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description= 4 posts published by Reidar Visser during December 2006;
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iraq, and, for, the, gulf, analysis, archive, december, 2006, archives, categories, meta, my, latest, book, on, amazon, com, twitter, updates, subscribe, recent, posts, timetabled, conditional, surge, strategy, dealing, with, sadrists, study, group, regionalisation, not, balkanisation, federalism, from, below, in, some, historical, comparative, reflections,
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the (697), and (205), for (116), that (114), iraq (100), iraqi (85), with (75), this (65), from (59), would (58), #federalism (45), but (42), was (39), their (38), iqlim (37), some (32), are (32), 2006 (31), has (30), referendum (29), have (28), two (28), not (28), one (27), more (26), may (26), process (24), spain (24), which (24), new (24), regions (24), there (23), had (23), etherington (23), federal (22), regional (22), should (22), politicians (22), level (21), about (21), all (21), even (21), december (21), also (20), such (20), region (20), governorates (20), been (20), any (20), janub (20), united (20), shiite (19), could (19), constitution (18), local (18), political (18), government (18), states (18), surge (18), national (17), sadrists (17), law (16), autonomy (16), into (16), pre (16), governorate (16), were (16), policy (16), other (15), point (15), can (15), many (15), initiative (15), basra (15), poll (15), october (15), its (15), initiatives (15), what (15), they (15), sadrist (15), below (14), will (14), federalisation (14), wasat (14), might (14), issues (13), 2005 (13), today (13), june (13), time (13), 2008 (13), 2010 (13), 2013 (13), these (12), areas (12), current (12), scale (12), most (12), april (12), only (12), forces (12), washington (12), january (12), 2014 (12), 2007 (12), 2009 (12), 2011 (12), 2012 (12), like (11), constitutional (11), under (11), majority (11), than (11), middle (11), najaf (11), baghdad (11), between (11), september (11), kind (11), february (11), situation (11), november (11), august (11), report (10), without (10), administrative (10), politics (10), 2004 (10), state (10), spanish (10), well (10), rafidayn (10), case (10), perhaps (10), south (10), march (10), support (10), same (10), make (10), pro (10), wasit (10), general (10), security (10), reconciliation (10), war (10), control (9), small (9), through (9), whereas (9), far (9), how (9), very (9), those (9), international (9), particular (9), iraqis (9), turn 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ther declared war aims such as a model democracy for the middle east or even a torch of secularism in the region are distinctly unrealistic the bush administration should therefore start by admitting in a very public manner that grave mistakes in the conduct of the iraq war have created a situation in which the american presence has had a destructive rather than a unifying effect and that the current policy is working to the detriment of both iraqi and american interests to boost troop levels in the current situation without at the same time addressing fundamental issues of national reconciliation would simply perpetuate and augment the artificial sectarianism that has exploded in iraqi politics over the past years similarly to rely exclusively on the baker hamilton recommendation of increased regional diplomacy in itself a commendable proposal would probably be difficult given the likely lapse of time before real results with the potential to induce national reconciliation in iraq would filter through any credible troop surge then would have to be moulded as a one off project to try to open a new chapter in us iraqi relations if attempted it should consist of a herculean effort in which the united states would undertake to make available the very best of its mighty resources to create the sort of post 1945 european reconstruction climate that it should have aimed at once the fateful decision to go to war was taken back in 2003 this would mean more troops temporarily but such an increase would make sense only in the context of a definitive timetable for the surge including substantial and speedy reductions after the surge phase to levels far below current ones as well as specific guarantees and limits concerning foreign bases and foreign advisers two factors which historically have provoked allergic reactions among iraqis and have made many of their governments worthless in the eyes of the general public but with this kind of concessions to iraqi nationalism washington would also be in a position to make certain demands on the iraqi government in return for the investment any surge should be made conditional on immediate constitutional and legal reform to defuse sectarianism and to get all components of iraqi society back to the table in particular there would need to be real concessions on the part of the forces that have so far dominated the constitutional and legislative process the two biggest kurdish parties and sciri over issues like de baathification militias and federalism importantly the united states would be able to appeal to popular iraqi nationalist sentiment on this whereas politicians in the green zone have made federalism and de baathification into holy cows most ordinary iraqis south of kurdistan i e those who actually experienced the baathist regime of the 1990s do not care a fig for federalism and know well that most of the population at some point had to engage in dealings with the former regime only in this way would the quarrelsome elite politicians of the iraqi parliament come under some substantial pressure from below it would become painfully clear that by insisting on their narrow pet projects and various causes célèbres they are effectively hindering national reconciliation diminishing the prospects for a reduction of foreign troops levels and preventing all iraqis from sharing the oil income that theoretically could have made them into one of the wealthiest nations in the region by pursuing this kind of policy the united states might be able to turn nationalism into a formidable tailwind for its reconstruction efforts in iraq but this would require a serious rethink in washington above all the bush administration must realise that it needs to prioritise the real components of iraqi society like the powerful sadrist base instead of seeking hollow truces among elite politicians jostling for positions in the iraqi government posted in uia dynamics us policy in iraq leverage issues comments off on a strategy for dealing with the sadrists the iraq study group regionalisation not balkanisation posted by reidar visser on wednesday 6 december 2006 20 06 in a remarkable rejection of partitionist winds that have blown through america over the past year the iraq study group isg in its report of 6 december 2006 recommended a final big push for the iraqi national reconciliation process with the collective effort of regional powers as a potential catalyst as far as state structure issues are concerned partition or any kind of unconstitutional federalisation whether from above by iraqi elite politicians or on the basis of foreign advice was apparently never taken seriously by the isg already prior to the release of the report a few members of the isg working groups had complained to the press that they had felt marginalised during the process and that their proposals never truly came on the agenda the report itself rather brusquely dismisses the prospect of devolution to three regions p 43 citing arguments that for once are almost identical to those of the bush administration practical infeasibility and the dangers of greater regional chaos elsewhere the report mostly shuns the federalisation question with the implicit message that the isg envisages this process to stay on track according to the constitution outside kurdistan federal decentralisation is optional not mandatory and if it is to be done it will start by initiatives from below in the iraqi governorates not by baghdad politicians or by outsiders with plans for iraq instead the report advocates a serious attempt to get the national reconciliation process back on track especially as regards re inclusion of the sunnis to facilitate this it proposes new initiatives at several levels perhaps most significantly there are proposals to work for greater regional momentum that could be conducive to a more peaceful iraq the isg advocates the creation of an international support group for iraq that would include neighbouring states which in a collective forum might be able to transcend some of their narrow interests linked to their particular protégées inside iraq importantly active steps to progress in the wider arab israeli conflict and the palestine issue are recognised as a central pillar for improving the regional atmosphere the isg also suggests that the iraqi government itself is not doing enough to drive the national reconciliation effort forward it focuses on the need for rapprochement with the marginalised sunnis and introduces several new ideas about how to achieve that these include a suggestion for united nations support in the constitutional revision process a rather outspoken criticism of the current iraqi constitution s allotment of undiscovered future oil fields to the regions instead of to the central government apparently the criticism is also directed against regional control of the oil sector as such international arbitration over kirkuk and a delay of the kirkuk referendum pp 65 66 there is also a more general talk to everyone but al qaida attitude throughout the report many of these proposals are quite radical in that they explicitly challenge the current version of the iraqi constitution but at the same time they also serve as alternatives that could receive consideration in the constitutional review process some of these suggestions have earlier been floated in international ngos and by figures working in the united nations system it is likely that the driving forces behind the 2005 constitution chiefly the two big kurdish parties and the supreme council for the islamic revolution in iraq sciri will feel threatened by some of the recommendations in the report on the other hand these suggestions should appeal to a large silent majority of iraqi nationalists of both shiite and sunni backgrounds as well as to regional powers worried about iraqi decentralisation spinning out of control in the current situation regionalisation and multilateralism generally come across as good ideas although the united states should not underestimate the desire of regional powers to keep them engaged mired down in iraq the proposed overtures to regional powers in turn reflect a failure of united states policy in the middle east in two areas firstly inside iraq it relates to a communications problem the isg report explicitly acknowledges this p 14 asserting that the united states is unable to talk to the most important shiite figure the grand ayatollah ali al sistani and does not talk to another important political leader muqtada al sadr this has led to sole reliance on the shiite party that best understands how to deal with washington sciri which happens to be the party with the most long standing and systematic ties to iran and which is also the author of the shiite federalism proposal that most infuriates the sunnis but sciri account only for some 23 of the deputies within the big pro shiite united iraqi alliance uia and their elevation to a pre eminent contact point reflects a failure on the part of washington to engage other partners among the shiites this has created some remarkable contradictions in us policy there was something distinctly trojan about the way in which pro iranian sciri leader abd al aziz al hakim was invited to washington for high level talks only days after a leaked memo by secretary of defence donald rumsfeld had advocated a robust strengthening of us forces along the border with iran to physically protect iraq against iranian influences the second issue that has precipitated a turn to regional powers relates to overall us policy in the region importantly the isg recognises the inter relationships between iraq and broader regional issues until there is a minimum of consistency in the us approach to democracy and human rights issues across different countries in the middle east it will remain unable to conduct an ideological foreign policy and will rely on compromises with regional states this also affects the situation in iraq where many parties are reluctant to talk to the united states precisely because they are unconvinced about washington s overall vision for the region until the us becomes more energetic in solving the arab israeli conflict chiefly by speeding up the process towards an independent palestinian state within borders approximating the pre 1967 situation and with an honourable settlement for the 1948 refugees this problem of scarcity of local pro democracy partners will remain posted in iraq and soft partition us policy in iraq leverage issues comments off on the iraq study group regionalisation not balkanisation federalism from below in iraq some historical and comparative reflections posted by reidar visser on monday 4 december 2006 14 54 paper presented to the international workshop iraq after the new government stabilisation reconstruction and the security regional scenario arranged by the landau network como italy 24 25 november 2006 reidar visser norwegian institute of international affairs the iraqi choice of federalism as a system of government is not surprising but the particular path to federalism established in the iraqi constitution is truly remarkable 1 among the 25 existing federations of the world the vast majority belong to one of two categories or to a combination of these two firstly there are evolutionary federations either polities that developed gradually from below by the amalgamation of entities that wished to federate as in switzerland or those built on imperial remnants similarly created over time but which with a single stroke were converted into federations often at independence like micronesia secondly there are designed federations political systems whose geographical make up has been decided by a small group of political elites often in closed doors forums of experts on constitutional questions and democratic theory examples include south africa and ethiopia only one existing federation has a method for implementing federalism comparable to that of the new iraq spain 2 federalism from below spain s experience the unique feature of spanish federalism as expressed in the 1978 constitution based on a precedent from the 1931 constitution of the short lived second republic is the role of the popular initiative in designing the federal map of the country in theory at least the federal entities of spain were to be crafted from below abajo arriba bottom up through initiatives at the municipal level the 1978 constitution allows contiguous provinces to amalgamate into autonomous regions provided that at least two thirds of the municipalities concerned and representing at least a majority of the population of each of the affected provinces have assented to the federalisation initiative such efforts can be launched every five years until successful on paper this resembles the mechanisms adopted in the 2005 iraqi constitution and the subsequent legislation for implementing federalism with the exception of baghdad all iraqi governorates south of kurdistan 14 altogether are free to combine into federal regions on the basis of referendums and the initiative for the referendum rests with the local governorates in that one tenth of voters or one third of governorate council members can call a plebiscite thus the thresholds for starting an autonomy initiative are markedly lower than in spain as is the moratorium on renewed attempts one year only but the principles are similar 3 however the actual experiences of spain in the crucial years of transition from 1978 to 1983 illustrate how building federalism from below can involve unexpected complications and may prove to be less of a bottom up enterprise than initially envisaged the first point concerns the danger of federal chaos and reactions from conservative forces if the federalisation process should develop in unforeseen ways in spain it had generally been expected that two or three regions with long standing autonomy demands would take steps to ensure autonomous status whereas the remainder of the country would retain a more unitary state structure in fact however several candidates for self rule suddenly materialised out of the blue members of the old establishment particularly within the military reacted negatively towards what they saw as a decentralisation process running out of control and even many democratically inclined politicians were critical of the rapid proliferation of autonomy ideas in areas where such demands had no past history 4 matters came to a head with a military coup attempt in february 1981 at that point spanish politicians decided that greater top down control was needed and they effectively took over the job of completing and sealing the country s federal map including the demarcation of the federal regions of central spain 5 a compromise on federalism was thus an integral part of the package that facilitated spain s transition to democracy in fact in the 1990s spain was able to reopen the federalism debate in a les...
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