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ther form a multi year series of cycles institutional money has traditionally favored accumulation cycles while retail investors have been active in distribution cycles bitcoin s history is also defined by halving events which are always preceded by a pre halving accumulation cycle praeterea bitcoin s path is currently supported by multiple macro level factors first bitcoin has shifted from a distribution cycle to a pre halving accumulation cycle looking toward the spring 2024 halving additionally bitcoin is now being uplifted by reflexivity and the leading cryptocurrency correlates with stocks like coinbase coin which has strengthened 138 percent this year sources timo oinonen cryptoquant realized price in a moderate ascent the nearly 20 percent strengthening of bitcoin in the past month has also triggered movement in the realized price turquoise during the parabolic price development in the spring bitcoin formed a divergence with the realized price which has now clearly surpassed 20 000 the realized price is seen as a market watershed because it represents the average price of all bitcoin purchases additionally a spot price exceeding the realized price indicates that bitcoin investors are in profit with their investments sources timo oinonen cryptoquant the spot price white and the 6m 12m wave of the realized price orange now create a situation reminiscent of the year 2020 where the spot rose above the orange wave the same phenomenon occurred during the correction of the summer of 2019 historically this structure has indicated an upward price cycle near zero correlation between bitcoin and stock market bitcoin was long considered a so called uncorrelated asset with its price movements occurring independently of traditional asset classes this narrative held true especially in the early years of cryptocurrency when its correlation with the s p 500 index was close to zero however the situation changed in 2020 when michael saylor launched his famous bitcoin theses and made significant bitcoin allocations through his company microstrategy mstr with the rise of institutional interest bitcoin s correlation with the stock market increased now bitcoin is once again returning to its roots of near zero correlation with the stock market a chart from pantera capital illustrates how after the sharp rise in 2021 2022 bitcoin s correlation has dropped to the zero line and even slightly below it it is interesting to observe whether the correlation between bitcoin and the stock market will now become significantly negative source pantera capital in addition to the s p 500 index bitcoin s correlation with technology stocks has fallen significantly according to kaiko s chart the correlation between bitcoin and tech stocks is now close to zero creating an exceptional setup bitcoin s correlation to coinbase s coin stock which is up more than 133 percent since the beginning of the year remains strong source kaiko what are we following right now danish saxo bank has unexpectedly received a crypto related trading ban from the country s authorities danish regulator orders saxo bank to dispose of its own holdings of cryptoassets saying banks aren t allowed to conduct proprietary trading under current regulations https t co et7njppxyn bloomberg crypto crypto july 5 2023 glassnode s comprehensive guide on analyzing short term sth and long term lth investors is inflation driving the central banks into a corner once and for all analyst lyn alden opens up her views on the subject stay in the loop of the latest crypto events coinmotion adds two new strategic board members to strengthen its position in the digital currency market bitcoin s grand return to 30k bitcoin decouples from the stock market and altcoin correlations ripple xrp empowering the future of digital currency the déjà vu of bitcoin dominance coinmotion teams up with fenergo for the next level in aml compliance is web3 the future of the internet get started with bitcoin litecoin ethereum aave usdc stellar ripple join coinmotion and buy your first cryptocurrencies within minutes let s go the views thoughts and opinions expressed in the text belong to the author and not necessarily to the author s employer organization committee or other group or individual bitcoin s grand return to 30k https coinmotion com bitcoins thrilling comeback to 30k wed 28 jun 2023 09 15 03 0000 https coinmotion com p 71923 the technical analysis of week 25 charts bitcoin s return to the critical 30 000 level in addition we delve into the growth of institutional demand and its reasons we also study the differentiation of commodity and security classified tokens significant new demand has been injected into the crypto market over the past seven days pushing bitcoin up eight percent in the time window of the last two weeks the leading cryptocurrency has strengthened by almost 18 bitcoin is now being boosted by speculation about blackrock s etf fund and a renaissance of institutional interest the emerging institutional demand is also indicated by coinshares inflows of 199 million representing the largest number since july 2022 the dramatic wave of demand also breaks the spring s nine week trend of outflows digital asset investment products saw the largest single weekly inflows since july 2022 totaling us 199m correcting almost half of the prior 9 consecutive weeks of outflows this turn in sentiment didn t trickle down to altcoins with only very minor inflows james butterfill coinshares butterfill s comments support ta s previous thesis about the growth of bitcoin dominance at the expense of altcoins and other tokens after the u s securities and exchange commission s reclassification bitcoin which received a commodity classification has clearly distinguished itself from altcoins classified as securities source coinshares from a purely technical point of view bitcoin managed to break through its april june resistance level white which for months has blocked bullish efforts of the spot price red crossing the resistance line indicated by the green arrow also makes it a new support level sources timo oinonen cryptoquant cryptoquant s data shows the spot price made a flash rise to 56k indicating a possible target price for this year technical analysis has previously estimated that bitcoin could reach 46 000 before the end of the year the current market composition is very similar to the post bear cycle year of 2019 as mark twain famously said history doesn t repeat itself but it rhymes if the 2018 2019 cycle is used as a reference point bitcoin could rise above 40 000 this year between january and july 2019 the spot price of bitcoin rose from 3808 to 10 570 a percentage gain of 178 sources timo oinonen cryptoquant the material indicators heatmap looks promising with new support forming at 30 000 at the same time the purple and brown graphs of the cumulative volume delta tell about the elevated whale level demand source material indicators bitcoin has risen almost eight percent since last week and almost 18 percent in the two week time window ethereum s price development on the other hand seems to be fading dropping its correlation with bitcoin litecoin which will meet its halving event in 34 days strengthened by more than eight percent many of the higher beta tokens listed on coinmotion have gained new momentum in seven days aave strengthened by 18 7 percent and stellar by 23 6 the downward trend of the leading stock index s p 500 forms a clear divergence from the crypto market 7 day price performance bitcoin btc 7 8 ethereum eth 4 3 litecoin ltc 8 1 aave aave 18 7 chainlink link 16 4 uniswap uni 13 3 stellar xlm 23 6 xrp 2 get started with bitcoin litecoin ethereum aave usdc stellar ripple join coinmotion and buy your first cryptocurrencies within minutes let s go s p 500 index 0 2 gold 1 5 the divergence of security and commodity tokens on june 5th the u s securities and exchange commission sec announced that it was suing the binance us platform and ceo changpeng zhao also known as cz binance has to answer a total of 13 charges which include operating the exchange without a proper license the sec s onslaught continued on tuesday june 6th when it sued coinbase coinbase is accused of e g the sale of unregistered securities the commission s attacks on these two mainstream exchanges have brought clear selling pressure to the market binance linked tokens have naturally taken more of a hit with binance coin or bnb weakening by 23 percent in a month at the same time the sec divided cryptocurrencies and tokens into two main groups one of which includes commodity tokens and the other security tokens the radical classification places only bitcoin and ethereum in the commodity group securing their status most altcoins belong to the latter group of securities making their exploitation challenging in the united states security classified tokens include at least sol ada matic fil sand axs chz icp near vgx dash flow mana algo nexo atom bnb busd and coti source cryptoquant commodity rated tokens orange weakened slightly after the sec actions but in mid june they continued to rise as currencies worked their way back toward may s valuation levels at the same time commodity classified bitcoin is boosted by blackrock s etf application and other institutional projects after the commission s lawsuits the indexed prices of commodity classified tokens have increased by 9 2 percent climbing from 99 16 to 108 31 on the indexed scale the prices of securities classified tokens purple on the other hand have fallen 21 2 percent after the lawsuit weakening on the indexed scale from 95 98 to 75 67 the market capitalization of commodity classified tokens has increased by 8 8 percent since the sec s actions while the market cap of security classified tokens has weakened by 19 5 in conclusion the u s securities and exchange commission has divided the market into new losers and winners while strengthening the positions of bitcoin and ethereum source cryptoquant the strengthening of bitcoin s position can also be seen in proshares bitcoin strategy etf bito whose largest inflows in 2023 brought its size to over 1 billion source bloomberg at the same time canadian purpose bitcoin etf s assets have exceeded 24 700 bitcoin units representing the largest reading in 2023 source glassnode bitcoin dominance at 2023 peak the divergence between bitcoin and altcoins described in the previous section is also reflected in the growth of bitcoin dominance according to kaiko bitcoin s volume dominance on u s exchanges has grown from 29 percent at the beginning of the year to the current 49 percent the increase in dominance from january to june has therefore jumped by a whopping 69 percent source kaiko although the sec s classification only applies to its domestic market the regulatory action also has an impact on the overall credibility of various blockchain projects the commission s ability to spread uncertainty with its securities classification is therefore a clear threat in the current regulatory environment bitcoin s dominance can be predicted to continue to grow about the competitive position of binance and coinbase binance and coinbase which have been targeted by the sec are now closely monitored as blockchain data enables greater transparency than the traditional market both exchanges mirror the state of the market and the change in the regulatory environment at the beginning of the year binance s spot market share was more than 90 percent making the exchange a potential single point of failure a better distribution of volume among medium sized exchanges is a healthy development trend for the industry the bitcoin outflow data from the exchanges show that binance clearly took a bigger hit than coinbase as the regulatory field tightened binance outflows were on a significant rise in early june peaking at 30 000 bitcoin units on a daily basis sources timo oinonen cryptoquant binance s difficulty factor is raised by its own binance coin bnb token binance will be forced to sell its liquid token portfolio to support bnb s falling price generating selling pressure on the entire market although changpeng zhao cz has denied bnb support purchases market data from hyblock indicates otherwise the situation can be compared to the situation of the ftx exchange and alameda research with ftx token ftt the price development of bnb red looks dangerous as the price of the token has fallen by 25 percent in a month in the past binance s huge growth spurt was fueled by speculative high beta tokens many of which are at risk of being placed on the sec s securities classification list in addition the company grew during the zero interest rate cycle with the financial environment now significantly more challenging sources timo oinonen cryptoquant coinbase s outflows have remained more modest at the end of june around 6000 bitcoin units flowed out of the exchange the coin share of the listed coinbase has risen almost 60 percent since the beginning of the year and the exchange does not have its own platform token to support it in contrast to binance coinbase s philosophy has been more sustainable growth in accordance with compliance guidelines what are we following right now prime trust operating in the state of nevada is apparently guilty of serious misconduct according to the court prime lost access to its wallets and used customer funds to patch up its balance sheet don t trust verify fid alleged prime trust lost access to legacy wallets in 2021 and used customer assets to buy back crypto oh brother https t co 2rrw2jpmdr pic twitter com zjebypakca db tier10k june 27 2023 crossborder capital s michael howell explains why liquidity might be returning blockchain and market cycle analyst rational root opens up his views on the state of the market stay in the loop of the latest crypto events coinmotion adds two new strategic board members to strengthen its position in the digital currency market bitcoin decouples from the stock market and altcoin correlations ripple xrp empowering the future of digital currency the déjà vu of bitcoin dominance coinmotion teams up with fenergo for the next level in aml compliance is web3 the future of the internet exploring altcoins updated meaning in 2023 brc20 tokens how they differ from other cryptocurrencies how can decentralization save us in a world driven by ai get started with bitcoin litecoin ethereum aave usdc stellar ripple join coinmotion and buy your first cryptocurrencies within minutes let s go the views thoughts and opinions expressed in the text belong to the author and not necessarily to the author s employer organization committee or other group or individual coinmotion adds two new strategic board members to strengthen its position in the digital currency market https coinmotion com coinmotion adds two new strategic board members mon 26 jun 2023 07 06 08 0000 https coinmotion com p 71776 coinmotion oy a 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