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description= 15 posts published by Lars Syll during May 2019;
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e constat de la faiblesse de l inflation même au plein emploi en raison essentiellement du fonctionnement nouveau des marchés du travail on observe par exemple aux etats unis que même au plein emploi les salariés ne quittent pas leur entreprise pour obtenir un salaire plus élevé ailleurs ce qui était traditionnellement la cause principale de l inflation le phénomène est attribué à la collusion implicite et dans certains cas explicite entre entreprises pour ne plus essayer d attirer les salariés des autres sociétés s il n y a plus d inflation pour des raisons structurelles alors la politique monétaire peut rester expansionniste comme le suggère la mmt pour financer un déficit public très important sans prendre le risque d un retour de l inflation et d une hausse des taux d intérêt c est d ailleurs le cas du japon qui est au plein emploi grâce à une politique budgétaire continûment expansionniste la dette publique y atteint 230 du pib le bilan de la banque du japon a atteint un an de pib mais où l inflation est quasi nulle et les taux d intérêt aussi bien à court terme qu à long terme nuls ceci n a pas conduit pour l instant à des sorties massives de capitaux ni à une forte dépréciation du taux de change du yen patrick artus le monde agnes heller über universalismus und republikanismus 31 may 2019 at 11 23 posted in politics society comments off on agnes heller über universalismus und republikanismus die aufklärung zu beerben dürfe nicht heißen nur die idee der universellen menschenrechte politisch umzusetzen die französische revolution habe doch ebenso die tradition der droits du citoyen der staatsbürgerrechte hervorgebracht und dies beides müsse heute politisch verwoben werden universalismus und republikanismus wer diesen widerspruch nicht überwinde lasse europa untergehen die solidarität aller menschen die nationalen interessen der bürger eines landes und die der unionsbürger lägen miteinander in einem explosiven wertekonflikt so steht es mit unseren europäischen werten heute die politische gegenwart in der wir leben ähnelt für sie der von 1914 weil der letzte krieg in vergessenheit geriet und die heutigen einen neuen krieg deshalb nicht genug fürchten um ihn zu verhindern oder auch nur zu sehen was sie riskieren denn sie wissen nicht was sie tun damals als die ursünde geschah wie heller es ausdrückt war europa das zentrum der welt deshalb habe der ethnonationalismus einen weltkrieg ausgelöst doch das werde sich nicht wiederholen wenn wir uns heute als europäer bekriegen und totschießen hält ágnes heller fest dann wird es niemanden auf der welt mehr kümmern oder gar zum eingreifen bewegen dazu sei europa zu klein und zu bedeutungslos hannibal ante portas wir haben die wahl natürlich können wir sagen na und es sind schon viele große kulturen untergegangen zum beispiel rom aber das ist nicht meine wahl ich entscheide mich für ein europa das mit der antinomie von universalismus und republikanismus umgehen kann die zeit krugman vs krugman 31 may 2019 at 10 30 posted in economics 3 comments paul krugman wonders why no one listens to academic economists one answer is that economists don t listen to themselves more precisely liberal economists like krugman who want the state to take a more active role in managing the economy continue to teach an economic theory that has no place for activist policy let me give a concrete example one of krugman s bugaboos is the persistence of claims that expansionary monetary policy must lead to higher inflation but where could someone have gotten this idea that an increase in the money supply must always lead to higher inflation perhaps from an undergraduate economics class very possibly if that class used krugman s textbook here s what krugman s international economics says about money and inflation a permanent increase in the money supply causes a proportional increase in the price level s long run value we should expect the data to show a clear cut positive association between money supplies and price levels if real world data did not provide strong evidence that money supplies and price levels move together in the long run the usefulness of the theory of money demand we have developed would be in severe doubt a permanent increase in the level of a country s money supply ultimately results in a proportional rise in its price level but has no effect on the long run values of the interest rate or real output this last sentence is simply the claim that money is neutral in the long run which krugman continues to affirm on his blog the more thoroughly a student understands the discussion in krugman s textbook the stronger should be their belief that sustained expansionary monetary policy must be inflationary because if it is not krugman gives you no tools whatsoever to think about policy liberal keynesian economists made a deal with the devil decades ago when they conceded the theoretical high ground paul krugman the textbook author says authoritatively that money is neutral in the long run and that a permanent increase in the money supply can only lead to inflation why shouldn t people listen to him and ignore paul krugman the blogger j w mason the slack wire share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky the nature of social reality 30 may 2019 at 18 47 posted in economics 1 comment en av de ledande metodologerna inom den ekonomiska vetenskapen i dag heter tony lawson denne engelske ekonom har i flera böcker på djupet undersökt och kritiserat de vetenskapsteoretiska och metodologiska fundamenten för den moderna nationalekonomin ekonomer uppvisar ofta ett svalt intresse inte bara för det egna ämnets idéhistoria utan också för vetenskapsteoretiska reflektioner kring förutsättningarna för och antagandena bakom den egna kunskapsproduktionen de nöjer sig oftast med att konstatera något i stil med att nationalekonomi är vad nationalekonomerna gör och att nationalekonomer är de som sysslar med nationalekonomi något djupare filosoferande anses inte vara nödvändigt detta är en föga upplysande inställning som inte är hållbar vetenskapsteoretiska filosofiska och metodologiska analyser av den ekonomiska vetenskapen är både viktiga och nödvändiga metodologisk kunskap fungerar som en vägkarta när vi upptäcker att vi inte befinner oss på vägen måste vi då och då kasta en blick på den karta eller modell av vetenskapligt framåtskridande som vi alla bär med oss medvetet eller omedvetet oavsett intresse för metodologi bygger ekonomiska teorier alltid medvetet eller omedvetet på metodologiska teorier och ställningstaganden frågan är därför inte om man som ekonom bör syssla med metodologi eller ej utan snarare hur det bäst ska ske metodologisk analys är både önskvärd och oundviklig i den ekonomiska vetenskapen som lawson ofta påpekat kan den inte minst fylla en kritisk funktion genom att göra ekonomen medveten om att den ekonomiska teorins grundläggande brister kan bero på att de begrepp teorier och modeller som man använder är oförenliga med själva undersökningsobjektet de verktyg som man lånat in från framför allt fysiken och matematiken konstruerades med tanke på helt andra uppgifter och problem och kan ha bidragit till en icke korrespondens mellan den ekonomiska vetenskapens struktur och den ekonomiska verklighetens struktur detta kan i sin tur ha lett ekonomerna till tvivelaktiga förenklingar och generaliseringar share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky postmodern mumbo jumbo 30 may 2019 at 13 18 posted in theory of science methodology 2 comments fyra viktiga drag är gemensamma för de olika rörelserna centrala idéer förklaras inte grunderna för en övertygelse anges inte framställningen av läran har en språklig stereotypi när det gäller åberopandet av lärofäder råder samma stereotypi ett begränsat antal namn återkommer heidegger foucault och derrida kommer tillbaka åter och åter till de fyra punkterna vill jag emellertid lägga till en femte 5 vederbörande har inte något väsentligen nytt att framföra överdrivet elakt tja smaken är olika men smaka på den här soppan och försök sen säga att det inte ligger något i den gamle lundaprofessorns karakteristik the move from a structuralist account in which capital is understood to structure social relations in relatively homologous ways to a view of hegemony in which power relations are subject to repetition convergence and rearticulation brought the question of temporality into the thinking of structure and marked a shift from a form of althusserian theory that takes structural totalities as theoretical objects to one in which the insights into the contingent possibility of structure inaugurate a renewed conception of hegemony as bound up with the contingent sites and strategies of the rearticulation of power judith butler wie der boom der privatschulen die spaltung der gesellschaft fördert 29 may 2019 at 21 04 posted in education school comments off on wie der boom der privatschulen die spaltung der gesellschaft fördert tweedledum and tweedledee economics 29 may 2019 at 17 10 posted in economics comments off on tweedledum and tweedledee economics krugman s entire essay is about two groups both deeply entrenched at what they believe to be the top of academic economics both are deeply preoccupied with their status and with a struggle for influence and for academic power and prestige against the other group krugman calls them saltwater and freshwater economists they tend to call themselves new classicals and the new keynesians the two groups share a common perspective a preference for thinking along similar lines krugman describes this well as a desire for an all encompassing intellectually elegant approach that also gave economists a chance to show off their mathematical prowess exactly so it was in part about elegance and in part about showing off it was not about the economy professor krugman contends that tweedledum and tweedledee mistook beauty for truth the beauty in question was the vision of capitalism as a perfect or nearly perfect system to be sure the accusation that a scientist let alone an entire science was seduced by beauty over truth is fairly damaging but it s worth asking what exactly was beautiful about this idea krugman doesn t quite say he does note that the mathematics used to describe the alleged perfection was impressive looking gussied up as he says with fancy equations it s a telling choice of words impressive looking gussied up these are not terms normally used to describe the venus de milo james k galbraith how to think about statistics 29 may 2019 at 09 32 posted in statistics econometrics 1 comment if anything gelman s talk underlines how important it is not to equate science with statistical calculation all science entail human judgement and using statistical models doesn t relieve us of that necessity working with misspecified models the scientific value of statistics is actually zero even though you re making valid statistical inferences statistical models are no substitutes for doing real science or as a famous german philosopher famously wrote 150 years ago there is no royal road to science and only those who do not dread the fatiguing climb of its steep paths have a chance of gaining its luminous summits we should never forget that the underlying parameters we use when performing statistical tests are model constructions and if the model is wrong the value of our calculations is nil as shoe leather researcher david freedman wrote in statistical models and causal inference i believe model validation to be a central issue of course many of my colleagues will be found to disagree for them fitting models to data computing standard errors and performing significance tests is informative even though the basic statistical assumptions linearity independence of errors etc cannot be validated this position seems indefensible nor are the consequences trivial perhaps it is time to reconsider all of this of course does also apply when we use statistics in economics most work in econometrics and regression analysis is still made on the assumption that the researcher has a theoretical model that is true based on this belief of having a correct specification for an econometric model or running a regression one proceeds as if the only problem remaining to solve have to do with measurement and observation when things sound too good to be true they usually aren t and that goes for econometrics too the snag is that there is pretty little to support the perfect specification assumption looking around in social science and economics we don t find a single regression or econometric model that lives up to the standards set by the true theoretical model and there is pretty little that gives us reason to believe things will be different in the future to think that we are being able to construct a model where all relevant variables are included and correctly specify the functional relationships that exist between them is not only a belief without support but a belief impossible to support the theories we work with when building our econometric regression models are insufficient no matter what we study there are always some variables missing and we don t know the correct way to functionally specify the relationships between the variables every regression model constructed is misspecified there is always an endless list of possible variables to include and endless possible ways to specify the relationships between them so every applied econometrician comes up with his own specification and parameter estimates the econometric holy grail of consistent and stable parameter values is nothing but a dream in order to draw inferences from data as described by econometric texts it is necessary to make whimsical assumptions the professional audience consequently and properly withholds belief until an inference is shown to be adequately insensitive to the choice of assumptions the haphazard way we individually and collectively study the fragility of inferences leaves most of us unconvinced that any inference is believable if we are to make effective use of our scarce data resource it is therefore important that we study fragility in a much more systematic way if it turns out that almost all inferences from economic data are fragile i suppose we shall have to revert to our old methods ed leamer a rigorous application of econometric methods in economics really presupposes that the phenomena of our real world economies are ruled by stable causal relations between variables parameter values estimated in specific spatio temporal contexts are presupposed to be exportable to totally different contexts to warrant this assumption one however has to convincingly establish that the targeted acting causes are stable and invariant so that they maintain their parametric status after the bridging the endemic 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