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description= 15 posts published by Lars Syll during March 2021;
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esenteras genomgående modeller med den grundläggande strukturen a1 a2 an teorem där en uppsättning odifferentierade antaganden används för att härleda ett teorem detta är dock för vagt och oprecist för att vara av något egentligt värde och ger inte heller någon vidare sanningsenlig bild av den gängse modellstrategin i mainstream nationalekonomi där differentieras det genomgående mellan uppsättningen av laglika hypoteser och auxiliära antaganden vilket ger den mer adekvata strukturen ca1 ca2 can aa1 aa2 aan teorem eller ca1 ca2 can aa1 aa2 aan teorem som klarare understryker aa s funktion som en uppsättning restriktioner på applicerbarheten av de deducerade teoremen i extremfallet får vi ca1 ca2 can teorem där teoremen är analytiska entiteter med universell och fullständigt obegränsad applicerbarhet eller så får vi aa1 aa2 aan teorem där teoremen förvandlats till icke testbara tautologiska tankeexperiment utan några andra empiriska ambitioner än att berätta en koherent fiktiv som om historia om man inte klart skiljer på ca och aa går det inte att göra denna helt avgörande tolkningsmässiga distinktion vilket öppnar upp för allehanda försök att rädda eller immunicera modeller från i princip all kritik genom att otillbörligt glida mellan att tolka modellerna som empiriskt tomma deduktiv axiomatiska analytiska system respektive som modeller med explicita empiriska aspirationer i vanliga fall uppfattas kanske flexibilitet som något positivt men i en metodologisk kontext är det snarast ett tecken på problem modeller som är förenliga med allting eller kommer med ospecificerade applikationsdomäner är värdelösa ur vetenskaplig synpunkt sett nationalekonomin till skillnad från logik och matematik borde vara en empirisk vetenskap och empiriska test av axiom borde vara självklart relevant för en sådan disciplin för även om mainstreamekonomen själv implicit eller explicit hävdar att hennes axiom är universellt accepterade som sanna och utan behov av bevis så utgör detta självklart inte i sig ett skäl för andra att bara rakt av acceptera dem när mainstreamekonomers deduktivistiska tänk kommer till användning resulterar detta som regel i konstruerande av som om modeller baserade på någon form av idealiseringslogik och en uppsättning axiomatiska antaganden från vilka konsistenta och precisa inferenser kan göras det vackra i detta är så klart att om de axiomatiska premisserna är sanna så följer slutsatserna med nödvändighet men även om proceduren med framgång används inom matematik och matematisk logiskt härledda axiomatisk deduktiva system så är den en dålig guide för att förstå och förklara system i den verkliga världen de flesta teoretiska modeller som mainstreamekonomer arbetar med är abstrakta och orealistiska konstruktioner med vars hjälp man konstruerar icke testbara hypoteser hur detta ska kunna säga oss något relevant och intressant om den värld vi lever i är svårt att se konfronterade med de massiva empiriska misslyckanden dessa modeller och teorier gett upphov till retirerar många mainstreamekonomer och väljer att presentera sina modeller och teorier som enbart ett slags tankeexperiment utan egentliga aspirationer att säga oss något om den verkliga världen istället för att slå en bro mellan modell och verklighet ger man helt enkelt bara upp denna typ av vetenskaplig defeatism är dock helt oacceptabel det kan aldrig vara nog att bevisa eller deducera saker i en modellvärld om teorier inte direkt eller indirekt säger oss något om den värld vi lever i varför ska vi då ödsla tid på dem share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky bayesianism a wrong headed pseudoscience 24 mar 2021 at 15 00 posted in theory of science methodology comments off on bayesianism a wrong headed pseudoscience the occurrence of unknown prior probabilities that must be stipulated arbitrarily does not worry the bayesian anymore than god s inscrutable designs worry the theologian thus lindley 1976 one of the leaders of the bayesian school holds that this difficulty has been grossly exaggerated and he adds i am often asked if the bayesian method gives the right answer or more particularly how do you know if you have got the right prior probability my reply is that i don t know what is meant by right in this context the bayesian theory is about coherence not about right or wrong thus the bayesian along with the philosopher who only cares about the cogency of arguments fits in with the reasoning madman one should not confuse the objective probabilities of random events with mere intuitive likelihoods of such events or the plausibility or verisimilitude of the corresponding hypotheses in the light of background knowledge as peirce 1935 p 363 put it this confusion is a fertile source of waste of time and energy a clear case of such waste is the current proliferation of rational choice theories in the social sciences to model processes that are far from random from marriage to crime to business transactions to political struggles mario bunge share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky on the poverty of deductivism 23 mar 2021 at 09 34 posted in theory of science methodology 1 comment in mainstream macroeconomics there has for long been an insistence on formalistic mathematical modelling and to some economic methodologists e g lawson 2015 syll 2016 this has forced economists to give up on realism and substitute axiomatics for real world relevance according to the critique the deductivist orientation has been the main reason behind the difficulty that mainstream economics has had in terms of understanding explaining and predicting what takes place in modern economies but it has also given mainstream economics much of its discursive power at least as long as no one starts asking tough questions on the veracity of and justification for the assumptions on which the deductivist foundation is erected the kind of formal analytical and axiomatic deductive mathematical modelling that makes up the core of mainstream economics is hard to make compatible with a real world ontology it is also the reason why so many critics find mainstream economic analysis patently and utterly unrealistic and irrelevant although there has been a clearly discernible increase and focus on empirical economics in recent decades the results in these research fields have not fundamentally challenged the main deductivist direction of mainstream economics they are still mainly framed and interpreted within the core axiomatic assumptions of individualism instrumentalism and equilibrium that make up even the new mainstream economics although perhaps a sign of an increasing but highly path dependent theoretical pluralism mainstream economics is still from a methodological point of view mainly a deductive project erected on a formalist foundation if macroeconomic theories and models are to confront reality there are obvious limits to what can be said rigorously in economics for although it is generally a good aspiration to search for scientific claims that are both rigorous and precise the chosen level of precision and rigour must be relative to the subject matter studied an economics that is relevant to the world in which we live can never achieve the same degree of rigour and precision as in logic mathematics or the natural sciences an example of a logically valid deductive inference whenever logic is used here it refers to deductive analytical logic may look like this premise 1 all chicago economists believe in the rational expectations hypothesis reh premise 2 bob is a chicago economist conclusion bob believes in reh in a hypothetico deductive reasoning hypothetico deductive confirmation in this case we would use the conclusion to test the law like hypothesis in premise 1 according to the hypothetico deductive model a hypothesis is confirmed by evidence if the evidence is deducible from the hypothesis if bob does not believe in reh we have gained some warranted reason for non acceptance of the hypothesis an obvious shortcoming here being that further information beyond that given in the explicit premises might have given another conclusion the hypothetico deductive method in case we treat the hypothesis as absolutely sure true we should rather talk of an axiomatic deductive method basically means that we posit a hypothesis infer empirically testable propositions consequences from it test the propositions through observation or experiment depending on the testing results either find the hypothesis corroborated or falsified however in science we regularly use a kind of practical argumentation where there is little room for applying the restricted logical formal transformations view of validity and inference most people would probably accept the following argument as a valid reasoning even though from a strictly logical point of view it is non valid premise 1 bob is a chicago economist premise 2 the recorded proportion of keynesian chicago economists is zero conclusion so certainly bob is not a keynesian economist in science contrary to what you find in most logic textbooks only few argumentations are settled by showing that all xs are ys in scientific practice we instead present other than analytical explicit warrants and backings data experience evidence theories models for our inferences as long as we can show that our deductions or inferences are justifiable and have well backed warrants other scientists will listen to us that our scientific deductions or inferences are logical non entailments simply is not a problem to think otherwise is committing the fallacy of misapplying formal analytical logic categories to areas where they are irrelevant or simply beside the point scientific arguments are not analytical arguments where validity is solely a question of formal properties scientific arguments are substantial arguments whether bob is a keynesian or not is not something we can decide on formal properties of statements propositions we have to check out what he has actually been writing and saying to see if the hypothesis that he is a keynesian is true or not in a deductive nomological explanation also known as a covering law explanation we would try to explain why bob believes in reh with the help of the two premises in this case actually giving an explanation with only little explanatory value these kinds of explanations both in their deterministic and statistic probabilistic versions rely heavily on deductive entailment from premises that are assumed to be true but they have precious little to say on where these assumed to be true premises come from the deductive logic of confirmation and explanation may work well given that they are used in deterministic closed models in mathematics the deductive axiomatic method has worked just fine but science is not mathematics conflating those two domains of knowledge has been one of the most fundamental mistakes made in the science of economics applying the deductive axiomatic method to real world systems immediately proves it to be excessively narrow and irrelevant both the confirmatory and explanatory ilk of hypothetico deductive reasoning fail since there is no way you can relevantly analyse confirmation or explanation as a purely logical relation between hypothesis and evidence or between law like rules and explananda in science we argue and try to substantiate our beliefs and hypotheses with reliable evidence propositional and predicate deductive logic on the other hand is not about reliability but the validity of the conclusions given that the premises are true deduction and the inferences that go with it is an example of explicative reasoning where the conclusions we make are already included in the premises deductive inferences are purely analytical and it is this truth preserving nature of deduction that makes it different from all other kinds of reasoning but it is also its limitation since truth in the deductive context does not refer to a real world ontology only relating propositions as true or false within a formal logic system and as an argument scheme deduction is totally non ampliative the output of the analysis is nothing else than the input just to give an economics example consider the following rather typical but also uninformative and tautological deductive inference premise 1 the firm seeks to maximise its profits premise 2 the firm maximises its profits when marginal cost equals marginal income conclusion the firm will operate its business at the equilibrium where marginal cost equals marginal income this is as empty as deductive nomological explanations of singular facts building on simple generalizations premise 1 all humans are less than 20 feet tall premise 2 bob is a human conclusion bob is less than 20 feet tall although a logically valid inference this is not much of an explanation since we would still probably want to know why all humans are less than 20 feet tall deductive nomological explanations also often suffer from a kind of emptiness that emanates from a lack of real causal connection between premises and conclusions premise 1 all humans that take birth control pills do not get pregnant premise 2 bob took birth control pills conclusion bob did not get pregnant most people would probably not consider this much of a real explanation learning new things about reality demands something else than a reasoning where the knowledge is already embedded in the premises these other kinds of reasoning induction and abduction may give good but not conclusive reasons that is the price we have to pay if we want to have something substantial and interesting to say about the real world references lawson tony 2015 essays on the nature and state of modern economics routledge syll lars 2016 on the use and misuse of theories and models in economics wea books 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