 fold increase 95 ci 0 03 4 000 000 in the likelihood of the observed monthly anomaly of june 2021 between prescribed and interactive soil moisture ensembles transforming it from an extremely unlikely 500 000 yearly 1 000 event to a 1 400 yearly 150 event goodness me amazing what was once an event not expected to occur more than once in half a million years has now become an event which is expected to recur every 1400 years that s pretty good going but it s still rare even in their shape shifted land atmosphere interacting climate too rare they need it to be much more common in order to generate the necessary amount of public alarm about an event which probably has almost nothing to do with the climate crisis so here s where they really go to town on the data increasing event likelihood driven by climate change recent climate change has rapidly increased the likelihood of the 2021 heatwave over the past 70 years such an event has multiplied in probability from virtually impossible to a multihundred yearly event fig 4 as above we apply gev analysis a targeted approach for estimating extreme value statistics and an established method for attributing climate extremes to anthropogenic warming we note that assessing the probability of this event in temperature alone despite its multivariate extreme characteristics probably conservatively estimates its increasing likelihood as a compound event given simultaneous trends in other variables such as soil moisture our mission impossible agents literally perform miracles in order to get the job done we apply gev analysis to yearly maximum june august daily temperatures extending back to 1950 to maximize sample size and robustness with both location and scale parameters non stationary in 5 year smoothed gmst methods results reveal drastic historical changes in heatwave probabilities a hypothetical daily 8 c regional temperature anomaly is estimated to have been virtually impossible in the 1950 1985 climate but has become an 50 yearly event in the climate since 1986 fig 4b similarly the 2021 heatwave an 10 4 c peak anomaly far exceeding the historical range was virtually impossible even at the average global temperature over 1986 2021 return period 95 ci 1 500 but by 2021 has become a 200 yearly event 25 thereby experiencing an infinite increase in probability at least 13 fold its probability increase since 1950 1985 is likewise infinite at least 500 000 fold furthermore the probability of an event exceeding the magnitude of 2021 will increase rapidly under further increasing gmst projected to recur 10 yearly before 2050 bloody hell is that not scary enough for ya there s been an infinite increase in the probability of searing heatwaves just since 1985 the climate crisis has changed the climate of the pacific northwest beyond all recognition basically you could say it s been fubar d what once was impossible has now become possible and in a few more years it will become routine but they can only perform this miraculous scientific feat by including the observed impossible 2021 heatwave in their statistical calculations in including 2021 we follow refs 45 46 49 assuming that the observation of 2021 is drawn from the same distribution as historical observations since the study region was not selected solely to maximize local extremity but rather for a large scale regional perspective reducing but not eliminating selection bias alternatively however the excluding 2021 fit estimates a finite maximum possible temperature well below the 2021 observation even under current warming fig 4b questioning its validity we note that the including 2021 fit is not rejected by a kolmogorov smirnov test supplementary figs 9 and 10 despite its poor fit in similar analyses which maintained a fixed scale parameter and analysed a smaller region more concentrated on the extreme ultimately both fits underscore dramatic increases in heat extreme probabilities resulting from gradual warming in both an 1 000 yearly event in the 1950s would currently resemble an 5 yearly event and has been surpassed many times fig 4a furthermore comparing future projections of a 2021 magnitude event the fits roughly converge both projecting 10 yearly recurrences by 2 5 c gmst above pre industrial temperatures notably this threshold only increases to 2 75 c gmst in a gev fit with stationary instead of non stationary scale parameters this is what their gev fit including 2021 looks like the red curve in fig b which fits past observations does not intersect the 2021 event dashed line their new distribution which includes 2021 but fails to align with any previous observations intersects the 2021 event at about 200 years allowing the authors to make their wild claims above the authors conclude the following notably land atmosphere coupling and temperature variability increases are strongest where soil moisture is climatologically moderate instead of the driest areas thus in the pnw drying may increase temperature variability more than in already arid regions like the southwestern united states in accordance with recent research demonstrating the emergence of heat amplifying land atmosphere feedbacks in regions not historically experiencing them and moreover projections of widespread mid century soil moisture regime shifts including the pnw37 we suggest that the 2021 heatwave may represent an alarming manifestation of a shifting regime across much of the pnw from wet to transitional climate making such events more likely through strengthened soil moisture temperature coupling however further research is required to substantiate this in a final part of this series i ll be looking at this claim posted in climate change extreme weather and tagged heatwaves pacific northwest on january 23 2023 by jaime jessop 1 comment wapo a new climate reality less warming but worse impacts on the planet pmsl the climate change alarmists are being forced to admit that their catastrophic projections of global warming are not happening but rather than admit that they were wrong they re just moving the goal posts plus absurdly claiming that the lack of warming is because of their stupid windmills it s unbelievable these people are pathologically incapable of admitting error here s what the washington post is now claiming in the not so distant past scientists predicted that global temperatures would surge dramatically throughout this century assuming that humans would rely heavily on fossil fuels for decades but they are revising their forecasts as they track both signs of progress and unexpected hazards translation we got it wrong accelerating solar and wind energy adoption means global warming probably will not reach the extremes once feared climate scientists say at the same time recent heat storms and ecological disasters prove they say that climate change impacts could be more severe than predicted even with less warming researchers are increasingly worried about the degree to which even less than extreme increases in global temperatures will intensify heat and storms irreversibly destabilize natural systems and overwhelm even highly developed societies extremes considered virtually impossible not long ago are already occurring translation our silly windmills and solar panels have prevented really catastrophic global warming but extreme weather is worse than we thought even though global warming is not as bad we pretended it would be so we still need more windmills and solar panels and a ban on gas boilers cookers and cars in order to prevent nasty weather this is called wanting to have your cake and eat it in defence of the extreme weather is a lot more extreme than we thought it would be meme they cite the recent heatwave more a very brief flash in the pan actually which occurred in the pacific northwest take for example a heat wave that descended on the pacific northwest in june 2021 portland and seattle hit record highs of 116 degrees and 108 degrees respectively british columbia broke canadian high temperature records three days in a row peaking at 121 degrees more than 40 degrees hotter than normal for that time of year scientists quickly determined the heat was so extreme it could not have occurred without the influence of global warming further research found that in a world with 2 degrees of warming above preindustrial temperatures it may be a once in a decade sort of event it s hard to know where to start with dissecting the bullshit in these statements because when you look at the science which they are quoting it all falls apart spectacularly when they say that the peak maximum daytime temperatures reached in the pacific nw heatwave could not have occurred without global warming what they mean is that even with global warming they were impossible that s what the study found here s the proof the red curve is the current globally warmed climate with 95 confidence intervals the blue curve is the hypothetical climate without alleged man made global warming what do you notice the actual event is way above the red curve even they never intersect this means that the event in question is statistically impossible even with global warming that was the statistical analysis the models were just as bad i wrote about this rapid extreme weather attribution study here climate covid challenging unenlightenment science unraveling attribution pseudoscience no the nw pacific heatwave would not have been virtually impossible without global warming this is what the media is claiming this is what scientists are claiming this is what matt mcgrath at the bbc is claiming the searing heat that scorched western canada and the us at the end of june was virtually impossible without climate change say scientists read more 2 years ago jaime jessop and here climate covid challenging unenlightenment science nw pacific heatwave attribution multiple climate model failure the authors describe the models used thus model simulations from the 6th coupled model intercomparison project cmip6 eyring et al 2016 are assessed we combine the historical simulations 1850 to 2015 with the shared socioeconomic pathway ssp projections o neill et al 2016 for the years 2016 to 2100 here we only use data from ssp5 8 5 alt read more 2 years ago jaime jessop by sleight of hand and via some extremely dubious statistical manipulation the authors managed to conclude that the event in today s climate was as rare as a 1 in a 1000 year event even though their own statistical analysis and climate models showed that it was an impossible event the dishonest media then propagate the myth by telling us that without climate change such a heatwave would have been impossible conveniently neglecting to mention that the scientific study which they so enthusiastically cite demonstrated that it was impossible with climate change meaning that something other than a generalised global warming must have caused it exactly the same thing happened with the 40c heatwave in the uk last year climate covid challenging unenlightenment science it s wired s turn to hero worship friederike otto whilst grossly misleading the public about her uk 40c attribution study fredi is the darling of the lame stream media at the moment who it would seem are singularly intent upon bigging her up by falsely attributing scientific rigour and undeniable evidential value to her extreme weather attribution studies it s pissing me off to be honest no not because i harbour some personal grudge against otto she just happens to read more 11 days ago 11 likes 2 comments jaime jessop as if that wasn t enough the experts and the fawning media then go on to tell us that such impossible events could become routine in 20 years time how well after torturing the data and shoe horning the impossible event into an extremely dubious statistical trend the authors then use extremely unrealistic model projections of global warming over the next 20 years to conclude that the nw pacific heatwave might happen every 5 10 years by the early 2040s omg scary in order to reach 2c above pre industrial global mean surface temperature defined as before 1850 in 20 years time the world would have to warm another 0 8c which is 0 4c per decade but we have already seen that since 1979 the world has warmed by just 0 13c per decade and it s currently not warming at all climate covid challenging unenlightenment science two terrifying graphs which reveal the climate crisis read more 12 days ago 24 likes 10 comments jaime jessop so the authors of this attribution study quoted by wapo which include the infamous fredi otto are using extremely unrealistic projections of global warming and unscientific statistical ana...
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