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Text of the page (random words):
entually turn expansion into contraction i recently argued in favor of that view then against it then again in favor the resolution of my conflict worked out along these lines what causes recessions curses it still makes sense what burns said rising costs cause recession but then don t we also have rising costs during the expansion you can t expand if you don t spend more so it s not a sure thing that rising cost leads to recession rising cost won t lead to recession unless cost is rising faster than profit is there a way we might have rising costs that are not matched by rising profit well yes we had the oil crisis where everyone saw cost increases but only oil producers saw profit increases this kind of imbalance with widespread rising cost and narrowspread rising profit this kind of imbalance can turn expansion into recession and if the cost imbalance can turn expansion into recession then a lesser cost imbalance or one soothed say by a target of two percent inflation might give us sluggish economic growth at best should such a cost imbalance remain unresolved for decades our economy would be one of gradually declining economic growth and persistent mild inflation sound familiar why the cost problem endures if the cost imbalance has been created by flawed policy then policymakers same flawed thinking is likely to assure that the imbalance is never corrected if economists and policymakers think for example that using credit is always good for growth and that private sector debt can never be a problem then there is no stopping the growth of finance and no stopping the growth of the financial cost push finance well the cat s out of the bag now finance is unique what makes financial cost unique as a source of the cost push problem is the las vegas effect money that goes into finance tends to stay in finance the wages of labor by contrast tend to come out almost immediately and almost entirely the vegas effect creates cost imbalance without limit unless the size of finance is restrained by rigorous policy the growth of finance is not endlessly sustainable because it creates a gradually growing cost problem for those who pay the cost that is income to finance this growing cost problem at some point begins to reduce economic growth which creates a second problem declining income for those who pay the cost that is income to finance on the one hand the increasing cost of finance and on the other declining income growth in the non financial sector together they work like a vise squeezing the sector that is the source of income to finance the irony is that finance itself is the source of the cost problem that slows economic growth and ultimately pushes the cost of finance beyond a sustainable level the growth of financial cost sometimes a story of resource constraints is told where economic growth is so vigorous that logjams develop the production of natural resources for example cannot keep pace the prices of those products rise profits fall in the sectors that use those resources and you get cost push inflation but logjams due to excessive vigor cannot be the best explanation of cost push pressures in an economy that refuses to be vigorous the most frequently told story in recent decades seems to be that the labor market gets tight we get a logjam in the supply of labor and labor costs rise according to this story labor costs are the root cause of cost push inflation but rising wages do not create a cost imbalance as rising wages lead to widespread rising demand which leads to widespread rising profit not to mention that for the longest time wages have not been rising there must be a better explanation of cost push pressures there is a better explanation policy when inflation appears to be a threat the central bank raises interest rates inflation is associated with growth so to reduce the threat of inflation they reduce growth by raising financial cost when interest rates rise the cost increase is widespread but financial cost creates income for finance when financial costs rise the income of finance increases our existing anti inflation policy creates or adds to the cost we know as widespread rising financial cost but also as increasing income in the financial sector because of policy profit rises faster than cost in the financial sector while rising cost and falling profit elsewhere in the economy cause growth to slow a cost imbalance is created by this which can lead to cost push inflation that is completely unrelated to labor and natural resource costs and it can turn expansion into recession as arthur burns said moreover because this is our policy finance is the cost that typically leads to recession finance benefits by this policy at the expense of all the rest as the graph below shows early in the expansions that follow recessions profit of non financial corporations typically rises as a share of total corporate profits later in the typical expansion when concern about inflation arises and interest rates go up rising financial costs drive non financial profit down while financial profit rises financial red and non financial blue shares of corporate profits 1933 2018 financial profit rises as a share of total corporate profit before or during every recession shown on the graph except the 1974 and 1980 recessions which coincidentally can be attributed to rising oil prices financial profit rose from less than 6 of corporate profit in 1943 to more than 19 in 1970 and from 12 27 in 1981 to 42 in 2002 by design because of our anti inflation policy finance is the cost that typically leads to recession but policy doesn t only create the cost imbalances that create our recessions policy also assures the growth of the financial sector in other ways for example policy kept most business interest expenses fully tax deductible for a hundred years from 1918 to the tax cuts and jobs act of 2017 the pressures created by economic policy coupled with the economic forces that arise from human nature give rise to perpetually growing financial cost these same forces assure that the financial sector grows beyond its economies of scale these forces keep financial costs growing until they create cost imbalances that reduce non financial sector profit reduce growth and cause recession time after time after time to prevent this imbalance policy would have to prevent the extremes that arise from human nature rather than encouraging them financial cost is also financial income the more harm financial cost does to the productive sector the more people see financial investment as a better option than productive investment this further boosts the growth of finance over the whole period from 1943 to 2002 financial sector profit gained on non financial sector profit basically from world war two till the financial crisis finance was increasingly thought to be the better investment that thinking did massive harm to economic growth and productivity ironically the microeconomic solution where financial sector performance induces us to move more of our money into finance deepens the macroeconomic problem of cost imbalance not only does financial profit gain on nonfinancial until recession is created financial profit also grows faster than non financial profit over the long haul making economic growth in the good years between recessions increasingly difficult to achieve markup 3 fit not only does financial profit gain on non financial in the run up to recession but also over the long term the trend has been for financial profit to gain on non financial it is true of course that financial sector profit is growing because the financial sector is growing it may even be true that financial sector profit has grown faster than non financial because the financial sector itself has grown faster than the non financial okay well sure and that is the problem at january 03 2020 1 comment email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels the continuing cost problem newer posts older posts home subscribe to posts atom why economists must think in terms of the cycle of civilization i ve been hearing the phrase late capitalism for so long that i m forced to conclude that the very concept of late cap looks like vigor to me went to harbor freight the other day when i left there was so much traffic i had to fight my way out of the parking lot at one p m on let s see if this one gets me into trouble as i write this it is mid october in an even numbered year elections are weeks away yesterday i saw republican candidates heavily adver not the rate of interest but the cost of finance not inflation but the decline of growth it is surely true that the price level cannot rise without a corresponding increase in the quantity of money or velocity or use of credit the most important difference between cost push and demand pull inflation i m not a fan of diagrams in economics but sometimes this is a screen capture of slide 36 from a slideshare presentatio federal debt is the measure of economic troubles in the private sector not the cause of them the cause is excessive private sector debt private debt is too big and too costly it slows the economy it slows income growth it makes decent jobs scarce we lost our greatness to excessive private sector debt we can regain american greatness by reducing private debt if we do so before china has all the greatness note that we have many policies to encourage the use of credit and no policies to encourage repayment of debt selected fred data free ebooks forever fadedpage levy institute publications art s old vigor page click folder tab to view contents quick quotes on debt sbt hover for the quote click for the source steve keen sbe thomas palley sbe palley again same source sbe arthurian spontaneous sbe arthurian sbe id a j toynbee a study of history unabridged vol 1 page 1 abridgement vol 1 thru 10 id mostly old cost push stuff 1937 the general theory of employment 1958 the phillips curve paper 1959 charles schultze recent inflation in the united states 1960 richard lipsey on the phillips curve 1960 samuelson and solow problem of achieving and maintaining a stable price level 1962 arthur okun potential gdp its measurement and significance 1968 friedman s presidential address the role of monetary policy or alt link 1970 milton friedman the counter revolution in monetary theory 1974 f a hayek prize lecture the pretense of knowledge 1977 thomas m humphrey on cost push theories of inflation in the pre war monetary literature id papers by johannes a schwarzer sbt samuelson and solow on the phillips curve and the menu of choice a retrospective 2013 sbe growth as an objective of economic policy in the early 1960s the role of aggregate demand 2014 sbe price stability versus full employment the phillips curve dilemma reconsidered 2016 sbe retrospectives cost push and demand pull inflation milton friedman and the cruel dilemma 2018 sbe id papers by norikazu takami 1950s cost push sbt baffling inflation cost push inflation theories in the late 1950s united states 2014 sbe the baffling new inflation how cost push inflation theories influenced policy debate in the late 1950s united states 2015 sbe id archive org links sbt archive org home sbe note at archive org the upper right corner search is for all of archive org to search the open book click the search icon on the left side of the window and use quotes around search phrases sbe historical statistics thru 1970 part 1 arrighi g the long twentieth century dalio r economic principles how the economic machine works delong h a profile of mathematical logic r c k ensor england 1870 1914 finley m i the ancient economy friedman m free to choose friedman m money mischief kissinger h the meaning of history reflections on spengler toynbee and kant leuchtenburg w franklin d roosevelt and the new deal leuchtenburg w the perils of prosperity lot ferdinand the end of the ancient world and the beginnings of the middle ages montagu a toynbee and history critical essays and reviews mullineux a w business cycles and financial crises quigley the evolution of civilizations rostovtzeff the social and economic history of the roman empire terborgh george the new economics tooke thomas an inquiry into the currency principle toynbee aj a study of history volumes i vi abridged wanniski jude the way the world works sbe id timelines industrial capitalism sbe mercantile capitalism sbe 10000 years of economy sbe id blog themes and on the pedestal these words appear my name is ozymandias king of kings look on my works ye mighty and despair nothing beside remains shelley toynbee maintained that the fate of civilizations is determined by their response to the challenges facing them stefan zenker the ideas of economists and political philosophers both when they are right and when they are wrong are more powerful than is commonly understood indeed the world is ruled by little else j m keynes economic policy encourages credit use and discourages the repayment of debt that s how we in the private sector got so indebted nathan becker attempts to describe complex interactions in the economy with overly simple adages can lead to incorrect conclusions meyer and tasci i remarked that a plurality of suffrages is no guarantee of truth where it is at all of difficult discovery as in such cases it is much more likely that it will be found by one than by many descartes i have thought it important not only to explain my own point of view but also to show in what respects it departs from the prevailing theory j m keynes blogthemes blog archive 2025 136 october 4 september 19 august 12 july 6 june 10 may 11 april 23 march 19 february 11 january 21 2024 100 december 15 november 9 october 14 september 10 august 7 july 12 june 7 may 3 march 13 february 7 january 3 2023 118 december 6 november 15 october 8 september 8 august 4 july 3 june 16 may 15 april 12 march 8 february 12 january 11 2022 159 december 22 november 17 october 13 september 6 august 4 july 9 june 12 may 4 april 11 march 22 february 15 january 24 2021 204 december 8 november 21 october 15 september 17 august 11 july 13 june 22 may 19 april 17 march 22 february 18 january 21 2020 139 december 20 november 20 october 8 september 11 august 13 july 8 may 2 april 18 march 16 february 19 january 4 whats wrong with the economy in 25 words or so concern about declining growth turns half a though the continuing cost problem short version the continuing cost problem 2019 202 december 9 november 13 october 18 september 15 august 16 july 20 june 18 may 15 april 27 march 25 february 12 january 14 2018 202 december 12 november 13 october 20 september 11 august 8 july 8 june 19 may 20 april 30 march 31 february 30 labels gothedistance 1966 3 inflation target 400k smoothing an alternative to the wage push inflation thesis apr13 arnold j toynbee attitude brooks adams civilization and decay calculating labor share civilization cmz cost pressure and the decline of civilization cy...
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