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ricanes gov where the national hurricane center will now be providing an interactive rip current risk viewer you can also find beach specific forecasts by visiting https www weather gov beach on this site you can click on the beach you re visiting to get the latest surf rip current and local weather forecasts additionally you can also find information by visiting your local nws office s website a coastal hazards message may be in effect if hazardous beach conditions are expected or ongoing look for headlines such as beach hazard statement rip current statement or high surf advisory warning in effect most of the time an increase in surf will result in an increase in rip current activity share this print opens in new window print email a link to a friend opens in new window email tweet like loading this entry was posted in marine nhc outreach and tagged beach hurricane lifeguard ocean rip current surf surf zone swell travel waves nhc cone heads in a new direction posted on august 12 2024 robbie berg warning coordination meteorologist daniel brown branch chief hurricane specialist unit larry kelly hurricane specialist you may have seen our announcement back in february that we at the national hurricane center would start producing an experimental version of the cone of uncertainty in mid august that depicts coastal and inland tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings for the continental united states well that time has come and even though we don t currently have a tropical cyclone threatening the continental united states we want to refresh everyone on some of the things you ll notice about the new cone and some of the things that you should be aware of when using it particularly since this will be the biggest change made to the nhc cone graphic since 2017 but first a comment about the new cone being experimental in national weather service nws vocabulary experimental means that a potential new product or service is being tested by the nws and partners and users are encouraged to provide feedback during a comment period this also means that the product may at times be a little rough around the edges may not be available on a consistent basis and probably should not be used yet for critical support decisions after the comment period is over we go through your feedback to determine 1 should the product go operational 2 if it does go operational are there things in the product we need to modify or 3 do we need to create an updated version of the product and open up another comment period think of it like a pharmaceutical company testing a new drug it sometimes takes multiple rounds of testing before the drug is approved by the u s food and drug administration for human consumption if you want the nitty gritty on the public comment period refer to the nws public information statement or description page on the nhc website comments can be provided in the nws survey on the nhc experimental tropical cyclone forecast cone graphic one important note to keep in mind the current operational version of the cone will still be available and will not change during the experimental period what will be different about the experimental version of the cone of uncertainty vs the current operational version comparison of the current operational version of the nhc cone of uncertainty left and the experimental version that will be used in 2024 right for advisory 20 from hurricane ian in 2022 the current operational version of the cone graphic only shows tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings in a line along portions of the coast that may be affected the experimental version will add a depiction of these watches and warnings for inland areas in the continental united states in addition to those in effect along the coast watches and warnings in effect for land areas will take visual precedence over the cone in the experimental version this is because tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings actually convey the risk of strong winds from a tropical cyclone and should be the primary information used by decision makers to assess their wind risk before a storm the cone itself does not convey the risk of strong winds and only looking at that component of the graphic can be misleading the current cone graphic shows white transparent shading to depict the forecast track uncertainty for the first 3 days of the forecast and then white stippling for the 4 and 5 day portion of the forecast since there isn t really anything special between the early and latter parts of the forecast the experimental version will instead use white transparent shading with a solid white outline for the entire forecast cone what kinds of things should i beware of with the experimental version of the cone of uncertainty international tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings will continue to only be depicted along the coast the primary reason for this is that there currently is no framework for other countries to convey to nhc the inland extent of the watches and warnings that they issue this means there will be discrepancies between how far inland watches and warnings will extend in the u s vs other countries such as mexico for some storms an example of what this would look like can be seen below in an experimental version of the cone graphic for 2024 s tropical storm alberto example of the experimental version of the nhc cone of uncertainty for 2024 s tropical storm alberto showing a difference in the inland extent of tropical storm warnings within the united states south texas and northeastern mexico it is possible that at times there will be a forecast hurricane point that lies outside or on the edge of a hurricane watch or warning or a forecast tropical storm point that lies outside or on the edge of a tropical storm watch or warning an example of this can be seen for this year s hurricane beryl below one of the most frequent reasons why this can occur is that nhc s hurricane specialists may forecast a storm to be a tropical storm or hurricane while its center is inland but tropical storm or hurricane force winds are expected to be far removed from the center often near or offshore of the coast it s also important to remember that watches and warnings are based on the risk of an area experiencing tropical storm or hurricane conditions even if a storm is forecast to be a tropical storm or hurricane it sometimes happens that the chances of tropical storm or hurricane force conditions occurring at a specific location may not be deemed high enough to warrant the issuance of a watch or warning example of the experimental version of the nhc cone of uncertainty for 2024 s hurricane beryl showing tropical storm forecast point that lies on the edge of the tropical storm warning area in texas there are some instances where a tropical cyclone is forecast to transition to a post tropical cyclone and the risk of sustained winds of 39 mph or greater is communicated via non tropical wind watches and warnings in these cases these non tropical wind watches or warnings coastal and inland will not be plotted on the experimental cone graphic this is actually no different than the current operational version of the cone of uncertainty which does not depict non tropical wind watches and warnings along the coast an example can be seen below for hurricane ida in 2021 ida was forecast to become a post tropical cyclone depicted by the white dots over the tennessee valley and then re strengthen and begin producing gale force winds as it moved offshore the mid atlantic u s post tropical cyclone ida did produce some sustained gale force winds along the mid atlantic and northeast coasts but any non tropical watches or warnings communicating that possibility on the coast or inland would not have been depicted on the graphic example of the experimental version of the nhc cone of uncertainty for 2021 s hurricane ida showing that non tropical wind watches or warnings would not have been depicted along the coast of the northeast u s lastly a word about continuity we try to refrain from making frequent changes to the watches or warnings in effect for a specific area and that includes not discontinuing watches and warnings soon after they were issued or changing between tropical and non tropical watches and warnings in the middle of an event this can mean that even when there are shifts or changes to the forecast watches and warnings for an area may remain in effect for a while longer until we re absolutely certain the risk of strong winds has diminished why do we do this imagine if each time you go to your doctor you re given a different diagnosis for a health problem or prescribed a different medication to treat it you might start to lose trust in your doctor or at the very least not know what to believe a consistent message from your doctor with a gradual evolution of your treatment over time is likely to instill more faith in his or her expertise our philosophy is the same we tend to make incremental and gradual changes to our forecasts and the watches and warnings in effect which in the long run makes them more trustworthy where can i find the experimental cone the experimental cone of uncertainty will be created for every advisory regardless of whether or not there are inland wind watches or warnings in effect for the continental united states when you are looking at the legacy cone on the nhc website you can find the experimental cone by clicking the red link that says click here for the new experimental cone snapshot of the national hurricane center website where you can find the experimental cone of uncertainty graphic we want your feedback your feedback during the experimental phase of the new nhc cone of uncertainty graphic is critical in helping us decide if the product should go operational in a future year and what changes we might have to make before the product goes operational to make your voice heard please remember to fill out the nws survey share this print opens in new window print email a link to a friend opens in new window email tweet like loading this entry was posted in forecasting nhc warnings and tagged cone of concern cone of uncertainty forecast cone hurricane hurricane forecast national hurricane center tropical storm warnings why tropical cyclone size matters a comparison of hurricanes charley 2004 ian 2022 posted on may 28 2024 peyton collado former student intern and john cangialosi senior hurricane specialist a tale of two storms in 2004 and 2022 southwest florida was hit by devastating category 4 hurricanes the eyes of charley and ian made landfall within a few miles of one another with sustained winds up to 150 mph in both hurricanes these hurricanes led to catastrophic damage but to what extent with such similarities between hurricanes charley and ian why was the overall footprint of the impacts and hazards so different infrared satellite images of hurricane ian left and charley right just prior to their florida landfalls images courtesy of the cimss satellite blog at the university of wisconsin tracks of hurricane charley 2004 and ian 2022 naturally as ian threatened the florida coast in late september 2022 it was hard at the time to not look back and compare the potential impacts to charley this made sense at first glance since they were both category 4 hurricanes affecting the same part of florida however the potential risks can be deceptive if we only look at those two factors even though the track and intensity of the hurricanes were incredibly similar the estimated damage cost normalized to 2024 was about 4 5x higher in ian and the death toll was more than 10x higher as the winds storm surge and rainfall from ian stretched across a much larger portion of florida let s take a closer look at what led to such differences in the distribution of the impacts a word on wind radii the national hurricane center issues forecasts of the track intensity and size wind radii of tropical storms and hurricanes most individuals are more familiar with the track and intensity forecasts seen on many cone graphics but what about wind radii wind radii is a feature on many hurricane hazard graphics that corresponds to how far tropical storm force and hurricane force winds extend away from the storm s center 34 kt winds 39 mph scattered debris light projectiles fallen power lines that could lead to power outages possible damage to roof shingles siding 50 kt winds 58 mph damage to roof shingles siding gutters downed trees power lines unfastened homes of light weight could become airborne widespread power outages 64 kt winds 74 mph possible wall roof failure may blowout windows chart illustrating wind hazards national weather service the chart above briefly touches on wind related damage associated with tropical storm force and category 1 hurricane force winds given the potential impacts from wind alone when a hurricane poses a threat it is vital to understand the extent of such winds as impacts can be seen hundreds of miles away from the center track furthermore the extent of winds strongly correlates to other hurricane hazards like storm surge while charley and ian had their similarities their size difference played a major role in vast differences in wind and storm surge damage and resulting loss of life so how much did their wind radii differ in the following figure we can start to see why ian and charley were different it can be seen that tropical storm force winds yellow from ian are much larger than those of charley although both systems had similar peak winds at landfall the hurricane force winds red in ian extended out more than 20 nautical miles from charley s which impacted more than double the coastal area than charley maximum wind extents of hurricane ian left and hurricane charley right winds in knots the larger area of strong winds in ian is a major factor in why the storm surge was much worse in that hurricane the strong onshore winds on ian s east side pushed ocean water inland over a much larger region of southwest florida which was responsible for the majority of the damage and fatalities there not only was the storm surge higher but it swarmed many more miles of florida coastlines taking the lives of more than 40 individuals from this hazard alone during ian conversely the smaller charley produced significantly lower storm surge a way to think about storm surge and how it relates to storm size is to imagine yourself in a pool consider how much water you can push around if you move your finger at the top of the water in the pool on the other hand how much more water could you move around if you use your entire arm hopefully this analogy gives you some perspective on how wind radii storm size is correlated to the amount of storm surge a comparison of the peak storm surge maximum rainfall amount and forward speed between charley 2004 and ian 2022 another costly hazard from ian was flooding from rainfall although the storm size is not...
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