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sed the coins they melted relatively pure silver coins and then struck new silver coins of lower purity but of nominally equal value silver coins were relatively pure before nero ad 54 68 but by the 270s had hardly any silver left the silver content of roman silver coins rapidly declined during the crisis of the third century ancient europe edit alexander the great s conquest of the persian empire in 330 bc was followed by one of the earliest documented inflation periods in the ancient world 26 rapid increases in the quantity of money or in the overall money supply have occurred in many different societies throughout history changing with different forms of money used 31 32 for instance when silver was used as currency the government could collect silver coins melt them down mix them with other less valuable metals such as copper or lead and reissue them at the same nominal value a process known as debasement at the ascent of nero as roman emperor in ad 54 the denarius contained more than 90 silver but by the 270s hardly any silver was left by diluting the silver with other metals the government could issue more coins without increasing the amount of silver used to make them when the cost of each coin is lowered in this way the government profits from an increase in seigniorage 33 this practice would increase the money supply but at the same time the relative value of each coin would be lowered as the relative value of the coins becomes lower consumers would need to give more coins in exchange for the same goods and services as before these goods and services would experience a price increase as the value of each coin is reduced 34 again at the end of the third century ad during the reign of diocletian the roman empire experienced rapid inflation 26 ancient china edit song dynasty china introduced the practice of printing paper money to create fiat currency 35 during the mongol yuan dynasty the government spent a great deal of money fighting costly wars and reacted by printing more money leading to inflation 36 fearing the inflation that plagued the yuan dynasty the ming dynasty initially rejected the use of paper money and reverted to using copper coins 37 medieval egypt edit during the malian king mansa musa s hajj to mecca in 1324 he was reportedly accompanied by a camel train that included thousands of people and nearly a hundred camels when he passed through cairo he spent or gave away so much gold that it depressed its price in egypt for over a decade 38 reducing its purchasing power a contemporary arab historian remarked about mansa musa s visit gold was at a high price in egypt until they came in that year the mithqal did not go below 25 dirhams and was generally above but from that time its value fell and it cheapened in price and has remained cheap till now the mithqal does not exceed 22 dirhams or less this has been the state of affairs for about twelve years until this day by reason of the large amount of gold which they brought into egypt and spent there chihab al umari kingdom of mali 39 medieval age and price revolution in western europe edit there is no reliable evidence of inflation in europe for the thousand years that followed the fall of the roman empire but from the middle ages onwards reliable data do exist mostly the medieval inflation episodes were modest and there was a tendency for inflationary periods to be followed by deflationary periods 26 from the second half of the 15th century to the first half of the 17th western europe experienced a major inflationary cycle referred to as the price revolution 40 41 with prices on average rising perhaps sixfold over 150 years this is often attributed to the influx of gold and silver from the new world into habsburg spain 42 with wider availability of silver in previously cash starved europe causing widespread inflation 43 44 european population rebound from the black death began before the arrival of new world metal and may have begun a process of inflation that new world silver compounded later in the 16th century 45 after 1700 edit the u s effective federal funds rate charted over fifty years a pattern of intermittent inflation and deflation periods persisted for centuries until the great depression in the 1930s which was characterized by major deflation since the great depression however there has been a general tendency for prices to rise every year in the 1970s and early 1980s annual inflation in most industrialized countries reached two digits ten percent or more the double digit inflation era was of short duration however inflation by the mid 1980s returned to more modest levels amid this general trends there have been spectacular high inflation episodes in individual countries in interwar europe towards the end of the nationalist chinese government in 1948 1949 and later in some latin american countries in israel and in zimbabwe some of these episodes are considered hyperinflation periods normally designating inflation rates that surpass 50 percent monthly 26 measures edit see also list of countries by inflation rate and consumer price index ppi is a leading indicator cpi and pce lag 46 ppi core ppi cpi core cpi pce core pce given that there are many possible measures of the price level there are many possible measures of price inflation most frequently the term inflation refers to a rise in a broad price index representing the overall price level for goods and services in the economy the consumer price index cpi the personal consumption expenditures price index pcepi and the gdp deflator are some examples of broad price indices however inflation may also be used to describe a rising price level within a narrower set of assets goods or services within the economy such as commodities including food fuel metals tangible assets such as real estate services such as entertainment and health care or labor although the values of capital assets are often casually said to inflate this should not be confused with inflation as a defined term a more accurate description for an increase in the value of a capital asset is appreciation the fbi cci the producer price index and employment cost index eci are examples of narrow price indices used to measure price inflation in particular sectors of the economy core inflation is a measure of inflation for a subset of consumer prices that excludes food and energy prices which rise and fall more than other prices in the short term the federal reserve board pays particular attention to the core inflation rate to get a better estimate of long term future inflation trends overall 47 the inflation rate is most widely calculated by determining the movement or change in a price index typically the consumer price index 48 the inflation rate is the percentage change of a price index over time the retail prices index is also a measure of inflation that is commonly used in the united kingdom it is broader than the cpi and contains a larger basket of goods and services inflation is politically driven and policy can directly influence the trend of inflation the rpi is indicative of the experiences of a wide range of household types particularly low income households 49 to illustrate the method of calculation in january 2007 the u s consumer price index was 202 416 and in january 2008 it was 211 080 the formula for calculating the annual percentage rate inflation in the cpi over the course of the year is 211 080 202 416 202 416 100 4 28 displaystyle left frac 211 080 202 416 202 416 right times 100 4 28 the resulting inflation rate for the cpi in this one year period is 4 28 meaning the general level of prices for typical u s consumers rose by approximately four percent in 2007 50 other widely used price indices for calculating price inflation include the following producer price indices ppis which measures average changes in prices received by domestic producers for their output this differs from the cpi in that price subsidization profits and taxes may cause the amount received by the producer to differ from what the consumer paid there is also typically a delay between an increase in the ppi and any eventual increase in the cpi producer price index measures the pressure being put on producers by the costs of their raw materials this could be passed on to consumers or it could be absorbed by profits or offset by increasing productivity in india and the united states an earlier version of the ppi was called the wholesale price index commodity price indices which measure the price of a selection of commodities in the present commodity price indices are weighted by the relative importance of the components to the all in cost of an employee core price indices because food and oil prices can change quickly due to changes in supply and demand conditions in the food and oil markets it can be difficult to detect the long run trend in price levels when those prices are included therefore most statistical agencies also report a measure of core inflation which removes the most volatile components such as food and oil from a broad price index like the cpi because core inflation is less affected by short run supply and demand conditions in specific markets central banks rely on it to better measure the inflationary effect of current monetary policy other common measures of inflation are gdp deflator is a measure of the price of all the goods and services included in gross domestic product gdp the us commerce department publishes a deflator series for us gdp defined as its nominal gdp measure divided by its real gdp measure gdp deflator nominal gdp real gdp displaystyle mbox gdp deflator frac mbox nominal gdp mbox real gdp regional inflation the bureau of labor statistics breaks down cpi u calculations down to different regions of the us historical inflation before collecting consistent econometric data became standard for governments and for the purpose of comparing absolute rather than relative standards of living various economists have calculated imputed inflation figures most inflation data before the early 20th century is imputed based on the known costs of goods rather than compiled at the time it is also used to adjust for the differences in real standard of living for the presence of technology asset price inflation is an undue increase in the prices of real assets such as real estate in some cases the measures are meant to be more humorous or to reflect a single place this includes the christmas price index which calculates the cost of the items mentioned in a song the twelve days of christmas 51 the big mac index which compares prices across countries 52 the jollof index which calculates the price of food needed to make a jollof rice a popular african dish 53 the two dishes one soup index which calculates the price of food needed to cook one soup and two other dishes for a small family in hong kong the herengracht index which calculates the price of housing in a fashionable neighborhood of amsterdam 54 the lipstick index which claimed that when the economy got worse small luxury sales such as lipstick would go up 55 issues in measuring edit measuring inflation in an economy requires objective means of differentiating changes in nominal prices on a common set of goods and services and distinguishing them from those price shifts resulting from changes in value such as volume quality or performance for example if the price of a can of corn changes from 0 90 to 1 00 over the course of a year with no change in quality then this price difference represents inflation this single price change would not however represent general inflation in an overall economy overall inflation is measured as the price change of a large basket of representative goods and services this is the purpose of a price index which is the combined price of a basket of many goods and services the combined price is the sum of the weighted prices of items in the basket a weighted price is calculated by multiplying the unit price of an item by the number of that item the average consumer purchases weighted pricing is necessary to measure the effect of individual unit price changes on the economy s overall inflation the consumer price index for example uses data collected by surveying households to determine what proportion of the typical consumer s overall spending is spent on specific goods and services and weights the average prices of those items accordingly those weighted average prices are combined to calculate the overall price to better relate price changes over time indexes typically choose a base year price and assign it a value of 100 index prices in subsequent years are then expressed in relation to the base year price 56 while comparing inflation measures for various periods one has to take into consideration the base effect as well inflation measures are often modified over time either for the relative weight of goods in the basket or in the way in which goods and services from the present are compared with goods and services from the past basket weights are updated regularly usually every year to adapt to changes in consumer behavior sudden changes in consumer behavior can still introduce a weighting bias in inflation measurement for example during the covid 19 pandemic it has been shown that the basket of goods and services was no longer representative of consumption during the crisis as numerous goods and services could no longer be consumed due to government containment measures lock downs 57 58 over time adjustments are also made to the type of goods and services selected to reflect changes in the sorts of goods and services purchased by typical consumers new products may be introduced older products disappear the quality of existing products may change and consumer preferences can shift different segments of the population may naturally consume different baskets of goods and services and may even experience different inflation rates it is argued that companies have put more innovation into bringing down prices for wealthy families than for poor families 59 inflation numbers are often seasonally adjusted to differentiate expected cyclical cost shifts for example home heating costs are expected to rise in colder months and seasonal adjustments are often used when measuring inflation to compensate for cyclical energy or fuel demand spikes inflation numbers may be averaged or otherwise subjected to statistical techniques to remove statistical noise and volatility of individual prices 60 61 when looking at inflation economic institutions may focus only on certain kinds of prices or special indices such as the core inflation index which is used by central banks to formulate monetary policy 62 most inflation indices are calculated from weighted averages of selected price changes this necessarily introduces distortion and can lead to legitimate disputes about what the true inflation rate is this problem can be overcome by including all available price...
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