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et old posts new ideas and analysis by dr cameron k murray home game of mates book news about consulting research teaching scrap superannuation housemate sunday may 15 2022 latest writings are now on substack all my writing is now being posted on my new substack page please subscribe there to get new posts to your email here s a preview of some of the latest articles labor s shared equity policy why aren t land titles free evidence lite zone lnp s super for housing policy the content of this site will ultimately be merged with the content on substack when i launch a better fresh economic thinking experience in 2023 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest sunday april 24 2022 a social housing fund is bad policy a social housing fund is a policy idea gaining traction the alp has proposed a 10 billion one in their election platform the grattan institute has proposed a 20 billion one the basic idea is to sell bonds to the market and use the cash from that sale to buy a range of higher yielding assets because there will be a differential return between the low cost of borrowing and the higher return on assets this creates a net return from the fund to pay for building new public housing it sounds so bland and innocuous that it is easy to miss how economically backwards the policy really is read the rest of this post at my new substack page and please subscribe there to get new posts to your email no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest sunday april 10 2022 housing stock per capita mostly measures demographics i don t like this chart not only is there an unjustified implication of direct causality x causes y and planning regulations cause x the pattern in the chart rests on choices about countries time periods measures of the housing stock and measures of the price of housing i want to focus here on how comparing countries with different demographic trends particularly ageing has implications for interpreting housing stock per person measures read the rest of this post at my new substack page and please subscribe there to get new posts to your email no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest wednesday march 16 2022 why politicians must pretend to want cheap housing uqppes statecraft autumn lecture march 2022 let me start with my thesis much of the contemporary debate about housing affordability is a distraction promoted by vested interests and reinforced by political incentives the proposed solutions are usually policies that favour property owners not renters and buyers the first way we know something is off is the language affordability is a beautifully vague word it s a word that works nicely as a covert signal that is a word that means something different to your target audience compared to others aspiring homeowners can be led to believe that the word implies cheaper prices to buy homes maybe also cheaper rents they feel their concerns are acknowledged it appears like something is being done for them for homelessness and public housing advocates the word affordability can imply a boost to public housing investment to provide non market housing options to the neediest the word makes it appear that something is being done for them too but the beauty of a covert signal is that the true meaning is known only to the target audience in this case large property owners and developers they know that affordability means that absolutely nothing will be done that puts the value of their property assets at risk to them the word is an invitation to participate in the next great property scam they know that to appear to be doing something about affordability their political mates will simply ask them what policies they want whatever tax break rezoning or subsidy they come up with will then become the nation s new affordable housing policy it is no leap to say that these outcomes are in fact the real objective of pretending to care about cheap housing by distracting us with the word affordability in his 1946 essay on politics and the english language george orwell wrote when there is a gap between one s real and one s declared aims one turns as it were instinctively to long words and exhausted idioms like a cuttlefish spurting out ink affordability is a long word that hides the real aim of boosting the asset portfolios of major property owners behind the declared aim of making housing cheaper for residents so why must politicians play this orwellian game of pretend at all there are three political economy issues at play read the rest of this post at my new substack page and please subscribe there to get new posts to your email no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest sunday march 13 2022 falinski s housing inquiry report will be peppered with lobbyist catch phrases and many journalists will lap it up uncritically like the dozens of previous housing inquiries before it falinski s inquiry into housing supply will find that giving valuable rezoning development rights to well connected property owners and developers is the housing policy we need the puzzling part is that the housing developers interviewed under oath during the inquiry said that they wouldn t flood the market to decrease prices even if they could falinksi is it not your view that if we increase the amount of supply prices will go down mr helmers i don t think that s the case mr long my view is consistent with richard s rezonings won t necessarily lead to lower housing prices falinksi d o you think if state local governments rezoned more land to allow greater supply that you could see dwelling prices drop by 20 per cent mr warner no straight out i concur with some of the comments before it s not going to create that much of a difference for perspective australian capital city housing prices increased 21 7 in the year to september 2021 no housing developer thought it plausible that mass upzoning could get close to reversing one year s price growth instead they all latched on to the phrase that mass rezoning will will moderate price growth i have no idea what this means if price growth is zero in the counterfactual will it mean prices start falling if it moderates price growth why can t rezoning moderate price growth down to a negative read the rest of this post at my new substack page and please subscribe there to get new posts to your email no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest sunday march 6 2022 my covid story part 2 read my covid story part 1 here january 2021 sticking with the crowd i was approached to write a short piece for the mint magazine i sent a rough draft of the type of article i would write when it dawned on them that i was going to challenge the covid mantra they decided that they must stick with the crowd and not publish anything i later put t hat draft piece on my blog the predictions in it have been quite accurate take a look back then zero covid was still a thing that people thought was possible despite all evidence the vaccines were going to be the way to achieve that dream june 2021 vaccinate the kids becomes a thing people want to do i was invited on abc s q a television program to be a panelist sharing opinions about covid policy you might be wondering how someone gets invited my experience was that stan grant and the producers wanted to be able to say that our reaction to covid was overblown but didn t want to have to say it themselves and cop the flak here s a write up about that appearance from abc news read the rest of this post at my new substack page and please subscribe there to get new posts to your email no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest monday february 28 2022 if planning constrains housing supply how does it do it i ve long puzzled over the exact mechanism by which planning regulations are supposed to constrain the rate of new housing supply sure they constrain the locations at which different types and densities of uses can occur that s their purpose but density dwellings per land area and the rate of supply new dwellings per period across all sites in a region are very different it seems logical to me that landowners maximise their economic returns from two choosing a density of development that maximises the residual i e their revenue minus the cost of development and a rate of sales and hence development per period of time it is not at all clear that if more dwellings can be built on one site that this changes the optimal rate of sales per period for that site it is also the case that only landowners can choose to make planning applications and that a huge majority of approvals are for projects that exceed coded density limits we have a property market after all what i am puzzled about is that when someone claims that planning reduces housing supply what sort of counterfactual pattern of supply do they have in mind read the rest of this post at my new substack page and please subscribe there to get new posts to your email no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest monday february 21 2022 my covid story part 1 march 2020 people lose their minds my first ever public comment about covid was this i was both prescient and wrong everyone has lost their shit about coronavirus as if lives lost this way are worth orders of magnitude more than lives lost any other way in two to three weeks time the reality will set in that there are real costs of locking down society that can be measured both in value of resources wasted and in blood all perspective has been lost at present if only i d written years instead of weeks then it would have been spot on as someone who has thought about health policy well being and trade offs for many years my first reaction to the media coverage of covid and the mystery china virus was to ask the following question what is the normal number of deaths in a city the size of wuhan without this context all the media coverage made no sense a city with 12 million people can expect about 96 000 deaths a year that s 264 a day so when i read headlines like death toll rises to 600 and that smoke from crematoriums working overtime was filling the city i had a reasonable baseline from which to sniff out nonsense the numbers mattered then and they still matter now if you search online for news articles of covid or coronavirus deaths from february 2020 you will see just how small the death numbers are and how crazed and fearful the reporting was some of the reporting just had made up figures with orders of magnitude differences from one article to the next no one really cared even at this early stage the lack of deadliness of the virus was becoming clear for those who wanted to find out the case fatality rate was likely to be sub 0 7 even with relatively limited testing i e 0 7 of known cases not all cases clearly this implied that early estimates were hugely biased because infections were far more widespread than initially assumed the diamond princess cruise ship had 3 711 people on board and had 14 deaths on this cruise 0 37 of people died over a two month period is that good or bad we know that background mortality is about 0 8 so every two months you can expect 0 13 of people to die but this is across the whole age distribution even a small skew towards the elderly massively increases this number for example in your 80s you have a one in twenty chance of dying each year on average in your 90s a one in five chance the age distribution of the diamond princess was super high so 0 37 of people dying within two months is totally within the normal range we knew this in march 2020 image source https wattsupwiththat com 2020 03 16 diamond princess mysteries we already knew then from the italian outbreak that the average age of covid deaths was higher than deaths from all other causes combined taking all this information together was pretty encouraging this is why herd immunity was thought to be simply a matter of months away flatten the curve for two weeks then a month or two later the whole thing would be over no one expected to be having masks border closures vaccine mandates and passports for two years with markets crashing i took the opportunity to put forward some ideas about macro stabilisation policy such as having a public agency take equity stakes in companies that wanted bail out money and buying up housing developments in distress to smooth construction cycles and add to public housing stocks of course none were taken up but looking back they were much more sensible than what we got with a jobkeeper giveaway a cashflow boost that cost hundreds of millions and resulted in a net upwards redistribution of wealth read the rest of this post at my new substack page and please subscribe there to get new posts to your email no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest wednesday february 2 2022 new metrics to show the value of delaying housing supply this article is based on a submission to the housing supply inquiry that i contributed to for prosper australia this neglected economic puzzle has become a heated policy debate rapidly rising dwelling prices globally have grabbed the attention of policy makers many have subsequently targeted planning and zoning as areas for housing reform australia new zealand the united kingdom and various states in the united states are conducting new reviews into planning housing supply and prices unfortunately most analysis of housing supply conflates density dwellings per unit of land and the rate of new housing supply new dwellings per period of time across all sites this is because the time dimension of the investment decision facing a landowner is typically ignored in the economic analysis of housing supply but the optimal inter temporal choice of landowners is hugely important for understanding the rate of new housing investment in property markets just as there is an optimal density of development that maximises the value of the site there is also an optimal rate of sales of new dwellings per period that maximises the value of the site across all candidate development sites in a region the rate of new housing development new dwellings per period of time is known as the market absorption rate or build out rate regardless of planning or zoning this rate is the result of many landowners making individually optimal choices about when and how fast to develop the economic logic behind the market absorption rate is described in murray 2021 some key elements of it are important to clarify owners of the property where a new home can be built already possess an asset on their balance sheet worth exactly the market value of the land developing that land with a new dwelling is a balance sheet reallocation if developed for immediate sale the property owner is swapping an undeveloped site ass...
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