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apital as distinguished from the export of commodities acquires exceptional importance 4 the formation of international monopolist capitalist associations which share the world among themselves and 5 the territorial division of the whole world among the biggest capitalist powers is completed 117 lenin concluded that these five features of imperialism had been established by the turn of the 20th century after the great powers had spent the final decades of the prior century acquiring nearly all the remaining territory of the world that had not yet been colonized 118 the largest and most lucrative uncolonized or semi colonized territories at the time of the war were that of persia iran turkey including all of the pre industrial territories of the declining ottoman empire and most of china beyond the treaty ports 118 having completed the division of the world among themselves at the beginning of the century the developed capitalist states would thereafter compete for hegemony in the form of a redivision of those territories both in the industrialized areas e g german appetite for belgium french appetite for lorraine and in primarily agrarian areas 117 119 other views edit the united kingdom s pound sterling was the primary reserve currency of much of the world in the 19th century and the first half of the 20th century the united kingdom was the primary exporter of manufactured goods and services and over 60 of world trade was invoiced in pounds sterling british banks were also expanding overseas london was the world centre for insurance and commodity markets and british capital was the leading source of foreign investment around the world sterling soon became the standard currency used for international commercial transactions 120 richard hamilton observed that the argument went that since industrialists and bankers were seeking raw materials new markets and new investments overseas if one was strategically blocked by other powers the obvious or necessary solution was war 121 hamilton somewhat criticized the view that the war was launched to secure colonies but agreed that imperialism may have been on the mind of key decision makers he argued that it was not necessarily for logical economic reasons hamilton noted that bismarck was famously not moved by such peer pressure and ended germany s limited imperialist movement he regarded colonial ambitions as a waste of money but simultaneously recommended them to other nations 122 while some bankers and industrialists tried to curb wilhelm ii away from war their efforts ended in failure there is no evidence they ever received a direct response from the kaiser chancellor or foreign secretary or that their advice was discussed in depth by the foreign office or the general staff the german leadership measured power not in financial ledgers but land and military might 123 hamilton argued that generally speaking the european business leaders were in favour of profits and peace allowed for stability and investment opportunities across national borders but war brought the disruption of trade the confiscation of holdings and the risk of increased taxation while arms manufacturers could make money selling weapons at home they could also lose access to foreign markets krupp a major arms manufacturer started the war with 48 million marks in profits but ended it 148 million marks in debt and the first year of peace saw further losses of 36 million marks 124 125 william mulligan argues that while economic and political factors were often interdependent economic factors tended towards peace prewar trade wars and financial rivalries never threatened to escalate into conflict governments would mobilise bankers and financiers to serve their interests rather than the reverse the commercial and financial elite recognized peace as necessary for economic development and used its influence to resolve diplomatic crises economic rivalries existed but were framed largely by political concerns prior to the war there were few signs that the international economy stood for war in the summer of 1914 126 social darwinism edit main article social darwinism social darwinism was a theory of human evolution loosely based on darwinism that influenced many european intellectuals and strategic thinkers from 1870 to 1914 it emphasised that struggle between nations and races was natural and that only the fittest nations deserved to survive 127 it gave an impetus to german assertiveness as a world economic and military power aimed at competing with france and britain for world power german colonial rule in africa from 1884 to 1914 was an expression of nationalism and moral superiority which was justified by constructing an image of the natives as other the approach highlighted racist views of mankind german colonization was characterized by the use of repressive violence in the name of culture and civilisation germany s cultural missionary project boasted that its colonial programmes were humanitarian and educational endeavours furthermore the wide acceptance of social darwinism by intellectuals justified germany s right to acquire colonial territories as a matter of the survival of the fittest according to the historian michael schubert 128 129 the model suggested an explanation of why some ethnic groups then called races had been for so long antagonistic such as germans and slavs they were natural rivals destined to clash senior german generals like helmuth von moltke the younger talked in apocalyptic terms about the need for germans to fight for their existence as a people and culture macmillan states reflecting the social darwinist theories of the era many germans saw slavs especially russia as the natural opponent of the teutonic races 130 also the chief of the austro hungarian general staff declared a people that lays down its weapons seals its fate 130 in july 1914 the austrian press described serbia and the south slavs in terms that owed much to social darwinism 130 in 1914 the german economist johann plenge described the war as a clash between the german ideas of 1914 duty order justice and the french ideas of 1789 liberty equality fraternity 131 william mulligen argues that anglo german antagonism was also about a clash of two political cultures as well as more traditional geopolitical and military concerns britain admired germany for its economic successes and social welfare provision but also regarded germany as illiberal militaristic and technocratic 132 war was seen as a natural and viable or even useful instrument of policy war was compared to a tonic for a sick patient or a life saving operation to cut out diseased flesh 130 since war was natural for some leaders it was simply a question of timing and so it would be better to have a war when the circumstances were most propitious i consider a war inevitable declared moltke in 1912 the sooner the better 133 in german ruling circles war was viewed as the only way to rejuvenate germany russia was viewed as growing stronger every day and it was believed that germany had to strike while it still could before it was crushed by russia 134 nationalism made war a competition between peoples nations or races rather than kings and elites 135 social darwinism carried a sense of inevitability to conflict and downplayed the use of diplomacy or international agreements to end warfare it tended to glorify warfare the taking of initiative and the warrior male role 136 social darwinism played an important role across europe but j leslie has argued that it played a critical and immediate role in the strategic thinking of some important hawkish members of the austro hungarian government 137 social darwinism therefore normalized war as an instrument of policy and justified its use citation needed arms race edit french and german troop dispositions along their common border 1913 by the 1870s to 1880s all the major powers were preparing for a large scale war although none expected one 138 britain neglected its small army but focused on building up the royal navy which was already stronger than the next two largest navies combined germany france austria italy russia and some smaller countries set up conscription systems in which young men would serve from one to three years in the army and then spend the next twenty years or so in the reserves with annual summer training men with higher social status became officers each country devised a mobilization system to call up reserves quickly and send them to key points by rail citation needed every year general staffs updated and expanded their plans in terms of complexity each country stockpiled arms and supplies for an army that ran into the millions germany in 1874 had a regular professional army of 420 000 with an additional 1 3 million reserves by 1897 the regular army was 545 000 strong and the reserves 3 4 million the french in 1897 had 3 4 million reservists austria 2 6 million and russia 4 0 million the size of military manpower increased conscription law changes in france in 1913 for example boosted numbers in the french military on the eve of conflict 139 the various national war plans had been perfected by 1914 but with russia and austria trailing in effectiveness recent wars since 1865 had typically been short a matter of months all war plans called for a decisive opening and assumed victory would come after a short war none planned for the food and munitions needs of the long stalemate that actually unfolded from 1914 to 1918 140 141 as david stevenson puts it a self reinforcing cycle of heightened military preparedness was an essential element in the conjuncture that led to disaster the armaments race was a necessary precondition for the outbreak of hostilities david herrmann goes further by arguing that the fear that windows of opportunity for victorious wars were closing meaning that the arms race did precipitate the first world war if the assassination of franz ferdinand had occurred in 1904 or even in 1911 herrmann speculates there might have been no war it was the armaments race and the speculation about imminent or preventive wars that made his death in 1914 the trigger for war 142 one of the aims of the first hague conference of 1899 held at the suggestion of emperor nicholas ii of russia was to discuss disarmament the second hague conference took place in 1907 all signatories except for germany supported disarmament germany also did not want to agree to binding arbitration and mediation the kaiser was concerned that the united states would propose disarmament measures which he opposed all parties tried to revise international law to their own advantage 143 anglo german naval race edit main article anglo german naval arms race 1909 cartoon in the american magazine puck shows clockwise us germany britain france and japan engaged in naval race in a no limit game historians have debated the role of the german naval buildup as the principal cause of deteriorating anglo german relations in any case germany never came close to catching up with britain citation needed supported by wilhelm ii s enthusiasm for an expanded german navy grand admiral alfred von tirpitz championed four fleet acts from 1898 to 1912 from 1902 to 1910 britain s royal navy embarked on its own massive expansion to keep ahead of the germans the competition came to focus on the revolutionary new ships based on the design of dreadnought which was launched in 1906 and gave britain a battleship that far outclassed any other in europe 144 145 naval strength of powers in 1914 country personnel large naval vessels dreadnoughts tonnage russia 54 000 4 328 000 france 68 000 10 731 000 britain 209 000 29 2 205 000 total 331 000 43 3 264 000 germany 79 000 17 1 019 000 austria hungary 16 000 4 249 000 total 95 000 21 1 268 000 source 146 the overwhelming british response proved to germany that its efforts were unlikely ever to equal those of the royal navy in 1900 the british had a 3 7 1 tonnage advantage over germany in 1910 the ratio was 2 3 1 and in 1914 it reached 2 1 1 ferguson argues so decisive was the british victory in the naval arms race that it is hard to regard it as in any meaningful sense a cause of the first world war 147 however the kaiserliche marine had narrowed the gap by nearly half and that the royal navy had had a long standing policy of surpassing any two potential opponents combined the us navy was in a period of growth which made the german gains seem very ominous in london citation needed in britain in 1913 there was intense internal debate about new ships because of the growing influence of admiral john fisher s ideas and increasing financial constraints in 1914 germany adopted a policy of building submarines instead of new dreadnoughts and destroyers effectively abandoning the naval arms race but berlin kept the new policy secret to delay other powers from following suit 148 russian interests in the balkans and the ottoman empire edit major russian goals included strengthening saint petersburg s role as the protector of eastern christians in the balkans such as in serbia 149 although russia enjoyed a booming economy growing population and large armed forces its strategic position was threatened by an expanding ottoman military trained by german experts and using the latest technology the start of the war re focussed attention on old russian goals expelling the ottomans from constantinople extending russian dominion into eastern anatolia and persian azerbaijan and annexing galicia conquest of the straits would have assured russian predominance in the black sea and russian access to the mediterranean 150 technical and military factors edit short war illusion edit traditional narratives of the war suggested that when the war began both sides believed that the war would end quickly rhetorically speaking there was an expectation that the war would be over by christmas in 1914 that is important for the origins of the conflict since it suggests that since it was expected that the war would be short statesmen tended not to take gravity of military action as seriously as they might have done otherwise modern historians suggest a nuanced approach there is ample evidence to suggest that statesmen and military leaders thought the war would be lengthy and terrible and have profound political consequences citation needed while it is true all military leaders planned for a swift victory many military and civilian leaders recognized that the war might be long and highly destructive citation needed the principal german and french military leaders including moltke ludendorff and joffre expected a long war 151 british secretary of state for war lord kitchener expected a long war three years or longer he told an amazed colleague citation needed moltke hoped that if a european war broke out it would be resolved swiftly but he also conceded that it might drag on for years wreaking immeasurable ruin asquith wrote of the approach of armageddon...
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