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hs of that first increase inflation peaked and started to fall within three months the economy has been responding in a timely manner the federal reserve has not this is why the inflation was as bad as it turned out to be because the fed chose not to respond until inflation had been rising for a year the fed could have nipped inflation in the bud but failed to do so it failed to respond in a timely manner if that s not bad enough we now have a follow up problem interest rates are high and they remain high even though inflation is far down from the peak once again the economy has responded promptly and the fed has not the economy responded promptly with inflation falling to 3 by june of 2023 and settling down since that time to a trend that is comparable to a 3 3 inflation target as the graph up top shows but the federal reserve has not responded by reducing interest rates not even once in the year since june 2023 the fed is again dragging its feet interest rates must come down so that a recession can be avoided but the fed appears to be prepared to wait until the recession is upon us in full force and only then will it be ready to reduce interest rates jerome powell has said over and over again in the past year that the fed is waiting for inflation to come all the way down to where it fits the 2 target so far inflation has continued to behave as if the target is 3 3 but the fed continues to hold out for 2 so our economy continues to move toward recession at june 15 2024 1 comment email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels 3 inflation target throwback tuesday june 11 2024 throwback part 1 nixon for context hi art here i renamed this series of posts from throwback to the plan i m keeping the throwback link for this message and moving the content to a new link the new link is https econcrit blogspot com 2024 06 the plan part 1 html if you share the link please share the new one after a day or two i will keep the above message and delete the content below rule of thumb if a first term president s term ends with a good strong economy he gets a second term in how richard nixon pressured arthur burns evidence from the nixon tapes burton a abrams writes in nixon s 1962 book six crises he recounts that arthur burns called on him in march 1960 to warn him that the economy was likely to dip before the november election nixon writes that burns urged strongly that everything possible be done to avert this development he urgently recommended that two steps be taken immediately their idea was to improve the economy enough that vice president nixon would win the election and take his turn as president when eisenhower s second term was up today this would be called election interference no steps were taken abrams continues herbert stein who was a member of the council of economic advisers from the start of nixon s first term and became chairman at the start of 1972 confirms that nixon blamed a modest rise in the unemployment rate as one of the reasons he lost the 1960 election thus our rule of thumb again abrams evidence from the nixon tapes now available to researchers shows that president richard nixon pressured the chairman of the federal reserve arthur burns to engage in expansionary monetary policies in the run up to the 1972 election here the election interference appears to be driven by nixon in their 1960 encounter it seems to have been burns s idea at least that s how nixon remembered it for six crises in both cases 1960 and 1972 the plan was to improve the economy enough to keep the incumbent or his party in power there is something almost heartwarming about nixon s interference because in both cases the idea was to improve the economy both times however the interference was conceived as a way to assure the election or re election of nixon both times nixon was engaged in election interference intended to benefit nixon from nixonomics how the game plan went wrong by rowland evans jr and robert d novak in atlantic monthly july 1971 1 during that difficult decade after his defeat in 1960 aides and close friends had heard nixon say privately time after time that had president eisenhower only taken his and arthur burns s advice early in 1960 and moved rapidly toward stimulating the economy he not jack kennedy would have been elected president the implication not quite stated flatly was that richard nixon if he had the power would never again go into a presidential election with the economy in a state of deflation note 1 as reprinted in stabilizing america s economy the reference shelf vol 44 no 2 edited by george a nikolaieff evans and novak show nixon fully committed to election interference more dirt on nixon this from the federal reserve chairman section of wikipedia s article on arthur burns nixon later blamed his defeat in 1960 in part on fed policy and the resulting tight credit conditions and slow growth after finally winning the presidential election of 1968 nixon named burns to the fed chair in 1970 with instructions to ensure easy access to credit when nixon was running for reelection in 1972 later when burns resisted negative press about him was planted in newspapers and under the threat of legislation to dilute the fed s influence burns and other governors succumbed burns s relationship with nixon was often rocky reflecting in his diary about a 1971 meeting attended by himself nixon treasury secretary john connally the chairman of the council of economic advisors and the director of the bureau of the budget burns wrote the president looked wild talked like a desperate man fulminated with hatred against the press took some of us to task apparently meaning me or chairman of the council of economic advisors paul mccracken or both for not putting a gay and optimistic face on every piece of economic news however discouraging propounded the theory that confidence can be best generated by appearing confident and coloring if need be the news wikipedia also includes a detail which seems to have been omitted from all the president s men the great alan j pakula movie starring robert redford and dustin hoffman at the watergate break in of 1972 the burglars were found carrying 6300 of sequentially numbered 100 bills the fed lied to reporter bob woodward as to the source of the bills burns stonewalled congressional investigations about them and issued a directive to all fed offices prohibiting any discussion of the subject watergate was just one more example of nixon tampering with elections that time however it did not include improving the economy watch the movie watch all the president s men improving the economy as a form of election interference might seem by comparison a good idea but when winning the election intrudes on economic policy the economy will lose every time and the incidental considerations like lying to bob woodward stonewalling congress and prohibiting discussion are but a nixon sampler of the damage created by such manipulations by the way richard nixon and donald trump were pen pals in the emerging republican majority 1969 kevin p phillips identifies the two principal architects of the emerging republican majority richard nixon and john mitchell among that emerged group then nixon s sleazebag behavior is apparently seen as worthy of emulation from wikipedia s arthur f burns article burns served as fed chairman from february 1970 until the end of january 1978 he has a reputation of having been overly influenced by political pressure in his monetary policy decisions during his time as chairman 13 footnote 13 reads bartlett bruce 2004 04 28 more politics at the fed national review there is this link http www nationalreview com articles 210446 more politics fed bruce bartlett that link is broken this one works https www nationalreview com 2004 04 more politics fed ridhancock the link turns up more politics at the fed at national review attributed to ridhancock bruce bartlett is acknowledged in a note below the article i will refer to the article as the bartlett article the bartlett article says nixon wanted to keep monetary policy loose in order to make sure the economy was robust going into the election this led to the imposition of wage and price controls in august 1971 that paragraph concludes while everyone knew they would not work for long the controls reduced inflation enough to keep monetary policy expansive through november 1972 which was all that mattered now that sounds like nixon getting elected was be all and end all the bartlett article dated april 28 2004 opens with this paragraph rising inflation and interest rates although still low by historical standards are starting to get the attention of economists it is becoming harder and harder to find an economist who doesn t think the federal reserve needs to tighten monetary policy soon however fed officials continue to say that unemployment low capacity utilization and strong productivity growth argue against tightening at this time they may be right but one cannot help but suspect that politics is also playing a role once you see election interference in nixon it is easy to see elsewhere the article concludes with these thoughts the reason this nixon burns history is relevant today 2004 is because the fed is under increasing pressure to tighten monetary policy while there is no evidence of white house pressure to keep monetary policy easy one can assume that it will not be displeased if the fed avoids tightening before election day fed chairman alan greenspan is well respected and no one believes he would knowingly use monetary policy for political purposes however the longer he waits to tighten monetary policy the more people are going to ask whether politics is playing a role once you see it in nixon you see it everywhere bartlett or ridhancock was aware of nixon s willingness to use economic policy for political gain because of rising inflation and an unresponsive fed bartlett grew concerned about election interference in the era of george w bush and alan greenspan not that there was evidence of interference but inflation was rising and interest rates were not bartlett saw the possibility of election interference and he couldn t look away i can respect that if you go looking you can find tales of nixon and burns in many places the other day i came upon three that i had not seen before they broaden the picture substantially here is a quick look at ap news 12 may 2022 the chronically high inflation of the 1970s has been attributed in part to political pressure that led the fed to forgo steep rate hikes under presidents lyndon johnson and richard nixon at ap news 31 may 2022 in the early 1970s president richard nixon pressured fed chair arthur burns to lower interest rates to spur the economy before nixon s 1972 reelection campaign nixon s interference is now widely seen as a key contributor to runaway inflation which remained high until the early 1980s at business insider 11 march 2024 richard nixon pressured the fed to keep interest rates low before his reelection which helped cement the disastrous inflation of the 1970s ronald reagan got the message to the central bank on his wants during his presidency getting his chief of staff to tell then fed chair paul volcker not to raise rates ahead of his reelection campaign volcker wasn t planning to raise rates anyway in recent decades however most presidents shied away from saying much until trump good article that last this all leaves me wondering about donald trump fed chairman jerome powell and the biden inflation i have no evidence that trump and powell talk the way nixon and burns talked i have no evidence that powell s march 2021 announcement inflation is coming was a coded message to administered price setters to start raising prices i have no evidence that the fed s year long delay before raising interest rates march 2021 to march 2022 was somehow part of a republican plan to take biden down i have no evidence that doesn t mean it didn t happen was the post pandemic inflation created weaponized and used by republicans in an attempt to defeat joe biden even if this question is spread only by rumor and innuendo it could still have powerful consequences for the november election the rumor shows the 2021 2024 inflation to be trump s fault rather than biden s and the inflation has hit trump supporters has hit us all really hard in the pocketbook at june 11 2024 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels throwback older posts home subscribe to posts atom why economists must think in terms of the cycle of civilization i ve been hearing the phrase late capitalism for so long that i m forced to conclude that the very concept of late cap looks like vigor to me went to harbor freight the other day when i left there was so much traffic i had to fight my way out of the parking lot at one p m on let s see if this one gets me into trouble as i write this it is mid october in an even numbered year elections are weeks away yesterday i saw republican candidates heavily adver not the rate of interest but the cost of finance not inflation but the decline of growth it is surely true that the price level cannot rise without a corresponding increase in the quantity of money or velocity or use of credit the most important difference between cost push and demand pull inflation i m not a fan of diagrams in economics but sometimes this is a screen capture of slide 36 from a slideshare presentatio federal debt is the measure of economic troubles in the private sector not the cause of them the cause is excessive private sector debt private debt is too big and too costly it slows the economy it slows income growth it makes decent jobs scarce we lost our greatness to excessive private sector debt we can regain american greatness by reducing private debt if we do so before china has all the greatness note that we have many policies to encourage the use of credit and no policies to encourage repayment of debt selected fred data free ebooks forever fadedpage levy institute publications art s old vigor page click folder tab to view contents quick quotes on debt sbt hover for the quote click for the source steve keen sbe thomas palley sbe palley again same source sbe arthurian spontaneous sbe arthurian sbe id a j toynbee a study of history unabridged vol 1 page 1 abridgement vol 1 thru 10 id mostly old cost push stuff 1937 the general theory of employment 1958 the phillips curve paper 1959 charles schultze recent inflation in the united states 1960 richard lipsey on the phillips curve 1960 samuelson and solow problem of achieving and maintaining a stable price level 1962 arthur okun potential gdp its measurement and significance 1968 friedman s presidential address the role of monetary policy or alt link 1970 milton friedman the counter revolution in monetary theory 1974 f a hayek prize lecture the pretense of knowledge 1977 thomas m humphrey on cost...
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