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description= 10 posts published by moctavio during June 2010;
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the (450), and (137), that (83), for (55), this (51), but (46), government (42), was (42), food (42), have (40), they (39), you (37), not (37), with (36), chavez (35), from (34), has (33), all (32), which (32), #venezuela (31), are (30), his (28), june (27), 2010 (27), will (25), may (24), much (21), can (19), year (19), how (19), 2009 (18), now (17), 2008 (17), who (17), more (17), years (17), about (16), october (16), march (16), 2004 (16), 2007 (16), than (16), november (15), january (15), february (15), april (15), 2005 (15), pdvsa (15), billion (15), pdval (15), comments (14), august (14), september (14), december (14), july (14), 2006 (14), new (14), what (14), country (14), does (14), some (14), oil (14), 000 (14), 2003 (13), into (13), these (13), like (13), even (13), market (13), imports (13), 2011 (12), 2012 (12), 2013 (12), 2014 (12), 2015 (12), would (12), were (12), money (12), last (12), tons (12), time (11), venezuelan (11), one (11), when (11), thus (11), there (11), less (11), only (11), then (11), where (11), report (10), posted (10), should (10), out (10), them (10), think (10), used (10), get (10), end (10), robolution (10), million (10), just (10), too (10), bad (10), other (9), their (9), swap (9), bonds (9), sector (9), after (9), 2016 (8), while (8), because (8), well (8), according (8), part (8), president (8), foreign (8), currency (8), been (8), going (8), total (8), things (8), over (8), want (8), news (8), imported (8), private (8), case (8), import (8), devil (7), those (7), any (7), its (7), price (7), had (7), graph (7), prices (7), per (7), first (7), work (7), people (7), workers (7), know (7), storage (7), jaua (7), street (7), excrement (6), create (6), another (6), something (6), why (6), course (6), back (6), uncategorized (6), opposition (6), fonden (6), natera (6), don (6), never (6), most (6), six (6), problems (6), needs (6), cadivi (6), dollars (6), could (6), look (6), amount (6), stuff (6), him (6), spoiled (6), right 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ela 67 comments new pdval head as clueless as his predecessors june 26 2010 i think that food is not the only thing that is going bad in venezuela with over 120 000 tons of food found either in a putrid state or expired over the last month you would think that the new head of pdval locally called putreval colonel carlos osorio would spend at least his first month in office looking at the logistics of how the food is brought into the country and how is distributed to understand why so much food was left in storage and allowed to go bad instead the colonel spends the day visiting a polar facility and meeting the press to denounce that lo and behold they found all of 79 tons of margarine at a polar storage building imagine that 79 tons of a product when the company he presides has allowed four orders of magnitude more of food to go bad over a few months i guess they don t teach orders of magnitude in military school in venezuela or the colonel was transferred just when the subject was going to be covered in class but this simple example shows why this government is so incompetent and ineffective a guy on his first day on a job which requires managerial experience that he clearly does not have otherwise he would not be a colonel rather than attempting to tackle the overwhelming task in front of him chooses to devote his time attacking the private sector using a miniscule amount of food as an excuse to accuse them of hoarding miniscule because polar provides a large fraction of the margarine in the country under a variety of names in a country of 26 million people where 160 000 tubs of margarine are probably sold every week of the year and as the polar representative explained since thursday was holiday there was more material in storage than usual but the problem is clear the government spends all the time on propaganda avoiding responsibility and trying to distract attention from the myriad of problems it has created with its incompetence and this simply indicates that colonel osorio will be another failure in his new position as he will not have the support either of funding or logistics that pdvsa used to have pdval he probably thinks the military will do a better job than pdvsa but this example clearly shows this is unlikely to be the case he is as clueless as his predecessors and throwing money and soldiers at the problem will not solve anything you just need organization management and hard work but that is too much to ask from anyone in this government which always finds time to spend on the less important things meanwhile the legislative council of monagas state decides to investigate polar for the firing of one worker the same week that chavez freezes all collective bargaining agreements in the country forbids salary increases and bonuses for any worker in the venezuelan civil service but all these workers do not appear to have any labor rights but the polar worker needs to be protected it is all smoke and mirrors trying to hide the reality of the failure of the robolution in all fields of government but after eleven years people are no longer fooled as easily no jobs inflation and shortages have become the main concerns of the population which is tired of a robolution that has failed to deliver posted in venezuela 14 comments a radical shift to the radical left in venezuela june 25 2010 believe it or not within the robolution some people think there is a right and a left the right belonging to those that want a little more pragmatism and less ideology for the sake of the survival of the robolution with an o while the left is composed by the more pol potian leaders whose idea of socialism is averaging down everyone until we are all as poor and as obedient to the process as can be it is not a very well defined line the more radical wing is actually more honest or should i say less corrupt less touched by scandals while the right wingers are also pragmatic when it comes to their life styles and allowing others to stick their hands in the till they have discovered the good life and heck they enjoy it the leader of the pol potians is of course jorge giordani the monk who has been planning minister forever where he has accomplished failure after failure in his planning and economic policies but his honesty and chemistry with the all mighty leader has allowed giordani s incompetence to flourish giordani took a gigantic leap forward when he was finally upgraded to ministry of finance a position in which his decisions can directly and immediately screw up the venezuelan economy and lead to the type of destruction on which xxist century socialism whatever that may mean can be built upon but a new powerful leader has emerged in the midst of all this current vice president elias jaua the ph d in sociology who has presided over the not so successful land and agricultural policies of the chavez era after two million hectares under his control jaua seems to have realized that he could not get more than 5 of them to produce and the real power is not in the land like pol pot and mao dreamed of but in the robolution the power is with the imports that s where the money is so let s go after it some claim it was actually jaua who started leaking all of the information about the food going bad all around the country as a means to get a strong hold on pdvsa s subsidiary pdval as well as the companies nationalized by chavez in the last two years in the food production sector if true the plan worked out perfect as pdval is now directly under the umbrella of the vice presidency and the food companies are part of the minister for feeding another jaua subsidiary in a perverse sense this is good news for venezuela the food import and distribution is completely removed from pdvsa s daily activities which will allow its management to concentrate in the most important business in the land oil pdvsa should have never been involved with pdval but chavez belief that pdvsa s weakened management and almost infinite resources would solve the problem and ramirez thinking that being in charge of the biggest exporter and the biggest importer in the land would make him untouchable forced pdvsa into an undesirable and unwanted business but this is also bad news as jaua and his cohorts are full of ideology and have little managerial expertise to undertake the task that they have brought upon themselves they may think that by being honest less corrupt they can manage the food import and distribution business more efficiently but they also belong to the chavista strain that believes that anyone can do anything even if eleven years of failures proves otherwise and besides the lack of management there will be the lack of the ample resources read cash that pdvsa had and which can move mountains whenever it is necessary no secret budget can even approach the levels of funds and agility available to pdvsa something that ramirez is certainly going to shield now from jaua s desires and it is a bad moment for this to happen with the private sector now strangled if the new pdval runs into troubles with the flow of imports the shortages will be even more dramatic completing the circle of good news bad news for our dear country in some sense ramirez has to go now for jaua to be successful in his new enterprise but somehow the minister of energy and oil is a true survivor a man of many secrets and many suitcases which so far have averted his demise but there is only one survivor for now in the robolution and his name is hugo chavez ask diosdado cabello and his cohorts six of which were swiftly removed from the cabinet simultaneously with the pdval grab in the name of the parliamentary elections or ask former vice president carrizales who stood up for the military in the face of a cuban invasion in key military positions and was quickly replaced by the quiet sociologist with the name that always seems short a consonant they are all gone for now but they may return like comets much like diosdado has reappeared whenever things were not working well ideology imports little food and feeds few mouths and every time chavez has shifted to the pol potians he has eventually found the need to bring back the right to straighten out the mess for now you can assume the worst case scenario think banks think globo think pol pot the total destruction of a system in the name of a nebulous idea which is still a work in progress eleven years after chavez ascension to power only a quick deterioration could shift the balance of power at this time and chavez needs a magician to stop the unraveling of the venezuelan economy which may lead to the resurgence of the radical right and the cycle would begin once again posted in uncategorized venezuela 20 comments not much news in the teflon robolution in venezuela june 23 2010 they want to shut our mouths off bit all they have managed is to shut our noses off yes not much stuff to blog about the way things are going in venezuela the word news requires something beyond imagination because the routine just does not cut it here in venezuela anymore chavez used to be a teflon president but we now seem to have a teflon government nothing sticks to it nothing scandalizes everything in the end is the opposition s fault and or absolutely irrelevant take the by now 120 000 tons of putrid food imported by the government it turns out that the word putrid is just an exaggeration it is just expired food or some socialist concept like that and by the way it is mostly the private sectors fault according to the chief mismanager the president of pdvsa rafael ramirez according to this genius who will go into history as the destroyer of pdvsa the private sector is responsible for their putrid food because they were in charge of the ships and the storage companies funny the storage companies were nationalized long ago and in any case if this were the problem the government would be finding lots of private sector spoiled food instead every time they raid the private sector companies they take the food away for hoarding but somehow it is never spoiled bad or whatever euphemism you want to find for a large fraction of what happens to the food brought in by the government oh how come the cubans who run the ports are exempt from fault oh yes they are cubans and then you wonder when the comptroller surfaces and says that he started looking into the rotten food two years ago are you kidding me clodosvaldo that was 120 000 tons ago what have you done since then of course leopoldo lopez used money for one purpose to pay a chavez ordered salary increase it only took you six months to ban him from running for office i guess the pdval or putrival guys can be elected for the next national assembly at least they will know where to look for the corruption which brings me then to the people s ombudswoman who always comes to the defense of the teflon guys but seems rather quiet on the subject of the possible poisoning of the population she should be concerned after all the spoiled food was not meant for the oligarchs but for those that vote for hugo or at least used to what morals does this woman have as diego arria told chavez i tell her see you in the hague and i include clodosvaldo and his double pension in this too and speaking of those pensioned off how about funny man norman puerta the former and retired anti drug czar of venezuela he was caught with a million dollars in that idyllic country but it has nothing to do with drugs or anything illegal it was just a misunderstanding over the money he saved just a million bucks of savings for a guy who made made maybe us 1 000 2 000 a month but you know the people who work for the chavez teflonic government particularly in the anti drug sector they lead spartan lives after 11 years in power they can save a million bucks i s just discipline even if you don t believe the math it would only take him 500 months to make that million and that is only 41 6 years chavez should last that much if things keep rolling along the way they are and in the middle of all these irrelevant news chavez issues a decree saying that nobody absolutely nobody can negotiate a collective contract agreement without his authorization never mind that this has been the silent rule of law for the last five years it is an intrinsic part of xxist century socialism that unions are out and chavez s party psuv is in thus no negotiations no salary increases no unions and some people still think this is a left wing revolution neither the workers nor the people can revolt in venezuela it is all about hugo but thanks god these are quiet times not much happening not much to write when something does happen you can be sure i will report back to you beyond the banalities of the robolution like those described above in the meantime i will do like the opposition leaders work on my stuff even if i don t want to get elected posted in venezuela 38 comments a look at the foreign currency that the venezuelan government may have in 2010t june 20 2010 one of the mysteries this year is why the government has been so stingy with the exchange control office cadivi as well as its decision not to supply more foreign currency to any alternative market despite higher oil prices that is why i was mesmerized by the following barclays graph which was published this week in this graph barclays plots for each of the last six years how much cadivi gave out to importers how much the parallel market traded and how much the government issued in bonds the first surprise because i had not looked at the totals for a while was that the swap market was larger than cadivi last year what this means is simply that pdvsa preferred to change at the highers swap market rate than at the bs 2 15 per rate which prevailed last year this is because in the end the government via the treasury fonden or whatever other mechanism was the main provider of foreign currency to the swap market thus in the end it is the government that provides both markets thus in some sense it is better to look at the total cadivi swap market bonds and subtract the bonds to get an idea of what the last few years were like i plot that in the next graph together with the price of venezuela s oil basket sort of assuming production is constant which it is not in the above graph the green line is the average price for the venezuelan oil basket for the year in us dollars while the blue line is the total amount of us dollars in billions given to importers by cadivi and or purchased in the swap market plus bonds issued which in the end measures the number of dollars to which the government had access on any given year the red line simply subtracts the issuance of bonds from that total it is a measure of the deficit of foreign currency the government had which forced it to resort to issue bonds let s look at this graph historically in 2004 the oil basket was us 31 85 and the government had some us 25 billion of which it had to issue us 5 billion...
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