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k of policy because our trust in self regulation is too strong and because things really don t take care of themselves oh our economy does take care of itself when conditions are good that s when we get a golden age or seven good years but when we fail to promote the general welfare by proper management of economic conditions we get the seven bad years or the lost decades or insurrection or revolution or a dark age according to the josé ortega y gasset quote i posted the other day also from the geoff mann book civilization is not self sustaining it is artificial and demands an artist or artisan i m retelling that story today according to a j toynbee civilization faces challenges but continues to advance as long as each challenge is met with a successful response i m retelling that story today looking at civilization as one massive business cycle i can see that keynes was right to compare the great depression to the dark age and i understand that the peak of the cycle occurred some time around 1776 with our declaration of independence and adam smith s wealth of nations and gibbon s decline and fall of the roman empire first seeing daylight that year it is ironic that gibbon s book on the fall of rome was published at the peak of the next cycle but i do love irony the irony gets deep when we realize that smith s book is capitalism s handbook and that capitalism drives the decline and fall you can see this if you look geoff mann who knows what to look for says on page 10 i cannot help but see it everywhere i look i should say i never said capitalism drives the decline and fall until today i think i m adopting the wording from geoff mann and my hasn t my story changed since 14 march but don t forget my version of capitalism drives the decline and fall goes more like this the cycle of civilization is a cycle of dispersion and concentration of wealth we are in the stage of civilization where capitalism as cause of decline is easy to see concentration of wealth is easy to see mergers and acquisitions are everywhere amazon owns mgm for crying out loud during the rise of civilization wealth increases faster than it concentrates during the fall wealth increases more slowly than it concentrates as the end draws near fewer and fewer owners remain the rest of us if we are lucky get to be serfs the only acceptable alternative that i can see is to prevent decline fortunately the cycle of civilization is an economic cycle so policy can stop the decline and restore the rise if we commit to doing so and if we get the policy right and dally not at march 21 2022 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest sunday march 20 2022 use of the word financialization even if we combine the two spellings there is essentially no use of the word financialization until the 1980s at march 20 2022 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels financialization in the 19th century saturday march 19 2022 prescience google tells me the great depression start date was august 1929 when i ask when was black thursday it says september 1929 britannica puts black thursday on october 24 1929 august september october 1929 somewhere in there okay for context from britannica great depression worldwide economic downturn that began in 1929 and lasted until about 1939 although it originated in the united states the great depression caused drastic declines in output severe unemployment and acute deflation in almost every country of the world from an essay titled liberalism and labour given as a speech by john maynard keynes in 1926 as things are now we have nothing to look forward to except a continuance of conservative governments not merely until they have made mistakes in the tolerable degree which would have caused a swing of the pendulum in former days but until their mistakes have mounted up to the height of a disaster i do not like this choice of alternatives from an essay titled a programme of expansion written by john maynard keynes in april 1929 it is not an accident that the conservative government have landed us in the mess where we find ourselves it is the natural outcome of their philosophy you must not press on with telephones or electricity because this will raise the rate of interest you must not hasten with roads or housing because this will use up opportunities for employment which we may need in later years you must not try to employ every one because this will cause inflation you must not invest because how can you know that it will pay you must not do anything because this will only mean that you can t do something else safety first the policy of maintaining a million unemployed has now been pursued for eight years without disaster why risk a change we will not promise more than we can perform we therefore promise nothing this is what we are being fed with they are slogans of depression and decay the timidities and obstructions and stupidities of a sinking administrative vitality prescience no to call it prescience cheapens it keynes understood the economy as no one since has done at march 19 2022 1 comment email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest friday march 18 2022 seven ngrams ngrams word usage for example the graph titled the use of credit shows the usage of that phrase it does not show the use of credit and the graph titled beneficial credit shows all usage of that particular word combination not only when the source says credit is beneficial but also when they say it is not click image to jump to the ngram viewer credit is good peak circa 1918 the use of credit peak circa 1933 beneficial credit peak circa 1985 credit and economic growth peaks in 1959 and 2017 debt and economic growth peak in 2019 with end of data credit and debt and debt and credit good credit usage now half what is was in the early 1800s at march 18 2022 1 comment email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest thursday march 17 2022 found by accident drew my attention immediately in the long run we are all dead keynesianism political economy and revolution pdf 362 pages by geoff mann 2017 the heading on page 58 a general theory of civilization page 59 keynes became a keynesian not to save capitalism or liberalism per se but to save the thin and precarious crust of civilization itself he was to be sure a capitalist and he believed that something like capitalism although in a more or less radically different form would be a central pillar in the construction of more robust peaceful and secure social formation but to read his commitment to capitalism as his priority is to misunderstand his politics and that of many elites of his time he understood capitalism to be intimately interwoven with but not identical to civilization his work especially but not only the general theory is an attempt to do via economics what since the french revolution others had tried to do through other modes of analysis philosophical political even literary to understand the ways in which modernity puts civilization at risk and to uncover the means by which we might rescue civilization from modernity s self destructive tendencies i find just two occurrences of the word civilisation in keynes s general theory in chapter 10 at periods when gold is available at suitable depths experience shows that the real wealth of the world increases rapidly and when but little of it is so available our wealth suffers stagnation or decline thus gold mines are of the greatest value and importance to civilisation but do read the whole paragraph and in chapter 23 but here keynes is quoting someone else someone he disagrees with recommended reading the whole chapter keynes uses the word civilisation once in the book based on that one usage it is clear that keynes does see a strong link between civilization and the economy but it would be a mistake to say the general theory is a book about saving civilization it is about fixing the economy it might not be wrong to say the book was motivated by the desire to save civilization though i don t expect keynes said any such thing and it is certainly reasonable to look at all of keynes s work not only the gt to see how he ties civilization and the economy together this is what i think mann is doing but i need to see those quotes at march 17 2022 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest wednesday march 16 2022 a specifically evolutionary phenomenon in the long run we are all dead keynesianism political economy and revolution pdf 362 pages by geoff mann 2017 from note 15 for chapter 1 there is a great deal that separates freud from keynes and keynesianism but it is nonetheless true that on the question of civilization keynes thought along lines almost exactly the same as those laid out by freud in civilization and its discontents freud posits civilization kultur as a specifically evolutionary phenomenon keynes shared freud s contentions that the replacement of the power of the individual by the power of a community constitutes the decisive step in civilization that human life in common is only made possible when a majority comes together which is stronger than any separate individual and which remains united against all separate individuals freud clearly helped him keynes think and see things in a new light okay when mann says keynes thought along lines almost exactly the same as those laid out by freud and when he says keynes shared freud s contentions these are mann s observations not keynes s i don t know what keynes thinks until i see keynes saying it himself and sometimes not even then so my objection to mann s words here is the same as in mine of the 14th mann is presenting his own theory and calling it keynes s however mine of the 14th quotes a fragment from mann s preface and today s quote is part of a footnote neither quote is part of the main body of the book but even if they were those quotes are not evidence that mann doesn t show keynes expressing the same ideas himself they are not evidence that keynes does say those things but they are also not evidence that keynes doesn t say those things i get that but those quotes are evidence that mann is saying keynes says those things and this for me is a barrier to my acceptance of the thought that i want to accept which is that keynes did say those things mann plants the idea in my mind when he says keynes said it he makes me think keynes said it but he has shown me no evidence that keynes said it i am in danger of accepting without evidence the idea that keynes said some particular thing my only rational response is to distrust the source of this information mann my reaction of the 14th was to distrust the source a better reaction would have been to look for better evidence that s what i ve been doing since the 14th today i present a quote that i like a lot but i still don t see evidence that keynes thought those things today s quote from the footnote is important to me because of the ideas it contains i think civilization is a specifically evolutionary phenomenon though i would omit the word specifically because it complicates the idea i think it is true that replacement of the power of the individual by the power of a community constitutes the decisive step in civilization i also think athelstan s grately code is an example and was a big part of that replacement of power i think freud s contention regarding a majority versus separate individuals is fascinating but i neither accept nor reject it at this time and i still don t see keynes saying he shared freud s contentions mann gives me no reason to be convinced that keynes thought along similar lines i keep thinking about the boss at my old job whenever he wanted us to do something he s say steve wants you to do it steve was the boss s boss people would stop challenging the boss s orders and just do the work when the boss said steve wants it but that doesn t mean steve wanted what the boss said he wanted saying steve wants it was just a way to get people to go along geoff mann uses that technique when he tells us what keynes was thinking geoff mann wants the reader to go along with what geoff mann is saying so geoff mann says keynes said it the main body of the book awaits at march 16 2022 1 comment email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest tuesday march 15 2022 toynbee in one paragraph josé ortega y gasset quoted by geoff mann civilization is not simply here it is not self sustaining it is artificial and demands an artist or artisan if you want to enjoy the advantages of civilization but are not concerned with sustaining civilization well you are done in the blink of an eye you find yourself without civilization just a slip and when you look around everything has vanished into thin air at march 15 2022 1 comment email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest monday march 14 2022 geoff mann s theory of keynes s theory of civilization in the long run we are all dead keynesianism political economy and revolution pdf 362 pages by geoff mann 2017 a google search search for keynes civilization turns up more than two million results including this in the number one spot i am stopped dead by the words keynes s theory of civilization keynes s theory of civilization you d think i d have heard of it before now i think somebody made it up somebody put the words in keynes s mouth hey i could be wrong about this we will see google search turns up a handful of results for the phrase as keynes s theory of civilization makes clear one of the results is a blurb page for the geoff mann book in the long run we are all dead the blurb says in part keynesians are not and never have been out to save capitalism but rather to save civilization from itself but it is not keynes saying this and even if it actually is a keynesian idea that doesn t mean it has anything to do with keynes but wait could saving civilization from itself be an obscure reference to the four words civilization dies by suicide hmm nah to save civilization we have to save capitalism carroll quigley would say or we have to come up with a better instrument of expansion right quick but carroll quigley is not keynes and i ve tried to find keynes talking about civilization and its troubles and yeah i found a few statements but it s always like pulling teeth i always feel like i m putting words in keynes s mouth this is why i distrust geoff mann when he puts civilization there one of the search results is a google book of the geoff mann book it turns up this snippet a sentence and a half without context and with no hint of a source or reference to where keynes might have offered such a theory two of the results link to a d d chat page at forums somethingawful com a quote from the geoff mann book by ronya who says mann is trying his best to steelman contemporary liberalism i had to look up steelman and one result 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