Meta tags:
description= 15 posts published by Lars Syll during June 2014;
Headings (most frequently used words):
of, the, one, on, piketty, assumptions, model, is, recent, comments, lars, syll, paul, krugman, case, dangerous, neglect, methodological, reflection, phil, mirowski, neoliberalism, bob, rowthorn, questions, two, central, spirit, tallis, feat, anna, sandström, real, damage, done, wage, rigidity, and, importance, checking, your, did, keynes, accept, lm, if, you, only, have, time, to, read, statistics, book, this, woman, seventeen, british, accents, second, fundamental, law, capitalism, skidelsky, need, for, an, economics, curriculum, reform, ricardian, equivalence, total, horseshit, so, what, imf, warns, swedish, housing, bubble, elasticity, substitution, short, refresher, posts, policy, reading, list, categories, archives,
Text of the page (most frequently used words):
the (367), and (181), that (111), are (50), for (43), #economics (42), not (42), with (41), new (40), this (38), share (34), have (32), jun (32), has (32), assumptions (30), 2014 (29), models (29), from (28), one (27), opens (27), window (27), krugman (27), model (25), but (24), keynes (24), what (22), which (22), may (21), capital (20), more (20), his (20), when (20), comments (19), theory (18), only (18), income (18), bluesky (18), facebook (18), real (18), jan (17), time (17), can (17), you (17), mar (16), apr (16), posted (16), piketty (16), than (16), they (16), about (16), jul (15), aug (15), sep (15), oct (15), nov (15), dec (15), feb (15), lönebildning (15), och (15), arbetslöshet (15), how (15), their (14), lars (13), 2012 (13), 2013 (13), there (13), would (13), equilibrium (13), 2015 (12), 2016 (12), 2017 (12), 2018 (12), 2019 (12), 2020 (12), 2021 (12), 2022 (12), 2023 (12), 2024 (12), 2025 (12), statistical (12), people (12), uncertainty (12), poverty (12), neoclassical (11), increase (11), value (11), other (10), 2011 (10), between (10), some (10), also (10), rather (10), mathematical (10), into (10), modern (10), keynesian (10), future (9), all (9), where (9), prices (9), data (9), rate (9), without (9), any (9), today (9), macroeconomic (9), much (9), social (9), economic (9), ratio (9), these (9), hicks (9), now (8), science (8), statistics (8), being (8), same (8), many (8), house (8), kind (8), point (8), really (8), own (8), world (8), consumption (8), taxes (8), wealth (8), because (8), expectations (8), use (8), even (8), issues (8), made (8), most (8), our (8), useful (8), will (7), growth (7), since (7), markets (7), household (7), ricardian (7), equivalence (7), them (7), doesn (7), using (7), should (7), then (7), general (7), make (7), economists (7), economies (7), market (7), way (7), output (7), report (6), 2026 (6), recent (6), like (6), why (6), nothing (6), research (6), rise (6), off (6), housing (6), fundamental (6), often (6), been (6), very (6), high (6), sweden (6), over (6), who (6), interest (6), large (6), too (6), standard (6), students (6), thought (6), university (6), study (6), get (6), were (6), causal (6), money (6), analysis (6), thinking (6), your (6), evidence (6), economy (6), paul (6), first (5), mechanisms (5), makes (5), years (5), government (5), perhaps (5), based (5), earlier (5), percent (5), included (5), assets (5), had (5), such (5), was (5), out (5), according (5), used (5), making (5), able (5), total (5), mainstream (5), its (5), post (5), law (5), statement (5), long (5), constant (5), methods (5), quite (5), far (5), framework (5), conditions (5), seems (5), forces (5), empirical (5), actually (5), question (5), done (5), although (5), errors (5), distribution (5), importance (5), comes (5), building (5), fact (5), non (5), say (5), just (5), him (5), interesting (5), wage (5), maximizing (5), classical (5), rosenberg (5), comment (4), view (4), syll (4), varia (4), econometrics (4), fred (4), limited (4), policy (4), philosophy (4), net (4), terms (4), elasticity (4), substitution (4), greater (4), course (4), different (4), work (4), usual (4), usually (4), two (4), take (4), until (4), below (4), risen (4), price (4), again (4), almost (4), households (4), position (4), ultimately (4), implies (4), changes (4), present (4), maximization (4), form (4), gives (4), labour (4), basically (4), through (4), rational (4), problems (4), always (4), right (4), within (4), explain (4), term (4), part (4), year (4), sense (4), while (4), better (4), hand (4), understanding (4), amount (4), variables (4), least (4), mean (4), random (4), book (4), microfounded (4), anything (4), put (4), little (4), something (4), article (4), explanation (4), those (4), yellow (4), hats (4), rigidity (4), back (4), still (4), against (4), after (4), regularities (4), systems (4), math (4), reader (3), log (3), com (3), blog (3), methodology (3), politics (3), society (3), especially (3), professor (3), impact (3), does (3), argues (3), goes (3), enough (3), incomes (3), short (3), come (3), increasing (3), self (3), process (3), give (3), instability (3), swedish (3), central (3), perspective (3), source (3), calculations (3), indebtedness (3), financial (3), single (3), debt (3), every (3), think (3), reflecting (3), man (3), himself (3), wrote (3), reality (3), timing (3), assumption (3), simply (3), agent (3), typically (3), utility (3), modeling (3), financing (3), savings (3), higher (3), thus (3), indeed (3), applied (3), found (3), great (3), journals (3), going (3), phenomena (3), well (3), turn (3), processes (3), steady (3), state (3), inherently (3), dynamic (3), uses (3), equal (3), second (3), example (3), important (3), impossible (3), inference (3), convenience (3), samples (3), substantive (3), explicit (3), theoretical (3), error (3), particular (3), conventional (3), available (3), values (3), however (3), conclusions (3), hoc (3), complex (3), find (3), behind (3), both (3), confidence (3), waving (3), live (3), place (3), 1980 (3), extent (3), suggests (3), gadget (3), macroeconomics (3), dafs (3), men (3), behavior (3), welfare (3), unemployment (3), questions (3), increased (3), poor (3), said (3), pse (3), adequate (3), children (3), deprivation (3), living (3), rowthorn (3), owners (3), measured (3), decades (3), shares (3), lead (3), denote (3), case (3), rest (3), silly (3), simple (3), relevant (3), reflection (3), target (3), don (3), relations (3), formalized (3), exhibits (3), wrong (3), required (2), write (2), manage (2), sign (2), subscribed (2), subscribe (2), already (2), wordpress (2), school (2), reading (2), arbetslösheten (2), inte (2), ones (2), links (2), nobel (2), toolkit (2), page (2), probably (2), refers (2), returns (2), strong (2), means (2), twenty (2), century (2), refresher (2), explanations (2), willing (2), generating (2), bubble (2), unlike (2), asset (2), therefore (2), trying (2), argue (2), serious (2), away (2), neither (2), above (2), levels (2), seen (2), published (2), development (2), debts (2), disposable (2), deeply (2), increases (2), family (2), homes (2), tenant (2), owned (2), april (2), remained (2), pushing (2), lower (2), consequence (2), system (2), warns (2), imf (2), taught (2), country (2), nonsense (2), never (2), burdensome (2), moment (2), pay (2), probable (2), difficult (2), sum (2), believe (2), ricardo (2), funding (2), empirically (2), jonathan (2), facts (2), direction (2), follows (2), interpreted (2), unchanged (2), euler (2), equation (2), representative (2), consumer (2), consuming (2), instead (2), function (2), dsge (2), treating (2), decisions (2), expenditures (2), agents (2), order (2), robert (2), skidelsky (2), historical (2), tools (2), beliefs (2), wellbeing (2), certainly (2), curriculum (2), reform (2), structure (2), classics (2), basis (2), publication (2), academic (2), manchester (2), exclusion (2), begins (2), need (2), text (2), several (2), explanatory (2), warnings (2), clear (2), intent (2), toward (2), unfortunately (2), thrown (2), idealized (2), explained (2), inequality (2), set (2), constantly (2), immediate (2), analyze (2), happens (2), less (2), stable (2), near (2), specifically (2), 2159 (2), strength (2), force (2), depend (2), under (2), british (2), generally (2), ask (2), principle (2), predict (2), resulting (2), ways (2), deeper (2), mechanism (2), assumed (2), answer (2), investigators (2), consider (2), introduced (2), minor (2), major (2), regression (2), sometimes (2), common (2), outside (2), cannot (2), imaginary (2), population (2), strategy (2), discussed (2), results (2), inferences (2), sampling (2), mere (2), restrictive (2), behavioral (2), collection (2), become (2), answers (2), critically (2), certain (2), instance (2), 2010 (2), ought (2), david (2), read (2), see (2), accepted (2), construct (2), ignores (2), genuine (2), investment (2), notes (2), insights (2), lost (2), role (2), bad (2), aren (2), probability (2), following (2), expected (2), low (2), risk (2), quantifiable (2), stochastic (2), know (2), did (2), monetary (2), entities (2), setting (2), reflect (2), nature (2), logical (2), famous (2), 1937 (2), john (2), parts (2), journal (2), adequately (2), taking (2), observe (2), sunny (2), days (2), wearing (2), few (2), observed (2), grain (2), successful (2), loss (2), theories (2), lucas (2), concludes (2), during (2), supported (2), good (2), others (2), checking (2), growing (2), number (2), parents (2), sacrifice (2), food (2), parent (2), sure (2), breadline (2), families (2), employed (2), says (2), bristol (2), quality (2), shows (2), gap (2), widening (2), causes (2), three (2), ever (2), measures (2), revealed (2), spirit (2), tallis (2), feat (2), anna (2), sandström (2), show (2), thing (2), day (2), contrary (2), conventionally (2), either (2), apparent (2), valuation (2), effect (2), argument (2), factor (2), shall (2), totality (2), conclusion (2), accepts (2), concession (2), threatens (2), undercut (2), arguments (2), brilliantly (2), help (2), working (2), provide (2), method (2), ourselves (2), factors (2), themselves (2), obviously (2), art (2), contemporary (2), convincing (2), around (2), simpler (2), thanks (2), critique (2), defending (2), various (2), falls (2), otherwise (2), things (2), before (2), tongue (2), cheek (2), lot (2), endeavours (2), rationality (2), hardly (2), enormous (2), waste (2), times (2), laws (2), mathematically (2), additive (2), unstable (2), samuelson (2), oriented (2), neglect (2), methodological (2), reflexivity (2), emphasized (2), perfect (2), perfectly (2), modifications (2), combine (2), writes (2), website, name, email, loading, collapse, bar, subscriptions, site, content, privacy, account, join, 607, subscribers, feeds, entries, 112, archives, 708, 542, 997, 389, 301, education, 167, categories, list, fredtorssander, wiklund, follow, netiquette, anonymous, pseudo, argumentations, abusive, language, irrelevant, please, remember, full, leaves, respond, winning, prize, tycker, väljarna, vinster, skolan, rethinking, tidöregeringens, dårhusmässiga, ekonomiska, visdom, democracy, outperforms, dictatorship, reification, randomisation, guarantee, nancy, cartwright, contributions, sverige, randomness, representativeness, credible, credibility, revolution, statsskulden, problemet, ett, välförtjänt, bottenrekord, audioholic, summer, stein, paradox, lesson, precision, unbiasedness, posts, next, thomas, continue, production, accumulating, diminishing, isn, stop, expanding, labor, reasoning, totally, transparent, interested, video, assistance, bubbles, expect, keep, buying, houses, steadily, cumulative, wicksell, myrdal, core, commodities, demand, curves, downwards, upwards, leverage, yours, truly, punch, bowl, mostly, felt, voice, calling, desert, bank, nor, listen, compairing, figures, could, refreshing, sector, alarmingly, figure, month, showing, 1990, boom, started, mid, 1990s, looking, 1986, reasons, worried, loans, among, steepest, concern, picked, exceeding, annual, 121, apartments, credit, 175, 190, associations, indicate, ratios, across, groups, particularly, indebted, vulnerable, shocks, aggregate, solid, illiquid, buffer, sudden, drop, employment, banking, rising, unsustainabe, joseph, stiglitz, twitter, graduate, sheer, laureate, paid, estimate, private, affairs, accordingly, apt, war, proportion, called, duration, convince, possessed, 000, perpetual, payment, per, annum, equally, tax, 1000, underlines, reason, fairy, tale, mirabile, dictu, didn, 1820, essay, yesterday, voxeu, summarized, series, studies, testing, reconfirming, line, parker, fit, knew, importantly, move, invariant, discounted, affect, problem, specified, expression, indifferent, unit, tomorrow, logarithmic, rewritten, discounting, parameter, maximizes, holdings, having, lifetime, portrayed, dichotomous, phenomenon, consume, facing, intertemporal, budget, constraint, contemplating, acting, equivalent, must, repaid, equipped, leaving, horseshit, pitifully, thin, distillation, wisdom, topics, addresses, whatever, practical, solve, creative, tension, concerning, human, flourishing, deserve, imperial, status, best, remind, physics, richer, history, textbooks, starters, teaching, embedded, institutional, ideological, movement, rewards, orthodoxy, penalizes, heresy, smith, veblen, untaught, allocated, espouse, promotion, crash, keeping, intellectual, apparatus, discipline, excluded, dissenting, opinion, crisis, arguably, ultimate, manifesto, advocated, approach, evaluate, perspectives, unreal, dan, kervick, introduces, abbreviates, benefit, introductory, pages, describe, converge, run, remain, relatively, abbreviated, habit, asymptotic, limits, evolve, unchanging, constraints, accounts, partially, dynamical, evolution, evolves, commentators, gone, fallaciously, deduce, absurd, fluctuations, misrepresents, surrounding, focus, misguided, indefinitely, limiting, 2115, distance, measure, rapidity, moving, approximately, ordinary, capitalism, impressive, woman, seventeen, accents, highly, suspicious, efforts, develop, generalizations, dataset, happen, repeated, repeat, attendant, replication, doing, replications, similarly, interventions, intervening, tried, demonstrate, risky, business, worse, proceed, progress, depends, generation, practice, overlap, maneuvering, produced, behave, closely, commonly, connection, hypothesized, linear, combination, seldom, justified, correlations, create, bias, estimated, coefficients, textbook, exposition, squares, observational, units, indexed, response, variable, conceptualized, disturbances, represent, variation, omitted, drawn, independently, gaussian, finite, variance, identifiable, studied, directly, treated, sample, whose, frailty, elaborations, trade, rarely, impacts, analytic, obtained, operates, technicality, revision, periphery, becomes, integral, technique, explicitly, implicitly, readily, calibrate, nowadays, salient, routinely, answered, wellknown, tests, statistician, cambridge, press, marvellous, mandatory, scientist, including, econometricians, want, succumb, unsupported, freedman, given, earnest, essentially, cyclical, character, activities, speculation, endogenous, axel, leijonhufvud, eloquently, inklings, adaptive, dynamics, statics, coordination, translation, current, numéraire, definitely, downgrades, interests, ruling, roost, investments, liquidity, preferences, regard, neo, walrasian, modelled, dimensionality, incorporate, presupposes, dictates, reducing, implicit, analyses, permeated, unmeasurable, thinks, base, weight, events, alternatives, weighing, probabilities, degrees, belief, preciously, probabilistic, modeled, sciences, fortiori, trivializes, finance, play, commenting, bother, loanable, funds, obvious, created, depicts, banks, determine, reduces, interaction, nominal, constrained, simplistic, analyzing, financialised, static, comparative, substantial, processual, takes, historic, ergodic, entropic, concept, niels, bohr, writings, considering, anywhere, faithful, rendering, canonical, essence, suggest, existence, pure, invented, review, suggested, interpretation, returned, usefully, survives, classroom, superseded, later, application, drastic, inappropriate, acknowledges, original, ignored, significant, temporary, discussions, speed, relative, adjustments, quantities, commodity, wages, econometrica, quarterly, width, depth, workings, references, wanting, dwell, upon, lord, accept, fanciful, illustrate, danger, narrow, instrumentalism, explorer, seeking, contact, isolated, tribe, known, villages, binoculars, morning, bright, stand, backyards, sweeping, gestures, sky, finally, arrange, meeting, meet, plainer, believing, leaders, offer, presents, outraged, assault, mark, slaves, throw, chickens, yard, inside, rainy, worth, settle, arm, test, risks, sneak, closer, precisely, task, rigidities, reasonable, hope, contribute, associated, reduce, include, partial, described, recessions, strongly, support, information, distinguishes, microeconomic, yielding, recommendations, calls, address, bradshaw, york, shown, clothing, life, try, protect, women, likely, sacrifices, cutting, clothes, visits, suffer, cases, skimped, meals, eat, majority, small, revelation, unearthed, dispelling, myth, propagated, ministers, lack, gordon, townsend, centre, international, clearly, failed, scientific, suffering, rich, coalition, aimed, eradicate, tackling, million, unable, afford, heat, winter, largest, urged, tackle, united, kingdom, led, haves, nots, further, project, britons, doubled, past, despite, doubling, size, period, damage, erik, hegelund, another, realist, accord, numerical, specification, closing, nodal, picture, trends, advanced, due, accumulation, fallen, identified, disproportionate, plausible, unduly, rests, crucial, once, granted, ensures, surveyed, briefly, appendix, result, big, primarily, interchangeably, reserve, productive, evaluated, added, symbol, denotes, equated, profits, documents, considerable, correlation, reflects, link, responsible, reach, assumes, understood, finding, similar, unity, asserts, movements, estimates, 221, bob, milch, phil, mirowski, neoliberalism, let, respectfully, summarize, calibrated, rbc, rightly, notices, complicated, object, machine, blind, manipulation, furnish, infallible, organized, orderly, reached, provisional, isolating, complicating, allow, interactions, amongst, applying, formal, principles, wood, matter, ilk, obey, warrants, supposing, hypotheses, causally, bridged, justifiable, theorists, regardless, monetarist, ontological, heed, joined, choosing, compelled, natural, material, respects, homogeneous, final, court, appeal, justification, forward, inferential, bridging, warrant, inductive, posed, formalistic, representations, utilized, match, facto, noticed, myself, agreement, discussing, austerity, euro, constructions, vein, spite, criticize, directed, waiting, helps, wouldn, realistic, talk, criticizes, explications, issue, shed, light, inconsistency, argumentation, couple, criticized, mathematics, axiomatics, maintains, buy, embodied, carefully, end, depression, energy, constructing, substantially, contributing, ability, grasp, somehow, sharpen, thoughts, paper, basket, father, allowed, overrun, giving, authors, celestial, prestige, experience, embed, ideas, exercise, harder, leads, clearer, defended, words, italics, piece, kinds, established, presuppose, atomistic, operate, changing, combinations, whole, mechanical, obtain, rule, engineered, purpose, nomological, machines, rare, existant, useless, disclose, econometric, starting, endeavour, possibility, vital, unobservable, necessarily, epistemologically, inaccessible, considered, message, modelers, isolate, handle, macromodels, change, export, hold, consequently, understandings, predictions, ceteris, paribus, forerunners, young, contributed, looks, argued, else, field, eyes, pretty, klutzy, modeler, degree, diagram, got, admitting, tendency, excessive, equate, hard, vehemently, defends, mathematization, came, surprise, works, modelling, dichotomy, proclaimed, proud, neoclassicist, endless, harpings, old, string, told, splendour, hicksian, invention, preferred, responded, here, regarding, combined, together, greatly, limit, power, predictively, reflexive, outcomes, breaking, down, complete, feature, needs, reckon, george, soros, along, pervasive, tend, shift, missing, treatment, recognition, frank, knight, persistent, presence, scope, equilibria, concessions, defend, admit, alternative, trouble, tell, prospect, improving, neuroeconomics, experimental, evolutionary, game, etc, body, built, functioning, economist, maybe, half, profession, knows, abstraction, modified, whenever, nobody, rules, exactly, prediction, cut, variety, seem, individual, depart, chair, department, duke, renowned, methodologist, author, magazine, diminshing, alex, dangerous, gretl, downloadable, publications, lps,
Text of the page (random words):
or shares an increase in k y will only lead to an increase in α when the elasticity of substitution between capital and labour σ is greater than unity piketty asserts that this is the case indeed based on movements α and β he estimates that σ is between 1 3 and 1 6 page 221 thus piketty s argument rests on two crucial assumptions β k y and σ 1 once these assumptions are granted the neoclassical theory of factor shares ensures that an increase in β will lead to an increase in α in fact neither of these assumptions is supported by the empirical evidence which is surveyed briefly in the appendix this evidence implies that the large observed rise in β in recent decades is not the result of a big rise in k y but is primarily a valuation effect piketty argues that the higher income share of wealth owners is due to an increase in the capital output ratio resulting from a high rate of capital accumulation the evidence suggests just the contrary the capital output ratio as conventionally measured has either fallen or been constant in recent decades the apparent increase in the capital output ratio identified by piketty is a valuation effect reflecting a disproportionate increase in the market value of certain real assets a more plausible explanation for the increased income share of wealth owners is an unduly low rate of investment in real capital robert rowthorn it seems to me that rowthorn is closing in on the nodal point in piketty s picture of the long term trends in income distribution in advanced economies as i wrote the other day being able to show that you can get the piketty results using one or another of the available standard neoclassical growth models is of course from a realist point of view of limited value as usual the really interesting thing is how in accord with reality are the assumptions you make and the numerical values you put into the model specification h t erik hegelund share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky the spirit of tallis feat anna sandström 23 jun 2014 at 20 08 posted in varia comments off on the spirit of tallis feat anna sandström the real damage done 23 jun 2014 at 19 35 posted in economics 1 comment the number of britons living in poverty has more than doubled over the past 30 years a report has revealed about one in three uk families now live below the breadline despite the british economy doubling in size over the same period the uk s largest ever study into poverty in the country has urged the government to take measures to tackle growing levels of poverty the poverty and social exclusion in the united kingdom pse project led by the university of bristol has revealed the wealth gap between the haves and the have nots in the uk is widening still further almost 18 million people are unable to afford adequate housing while one in three do not have the money to heat their homes in winter the coalition government aimed to eradicate poverty by tackling the causes of poverty said professor david gordon from the townsend centre for international poverty research at the university of bristol their strategy has clearly failed the available high quality scientific evidence shows that poverty and deprivation have increased since 2010 the poor are suffering from deeper poverty and the gap between the rich and poor is widening perhaps the most interesting revelation unearthed by the report is the fact that most of the people living in poverty are employed dispelling the myth propagated by ministers that poverty is a consequence of lack of work the pse report says it found that the majority of children living below the breadline live in small families with at least one employed parent in households that suffer from food deprivation the study found that parents often sacrifice their own wellbeing for that of their children in 93 percent of cases at least one parent skimped on meals often to make sure others had enough to eat according to the study women were more likely to make sacrifices cutting back on clothes and social visits the research has shown that in many households parents sacrifice their own welfare going without adequate food clothing or a social life in order to try to protect their children from poverty and deprivation professor jonathan bradshaw of the university of york said in the pse s statement the report calls on the government to address the growing number of poor in the uk rt com share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky wage rigidity and the importance of checking your model assumptions 23 jun 2014 at 10 20 posted in economics comments off on wage rigidity and the importance of checking your model assumptions the task of this book is to explain wage rigidities it seems reasonable to hope that a successful explanation of wage rigidity would contribute to understanding the extent of the welfare loss associated with unemployment and what can be done to reduce it many theories of wage rigidity and unemployment include partial answers to these questions as part of their assumptions so that the phenomena of real interest are described in the theories assumptions for instance lucas concludes that increased unemployment during recessions implies little welfare loss lucas s policy conclusions are not strongly supported good support can come only from information that distinguishes his microeconomic assumptions from others yielding different policy recommendations a fanciful example may illustrate the danger of taking too narrow a view of instrumentalism you are an explorer seeking contact with the dafs an isolated tribe about which almost nothing is known you observe one of their villages through binoculars from far away you observe that every morning on sunny days men wearing bright yellow hats stand in the backyards and make sweeping gestures toward the sky when you finally arrange a meeting with some dafs you meet a few men with yellow hats and a few other plainer people believing the first to be leaders you offer them presents at which point all the dafs are outraged and assault you what you have not observed is that yellow hats mark slaves who throw grain to the household chickens in the yard on sunny days and inside on rainy ones it would have been worth your while not to settle for treating arm waving and wearing yellow hats as the phenomena to be explained but to test your assumptions about behavior by taking risks to sneak up closer and see precisely what the men were up to share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky did keynes accept the is lm model 22 jun 2014 at 19 13 posted in economics 1 comment lord keynes has some interesting references and links for those wanting to dwell upon the question if keynes really accepted hicks s is lm model my own view is that is lm doesn t adequately reflect the width and depth of keynes s insights on the workings of modern market economies 1 almost nothing in the post general theory writings of keynes suggests him considering hicks s is lm anywhere near a faithful rendering of his thought in keynes s canonical statement of the essence of his theory in the famous 1937 quarterly journal of economics article there is nothing to even suggest that keynes would have thought the existence of a keynes hicks is lm theory anything but pure nonsense john hicks the man who invented is lm in his 1937 econometrica review of keynes general theory mr keynes and the classics a suggested interpretation returned to it in an article in 1980 is lm an explanation in journal of post keynesian economics self critically he wrote that the only way in which is lm analysis usefully survives as anything more than a classroom gadget to be superseded later on by something better is in application to a particular kind of causal analysis where the use of equilibrium methods even a drastic use of equilibrium methods is not inappropriate what hicks acknowledges in 1980 is basically that his original is lm model ignored significant parts of keynes theory is lm is inherently a temporary general equilibrium model however much of the discussions we have in macroeconomics is about timing and the speed of relative adjustments of quantities commodity prices and wages on which is lm doesn t have much to say 2 is lm forces to a large extent the analysis into a static comparative equilibrium setting that doesn t in any substantial way reflect the processual nature of what takes place in historical time to me keynes s analysis is in fact inherently dynamic at least in the sense that it was based on real historic time and not the logical ergodic non entropic time concept used in most neoclassical model building and as niels bohr used to say thinking is not the same as just being logical 3 is lm reduces interaction between real and nominal entities to a rather constrained interest mechanism which is far too simplistic for analyzing complex financialised modern market economies 4 is lm gives no place for real money but rather trivializes the role that money and finance play in modern market economies as hicks commenting on his is lm construct had it in 1980 one did not have to bother about the market for loanable funds from the perspective of modern monetary theory it s obvious that is lm to a large extent ignores the fact that money in modern market economies is created in the process of financing and not as is lm depicts it something that central banks determine 5 is lm is typically set in a current values numéraire framework that definitely downgrades the importance of expectations and uncertainty and a fortiori gives too large a role for interests as ruling the roost when it comes to investments and liquidity preferences in this regard it is actually as bad as all the modern microfounded neo walrasian new keynesian models where keynesian genuine uncertainty and expectations aren t really modelled especially the two dimensionality of keynesian uncertainty both a question of probability and confidence has been impossible to incorporate into this framework which basically presupposes people following the dictates of expected utility theory high probability may mean nothing if the agent has low confidence in it reducing uncertainty to risk implicit in most analyses building on is lm models is nothing but hand waving according to keynes we live in a world permeated by unmeasurable uncertainty not quantifiable stochastic risk which often forces us to make decisions based on anything but rational expectations keynes rather thinks that we base our expectations on the confidence or weight we put on different events and alternatives to keynes expectations are a question of weighing probabilities by degrees of belief beliefs that often have preciously little to do with the kind of stochastic probabilistic calculations made by the rational agents as modeled by modern social sciences and often we simply do not know 6 is lm not only ignores genuine uncertainty but also the essentially complex and cyclical character of economies and investment activities speculation endogenous money labour market conditions and the importance of income distribution and as axel leijonhufvud so eloquently notes on is lm economics one doesn t find many inklings of the adaptive dynamics behind the explicit statics most of the insights on dynamic coordination problems that made keynes write general theory are lost in the translation into the is lm framework given this it s difficult to see how and why keynes in earnest should have accepted hicks s construct share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky if you only have time to read one statistics book this is the one 21 jun 2014 at 12 19 posted in statistics econometrics comments off on if you only have time to read one statistics book this is the one mathematical statistician david a freedman s statistical models and causal inference cambridge university press 2010 is a marvellous book it ought to be mandatory reading for every serious social scientist including economists and econometricians who doesn t want to succumb to ad hoc assumptions and unsupported statistical conclusions how do we calibrate the uncertainty introduced by data collection nowadays this question has become quite salient and it is routinely answered using wellknown methods of statistical inference with standard errors t tests and p values these conventional answers however turn out to depend critically on certain rather restrictive assumptions for instance random sampling thus investigators who use conventional statistical technique turn out to be making explicitly or implicitly quite restrictive behavioral assumptions about their data collection process more typically perhaps the data in hand are simply the data most readily available the moment that conventional statistical inferences are made from convenience samples substantive assumptions are made about how the social world operates when applied to convenience samples the random sampling assumption is not a mere technicality or a minor revision on the periphery the assumption becomes an integral part of the theory in particular regression and its elaborations are now standard tools of the trade although rarely discussed statistical assumptions have major impacts on analytic results obtained by such methods consider the usual textbook exposition of least squares regression we have n observational units indexed by i 1 n there is a response variable yi conceptualized as μi i where μi is the theoretical mean of yi while the disturbances or errors i represent the impact of random variation sometimes of omitted variables the errors are assumed to be drawn independently from a common gaussian distribution with mean 0 and finite variance generally the error distribution is not empirically identifiable outside the model so it cannot be studied directly even in principle without the model the error distribution is an imaginary population and the errors i are treated as if they were a random sample from this imaginary population a research strategy whose frailty was discussed earlier usually explanatory variables are introduced and μi is hypothesized to be a linear combination of such variables the assumptions about the μi and i are seldom justified or even made explicit although minor correlations in the i can create major bias in estimated standard errors for coefficients why do μi and i behave as assumed to answer this question investigators would have to consider much more closely than is commonly done the connection between social processes and statistical assumptions we have tried to demonstrate that statistical inference with convenience samples is a risky business while there are better and worse ways to proceed with ...
|
