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y adnan z amin speaks to gitika bhardwaj about how this transition is set to disrupt the geopolitical landscape gîtiez bhardwaj adnan z amin director general of the international renewable energy agency solar panels at the noor concentrated solar power csp plant which is located 20km outside ouarzazate in morocco the solar plant is one of the largest in the world designed to boost renewable energy production in morocco photo getty images the world is undergoing an energy transformation from a system based on fossil fuels to a system based on renewable energy in order to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions and avoid the most serious impacts of a changing climate how does this transition have the potential to reshape the geopolitical landscape and how does it compare to the impact of the last transition from traditional biomass energy 200 years ago the last transition created an energy system that was based on resources that are geographically concentrated this allowed the exercise of geopolitical power around the distribution of those resources which in turn had economic advantages for those countries that extracted those resources but we are now moving from an energy system of scarcity to one of potential abundance for almost every country around the world this is because almost every country will have some degree of energy independence in the new energy system we are moving to since almost every country will be able to harness renewable energy this shift is a fundamental change for the world and it s going to have a profound impact on the global economy that s why i believe that the energy transition we are going through is going to be as consequential if not more than the last one we experienced 200 years ago how do you anticipate countries particularly those that have benefitted from fossil fuel production in the past to respond to these geopolitical changes given that it could potentially disrupt existing power dynamics and trade patterns one of the greatest challenges that the energy transition presents is for fossil fuel producing countries many of which are countries that have run their economies on these resources in the past to adopt a new diversified economic model we are beginning to see the emergence of this around the world in the united arab emirates for example there is an energy strategy in place that is calling for 70 per cent decarbonization and 44 per cent clean energy power generation by 2050 this is at the base of an economic diversification strategy to move away from their reliance on one particular resource which currently is oil i think this is a critical challenge for many countries who are in the same situation for example although saudi arabia is trying to diversify its economy it faces immense challenges although it s vision 2030 strategy points the way towards moving in a positive direction but there are other countries that are unprepared if you think of the possibilities that a fast moving energy transition has for the prices of fossil fuel resources and the impact it could have on countries like nigeria angola gabon and others that are highly dependent on these resources then unless they have ambitious strategies of economic diversification they could face some severe challenges in the near future in terms of the geopolitics the trade in oil and gas has been at the base of the geopolitical system we have today but if you think of the fact that we are moving away from these resources into a much more electrified world with power movements across borders based on electricity from renewable energy there is an enormous opportunity for fossil fuel producing countries this is because many of them are rich in renewable energy resources too so there is a chance for them to remain as energy players however it needs leadership and it needs vision to make it happen how are emerging economies across south america asia and africa responding to the global energy transition at a time that they are seeking to develop their economies one of the most exciting things is that they are already responding well what has happened over the last four years is that renewables have formed the majority in new capacity addition to the global power sector which is remarkable furthermore the majority of renewables capacity addition has been in emerging economies and developing countries so some of these countries are really pointing the way towards a very exciting future you have leaders in this field like morocco which is coming from a 90 per cent energy import dependency to a target of having 52 per cent renewables in their electricity mix by 2030 which is an extraordinary achievement i ve seen some of their installations and they have state of the art technology and low cost power generation that s competitive with any fossil fuel power generation in the country chile too has some of the lowest prices for renewable electricity in the world and it s quickly moving to a zero carbon energy economy what these countries are showing is that this is the development strategy of the future especially for emerging economies it s not merely about the replacement of one fuel for another it s a whole new paradigm of development that is emerging based on the current global energy transition wind turbines at the san gorgonio pass wind farm near palm springs in california us located in the gap between southern california s two highest mountains the facility is one of three major wind farms in the state photo getty images in a recent report the transition to renewables is said to be set to reduce the risk of energy fuelled conflicts and as such you recently said that renewable energy is the defence policy of the future can you explain this in more detail particularly given the increasing security concerns posed by climate change fossil fuels particularly oil have had a marked imprint on patterns of conflict over the last 100 years as the world shifts to renewables and the relative importance of fossil fuels declines a geopolitical shift in the frequency and location of conflict is likely to occur the risk of confrontation over contested hydrocarbon reserves such as in the middle east or in the south china sea may diminish to this extent the global energy transformation could generate a peace dividend climate change poses an existential security threat to humanity but renewable energy serves as a defence policy for the future as it plays an essential role in all strategies to combating climate change the latest ipcc report set out evidence of the need to limit global warming to a maximum of 1 5 c above pre industrial levels in order to prevent irreversible changes to the earth but unless urgent steps are taken to decarbonize the energy sector the world will remain way off this target this is because pathways to a low carbon economy require a rapid deployment of renewable energy and a doubling of energy efficiency given that the energy sector accounts for two thirds of global greenhouse gas emissions renewables have the added potential to mitigate against wider socio economic stresses and shocks that can lead to conflict too by improving access to energy to the 1 billion people who are energy poor by creating jobs reducing local pollution promoting sustainable development and alleviating competition over scarce natural resources the renewable energy sector has achieved a number of milestones and currently employs over 10 million people globally are there any challenges presented by the global energy transition that need to be considered for example safeguarding those currently working in fossil fuel industries there is a lot of discussion about the disruption of the energy transition which is correct that s why i think it should be a priority for policymakers and decision makers to understand how the transition to renewable energy will impact everyone if the energy transformation begins to permeate into industrial sectors that have traditionally been dominated by fossil fuel energy there could potentially be severe social disruption and we are currently seeing the fear of this disruption playing out in the coal industry however there are some innovative models like a model that has recently emerged in spain to enable a just transition in the coal sector social arrangements have been made to accommodate spanish coal workers in the future as the country moves towards its renewable energy transition but then if you think about how technology is beginning to reshape the global economy if we move rapidly into the renewable energy based electrification of the economy where major sectors like mobility become increasingly electric then you could see the whole supply chain of conventional vehicles that employs millions of people around the world with hundreds of billions of dollars of investment very quickly begin to experience significant challenges so there is a lot of work to be done in terms of developing a cross understanding of industrial policy and social policy for example understanding the scale of this energy transformation how it will affect significant sectors in the economy what kind of coping strategies there are and how we can create a workforce fit for the future which will involve reskilling the present workforce i believe this has to be at the centre of thinking for policymakers and decision makers today i wholeheartedly believe that we have the opportunity to move to a decarbonized society that can at least keep us below 2 c but unless we have the will at different levels of society from politics to industry that incentivizes investment in low carbon growth then i fear we may not achieve the goals of the paris agreement read on www chathamhouse org expert comment how global energy transition set disrupt geopolitical landscape posted in climate change on april 7 2019 by john 2 comments the only way to halt climatechange is to challenge the logic of capitalism auspol climatestrike extinctionrebellion stopadani we need a new narrative p we need to break with a system in which the value of everything is determined by how much money it can make for the wealthy by grace blakeley momentum activists demonstrate outside barclays bank on 30 march last saturday as brexit continued to dominate the headlines momentum activists sought to draw the nation s attention to a slightly more pressing issue the group staged protests outside bank branches across the uk to put pressure on financial institutions such as barclays to stop financing climate chaos after a report revealed that the bank is the largest single lender to fossil fuel companies and chaos is exactly what we are facing on current trends the planet is set to warm by at least three degrees by 2030 at such temperatures the environmental systems that sustain human life would start to collapse harvests would fail water cycles would be disrupted and extreme weather events would become the norm huge swathes of the planet would become uninhabitable killing millions of people and displacing many more historically climate activists have often been fond of telling us that we re all in this together and that only by working across political and ideological boundaries can we hope to save the planet they have focused on grand international summits where politicians business leaders and bureaucrats meet to decide the fate of humanity and return to their nation states with plans for carbon taxes emissions trading schemes and nuclear power stations but climate change is and always has been a class issue it has been caused by the wealthy and its effects will fall on the poor just 100 companies are responsible for 70 per cent of all carbon emissions globally the wealthiest 10 per cent are responsible for 50 per cent of all lifestyle consumption emissions in the uk the top 10 per cent is responsible for nearly 25 per cent of lifestyle consumption emissions with the bottom 50 per cent responsible for just five and it is the poorest parts of the world that will be most ravaged by the effects of climate change low lying states like bangladesh are incredibly vulnerable to flooding as sea levels rise africa s sahel region home to nearly 200 million people will become desertified as temperatures increase as brutally demonstrated by cyclone idai the poorest states are also those least able to protect their citizens from extreme weather events and if climate change is a class issue then decarbonisation should be a class project the only way to halt climate change is to challenge the logic of capitalism itself that the value of everything land knowledge and even human life is determined by how much money it can make for the wealthy some argue that such a mission is impossible averting the apocalyptic scenario laid out in the recent ipcc report requires reducing global emissions by 45 per cent by 2030 an incredibly ambitious target others are slightly more optimistic pointing out that the world is currently experiencing something of a solar revolution costs have fallen by a factor of ten over the last decade and solar power generation is increasing at a remarkable rate of 30 40 per cent per year both the optimists and the pessimists have a point we do have the technology to prevent our planet from decaying into an uninhabitable hothouse earth but as long as corporations banks and even governments continue to profit from fossil fuels decarbonisation will remain a distant dream saturday s protesters understand this point all too well in targeting major financial institutions like barclays they were attempting to strike at the heart of modern financialised capitalism without access to financial markets most fossil fuel firms would struggle to survive but given the scale of the challenge we must be far more ambitious dealing with the existential threat humanity is facing requires the kind of radical state intervention that no liberal government would consider and no international institution would allow it requires a global green new deal citizens must pressure their political leaders into implementing a just transition towards a zero carbon economy this would mean a huge increase in state spending in the area of 30 per cent of gdp per year to decarbonise energy and transport infrastructure and boost investment in green technologies the costs of such a project should be imposed on the wealthy this will require tax reform constraints on capital mobility and the replacement of private financial institutions with green democratic publicly owned alternatives providing for green growth over the long term would also require increasing public and collective ownership over the most important economic assets pension funds must be reformed and democratised so their members can put pressure on private corporations to take climate change seriously the state should also start to act as an activist investor using the funds from quantitative easing to buy up corporate bonds and pressuring companies to reduce their em...
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