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description= 10 posts published by moctavio during December 2012;
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the, venezuela, elections, for, to, regional, blog, all, blogs, by, in, of, venezuelan, results, at, pm, devil, excrement, archive, december, 2012, unknown, feed, subscribe, via, email, categories, miguel, octavio, blogroll, venezuelans, recent, posts, archives, pages, meta, stats, chávez, delicate, state, says, vice, president, maduro, econoinvest, directors, freed, signs, change, seven, more, years, merry, christmas, and, happy, holidays, readers, while, chavismo, should, hold, asap, diosdado, only, talks, about, delaying, them, is, there, any, silver, lining, opposition, from, sunday, will, falcon, ask, be, candidate, some, thoughts, on, official, 00, election, update, 30,
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eaders december 24 2012 i would like to wish you all a very merry christmas and very happy holidays i hope you relax tonight and tomorrow and enjoy christmas with your loved ones and that you get all of the rewarding gifts you desire both material and spiritual ones miguel posted in uncategorized 40 comments while chavismo should hold elections asap diosdado only talks about delaying them december 23 2012 let me try to understand the current scenario the opposition just suffered one of its worst defeats ever since chavismo came to power chavismo can give the opposition the final knockout punch by holding elections as soon as possible elect chávez chosen successor and castro s but diosdado wants to wait and give chávez time to get better by loosely interpreting the constitution and saying it is the opposition that wants to rush the process of course we hear maduro say nothing about the issue not one iota from maduro about jan 10th just chávez is better while time simply gives the opposition the chance to select a candidate organize raise funds and try to regroup after the dec 16th defeat does any of it make sense to you does it make sense for heir apparent maduro to wait does this make it sound like chavismo is unified because in the end what we do know is that it does not look like chávez will live for four years after jan 10th the time that would have to elapse for chavismo to hold on to power for the next six years but it does seem like if you rush an election now before the people can realize what a terrible candidate maduro is chavismo can cling to power for six more years instead we get godgiven cabello telling us daily at every turn all over the country how chávez does not have to show up for however long he wants of course godgiven will be president all of this extra time call it cabello s overtime so i would have to agree with dieterich that cabello is trying to bypass chávez wish of designating maduro as his successor but while godgiven addresses the issue at every step maduro just plods along talking about unity and that chávez is getting better but maduro has yet to say beep about what happens if on jan 10th hugo is a no show is this for real or is this a well planned out game of making the opposition believe that the elections are not forthcoming because otherwise it just seems as if diosdado wants to extend to the power he should only hold for thirty days after jan 10th for as long as he can to me this is the best possible scenario for the opposition just better not much more let the elections be delayed as soon as possible let economic decisions be delayed let maduro go around the country campaigning so that people can see he is just a chávez wannabe and let the oppo build up a credible challenge does it get better than that i doubt it but it still seems like a distracting ploy to me next important date jan 5th will diosdado be ratified as president of the assembly or will a woman named blanca be named and will she become the first female president of venezuela albeit for thirty days posted in uncategorized 28 comments is there any silver lining for the venezuelan opposition from sunday s elections december 20 2012 people have been trying to find a silver lining in sunday s results for the opposition and i think they are stretching it too much the results were very bad for the opposition the only reason why they were not disastrous was because falcon won by 8 in lara and capriles by 4 in miranda but either of those two losing would have simply been a total disaster from the raw results capriles barely avoided the cliff but he only won by 4 three percentage points lower than his margin of victory against diosdado cabello in 2008 who was at the time governor and well known jaua on the other hand was less well known a worse candidate and amazingly enough a worse speaker than cabello thus i believe this margin weakens capriles but i can imagine a room with capriles and falcón discussing who should be the presidential candidate should the need arise falcón henrique you should be the candidate hcr no no i only won by 4 01 so please you be the candidate falcón oh please you be the candidate you are our national leader hcr oh please you will probably be better at getting chavista light votes and you won by 8 01 of the vote and so on and so forth because clearly it will be very tough to beat nicolás maduro for either of them in fact i don t see today how this could be done except if chavismo fell sleep at the wheel and decided not to rush the presidential election but if the do the logical thing and hold it fast unless chavismo splits and something dramatic happens to turn off voters i just don t see it possible that capriles small edge in his state can be turned into a national victory and i think falcón is not know nationally very well and he will not have time to campaign adequately and the abstention numbers were bad for the opposition on sunday because they show how demoralized and unmotivated voters felt after the october defeat yes chavismo also suffered from the same problem but in both the 2007 constitutional referendum and the 2010 assembly elections opposition voters had been more militant than chavista voters when the presidency was not involved since the 2006 presidential elections the opposition had obtained an increasing percentage of the votes every single election except in this one our voters had always been much more disciplined than chavistas who will only turn out in large number s when chavez was involved opposition voters were increasingly there but this time around they seemed tired and did not show up can they be woken up again fast it would seem hard at this time unless something happened to wake them up that we know chavismo used all sorts of abuses to win on sunday of course see picture above but they will be even more abusive in a presidential race because what is at stake is the future of the revolution they would pull off all of the stops as they know that chavez absence is a weakness even if there will be some sympathy vote the opposition should have also held primaries in every single state rather than leaving certain candidates out of respect for their regional leaderships most of those guys lost like the salas in carabobo or perez vivas in tachira in contrast chavismo removed some of the tired leaderships in certain states and even if they were replaced by chavez hand picked cronies they won to me the main factors that explain sunday s results were abstention and abuse of power abstention because for the first time in a while our militant voters stayed away and i don t need to remind everyone of the myriad of abuse of power incidents that were seen in the last month including the press conference on sunday and chavez son in laws two appearances over the weekend telling us what is father in law wanted from the electorate curious that once the elections were over there have no more calls to pray for chávez nor more masses held in his behalf end of the charade once the votes were in about the only silver lining i have found is the abstention for chavismo it was higher than in any electoral event save for the constitutional referendum in 2007 which the opposition managed to win this despite the heavy vote buying and all of the electoral tricks which only goes to prove that it is the opposition voters that need to be mobilized and motivated and not blamed for the defeat in a scenario with no chávez chavismo will no longer be able to feel comfortable going into any elections and in the end as i have been saying it may just be for the better let chavismo deal with the economic adjustment necessary because of years of economic mismanagement it will make the contrast between chavismo with chávez and without chávez even stronger a small silver lining is the results in bolivar state andres velasquez is a fighter and will go as far as he can to demand his rights he will probably lose his appeal in the end but he should go ahead and publish all of the actas on the internet for the world to see and leaders from other states should go and support him and so we wait for jan 10th or jan 5th while regional leaders tell us chavez is very sick our own leaders tell us everything is under control and respiratory infections are controlled in hours in another miracle of the cuban medicine that did chavez in maduro says chavez is improving day by day while diosdado suggests that jan 10th can be postponed sure so can the whole constitution maybe it would be easier to just get rid of it and do whatever they want all the time at least there would be no uncertainties posted in uncategorized 27 comments will falcon ask to be the candidate december 17 2012 and now the most important question left is will falcón ask to be the candidate fr the opposition in a future presidential race if i were him i would think long term and pass i don t believe he can build a successful national campaign in the short time that is likely to be available but ambition and the fact he has that mysterious piece of dna that drives politicians to desire power may short circuit such a rational decision but i hear that he is already talking about it the difficulty is that he can not come out today and say he wants to be the candidate he has to wait until the sequence of events develops on its own before he can do anything about it publicly otherwise it would not only be in terrible taste but it may alienate the same electorate that he wants to attract from the chavismo light end of things the second question is what will capriles do if falcón wants it i think he should hand over the baton and not even fight it he blew it and he can t blow it again if he loses against maduro he is done as a presidential possible he may be done already anyway the time to think long term and high risk was back in october and he failed to see it so now the opposition faces the reality of really having two chavista candidates running for president oh wait that happened once already in fact the guy who was the opposition candidate then happened to win last night for psuv in zulia state oh well posted in uncategorized 47 comments some thoughts on the results of venezuela s regional elections december 16 2012 we still don t know the official abstention number 40 and the total number of votes for each side the latter remains a very important number going forward capriles number is ok but not great should make him the candidate against maduro if abstention is as high as has been said clearly 40 plus chavismo would like the capriles maduro face off to be sooner rather than later as i have been predicting time works against chavismo seems like maduro would win an election that takes place soon merida and tachira are hard to understand chavez lost in both and now the psuv candidates manage to score a win does this mean vielma mora is the most viable chavista candidate for the chavismo sin chavez era jaua has never won an election arias lost one maduro has never run for anything but head of the subway union and diosdado lost to capriles once vielam mora on the other hand ran almsot on his own and won man to watch out pablo perez was terrible he did not deliver on october 7th he did not deliver today maybe maracuchos should stop saying that the country does not accept maracuchos zulia seems to have problems with them the salas in carabobo should learn that you can t expect to stay so long in power people do get tired to me abstention is a puzzle it is fine to argue that chavez is the only one that get the vote out but to have 30 of the electorate decide not to vote less than three months after chavez victory in october is a complex mystery to me whatever happened to the sympathy vote what turned the voters off in 75 days we are talking about the fact that in this election only about the same number of people that voted for chavez in october went out to vote is this reasonable i don t think so because chavismo did not do much better than in october so you can t say the oppo vote was weak a lot of chavistas stayed home why maybe capriles should say falcon will be his vice president but again let chavistas deal with the economic adjustment they created the distortions let them deal with it a maduro win may not be so bad for the future after all any people that elect rodriguez chacin as their governor deserve worse and with rangel silva winning we now have two people blacklisted by the us government for their involvement in drug trafficking it was bad for the opposition to only win three governorships but chavismo can t feel good about the abstention level from the numbers available abstention was more than 40 much more than in 2008 the fact this happens so soon after the most successful election in terms of abstention for chavismo and in the midst of chavez recurrence raises a lot of questions bolivar is still up for grabs did not expect that given the abstention levels in such a chavista state andres velasquez will put up a fight he deserves a chance the bolivar union workers never had a better friend and activist than velasquez but they have never given him the power had velasquez won in 1994 venezuela s history would have been much different and for the better finally the head of the electoral board did a terrible job reading the results she read the numbers wrong did not give candidate totals and when she gave bolivar s results she said twice the were not irreversible but then gave the wrong numbers she tries to grab the attention and then screws up now the guessing game begins another election in two months three months four months my guess is think soon rather than later how does february 3nd sound to you the 10th is carnival just wondering posted in uncategorized 20 comments official results at 9 00 pm in venezuela regional elections december 16 2012 first official results zulia opposition loses miranda a win for capriles 6 lara a win for falcon amazonas for the opposition barinas for psuv monagas psuv wins anzoategui aristobulo 53 to 41 opposition loses apure psuv wins aragua psuv 52 to 42 7 barnas psuv 54 to 41 adan chavez carabobo ameliach 53 49 to 42 7 cojedes psuv 59 to 35 opposition delta amacuro psuv 71 pj 20 99 falcon psuv 48 28 pj 35 28 guarico psuv 70 1 ad 25 5 lara falcon 54 psuv 41 98 merida psuv 47 56 pj 37 96 miranda capriles 50 5 psuv 46 5 monagas psuv wins portuguesa psuv 50 2 sucre psuv 55 77 35 opposition tachira psuv wins trujillo 79 4 psuv vargas psuv 69 yaracuy psuv 57 8 zulia arias cardenas 50 99 nueva esparta psuv wins amazonas opposition wins 56 bolivar psuv 45 41 opposition 44 64 seems opoosition wins three states and incredibly loses merida and tachira where chavez lost in october posted in uncategorized 26 comments venezuelan regional election update at 8 30 pm december 16 2012 the best electoral system in the world according to jimmy who carter can t call any of the 23 gubernatorial elections at 8 30 pm tonight but the devil hea...
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