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description= 15 posts published by Lars Syll during February 2019;
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e on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky the limits of probabilistic reasoning 23 feb 2019 at 08 45 posted in statistics econometrics 2 comments almost a hundred years after john maynard keynes wrote his seminal a treatise on probability 1921 it is still very difficult to find statistics books that seriously try to incorporate his far reaching and incisive analysis of induction and evidential weight the standard view in statistics and the axiomatic probability theory underlying it is to a large extent based on the rather simplistic idea that more is better but as keynes argues more of the same is not what is important when making inductive inferences it s rather a question of more but different variation not replication is at the core of induction finding that p x y p x y w doesn t make w irrelevant knowing that the probability is unchanged when w is present gives p x y w another evidential weight running 10 replicative experiments do not make you as sure of your inductions as when running 10 000 varied experiments even if the probability values happen to be the same according to keynes we live in a world permeated by unmeasurable uncertainty not quantifiable stochastic risk which often forces us to make decisions based on anything but rational expectations keynes rather thinks that we base our expectations on the confidence or weight we put on different events and alternatives to keynes expectations are a question of weighing probabilities by degrees of belief beliefs that often have preciously little to do with the kind of stochastic probabilistic calculations made by the rational agents as modelled by modern social sciences and often we simply do not know science according to keynes should help us penetrate to the true process of causation lying behind current events and disclose the causal forces behind the apparent facts models can never be more than a starting point in that endeavour he further argued that it was inadmissible to project history on to the future consequently we cannot presuppose that what has worked before will continue to do so in the future that statistical models can get hold of correlations between different variables is not enough if they cannot get at the causal structure that generated the data they are not really identified how strange that economists and other social scientists as a rule do not even touch upon these aspects of scientific methodology that seems to be so fundamental and important for anyone trying to understand how we learn and orient ourselves in an uncertain world an educated guess on why this is a fact would be that keynes concepts are not possible to squeeze into a single calculable numerical probability in the quest for quantities one puts a blind eye to qualities and looks the other way but keynes ideas keep creeping out from under the statistics carpet the validity of the inferential models we as scientists use ultimately depends on the assumptions we make about the entities to which we apply them applying the traditional calculus of probability presupposes far reaching ontological presuppositions if we are prepared to assume that societies and economies are like urns filled with coloured balls in fixed proportions then fine but really who could earnestly believe in such an utterly ridiculous analogy in a real world full of unknown unknowns and genuine non ergodic uncertainty urns are of little avail human decisions affecting the future whether personal or political or economic cannot depend on strict mathematical expectation since the basis for making such calculations does not exist and that it is our innate urge to activity which makes the wheels go round our rational selves choosing between the alternatives as best we are able calculating where we can but often falling back for our motive on whim or sentiment or chance j m keynes added tom hickey as always has some interesting comments on this post here share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky malmö i litteraturen 22 feb 2019 at 17 19 posted in varia comments off on malmö i litteraturen 1 hemstaden jacques werup 1981 2 underdog torbjörn flygt 2001 3 de ensamma pojkarna mats olsson 1995 4 stuv malmö kom fredrik ekelund 1984 5 yarden kristian lundberg 2009 monismus in der ökonomischen hochschullehre 22 feb 2019 at 13 49 posted in economics 1 comment eine reihe von studien des forschungsinstituts für gesellschaftliche weiterentwicklung hat in den letzten jahren den zustand der ökonomik in deutschland untersucht dabei wurde unter anderem gefragt welche lehrbücher verwendet werden wie plural sie sind und was eigentlich der wissenschaftliche nachwuchs über sein fach denkt insgesamt bestätigen die studierenden der stichprobe die kritikpunkte der pluralismus debatte sie nehmen im lehralltag kaum bezüge zu angrenzenden disziplinen wahr wie z b geschichte psychologie oder soziologie dabei stimmt der großteil der befragten 74 2 der aussage zu dass erkenntnisse aus anderen fächern notwendig seien um ökonomische sachverhalte verstehen zu können stattdessen sei das vwl studium praxisfern 55 und von einer starken mathematischen grundausrichtung geprägt dies zeigt sich besonders in den vermittelten methoden es dominieren gleichgewichts 93 5 und aggregierte ma kroökono mische modelle 92 4 sowie regressions bzw zeitreihenanalysen 78 6 andere sozialwissenschaftliche zugänge wie fallstudien 27 5 experimente 22 4 umfragen 11 4 oder diskurs 8 4 bzw netzwerkanalysen 3 0 würden dagegen kaum in den ersten vier semestern vermittelt dies gilt ebenso für neuerungen innerhalb der vwl wie z b die bereiche neuroökonomik 2 4 und ökonophysik 0 6 das auseinanderdriften zwischen wissenschaft und gesellschaft und die wahrgenommenen einseitigkeiten in der ökonomischen hochschullehre führen allerdings nicht dazu dass sich die studierenden verstärkt für eine erneuerung ihres faches einsetzen zwar hat der großteil der befragten schon von der pluralismus debatte gehört nur wenige verfolgen diese jedoch intensiv und allein ein bruchteil ist persönlich engagiert etwa über die teilnahme an entsprechenden veranstaltungsreihen oder durch die mitarbeit in lokalen initiativen eva schweitzer krah tim engartner mmt krugman still does not get it 21 feb 2019 at 20 47 posted in economics 41 comments krugman complains that lerner was too cavalier in his discussion of monetary policy since he called for the interest rate to be set at the level that produces the most desirable level of investment without saying exactly what that rate should be it s an odd critique since krugman himself subscribes to the idea that monetary policy should target an invisible neutral rate a so called r star that exists when the economy is neither depressed nor overheating for what it s worth research suggests the neutral rate may be flat out wrong and fed chairman jerome powell has admitted that the fed has been too cavalier in relying on variables that cannot be measured directly and which can only be estimated with great uncertainty but lerner wasn t trying to use interest rates to optimize the economy that was a job for fiscal policy he argued that the government should be prepared to spend whatever is necessary to sustain full employment without raising taxes or borrowing krugman s other objection is that lerner didn t fully address the limitations both technical and political on tax hikes or spending cuts as a means of fighting inflation in fact lerner actually had quite a lot to say about this here s the opening sentence to an entire chapter on the subject in his 1951 book the economics of employment we have now concluded our treatment of the economics of employment but a word or two must be added on the politics and the administration of employment policies in general and of functional finance in particular emphasis in original where does that leave us paul krugman and i agree on a great many things but we come at certain questions from a fundamentally different place he believes there are inherent tradeoffs between fiscal and monetary policy outside of the so called liquidity trap krugman adopts the standard line that budget deficits crowd out private investment because deficits compete with private borrowing for a limited supply of savings the mmt framework rejects this since government deficits are shown to be a source not a use of private savings some careful studies show that crowding out can occur but that it tends to happen in countries where the government is not a currency issuer with its own central bank this seems like a disagreement we should be able to resolve either empirically or intuitively but who knows as lerner wrote a man convinced against his will retains the same opinion still stephanie kelton few issues in politics and economics are nowadays more discussed and less understood than public debt many raise their voices to urge for reducing the debt but few explain why and in what way reducing the debt would be conducive to a better economy or a fairer society and there are no limits to all the especially macroeconomic calamities and evils a large public debt is supposed to result in unemployment inflation higher interest rates lower productivity growth increased burdens for subsequent generations etc etc but the truth is that public debt is normally nothing to fear especially if it is financed within the country itself but even foreign loans can be beneficent for the economy if invested in the right way some members of society hold bonds and earn interest on them while others have to pay the taxes that ultimately pay the interest on the debt the debt is not a net burden for society as a whole since the debt cancel itself out between the two groups if the state issues bonds at a low interest rate unemployment can be reduced without necessarily resulting in strong inflationary pressure and the inter generational burden is also not a real burden since if used in a suitable way the debt through its effects on investments and employment actually makes future generations net winners there can of course be unwanted negative distributional side effects for the future generation but that is mostly a minor problem since when our children and grandchildren repay the national debt these payments will be made to our children and grandchildren to both keynes and lerner it was evident that the state has the ability to promote full employment and a stable price level and that it should use its powers to do so if that means that it has to take on debt and more or less temporarily underbalance its budget so let it be public debt is neither good nor bad it is a means to achieve two over arching macroeconomic goals full employment and price stability what is sacred is not to have a balanced budget or running down public debt per se regardless of the effects on 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