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description= 15 posts published by Lars Syll during May 2019;
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power (3), wie (3), structure (3), into (3), har (3), teorier (3), metodologiska (3), man (3), vetenskapen (3), vetenskapsteoretiska (3), paul (3), textbook (3), permanent (3), lead (3), must (3), level (3), want (3), heute (3), alors (3), mmt (3), sans (3), intérêt (3), cas (3), atteint (3), travail (3), création (3), encore (3), relative (3), often (3), questions (3), internal (3), external (3), rather (3), ought (3), ontology (3), closed (3), precise (3), logic (3), axiomatic (3), self (3), least (3), argument (3), knowledge (3), cette (3), savoir (3), années (3), ont (3), ainsi (3), wage (3), jersey (3), pennsylvania (3), diminution (3), required (2), write (2), view (2), content (2), log (2), sign (2), subscribed (2), subscribe (2), wordpress (2), com (2), now (2), education (2), school (2), list (2), fredtorssander (2), democracy (2), outperforms (2), statistic (2), recent (2), like (2), follow (2), being (2), professor (2), leaves (2), limited (2), avec (2), revolution (2), 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lus stupéfiant c est que l augmentation du smic ne fasse pas même l objet d un débat en grande bretagne le gouvernement s appuie sur la low pay commission constituée de sept membres représentant les salariés et les employeurs ainsi que deux économistes il en est de même en allemagne où les deux économistes n ont au sein de la mindestlohnkommission pas le droit de vote en france le groupe d experts sur le smic est constitué de cinq économistes appartenant tous à la même école de pensée et c est peut être aussi cela que nous disent les gilets jaunes il est temps de substituer un débat démocratique à des conciliabules d arrière salle menés par des experts thibault gajdos yes indeed it is really against better knowledge to argue qu une augmentation du smic entraînerait une diminution de l emploi back in 1992 new jersey raised the minimum wage by 18 per cent while its neighbour state pennsylvania left its minimum wage unchanged unemployment in new jersey should according to mainstream economics textbooks have increased relative to pennsylvania however when economists alan krueger and david card gathered information on fast food restaurants in the two states it turned out that unemployment had actually decreased in new jersey relative to that in pennsylvania counter to neoclassical demand theory we had an anomalous case of a backward sloping supply curve lo and behold but of course when facts and theory don t agree it s the facts that have to be wrong the inverse relationship between quantity demanded and price is the core proposition in economic science which embodies the pre supposition that human choice behavior is sufficiently rational to allow predictions to be made just as no physicist would claim that water runs uphill no self respecting economist would claim that increases in the minimum wage increase employment such a claim if seriously advanced becomes equivalent to a denial that there is even minimal scientific content in economics and that in consequence economists can do nothing but write as advocates for ideological interests fortunately only a handful of economists are willing to throw over the teaching of two centuries we have not yet become a bevy of camp following whores james m buchanan wall street journal april 25 1996 les certitudes de la science économique 31 may 2019 at 21 16 posted in economics 1 comment ainsi la crise de 2008 a créé la surprise dans les rangs des économistes influents qui croyaient voir le monde entrer au xxie siècle dans le temps de la grande modération c est à dire la prévention des mouvements économiques erratiques grâce au pilotage scientifique des politiques monétaires a vrai dire la surprise reflètait la quasi absence toutes écoles confondues d un bon diagnostic des fragilités du système financier international cet épisode a sans conteste révélé une défaillance sévère du savoir économique alimentée par nombre de facteurs l un est la balkanisation du savoir en l occurrence sur le monde financier un autre encore l influence de l histoire est lié à la chute du mur de berlin pouvait on encore douter du triomphe du marché mais dans les années qui ont suivi la crise la contagion du doute a altéré la confiance en des analyses jusqu alors communément acceptées qu on pense au débat sur la stagnation séculaire ou au flou intellectuel des arguments justifiant la politique monétaire pourquoi cette perte de confiance envers les analyses des économistes nous vivons aujourd hui une seconde mondialisation dont la complexité spécifique et croissante ne se résume plus à la mécanique des marchés un vaste chantier de retour sur le savoir existant s est ouvert dont voici sans prétention à l exhaustivité quelques têtes de chapitre la mécanique de l innovation la coordination des anticipations dans un monde élargi et ouvert la distribution des revenus et les inégalités au sein des nations ou entre nations roger guesnerie contrary to guesnerie i think the confidence mainstream economists have in their own theories and models basically is a question of methodology when applying deductivist thinking to economics economists usually set up as if models based on a set of tight axiomatic assumptions from which consistent and precise inferences are made the beauty of this procedure is of course that if the axiomatic premises are true the conclusions necessarily follow the snag is that if the models are to be relevant we also have to argue that their precision and rigour still holds when they are applied to real world situations they often don t when addressing real economies the idealizations necessary for the deductivist machinery to work simply don t hold so how should we evaluate the search for ever greater precision and the concomitant arsenal of mathematical and formalist models to a large extent the answer hinges on what we want our models to perform and how we basically understand the world for keynes the world in which we live is inherently uncertain and quantifiable probabilities are the exception rather than the rule to every statement about it is attached a weight of argument that makes it impossible to reduce our beliefs and expectations to a one dimensional stochastic probability distribution if god does not play dice as einstein maintained keynes would add nor do people the world as we know it has limited scope for certainty and perfect knowledge its intrinsic and almost unlimited complexity and the interrelatedness of its organic parts prevent the possibility of treating it as constituted by legal atoms with discretely distinct separable and stable causal relations our knowledge accordingly has to be of a rather fallible kind to search for precision and rigour in such a world is self defeating at least if precision and rigour are supposed to assure external validity the only way to defend such an endeavour is to take a blind eye to ontology and restrict oneself to prove things in closed model worlds why we should care about these and not ask questions of relevance is hard to see we have to at least justify our disregard for the gap between the nature of the real world and our theories and models of it keynes once wrote that economics is a science of thinking in terms of models joined to the art of choosing models which are relevant to the contemporary world now if the real world is fuzzy vague and indeterminate then why should our models build upon a desire to describe it as precise and predictable even if there always has to be a trade off between theory internal validity and external validity we have to ask ourselves if our models are relevant models preferably ought to somehow reflect express correspond to reality i m not saying that the answers are self evident but at least you have to do some philosophical under labouring to rest your case too often that is wanting in modern economics just as it was when keynes in the 1930s complained about tinbergen s and other econometricians lack of justifications of the chosen models and methods human logic has to supplant the classical formal logic of deductivism if we want to have anything of interest to say of the real world we inhabit logic is a marvellous tool in mathematics and axiomatic deductivist systems but a poor guide for action in real world systems in which concepts and entities are without clear boundaries and continually interact and overlap in this world i would say we are better served with a methodology that takes into account that the more we know the more we know we don t know the models and methods we choose to work with have to be in conjunction with the economy as it is situated and structured epistemology has to be founded on ontology deductivist closed system theories as all the varieties of the walrasian general equilibrium kind could perhaps adequately represent an economy showing closed system characteristics but since the economy clearly has more in common with an open system ontology we ought to look out for other theories theories who are rigorous and precise in the meaning that they can be deployed for enabling us to detect important causal mechanisms capacities and tendencies pertaining to deep layers of the real world rigour coherence and consistency have to be defined relative to the entities for which they are supposed to apply too often they have been restricted to questions internal to the theory or model but clearly the nodal point has to concern external questions such as how our theories and models relate to real world structures and relations applicability rather than internal validity ought to be the arbiter of taste tear down walls of ignorance 31 may 2019 at 15 16 posted in politics society comments off on tear down walls of ignorance le débat autour de la mmt 31 may 2019 at 14 58 posted in economics 1 comment la mmt est elle une lubie d économistes de second ordre ou peut on au contraire en tirer une réflexion sérieuse ses partisans rétorquent que si l inflation réapparaît c est le signe que le plein emploi est atteint et que l on peut alors freiner la création monétaire ou encore que les taux d intérêt ne peuvent repartir à la hausse dans un contexte de création monétaire leur point de départ est en tout cas le constat de la faiblesse de l inflation même au plein emploi en raison essentiellement du fonctionnement nouveau des marchés du travail on observe par exemple aux etats unis que même au plein emploi les salariés ne quittent pas leur entreprise pour obtenir un salaire plus élevé ailleurs ce qui était traditionnellement la cause principale de l inflation le phénomène est attribué à la collusion implicite et dans certains cas explicite entre entreprises pour ne plus essayer d attirer les salariés des autres sociétés s il n y a plus d inflation pour des raisons structurelles alors la politique monétaire peut rester expansionniste comme le suggère la mmt pour financer un déficit public très important sans prendre le risque d un retour de l inflation et d une hausse des taux d intérêt c est d ailleurs le cas du japon qui est au plein emploi grâce à une politique budgétaire continûment expansionniste la dette publique y atteint 230 du pib le bilan de la banque du japon a atteint un an de pib mais où l inflation est quasi nulle et les taux d intérêt aussi bien à court terme qu à long terme nuls ceci n a pas conduit pour l instant à des sorties massives de capitaux ni à une forte dépréciation du taux de change du yen patrick artus le monde agnes heller über universalismus und republikanismus 31 may 2019 at 11 23 posted in politics society comments off on agnes heller über universalismus und republikanismus die aufklärung zu beerben dürfe nicht heißen nur die idee der universellen menschenrechte politisch umzusetzen die französische revolution habe doch ebenso die tradition der droits du citoyen der staatsbürgerrechte hervorgebracht und dies beides müsse heute politisch verwoben werden universalismus und republikanismus wer diesen widerspruch nicht überwinde lasse europa untergehen die solidarität aller menschen die nationalen interessen der bürger eines landes und die der unionsbürger lägen miteinander in einem explosiven wertekonflikt so steht es mit unseren europäischen werten heute die politische gegenwart in der wir leben ähnelt für sie der von 1914 weil der letzte krieg in vergessenheit geriet und die heutigen einen neuen krieg deshalb nicht genug fürchten um ihn zu verhindern oder auch nur zu sehen was sie riskieren denn sie wissen nicht was sie tun damals als die ursünde geschah wie heller es ausdrückt war europa das zentrum der welt deshalb habe der ethnonationalismus einen weltkrieg ausgelöst doch das werde sich nicht wiederholen wenn wir uns heute als europäer bekriegen und totschießen hält ágnes heller fest dann wird es niemanden auf der welt mehr kümmern oder gar zum eingreifen bewegen dazu sei europa zu klein und zu bedeutungslos hannibal ante portas wir haben die wahl natürlich können wir sagen na und es sind schon viele große kulturen untergegangen zum beispiel rom aber das ist nicht meine wahl ich entscheide mich für ein europa das mit der antinomie von universalismus und republikanismus umgehen kann die zeit krugman vs krugman 31 may 2019 at 10 30 posted in economics 3 comments paul krugman wonders why no one listens to academic economists one answer is that economists don t listen to themselves more precisely liberal economists like krugman who want the state to take a more active role in managing the economy continue to teach an economic theory that has no place for activist policy let me give a concrete example one of krugman s bugaboos is the persistence of claims that expansionary monetary policy must lead to higher inflation but where could someone have gotten this idea that an increase in the money supply must always lead to higher inflation perhaps from an undergraduate economics class very possibly if that class used krugman s textbook here s what krugman s international economics says about money and inflation a permanent increase in the money supply causes a proportional increase in the price level s long run value we should expect the data to show a clear cut positive association between money supplies and price levels if real world data did not provide strong evidence that money supplies and price levels move together in the long run the usefulness of the theory of money demand we have developed would be in severe doubt a permanent increase in the level of a country s money supply ultimately results in a proportional rise in its price level but has no effect on the long run values of the interest rate or real output this last sentence is simply the claim that money is neutral in the long run which krugman continues to affirm on his blog the more thoroughly a student understands the discussion in krugman s textbook the stronger should be their belief that sustained expansionary monetary policy must be inflationary because if it is not krugman gives you no tools whatsoever to think about policy liberal keynesian economists made a deal with the devil decades ago when they conceded the theoretical high ground paul krugman the textbook author says authoritatively that money is neutral in the long run and that a permanent increase in the money supply can only lead to inflation why shouldn t people listen to him and ignore paul krugman the blogger j w mason the slack wire share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky the nature of social reality 30 may 2019 at 18 47 posted in economics 1 comment en av de ledande metodologerna inom den ekonomiska vetenskapen i dag heter tony lawson denne engelske ekonom har i flera böcker på djupet undersökt och kritiserat de vetenskapsteoretiska och metodologiska fundamenten för den moderna nationalekonomin ekonomer uppvisar ofta ett svalt intresse inte bara för det egna ämnets idéhistoria utan också för vetenskapsteoretiska reflektioner 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