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description= 4 posts published by moctavio during March 2015;
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pdvsa 2022 bond with a 6 coupon in stealth mode last october which it sold to the central bank this issue has yet to be sold in the market what are they waiting for a recovery in prices pdvsa which is rumored to have bought back close to a billion cash in its short term bonds could be preparing some sort of liability management operation that would seem to be the only justification for buying back bonds some people claim they sre just buying back to pay less in october can they be that naive or is the same intelligence behind the petrocaribe citgo and gold transactions is preparing some form of exchange for the pdvsa 2015 2016 and 2017 bonds what is clear is that the government considers default only a last minute option something that will be tested if the judge in the gold reserve case rules against venezuela and declares it in default we suspect venezuela will simply pay at that time the same way it is likely to pay next october even if half of the market thinks they will not but 2016 is a whole different ball game but in the mean time to close the fiscal and balance of payments gap it can t continue to kick the can down the road oil may rise but it may not bonds may recover or they may not china may lend more or not but venezuelan has to act the sooner the better the puzzle is what are they waiting for posted in uncategorized 21 comments by now nothing shocks venezuelans march 21 2015 after sixteen years of chavismo it would seem as venezuelans have been anesthetized against the daily scandals and horrors that are reported or occur report of tens of millions of dollars paid in commissions to venezuelan government officials barely raise an eyebrow people hear the dance of millions and can no longer tell between 100 million dollars or 2 billion dollars they hear us 2 billion was siphoned off pdvsa and it seems as if the question is what else is new not what an extraordinary amount this is or that an additional 2 2 billion was laundered via the same bank in andorra the venezuelan government prosecutor national assembly don t even bother to comment on all of these accusations the opposition we have heard almost nothing from them either i mean giordani a former minister of chavismo said there were 22 billion in fake imports in 2013 in venezuela and nothing happened a pittance of 50 million or 4 billion appears to be largely irrelevant the problem is that the billions add up and that is why there are shortages and lines and venezuelan billionaires all over the planet but forget about money most venezuelans can barely understand what a billion dollars is or what a government could do with it but we should all understand the value of a human life but from protests to prisons to daily events the value of human life has been devalued as much of the value of one hundred million dollars in the minds of most venezuelans there are daily reports of deaths in caracas alone nineteen cops have been killed so far in caracas in 2015 and it is only march six students get killed shot thru the head and the government reacts as if this was the most natural thing in the world a high ranking diplomat even dares to make a joke about it later saying that people did not understand his black humor very black and very aberrant too the president orders the government s weapons and bullet monopoly cavim to code all bullets and two years later nothing has been done the business of selling bullets in the black market is too hard to pass up much like increasing the price of gas or the bs 6 3 per us cencoex rate meanwhile it is the same bullets that kill the much beloved people every day just yesterday a man was shot to death in front of his wife a murderer was shot to death by police as they were trying to arrest him and a man walking with his wife in one of caracas most centric squares was shot and killed by someone in a passing car most of these murders not even get attention by the press the people are immune to the news a kidnapper tells a canadian reporter that it is not a matter of right or wrong killing his victims it is a matter of surviving in the easiest way to earn a living in venezuela the price of a human life in venezuela all of three hundred bucks when it has a price most of the time there is just no price it is simply free like the daily murders in venezuela jails and the government says nothing and the people have gotten so used to it they don t even react and just as i thought i had heard it all the most horrific story takes place a couple was traveling to caracas with a relative driving a bunch of motorcycles were leading a funeral funeral procession and they attempted to block the way so that the procession could proceed preferentially the driver does not obey the orders of the motorcycle riders the motorcycle riders shoot at the car spraying it with bullets the couple was killed and so was the woman s kid in her womb the woman was pregnant she is the 40th woman to be shot in caracas so far in 2015 the story is not even front page news is not on tv the government makes no comment neither does the police there will be no special investigation this is a daily occurrence they are all anesthetized against the horror the murders the scandals nothing shocks them it has become a way of life posted in uncategorized 46 comments chavismo no scruples no compassion march 10 2015 so many things happening where does one begin today there is only one place this remarkable statement by venezuela s ambassador to the oas when i am trying to understand what happened to compassion among other venezuelan government officials here comes this well educated christian who used to lead missions looking for peace in central america and makes such a crude statement full of hate describing how a bullet would go faster through the empty head of someone from the opposition how did mr chaderton convert to fanatical revolutionary at which point his ambition his thirst for power turned him against over half of the population of the country when did mr chaderton lose part of his humanity if it can happen to him who had all of the tools education idealism religion to respect and have compassion for his fellow venezuelans what can we expect from the less educated militaristic ideological members of chavismo even worse can we turn his around can we make venezuela a country where everyone respects everyone where opinions are voiced without eliciting violent responses i really don t know i wanted to write about the interpretations of the maduro obama clash but does it matter in the big scale of things the current conflict between maduro and obama and all of its nuances seems simply irrelevant how far are these guys willing to go preserve their power when the response to the ban from the us of the head of the intelligence police for human rights violations is to name him minister of interior and justice who cares about strategies and whether obama should or should not have issued the ban in response to maduro s demand that he reduce the members of the us embassy in venezuela once again it boils down to no compassion and no scruples chavismo lacks both maduro is at this moment addressing the national assembly so that it gives him enabling powers to fight us imperialism in reality he is asking for an enabling bill so that when the opposition wins the upcoming parliamentary elections whenever they are held he can go and change any and all bills that take away powers from the national assembly this is simply a variation on what i predicted three weeks ago except that i thought maduro would let the assembly legislate but instead he wants to control the process he has even less scruples that i assumed that is chavista democracy if the other side wins take away the victory via subterfuge and call unasur so that they certify that what you did is legal meanwhile the explicit mention by fincen that at the banca privada d andorra the bank used schemes to help siphon off us 2 billion from pdvsa is not even news in venezuela self censorship two billion ten billion twenty billion who cares maybe those responsible now occupy very high positions in pdvsa there are no medicines but the government will buy 20 000 fingerprint machines to control purchases at supermarkets and so on each one of these would be a story in itself under normal conditions but things ceased being normal in venezuela long ago and when those running the show have neither scruples nor compassion the end can only be a tragedy an even bigger tragedy that the one venezuela is living today posted in uncategorized 93 comments i will turn you into powder march 5 2015 twice in one year venezuelan government officials have said i will turn you into powder referring to the parallel or black market for the exchange of bolívars into us dollars last year it was mr rafael ramirez that said it he is long gone this year it was none other than nicolas maduro i am not implying anything by the similarity other than the fact that it has been shown how little they have understood the implications of the systems they implemented last year it was sicad 2 a sort of glorified sitme the previous system this year it was the creation of simadi a kludgy system with little logic or connection with the reality of markets a system so badly conceived that i thought it would utterly fail but i never thought it would fail so fast in barely two weeks siamdi has become sicad 2 at a higher rate of exchange of bs 170 per us instead of bs 50 per us nothing more nothing less and as i said the system never was free nor unlimited nor market driven all of which guaranteed its failure and it failed within a week as shown in this plot yes today it was higher the parallel market dollar has soared while the simadi rate remains at bs 177 per us any chance that the government had to succeed failed when 1 they set the simadi rate below the parallel rate 2 they failed to supply the private system with dollars only giving foreign currency to government owned banks and 3 they limited any transaction to bs 180 per us as those who had waited for a month for simadi got nothing the parallel rate soared going from 190 to 284 per today that point is not in the graph which i made up yesterday so by now simadi has become a glorified or amplified sicad 2 exept the rate it is bs 177 instead of bs 50 and the graph above implies that simadi is dead on arrival you see besides my objections before here and here by setting and holding the simadi rate lower with the parallel soaring arbitrage becomes too much of an incentive go to your nearest casa de cambio gets us 300 at bs 177 and sell it in the other market at bs 280 the same if you go to bank or broker that gives you higher amounts you buy it sell it higher and you make more than a months salary for a fairly good job the government simply screwed in is naive belief that anyone would like to bring their foreign currency back that with 100 inflation and higher soon anyone would not buy currency and wait a few months instead it created this dumb system forcing each bank to operate with its clients each broker with its clients and government owned banks to receive foreign currency to give to its clients chosen who knows how but creating a huge distortion in the system but even government owned banks are not getting enough and you can bet some of it filters back to the parallel market it is too nice an opportunity to pass up with any normal government this would just require adjusting the system and trying again but this is far from being a normal government first they really thought they could control the market they really believed that people would bring dollars back to become rich at bs 177 per us it did not happen and now it would take as long as to set up the new system to adjust it consult check with the ideologues check with the president check with the military but most of all it will take understanding to convince themselves that something is wrong with their system after all they were supposed to turn the black market into powder not the other way around posted in uncategorized 68 comments march 2015 m t w t f s s 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 feb apr unknown feed an error has occurred the feed is probably down try again later subscribe to blog via email enter your email address to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email email address subscribe join 1 851 other subscribers categories digressions dissidentmilitary el excremento del diablo granmalies latinamerica maletagatetrial orchids pictures posters requena files rr models stanford bank tascon s fascist list technology the fable the fonden papers the opposition candidates uncategorized venezuela all blogs by miguel octavio el excremento del diablo miguel s charts miguel s orchids the devil s excrement blogroll alfredo caracas gringo daniel excremento del diablo gustavo coronel javier letter from venezuela liberal venezolano megaresistencia mi venezuela pedro mario quico y juan urru veneconomia blogs by venezuelans bruni the venezuelan libertarian recent posts hyper inflated arepa index reaches all time high again hyper inflated arepa index hits an all time high the devil is back with uii why doesn t the government change course something has to give archives march 2018 january 2018 november 2017 april 2017 march 2017 february 2017 october 2016 july 2016 june 2016 may 2016 april 2016 march 2016 february 2016 january 2016 december 2015 november 2015 october 2015 september 2015 august 2015 july 2015 june 2015 may 2015 april 2015 march 2015 february 2015 january 2015 december 2014 november 2014 october 2014 september 2014 august 2014 july 2014 june 2014 may 2014 april 2014 march 2014 february 2014 january 2014 december 2013 november 2013 october 2013 september 2013 august 2013 july 2013 june 2013 may 2013 april 2013 march 2013 february 2013 january 2013 december 2012 november 2012 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