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y 1 8 ai society vol 31 no 2 2016 201 206 pdf thinking inside the box controlling and using oracle ai preliminary survey of various issues related to the idea of using boxing methods to safely contain a superintelligent oracle ai w stuart armstrong anders sandberg minds and machines vol 22 no 4 2012 299 324 pdf future progress in artificial intelligence a survey of expert opinion some polling data w vincent c müller fundamental issues of artificial intelligence ed vincent c müller springer 2016 555 572 pdf cognitive enhancement methods ethics regulatory challenges cognitive enhancement comes in many diverse forms in this paper we survey the current state of the art in cognitive enhancement methods and consider their prospects for the near term future we then review some of ethical issues arising from these technologies we conclude with a discussion of the challenges for public policy and regulation created by present and anticipated methods for cognitive enhancement w anders sandberg science and engineering ethics vol 15 no 3 2009 311 341 pdf are you living in a computer simulation this paper argues that at least one of the following propositions is true 1 the human species is very likely to go extinct before reaching the posthuman stage 2 any posthuman civilization is extremely unlikely to run significant number of simulations or variations of their evolutionary history 3 we are almost certainly living in a computer simulation it follows that the naïve transhumanist dogma that there is a significant chance that we will one day become posthumans who run ancestor simulations is false unless we are currently living in a simulation a number of other consequences of this result are also discussed the philosophical quarterly vol 53 no 211 2003 243 255 pdf html also with a reply to brian weatherson s comments the philosophical quarterly vol 55 no 218 2005 90 97 and a reply to anthony brueckner analysis vol 69 no 3 2009 458 461 and a new paper w marcin kulczycki analysis vol 71 no 1 2011 54 61 philosophy of mind quantity of experience brain duplication and degrees of consciousness if two brains are in identical states are there two numerically distinct phenomenal experiences or only one two i argue but what happens in intermediary cases this paper looks in detail at this question and suggests that there can be a fractional non integer number of qualitatively identical experiences this has implications for what it is to implement a computation and for chalmer s fading qualia thought experiment minds and machines vol 16 no 2 2006 185 200 pdf new book deep utopia life and meaning in a solved world new a greyhound catching the mechanical lure what would he actually do with it has he given this any thought gold medal winner living now book awards 2024 best books of 2024 kirkus reviews winner independent press awards 2025 honorable mention royal dragonfly book awards 2024 religion spirituality winner pencraft book awards 2024 fiction intrigue best ai books of 2024 the information winner american book fest nonfiction cross genre winner 2025 american legacy book award nonfiction cross genre ideapress 2024 more this is a wondrous book it is mind expanding it is poetic it is moving it is funny the writing is superb every page is full of ideas russ roberts president of shalem college fascinating the new york times yeah elon musk a major contribution to human thought and ways of thinking robert lawrence kuhn brilliant hilarious poignant insightful clever important prof thaddeus metz when technology has solved humanity s deepest problems what is left to do argues that beyond the post scarcity world lies a post instrumental one with the arrival of ai utopia this would be put to the test quite a lot would ride on the result the economist reminiscent of plato s dialogues with a 21st century twist stuff nz bostrom is a marvelously energetic prose stylist wry understated humor that s often very quiet in its punchlines a complex and stimulatingly provocative look at just how possible a fulfilling life might be kirkus reviews a really fun and important book the writing is brilliant incredibly rich a constant parade of fascinating ideas prof guy kahane oxford university wow prof erik brynjolfsson stanford university co author of the second machine age the previous book superintelligence paths dangers strategies we could have used the intervening years to prepare instead we mostly spent the time on the couch munching potato chips now there s some sense of alarm but unclear we can get ourselves into match shape in time oxford university press 2014 excellent the best thing i ve seen on this topic sam altman i highly recommend this book bill gates very deep every paragraph has like six ideas embedded within it nate silver terribly important groundbreaking extraordinary sagacity and clarity enabling him to combine his wide ranging knowledge over an impressively broad spectrum of disciplines engineering natural sciences medicine social sciences and philosophy into a comprehensible whole if this book gets the reception that it deserves it may turn out the most important alarm bell since rachel carson s silent spring from 1962 or ever olle haggstrom professor of mathematical statistics nick bostrom makes a persuasive case that the future impact of ai is perhaps the most important issue the human race has ever faced it marks the beginning of a new era stuart russell professor of computer science university of california berkeley those disposed to dismiss an ai takeover as science fiction may think again after reading this original and well argued book martin rees past president royal society worth reading we need to be super careful with ai potentially more dangerous than nukes elon musk there is no doubting the force of bostrom s arguments the problem is a research challenge worthy of the next generation s best mathematical talent human civilisation is at stake financial times this superb analysis by one of the world s clearest thinkers tackles one of humanity s greatest challenges if future superhuman artificial intelligence becomes the biggest event in human history then how can we ensure that it doesn t become the last professor max tegmark mit a damn hard read the telegraph anthropics probability anthropic bias observation selection effects in science and philosophy failure to consider observation selection effects result in a kind of bias that infest many branches of science and philosophy this book presented the first mathematical theory for how to correct for these biases it also discusses some implications for cosmology evolutionary biology game theory the foundations of quantum mechanics the doomsday argument the sleeping beauty problem the search for extraterrestrial life the question of whether god exists and traffic planning complete book available for free online also as paperback routledge 2002 self locating belief in big worlds cosmology s missing link to observation current cosmological theories say that the world is so big that all possible observations are in fact made but then how can such theories be tested what could count as negative evidence to answer that we need to consider observation selection effects the journal of philosophy vol 99 no 12 2002 607 623 html pdf the mysteries of self locating belief and anthropic reasoning summary of some of the difficulties that a theory of observation selection effects faces and sketch of a solution the harvard review of philosophy vol 11 no 1 2003 59 73 pdf anthropic shadow observation selection effects and human extinction risks anthropic shadow is an observation selection effect that prevents observers from observing certain kinds of catastrophes in their recent geological and evolutionary past we risk underestimating the risk of catastrophe types that lie in this shadow w milan m cacute irkovi cacute anders sandberg risk analysis vol 30 no 10 2010 1495 1506 won best paper of the year award by the journal editors translation russian pdf observation selection effects measures and infinite spacetimes an advanced introduction to observation selection theory and its application to the cosmological fine tuning problem universe or multiverse ed bernard carr cambridge university press 2007 431 443 pdf the doomsday argument and the self indication assumption reply to olum argues against olum and the self indication assumption w milan m cacute irkovi cacute the philosophical quarterly vol 53 no 210 2003 83 91 pdf the doomsday argument is alive and kicking have korb and oliver refuted the doomsday argument no mind vol 108 no 431 1999 539 551 translation russian the doomsday argument adam eve un and quantum joe on the doomsday argument and related paradoxes synthese vol 127 no 3 2001 359 387 html pdf a primer on the doomsday argument the doomsday argument purports to prove from basic probability theory and a few seemingly innocuous empirical premises that the risk that our species will go extinct soon is much greater than previously thought my view is that the doomsday argument is inconclusive although not for any trivial reason in my book i argued that a theory of observation selection effects is needed to explain where it goes wrong colloquia manilana vol 7 1999 translation russian audio sleeping beauty and self location a hybrid model the sleeping beauty problem is an important test stone for theories about self locating belief i argue against both the traditional views on this problem and propose a new synthetic approach synthese vol 157 no 1 2007 59 78 pdf beyond the doomsday argument reply to sowers and further remarks argues against george sower s refutation of the doomsday argument and outlines what i think is the real flaw c 2002 pdf cars in the other lane really do go faster when driving on the motorway have you ever wondered about and cursed the fact that cars in the other lane seem to be getting ahead faster than you one might be tempted to account for this by invoking murphy s law if anything can go wrong it will discovered by edward a murphy jr in 1949 but there is an alternative explanation based on observational selection effects plus no 17 2001 observer relative chances in anthropic reasoning a paradoxical thought experiment erkenntnis vol 52 no 1 2000 93 108 cosmological constant and the final anthropic hypothesis examines the implications of recent evidence for a cosmological constant for the prospects of indefinite information processing in the multiverse co authored with milan m cirkovic w milan m cacute irkovi cacute astrophysics and space science vol 274 no 4 2000 675 687 pdf bio nick bostrom who has been referred to as the swedish superbrain has a background in theoretical physics computational neuroscience logic and artificial intelligence along with philosophy he is one of the most cited philosophers in the world he was until recently professor at oxford university where he served as the founding director of the future of humanity institute from 2005 until its closure in 2024 he is the founder and principal researcher of the nonprofit macrostrategy research initiative bostrom is the author of 200 publications including anthropic bias 2002 global catastrophic risks 2008 human enhancement 2009 and superintelligence paths dangers strategies 2014 a prescient new york times bestseller which helped spark a global conversation about the future of ai that continues to this day his work has pioneered many of the ideas that frame current thinking about humanity s future e g the concept of existential risk the simulation argument the vulnerable world hypothesis differential technological development crucial considerations the moral status of digital minds etc his most recent book deep utopia life and meaning in a solved world was published in 2024 his writings have been translated into more than 30 languages he is a repeat main stage ted speaker he has been on foreign policy s top 100 global thinkers list twice and was included in prospect s world thinkers list the youngest person in the top 15 as a graduate student he dabbled in stand up comedy on the london circuit for more background see profiles in e g the new yorker or aeon my work my research efforts while they may appear scattershot generally share one aim which is to better understand what i call our macrostrategic situation by this i mean the larger context in which human civilization exists and in particular how our current choices relate to long term outcomes or ultimate values i think we are fairly profoundly in the dark on such matters you could say that we are like ants who may be very busy schlepping needles from one point to another but with little notion as to what they are doing why they are doing it or whether in the final reckoning it was good that they did it i ve been interested in these questions since my teenage years my interest is rooted in a practical concern without an adequate understanding of our macrostrategic situation we can strive to make a difference in the world but will that difference be positive or negative if we are missing at least one crucial consideration we might be squandering our energy on things that are of scant consequence or our well intentioned efforts might unwittingly be making things worse cont cont i had the privilege of creating and then leading the future of humanity institute at oxford university it started with just three researchers back in 2005 and grew to about fifty at its peak before its closure in 2024 the fhi had a unique intellectual culture and was a magnet for some of the most exceptionally brilliant and often eccentric minds in the world despite its small scale and relatively short lifespan the fhi produced an astonishing string of fundamental advances which amount to a new way of thinking about big picture questions for humanity i imagine that perhaps plato s academy in ancient athens or some artistic circle in the heyday of renaissance florence might have enjoyed a similar spirit of aliveness and intellectual fertility in addition to its research accomplishments the fhi community spawned a number of academic offshoots nonprofits and other initiatives that continue to thrive it helped incubate the ai safety research field the existential risk and rationalist communities and the effective altruism movement its alumni have gone on to hold prominent positions in other institutions fhi was eventually shut down in 2024 following several years of increasing bureaucratic strangulation from the local faculty administration today there is a much broader support base for the kind of work fhi was set up to enable so the institute essentially served its purpose but those of us fortunate enough to have been there during its early or peak years will cherish memories of this academic anomaly that was the fhi for a third party telling of the story of fhi see this book chapter as for my own research this webpage itself is perhaps the best summary aside from my work related to...
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