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nsurance treaty 1887 1890 franco russian alliance 1894 willy nicky correspondence 1894 1914 triple intervention 1895 anglo german naval arms race 1898 1912 fashoda incident 1898 hague conventions 1899 1907 eight nation alliance 1900 1901 anglo japanese alliance 1902 overthrow of the obrenović dynasty 1903 alfred redl affairs 1903 1913 berlin baghdad railway 1903 1915 dogger bank incident 1904 russo japanese war 1904 1905 entente cordiale 1904 revolutions of 1905 1911 1905 persian constitutional revolution 1905 1911 first moroccan crisis 1905 1906 pig war 1906 1908 anglo russian convention 1907 japan russia secret agreements 1907 1916 young turk revolution 1908 bosnian crisis 1908 1909 second moroccan crisis 1911 italo turkish war 1911 1912 balkan wars 1912 1913 assassination of franz ferdinand 1914 july crisis 1914 v t e identifying the causes of world war i remains a debated issue world war i began in the balkans on 28 july 1914 and hostilities ended on 11 november 1918 leaving 17 million dead and 25 million wounded moreover the russian civil war can in many ways be considered a continuation of world war i as can various other conflicts in the direct aftermath of 1918 scholars looking at the long term seek to explain why two rival sets of powers the german empire austria hungary and the ottoman empire against the russian empire france and the british empire came into conflict by the start of 1914 they look at such factors as political territorial and economic competition militarism a complex web of alliances and alignments imperialism the growth of nationalism and the power vacuum created by the decline of the ottoman empire other important long term or structural factors that are often studied include unresolved territorial disputes the perceived breakdown of the european balance of power 1 2 convoluted and fragmented governance arms races and security dilemmas 3 4 a cult of the offensive 1 5 4 and military planning 6 scholars seeking short term analysis focus on the summer of 1914 and ask whether the conflict could have been stopped or instead whether deeper causes made it inevitable among the immediate causes were the decisions made by statesmen and generals during the july crisis which was triggered by the assassination of archduke franz ferdinand of austria by the bosnian serb nationalist gavrilo princip who had been supported by a nationalist organization in serbia 7 the crisis escalated as the conflict between austria hungary and serbia was joined by their allies russia germany france and ultimately belgium and the united kingdom other factors that came into play during the diplomatic crisis leading up to the war included misperceptions of intent such as the german belief that the uk would remain neutral the fatalistic belief that war was inevitable and the speed with which the crisis escalated partly due to delays and misunderstandings in diplomatic communications the crisis followed a series of diplomatic clashes among the great powers italy france germany britain austria hungary and russia over european and colonial issues in the decades before 1914 that had left tensions high the cause of these public clashes can be traced to changes in the balance of power in europe that had been taking place since 1867 8 consensus on the origins of the war remains elusive since historians disagree on key factors and place differing emphasis on a variety of factors that is compounded by historical arguments changing over time particularly as classified historical archives become available and as perspectives and ideologies of historians have changed the deepest division among historians is between those who see germany and austria hungary as having driven events and those who focus on power dynamics among a wider set of actors and circumstances secondary fault lines exist between those who believe that germany deliberately planned a european war those who believe that the war was largely unplanned but was still caused principally by germany and austria hungary taking risks and those who believe that some or all of the other powers russia france serbia the uk played a more significant role in causing the war than has been traditionally suggested immediate causes edit assassination of archduke franz ferdinand by serbian nationalists 28 june 1914 edit main article assassination of archduke franz ferdinand grave implications of the assassination were immediately recognized as in this 29 june article with subtitles war sequel and war may result and stating the assassination was engineered by persons having a more mature organizing ability than that of the youthful assassins 9 on 28 june 1914 archduke franz ferdinand the heir presumptive to the austro hungarian throne and his wife sophie duchess of hohenberg were shot dead after a wrong turn 10 in sarajevo by gavrilo princip one of a group of six assassins five serbs and one bosniak co ordinated by danilo ilić a bosnian serb and a member of the black hand secret society 11 the assassination was significant because it was perceived by austria hungary as an existential challenge and so was viewed as providing a casus belli with serbia emperor franz josef was eighty four and so the assassination of his heir so soon before he was likely to hand over the crown was seen as a direct challenge to the empire many ministers in austria especially berchtold argued that the act must be avenged 12 july crisis edit the following is an excerpt from july crisis edit following the assassination austria hungary sought to inflict a military blow on serbia to demonstrate its own strength and to dampen serbian support for yugoslav nationalism viewing it as a threat to the unity of its multi national empire however vienna wary of the reaction of russia a major supporter of serbia sought a guarantee from its ally germany that berlin would support austria in any conflict germany guaranteed its support through what came to be known as the blank cheque a but urged austria hungary to attack quickly to localise the war and avoid drawing in russia however austro hungarian leaders would deliberate into mid july before deciding to give serbia a harsh ultimatum which serbia was certain to reject and would not attack without a full mobilisation of the army in the meantime france met with russia reaffirmed their alliance and agreed they would support serbia against austria hungary in the event of a war polarization of europe 1887 1914 edit in august 1914 the independent magazine described the assassination of franz ferdinand and his wife in june as a deplorable but relatively insignificant reason for which 14 the financial system of the world is in chaos that international commerce is suspended that industries are everywhere demoralized and families ruined and that millions of men in europe have taken up arms with the intent to slaughter each other it may be doubted whether the archduke is worth all this carnage the magazine added it discussed and dismissed ethnicity race religion and national interests as motivations for war the independent concluded that such is the ridiculous and tragical situation resulting from the survival of the antiquated superstition of the balance of power that is the theory that the prosperity of one nation was an injury to others 14 most of the people concerned in the present conflict have neither racial antagonism nor economic interests as an excuse for enmity they are no more enemies than the reds and the blues into which an army corps is divided for practice maneuvers but now the guns are loaded and those who bear them have nothing to say about whom they shall shoot the only unexpected thing about the present european war is the date of it the magazine added later that month 15 no war in history has been so long anticipated so carefully prepared for and so thoroughly discussed not only in the privy councils but in the press of all nations every european soldier knew where his uniform and rifle were stored he also thought he knew as well where he was to fight with whom he was to fight and when to understand the long term origins of the war in 1914 it is essential to understand how the powers formed into two competing sets that shared common aims and enemies both sets became by august 1914 germany and austria hungary on one side and russia france and britain on the other side citation needed german realignment to austria hungary and russian realignment to france 1887 1892 edit main articles dual alliance 1879 and franco russian alliance 1 2 3 4 map of bismarck s alliances 1 dual alliance 1879 2 league of the three emperors 1881 3 triple alliance 1882 4 reinsurance treaty 1887 in 1887 german and russian alignment was secured by means of a secret reinsurance treaty arranged by otto von bismarck however in 1890 bismarck fell from power and the treaty was allowed to lapse in favor of the dual alliance 1879 between germany and austria hungary signed in response to rising russian influence in the balkans after its victory over the declining ottoman empire in the russo turkish war of 1877 78 that development was attributed to count leo von caprivi the prussian general who replaced bismarck as chancellor it is claimed that caprivi recognized a personal inability to manage the european system as his predecessor had and so was counseled by contemporary figures such as friedrich von holstein to follow a more logical approach as opposed to bismarck s complex and even duplicitous strategy 16 thus the treaty with austria hungary was concluded despite the russian willingness to amend the reinsurance treaty and to sacrifice a provision referred to as the very secret additions 16 that concerned the turkish straits 17 caprivi s decision was also driven by the belief that the reinsurance treaty was no longer needed to ensure russian neutrality if france attacked germany and the treaty would even preclude an offensive against france 18 lacking the capacity for bismarck s strategic ambiguity caprivi pursued a policy that was oriented towards getting russia to accept berlin s promises on good faith and to encourage st petersburg to engage in a direct understanding with vienna without a written accord 18 by 1882 the dual alliance was expanded to include italy 19 in response russia secured in the same year the franco russian alliance a strong military relationship that was to last until 1917 that move was prompted by russia s need for an ally since it was experiencing a major famine and a rise in antigovernment revolutionary activities 18 the alliance was gradually built throughout the years from when bismarck refused the sale of russian bonds in berlin which drove russia to the paris capital market 20 that began the expansion of russian and french financial ties which eventually helped elevate the franco russian entente to the diplomatic and military arenas citation needed caprivi s strategy appeared to work when during the outbreak of the bosnian crisis of 1908 germany successfully demanded that russia step back and demobilize 21 when germany asked russia the same thing later russia refused which finally helped precipitate the war citation needed french distrust of germany edit main article french entry into world war i american cartoon showing territorial dispute between france and germany over alsace lorraine 1898 some of the distant origins of world war i can be seen in the results and consequences of the franco prussian war in 1870 and 1871 and the concurrent unification of germany germany had won decisively and established a powerful empire but france fell into chaos and experienced a years long decline in its military power a legacy of animosity grew between france and germany after the german annexation of alsace lorraine the annexation caused widespread resentment in france giving rise to the desire for revenge that was known as revanchism french sentiment was based on a desire to avenge military and territorial losses and the displacement of france as the pre eminent continental military power 22 bismarck was wary of the french desire for revenge and achieved peace by isolating france and by balancing the ambitions of austria hungary and russia in the balkans during his later years he tried to placate the french by encouraging their overseas expansion however anti german sentiment remained 23 france eventually recovered from its defeat paid its war indemnity and rebuilt its military strength however france was smaller than germany in terms of population and industry and therefore many french felt insecure next to a more powerful neighbor 24 by the 1890s the desire for revenge over alsace lorraine was no longer a major factor for the leaders of france but remained a force in public opinion 25 jules cambon the french ambassador to berlin 1907 1914 worked hard to secure a détente but the french government realized that berlin was trying to weaken the triple entente and at the best was not sincere in seeking peace the french consensus was that war was inevitable 26 british alignment towards france and russia 1898 1907 the triple entente edit main articles entente cordiale anglo russian convention and triple entente after bismarck s removal in 1890 french efforts to isolate germany became successful with the formation of the informal triple entente germany began to feel encircled 27 french foreign minister théophile delcassé went to great pains to woo russia and britain key markers were the 1894 franco russian alliance the 1904 entente cordiale with britain and the 1907 anglo russian convention which led to the triple entente france s informal alignment with britain and its formal alliance with russia against germany and austria eventually led russia and britain to enter world war i as france s allies 28 29 britain abandoned its policy of splendid isolation in the 1900s after it had been isolated during the second boer war britain concluded agreements limited to colonial affairs with its two major colonial rivals the entente cordiale with france in 1904 and the anglo russian entente in 1907 some historians see britain s alignment as principally a reaction to an assertive german foreign policy and the buildup of its navy from 1898 that led to the anglo german naval arms race 30 31 other scholars most notably niall ferguson argue that britain chose france and russia over germany because germany was too weak an ally to provide an effective counterbalance to the other powers and could not provide britain with the imperial security that was achieved by the entente agreements 32 in the words of the british diplomat arthur nicolson it was far more disadvantageous to us to have an unfriendly france and russia than an unfriendly germany 33 ferguson argues that the british government rejected german alliance overtures not because germany began to pose a threat to britain but on the contrary because they realized she did not pose a threat 34 the impact of the triple entente was therefore twofold by impro...
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