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anding american policy of encouraging freer trade free trade in other words is not good enough it has to be freer and we have to encourage that we can not abandon the policy or even tone it down a bit because that would interfere with our freer trade plans for the general agreement on tariffs and trade and the oecd the reason we cannot tone down those plans in other words is that we don t want to that was in 1961 but things haven t changed much since then we use policy to encourage certain things and those things generally come about if our economy grows worse as a result perhaps it is because the people who decide what to encourage do so based only on what is best for themselves or maybe they re just wrong i am reminded of a better plan proposed by hayek neither an omnipotent super state nor a loose association of free nations but a community of nations of free men must be our goal i am reminded also of the strategy that would let the hayek plan succeed if nations can learn to provide themselves with full employment by their domestic policy and we must add if they can also attain equilibrium in the trend of their population there need be no important economic forces calculated to set the interest of one country against that of its neighbours free trade as we know it today promotes the merging of nation states into economic communities like the european union such communities in principle are lovely but we are finding out the hard way that economic community is not enough to make the plan work political unification is also required so behind the scenes the culture is modified until people begin to think in terms of the super state to think in terms of europe rather than france to think of themselves as europeans rather than frenchmen people are being manipulated to facilitate the progress of the super state the super state is promoted as better for the economy that is a crock if you can t fix the economy of a nation state you damn sure will not be able to fix the economy of the super state if we cannot learn to provide ourselves with adequate employment by our domestic policy at the nation state level surely we will never achieve it at the super state level the whole concept of the super state in my uneducated opinion is the product of the mealy minds of the already super wealthy whose further accumulations are in some small degree hindered by national boundaries and the economic policies they contain the concept is supported by lesser wealth holders with unrealistic dreams of super size wealth and by those with neither wealth nor a better dream to turn to the omnipotent super state that hayek rejects i should add is the same as the universal state of arnold j toynbee and the universal empire of carroll quigley this super state appears late in the cycle of civilization shortly before the dark age which brings the cycle to completion is this dire prediction no it is only a way of looking at the world i suppose we could just wait to see if it turns out again to be true unless you have something better to do like calling for change in the policies that promote our continuing decline at december 02 2022 2 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels too much opinion and not enough econ wednesday november 30 2022 an eye opener from samuel milner samuel milner unwilling to wait decades for the political decline of new deal liberalism the core industries of post world war ii america repurposed collective bargaining as a means to reduce the costs of organized labor from the abstract of the problem of productivity inflation and collective bargaining after world war ii at researchgate at november 30 2022 1 comment email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest tuesday november 29 2022 explaining the growth of finance profit as percent of gva for financial and nonfinancial corporate business graph 1 at fred gva is like gdp by sector at november 29 2022 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest saturday november 26 2022 the kennedy years in the 1950s cost push inflation was sometimes attributed to low productivity in the wage push inflation thesis 1950 1957 lowell e gallaway 1958 wrote simply stated the wage push inflation thesis holds that money wage rates have increased more rapidly than physical productivity and consequently have exerted upward pressure on costs and prices in time magazine 15 july 1957 we read general motors set up the first automatic annual improvement factor increase in wage contracts in 1950 the upward trend of wages was due not only to the scarcity of labor but also to the spread throughout industry of the g m idea of automatic increases this ran counter to traditional business practice because it placed emphasis on a long term rise in productivity and kept wages rising even when productivity temporarily stopped rising as it did last year or business temporarily slackened as in steel and autos this year note that they knew already in 1957 that productivity stopped rising in 1956 note also that a decline in productivity will increase labor cost to business just as wage hikes do it would be an easy mistake to blame wages if the problem was low or falling productivity but you couldn t fix that problem by holding wages down not in the 1950s and not since the 1980s in the kennedy years productivity was sharply in focus in 1996 the l a times recalled that president kennedy used a tactic his economic advisor walter w heller called jawboning to urge business and labor to behave responsibly in kennedy s time that meant pay increases shouldn t exceed productivity gains and price hikes shouldn t exceed increases in wages and again in his january 11 1962 state of the union kennedy declared our first line of defense against inflation is the good sense and public spirit of business and labor keeping their total increase in wages and profits in line with productivity networker writes kennedy since the inaugural address and beyond had been asking americans and american business to exercise restraint to enable the united states to meet its obligations and strengthen its economy the steel workers of america agreed to hold off their demands for higher wages if the steel companies on their part would not raise the price of steel the workers kept their end of the bargain the companies did not ordering a price increase after a strike was averted this dishonest and irresponsible act angered kennedy as is made clear in the following speech then from kennedy s april 11 1962 speech there is no justification for an increase in steel prices the recent settlement between the industry and the union which does not even take place until july 1st was widely acknowledged to be noninflationary and the whole purpose and effect of this administration s role which both parties understood was to achieve an agreement which would make unnecessary any increase in prices in his very next sentences again productivity was central steel output per man is rising so fast that labor costs per ton of steel can actually be expected to decline in the next 12 months and in fact the acting commissioner of the bureau of labor statistics informed me this morning that and i quote employment costs per unit of steel output in 1961 were essentially the same as they were in 1958 it s a good speech kennedy was angry he called for a higher sense of business responsibility for the welfare of their country it s not like kennedy didn t know about productivity and cost he knew he was focused on it and he tried to keep prices from rising it didn t work the above is taken from mine of 21 april 2021 in that post my focus was the cost of interest and its impact on wage hikes debt was accumulating the cost of finance was rising surely by the time interest on household debt was taking more than 5 of employee compensation people considered it part of the cost of living surely rises in our paychecks had to cover the rises in our interest payments annual household interest costs were above 5 of employee compensation by 1960 and with household interest cost growing faster than gdp from 1946 to 1986 wage hikes that covered the cost of interest would surely have looked like inflationary increases looked inflationary and were inflationary wage earners were trying to cover their costs it was cost push inflation due to the rising cost of finance it looked like inflationary wage increases for a reason yes but finance didn t get the blame wages did i should add that as long as we continue to ignore the cost of finance we will never solve our economic troubles in the present post my focus is on the cost of finance for nonfinancial corporate business ncb our creators of output nonfinancial corporate business is ncb not nfc nfc is an nfl football thing the problem was not simply that the steel companies ignored kennedy s jawboning in 1962 the problem was rising cost specifically the rising cost of interest in the mid 1950s the interest paid annually by nonfinancial corporate business was less than two percent of the value of output they generated as measured by gross value added in 1962 it was almost three percent graph 1 interest cost as a percent of gva for nonfinancial corporate business interest cost is even higher when we compare it to profits annual interest paid as a percent of ncb profits before tax amounted to 9 5 in 1955 by 1962 the interest cost had more than doubled to 19 2 of before tax profits graph 2 ncb interest cost as a percent of ncb profits before tax ncb interest cost as a percent of after tax profits increased from 17 5 in 1955 to 34 3 in 1962 businesses keep track of their costs when u s steel increased prices in 1962 angering kennedy they knew their interest costs were rising even if wage hikes were held down to match productivity gains u s steel needed a price increase to cover their rising interest costs but the negotiations apparently were all about productivity and the cost of labor at november 26 2022 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels an alternative to the wage push inflation thesis thursday november 24 2022 the us economy in the early years after wwii the 1960 paper by paul samuelson and robert solow and the issue it addressed were the topic of james forder s 2010 paper economists on samuelson and solow on the phillips curve the question they were addressing was that of the explanation of the inflation of the 1950s particularly the period 1955 57 and the implications it had for macroeconomics mild though that was later to seem this creeping inflation as it was called was at the time a source of much anxiety this graph shows the years 1948 to 1978 the blue line shows inflation using the urban data that seems to serve as a nationwide measure the red line shows the interest rate that the federal reserve raised or lowered to control inflation graph 1 blue is inflation shown as percent change from year ago of the cpi red is the federal funds interest rate for which the federal reserve set targets after the end of the second world war it took a few years to get inflation stabilized but inflation blue did quiet down to below 1 by the end of 1952 the federal funds rate red doesn t appear on the graph until july 1954 but we can reasonably assume interest rates rose enough to reduce early 1950s inflation and create a recession in mid 1953 my proxy for fedfunds rises from the end of the 1949 recession to the start of the 1953 54 recession the red line shows the fedfunds rate following the same pattern after the 1953 54 recession persistent increase from the end of one recession to the beginning of the next rates only fall as the ensuing recession slows the economy and starts to bring inflation down the graph shows the federal funds interest rate rising almost immediately as the 1953 54 recession ends the graph shows that the interest rate kept going up even as prices fell for a whole year the blue line inflation went below zero in september 1954 and didn t surface again until september 1955 as lorraine lee rightly says counterinflationary policy is basically severe austerity the increase in the blue line between 1955 and the 1957 58 recession was the inflation that samuelson and solow were writing about in 1960 the creeping inflation and again almost immediately after the 1957 58 recession the fed started raising the interest rate the fedfunds rate hit bottom in july 1958 and started going up inflation continued falling until april 1959 and only rose after that this brings us to the 1960 recession the 1960 recession began in april 1960 and ended in february 1961 cq researcher provides wage policy in recovery a remarkable article by h b shaffer dated june 21 1961 the opening paragraph satisfaction over multiplying signs that the country is fast leaving the recession behind is currently clouded by fears that too vigorous a recovery will set in motion a new inflationary surge the risks in the situation have impelled the kennedy administration to make special efforts to prevail on labor and management to keep wage price levels steady as business activity expands shaffer s words emphasize the bipolar approach to inflation management that is visible in the historical data march april may june it took four months to go from things are great to oh no things are too good and shaffer s article was written even before june was out there was much anxiety about inflation as james forder said and this brings us to president kennedy at november 24 2022 2 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels an alternative to the wage push inflation thesis tuesday november 22 2022 jfk assassination 22 november 1963 fifty nine years i was in algebra class when they announced it some things you don t forget at november 22 2022 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest a detail my habit is to use the inflation measure fred calls cpiaucsl because i memorized the name of it and because it was fred s most popular inflation measure when i was looking for a name to memorize it still is their most popular inflation measure but that inflation measure gives the cpi for all urban consumers i figure most consumers are urban consumers i used the urban measure for a long time without worrying that it might be different from the national measure but now i have decided to take a look at it and that is our adventure today on the graph i show the first dataset as a wide bright blue line and the second one narrow and bright red so i can see how the one line matches the other but it is easier to see if the image is bigger to see a bigger version of the graph below click on the graph image to access the graph at fred click the word graph in the caption graph 1 by eye red and blue differ a little in 1954 1962 1967 and 1970 but the two lines are similar enough that i figure the urban measur...
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