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rk on the trump depression thursday july 26 2018 even using the ridiculous 400k smoothing factor favored by basel iii following up on my previous post graph 1 even using the ridiculous 400k smoothing factor favored by basel iii household debt runs downhill as a percent of all sectors debt since around 1970 see also debt grows faster than gdp at july 26 2018 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels household debt tuesday july 24 2018 the great american debt boom 1949 2013 the great american debt boom 1949 2013 pdf 36 pages by moritz kuhn moritz schularick ulrike i steins just from the title you already know that the debt boom paper is about the growth of debt in america and we didn t even get to the first sentence yet here is that sentence the american economy experienced a dramatic increase in household debt since world war ii now you know that the paper is about the growth of only one part of debt in america household debt household debt in red all sectors debt in blue both as percent of gdp graph 1 household debt is a small part of all sectors debt household debt as a percent of all sectors debt graph 2 since 1966 household debt has been a generally decreasing part of all sectors debt granted it was an increasing share between 1999 and 2006 the years before the crisis but the high point for household debt just before the crisis was 28 1 of all sectors debt compare that to 29 7 in 1980 and 30 5 in 1966 in 2013 the last year studied in the debt boom pdf household debt reached a low of 23 1 of all sectors debt by 2017 the year the study was published household debt had fallen to 22 1 of all debt household debt is a relatively small and generally decreasing share of all sectors debt in their abstract kuhn schularick and steins write a quantitative assessment of household balance sheets demonstrates that financial vulnerabilities of different strata of the income distribution have risen substantially you know what i don t doubt it i am confident they are correct in saying that financial vulnerabilities have risen substantially across income groups but i am not at all confident that a dramatic increase in household debt since world war ii is responsible for the rise in the financial vulnerability of households i think responsibility lies with the dramatic increase in all sectors debt debt which the pdf fails to consider at july 24 2018 2 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels household debt friday july 13 2018 free shipping my ass at july 13 2018 2 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest wednesday july 11 2018 the natural rate of interest and the financial cycle via reddit the natural rate of interest and the financial cycle by georgi krustev working paper number 2168 from the european central bank this paper s interesting well i have to say i ve been stumbling thru a lot of pdfs lately with john c williams s name on them and thomas laubach s and related papers on the natural rate of interest on the decline of the natural rate and on the cause of the decline given that context this paper is mighty interesting full disclosure i m only two pages into it but take a look at the abstract i extend the model of laubach and williams 2003 by introducing an explicit role for the financial cycle in the joint estimation of the natural rates of interest unemployment and output and the sustainable growth rate of the us economy by incorporating the financial cycle arguably an omitted variable from the system the model is able to deliver more plausible estimates of business cycle dynamics the sustained decline in the natural rate of interest in recent decades is confirmed but i estimate that strong and persistent headwinds due to financial deleveraging have lowered temporarily the natural rate on average by around 1 p p below its long run trend over 2008 14 this may have impaired the effectiveness of interest rate cuts to stimulate the economy and lift inflation back to target in the immediate aftermath of the gfc from what i ve seen laubach and williams 2003 is the starting point for a lot of what s happened since regarding the study of the natural rate of interest or r star krustev s paper takes their model and to it adds an explicit role for the financial cycle the paper makes finance a more central part of what s been happening in our economy and what s been happening to it and that s a good thing krustev s change to the laubach and williams model gives rise to more plausible estimates of business cycle dynamics in addition the modified model confirms the sustained decline found by other models these features are more of an advertisement for this paper than anything else but it s a good advertisement the real kicker comes at the end of the abstract i estimate that strong and persistent headwinds due to financial deleveraging have lowered temporarily the natural rate on average by around 1 percentage point below its long run trend over 2008 14 this may have impaired the effectiveness of interest rate cuts to stimulate the economy and lift inflation back to target in the immediate aftermath of the gfc that s interesting the effect of the deleveraging pushing the natural rate down is obvious now it has been pointed out and given that effect we should have expected to find the effectiveness of interest rate cuts impaired this explains both the decade of slow growth that followed the gfc and the trouble the fed had to bring inflation up to its two percent target the one paragraph abstract is followed by a one page non technical summary the summary expands on what we ve seen in the abstract there is another advertisement for krustev s paper he points out an apparent flaw in the laubach and williams model which is rectified by extending the model to include the financial cycle updated estimates of output gaps from the lw model since the global financial crisis gfc have shown substantial deviation from results derived on the basis of production function approaches consequently their plausibility has been questioned this kind of advertising i could read all day in addition the summary points out again that strong and persistent headwinds due to financial deleveraging have lowered the natural rate of interest on average by around 1 p p below its long run trend over 2008 14 this might have impaired the effectiveness of interest rate cuts to stimulate the economy and lift inflation back to target immediately after the gfc but the deleveraging worked itself out people apparently began to feel that they had deleveraged enough the focus on deleveraging gave way to other things krustev s story includes this change the dissipation of these headwinds implies that monetary policy should have regained traction since 2015 as the natural rate of interest rebounded aligning itself to its long run component i can only imagine that less deleveraging means less downward pressure on the natural rate so that the rate may have been tending to rise since 2015 i guess that s what regained traction means i m looking for as much as a 1 p p increase in the natural rate since that time and again i have to say that s interesting by way of comparison let me share part of what i hoped would become part of a long blog post about my thoughts on the natural rate of interest in 2015 in measuring the natural rate of interest redux thomas laubach and john c williams observed that persistently low real interest rates have prompted the question whether low interest rates are here to stay their answer here to stay yes since the start of the great recession the estimated natural rate of interest fell sharply and shows no sign of recovering shows no sign of recovering in 2016 in measuring the natural rate of interest international trends and determinants holston laubach and williams pointed out that sustained extraordinarily low interest rates in most advanced economies since the global financial crisis have heightened interest in the question of whether the natural rate of interest has permanently declined and why on the question of a permanent decline they answer we find no evidence that the natural rates are moving back up recently more recently in may of 2018 in the future fortunes of r star are they really rising williams wrote recently some economists and central bankers have pointed to signs that the fortunes of r star are set to rise i wish i could join in this optimism but i don t yet see convincing evidence of such a shift the longer run drivers still point to a new normal of a low r star and relatively low interest rates and by the way williams is talking about where interest rates will be not just over the next few months but over the next several years low for the next several years john c williams has held for some time that the decline in the natural rate of interest is permanent and that there are no indications of any rise in the rate this has been bothering me for a while now because when i look at the laubach and williams data i see a definite bottom around 2013 blue or now red and a very likely increase thereafter graph 1 the natural rate of interest from laubach williams data krustev s evaluation is more like my own so naturally i prefer it this paper is interesting i gotta go read more now at july 11 2018 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest sunday july 8 2018 federal and non federal debt should be roughly equal last time i looked at the use of control variables in regression and tried to express something that s been bothering me about them for a couple months now it seems pretty strange to me this idea that if you make something a control variable it suddenly has no effect on the outcome the idea that you can just control some variables to find out how your one independent variable affects economic growth is absurd my objection was that the outcome doesn t change the economic growth we got over the past 70 years is what it is it doesn t change for example when you control for everything except federal debt and then you change to controlling for everything except corporate debt the outcome doesn t change period the growth we got is the growth we got maybe that s a little silly i dunno there would be different measures of correlation comparing economic growth to federal debt versus comparing economic growth to corporate debt sure and maybe you can turn that into a story about the effect of federal versus corporate debt on economic growth something like we find in the real effects of debt maybe you can but i let it sit in the back of my mind for a couple months and i still couldn t see it jerry responded in comments on my previous post he said okay lets say x is the federal debt and y is the private debt corporate and household that i was looking at and he set up two examples a linear one and a non linear one in the linear example economic growth is z and z x 2y is how the economy works jerry says we can hold y constant and change x and calculate the effect of that change on z he says we can hold x constant and change y and calculate the effect of that change on z he says we can take the two effects and add them together to calculate the total effect on z so in other words there is nothing wrong with the method holding private debt constant while evaluating the effect of federal debt and holding the federal debt constant while evaluating the effect of private debt and then using or comparing the effects there is nothing wrong with this method but jerry did say that the total effect we calculate may or may not be close to accurate depending on whether debt actually has a linear effect on economic growth this is probably a much stronger objection than the one i made i think jerry is right his explanation is overwhelmingly good still in jerry s example and i presume also in the real effects of debt pdf you can calculate how economic growth would have changed if federal debt was constant while private debt was growing and you can calculate how it would have changed if private debt was constant while the federal debt was growing but i suspect you cannot know if either of these alternate realities are correct because as jerry says regression is only a mostly valid way to examine a nonlinear system and that s only if you re studying small movements in the system as the movements get larger the regression gets less valid and if there is one thing we know about debt it is that its effect is not linear now let me throw something else into the mix you can have a straight line or a line that isn t straight linear or non linear but the line that isn t straight may be almost straight or it may be extremely curvy maybe jerry s mostly valid case holds true more for curves that are almost linear than for those that are extremely non linear i want to suggest that it is not only whether you re studying small movements that affects the validity of your results but also the degree of non linearity of your source data jerry would probably say that for extremely small movements the line is very close to linear no matter what okay but he also says that determining whether a movement is large or small is a little subtle in other words the accuracy of the regression is a difficult thing to determine with confidence i suspect that a small mostly valid movement can be much larger for a curve that is almost linear than for an extremely non linear curve or in other words a small movement of any given size will be less accurate for data with a high degree of non linearity than for data with a low degree of non linearity just throwing that into the mix i also want to suggest that debt might have had linear effects the very first time somebody borrowed money when the first payment was made against that debt however the effects immediately became much more complicated since the very first time a loan was repaid over a period of time the effects of debt would have been non linear and the greater the financialization of the economy the greater the degree of non linearity in the effect of debt put that in your pipe and smoke it i want to go back to my concern with seeing the results change when debt changes i don t want to focus on calculating differences that may not even be valid i want to see the differences in actual economic growth that are due to differences in debt growth that i think would be useful suppose we take debt other than federal debt and look at it relative to the federal debt graph 1 the non federal debt relative to the federal debt here we have a picture of the relation between debt other than federal and the federal debt we do not attempt to calculate how it would look if federal debt was constant while private debt was growing we do not attempt to calculate how it would look if private debt was constant while the federal debt was growing we simply look at the actual relation between the private non fe...
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