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fip and adjust for park factors that s fwar clayton kershaw dodgers 6 5 noah syndergaard mets 6 5 jose fernandez marlins 6 2 max scherzer nationals 5 6 johnny cueto giants 5 5 i like this list the most so far but it s still topped by a guy who pitched for 2 3 of the season and compiled fwar by striking out guys and not walking anyone was he still the most valuable pitcher by aggregated run prevention that s rwar max scherzer nationals 6 2 johnny cueto giants 5 6 clayton kershaw dodgers 5 6 tanner roark nationals 5 5 carlos martinez cardinals 5 4 these are some new names there s not much consensus this year between fip based war and ra9 based war of course at this point we know neither measure is ideal right pitchers can t control how the defense plays behind them but some have proven better at influencing weak contact right let s check baseball prospectus s deserved run average clayton kershaw dodgers 2 03 in too few innings jose fernandez marlins 2 23 rich hill dodgers 2 63 in too few innings noah syndergaard mets 2 71 stephen strasburg nationals 2 85 so the short timers are back and the cubs whose defense got everybody out are nowhere to be found let s apply volume again that s warp jose fernandez marlins 6 5 clayton kershaw dodgers 5 8 noah syndergaard mets 5 6 madison bumgarner giants 5 5 jon lester cubs 5 3 so the most valuable pitcher in the national league was kershaw unless it was scherzer or fernandez or one of the three qualified era leaders i m stumped let s try something i ve used the last few years a hybrid approach using fangraphs data that gives full credit to fip wins strikeouts walks homers half credit to bip wins what happens when the ball is put in play and quarter credit to lob wins everything else that keeps runs off the board clayton kershaw dodgers 6 975 max scherzer nationals 6 425 johnny cueto giants 5 8 noah syndergaard mets 5 775 kyle hendricks cubs 5 675 jose fernandez marlins 5 65 madison bumgarner giants 5 625 jon lester cubs 5 575 jake arrieta cubs 4 825 tanner roark nationals 4 325 i ve been accused by friends of being a fipster and it s true that i prefer strikeouts walks and home runs allowed as a measure of a pitcher s effectiveness to run prevention that said preventing runs matters and i can t ignore baseball prospectus telling me that the late jose fernandez was the league s most valuable this year my official ballot which could change with a stiff wind looks like this kershaw scherzer syndergaard fernandez hendricks american league let s look at all those same stats for the al starting with era aaron sanchez blue jays 3 00 justin verlander tigers 3 04 michael fulmer tigers 3 06 in too few innings to qualify masahiro tanaka yankees 3 07 corey kluber indians 3 14 then fip james paxton mariners 2 80 in too few innings yu darvish rangers 3 09 in too few innings corey kluber indians 3 26 rick porcello red sox 3 40 chris sale white sox 3 46 again we ve got a few starters who had great years in limited action i used 100 innings as my threshold for all these lists so the two names at the top above were a surprise let s use fwar to see who held that great fip through a long season rick porcello red sox 5 2 justin verlander tigers 5 2 chris sale white sox 5 2 corey kluber indians 5 1 jose quintana white sox 4 8 so this is going to be pretty close isn t it let s look at rwar justin verlander tigers 6 6 chris sale white sox 6 5 masahiro tanaka yankees 5 4 jose quintana white sox 5 2 rick porcello red sox 5 0 baseball reference seems to think this is a two man race does baseball prospectus agree here s dra yu darvish rangers 2 56 in too few innings michael pineda yankees 2 58 cole hamels rangers 2 65 chris sale white sox 2 69 carlos carrasco indians 2 69 not by this measure pineda had a 4 82 era and a 3 80 fip apparently his 2016 was among the most extreme miscarriages of justice we ve ever seen on a baseball field onto warp chris sale white sox 7 0 justin verlander tigers 6 8 david price red sox 6 5 cole hamels rangers 6 2 corey kluber indians 5 9 ok we re back to those two names finally my hybrid war justin verlander tigers 6 05 rick porcello red sox 5 825 corey kluber indians 5 575 chris sale white sox 5 5 jose quintana white sox 5 1 masahiro tanaka yankees 5 1 aaron sanchez blue jays 4 675 david price red sox 4 35 ja happ blue jays 4 075 marco estrada blue jays 3 875 in the nl i see eight starters who could reasonably win the cy young award in the al it s probably six none of these guys stands out enough to prevent a reliever like zach britton from stealing the real award though rick porcello s winz will probably be enough i ll save the relievers for their own award as to my ballot the top spot comes down to verlander and sale who threw almost the same number of innings with the same fwar rwar within a tenth of a win in favor of verlander and warp within two tenths in favor of sale verlander had more strikeouts sale had fewer walks here s my tiebreaker verlander threw his 227 2 3 innings in 34 starts sale threw his 226 2 3 in 32 that means sale went deeper into games on average sparing his bullpen and accumulating the same value in slightly fewer opportunities basically i m choosing dominance over volume though neither candidate has an obvious advantage in either of those domains sale verlander porcello kluber quintana posted in uncategorized 1 comment 2016 mvp ballots posted on november 1 2016 by bryan unless your team wins the world series there are few days on the calendar sadder than the day the last out settles into a player s glove and baseball slips into hibernation among the few reprieves from the long dark winter are big ticket free agent signings hall of fame voting season and award season before those dark days befall us i d like to jump ahead to award season by sharing the ballots i would gladly submit to any authority interested in my opinion i ll start with the mvp awards because they re not as interesting as the cy young awards if you ve been here before you probably know which guys will find their names at the top of my ballots i ll list my top ten in each league national league 10 buster posey giants i m a believer in war as a starting point for mvp discussions and between the two versions of war it often permeates the entire conversation after all what is value if not the sum of a player s offensive and defensive contributions to his team s success the one place i m willing to veer furthest off the war course is with catcher evaluation catching is a different job with a different degree of difficulty and anyone who can do it well and also provide offensive value is among the league s most valuable players posey had a pedestrian year with the bat at least by his standards hitting 288 362 454 with 14 home runs that s still the second best line among nl catchers and the value he provides defensively more than makes up for the difference between his bat and that of say teammate brandon belt another contender for this spot 9 dexter fowler cubs in april and may fowler was probably the best player in the national league in april and may the cubs established themselves as the best team in baseball and a certain playoff participant he missed some time and finished slower but that 393 obp looks pretty good on a guy with fowler s wheels and a decent glove 8 brandon crawford giants defensively there wasn t a better player in the national league in 2016 than crawford at least according to fangraphs which gives him credit for 28 fielding runs above average 6 better than runner up freddy galvis crawford brought the bat to work this year too hitting 275 342 430 with 12 homers and 7 stolen bases 7 justin turner dodgers like crawford turner excelled with the bat 27 homers 124 wrc and the glove 16 fraa he s quietly been among the best players on one of the best teams in baseball for the past three seasons 6 anthony rizzo cubs rizzo s offensive numbers 292 385 544 were almost identical to teammate kris bryant s 292 385 554 bryant s the better fielder and the better baserunner but bryant certainly owes many of his league leading 121 runs to rizzo s monster year 5 freddie freeman braves by the time freeman started hitting the braves were about 80 games behind washington and his 34 homers didn t mean much but his 18 second half homers and his 177 second half wrc were both second in the nl and he led the league in war in september all told he hit 302 400 569 for a braves team that had few other bright spots 4 daniel murphy nationals i don t often give bonus points for team performance but murphy hit a lot like freeman 347 390 595 with 25 homers for a team whose games were meaningful all season so while both keepers of war prefer freeman i m willing to bump murphy ahead 3 nolan arenado rockies nolan arenado hit 41 home runs this year and plays some of the best third base defense in baseball it s hard to fathom that not being enough to finish in the top two in mvp voting but well colorado i guess arenado s biggest weakness coming into this season was patience as he d never compiled an obp above 330 in 2016 he walked in almost 10 of his plate appearances jumping his obp to 362 with a 570 slugging percentage to boot arenado s advocates will tell you that he hit 16 of his homers outside of colorado and that he s not a product of the ballpark and while there s truth to that his 277 340 492 line at sub denver altitudes doesn t exactly look like that of the rest of the guys in this top five except maybe for the slick fielding shortstop 2 corey seager dodgers here s that shortstop the one who was born in 1994 the one who batted 308 365 512 with 26 home runs for the division winning dodgers with great fielding and good baserunning fangraphs tells us his season was worth 7 5 war second only to this guy 1 kris bryant cubs he might win the real mvp award unanimously he probably should 292 395 554 39 homers 8 stolen bases good glove good legs and those eyes the 103 wins don t hurt his case either american league 10 kyle seager mariners 9 robinson cano mariners seattle s 2nd and 3rd basemen had eerily similar years with wrc s of 138 and 133 respectively positive but not elite defensive numbers and negative but not atrocious baserunning numbers cano 39 homers to seager s 30 relies more on power to drive his offensive value while seager 10 2 walk rate to cano s 6 6 depends more on patience 8 adrian beltre rangers i m not convinced there will ever be another year when beltre isn t one of the ten best players in the american league in 2016 at age 37 he hit 300 358 521 with typical beltre defense the one great player on a surprisingly great team his last hit was his 2 942nd his last home run his 445th a legend 7 david ortiz red sox war disagrees with this pick ortiz finished 22nd among al position players in fwar and 17th in rwar offensively though ortiz was the second best player in baseball his 315 401 620 line equating to a 163 wrc he hit 38 home runs and 48 doubles in his age 40 season that s got to be worth some bonus points right 6 francisco lindor indians it s tempting to cheat lindor up a few spots after his postseason coming out party but this seems like the best spot for his regular season exploits he batted 301 with 15 homers 19 stolen bases and the best defense in the american league and it seems he may still go up from here 5 manny machado orioles when machado broke into the league everybody knew he could play shortstop the orioles decided to sign jj hardy presumably to keep the pressure off and let machado hone his hitting skills so he became the best defensive third baseman in baseball this year with hardy injured machado played 45 games at short and was as good as just about anyone in the league before moving back to third and making breathtaking play after breathtaking play throw his 37 homers on top of the second best infield defense in the al and he s one of the league s five best players if he can take 25 more walks next year he might be the second best 4 jose altuve astros being 5 6 has probably kept a lot of really good athletes from plying their trade professionally it was probably a hindrance to altuve at various times in his young life in 2016 though it won him the sporting news player of the year award over at least three more valuable players sure he hit 338 stole 30 bases and even hit a surprising 24 home runs he also provided less defensive and baserunning value than any of the three names to come i don t mean to sell altuve short he s a great player coming off a truly great season but let s not make a mountain out of a molehill 3 josh donaldson blue jays narratives can be a funny thing last year the blue jays surged to the front of the american league east for the first time since it s been a five team league in his first year on the team donaldson had a 154 wrc hit 41 homers and won the mvp award in 2016 the blue jays contended for the division title all year and made the playoffs led by donaldson s 155 wrc and 37 homers he might not finish in the top five in mvp voting it s true that his defense and baserunning were down a tick this year costing him a win above replacement and that the blue jays finished second but donaldson was basically the same guy this year as last year 2 mookie betts red sox perhaps to a greater degree than usual some of the game s greatest skills are concentrated with a few players fangraphs tells us that mookie betts was the game s most valuable baserunner in 2016 contributing 9 8 runs above average baseball reference tells us he was the best fielder at least according to his positional peers with an incredible 32 fielding runs thanks in large part to coming to bat 730 times betts was also the third most valuable offensive player in the american league if only he weren t playing in the same league as this guy 1 mike trout angels there s not much left to write about this guy he was by far the best hitter in baseball with a 315 441 550 line while playing half his games in a pitchers park he hit 29 homers and stole 30 bases he s still an above average outfielder and added more value on the bases than any major leaguer other than betts there s mike trout and there s everyone else posted in angels astros blue jays braves cubs dodgers giants indians mariners nationals orioles postseason awards rangers red sox rockies 2 comments forecasting october with playoff runs posted on october 3 2016 by bryan if you ve paid any attention to baseball over the past decade or so you know that playoff results are governed by something other than logic there is no formula that can identify a great playoff team october baseball is driven by some combination of heart guts grit and randomness a little heavier on the last one that paragraph served as the introduction to my 2015 mlb playoff preview an excuse perhaps for the inevitable failure of the playoff runs model i d just created as it turns out playoff runs worked pretty well whether by chance or due to some underlying 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