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ge or add anything in the rgdp growth numbers shown by the blue line the blue line is exactly the same on graph 5 as it is on 4 but when i figured the red line on 5 i omitted the blue values from before 2010 and the red line changed as a result the start and end values for the hp line on graph 5 are 2 04 for 2010 q1 and 2 51 for 2019 q4 say 2 0 and 2 5 the trend shows a gradual increase in the rgdp growth rate so we should figure a trend rate of 2 5 for the early months of 2020 when our response to the pandemic started pushing the unemployment rate up and pulling economic growth down we had a 1 rise in unemployment between february and march of this year if the okun s law parameter is close to 2 then that one month s change in unemployment is enough that we can expect real gdp growth to fall by two percentage points if recent trend growth is 2 5 as on graph 5 and the growth rate falls by two percentage points we can expect economic growth to slow to around 0 5 as a result of march unemployment or i should say it this way we can expect economic growth to vary around the 0 5 level rather than around the 2 5 level as a result of the march unemployment but that is only true if the okun s law parameter still has a value close to 2 i don t think it does i think the parameter value is much lower now over the past several years unemployment fell several percentage points but sluggish gdp growth suggests that the parameter value is low i ll be following up in a day or so with an estimate of what the parameter value may now be and how it may impact economic growth links excel file for graphs 1 2 3 excel file for graphs 4 5 note these files contain vba macros at april 06 2020 2 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest sunday april 5 2020 the accounting view of money money as equity for an accounting view of money by biagio bossone and massimo costa at economonitor feb 12 2018 strikes me as a significant statement in fact even though the law says that money is debt a correct application of the general principles of accounting does raise deep doubts about such a conception of money debt typically involves an obligation between lender and borrower as contracting parties we wonder which obligation may fall upon the state from the rights entertained by the holders of coins or which obligation may fall upon the central bank from the rights entertained by the holders of banknotes or by the banks holding reserves we specifically refer to these three species of money because they are all legal tender that is in force of a legal power they absolve their issuers of any responsibility to convert them into other forms of value and from the conclusion the foregoing discussion offers a broad outline of a new approach that we refer to as the accounting view of legal tender money the proposed new approach calls for understanding money by correctly applying to it the principles of general accounting we think it will be important to further deepen the study of the implications of the new approach at april 05 2020 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest thursday april 2 2020 how might that affect the unemployment rate the graph from monitoring real activity in real time the weekly economic index the sudden drop at the recent end of the graph is mostly the result of new initial unemployment claims in response to the pandemic from the article at liberty street economics the effects of the pandemic become visible in the week ending march 21 this week saw an unprecedented 3 28 million ui claims a sharp decline in consumer confidence and fuel sales and a more modest decline in steel production but also a countervailing surge in retail sales as consumers took to stores to stock up in spite of this positive signal from retail sales and the relatively mild declines in some other series the ui release drove the wei to a level not seen since the 2008 financial crisis their graph goes back just far enough in time to show that the decline of 2008 09 was a relatively slow one as compared to the drop of the week ending march 21st even one week before 21 march the graph shows no indication that such a drop was coming yes we might have known but even in closeup the initial claims data offer only the slightest hint initial claims for the week ending 21 march what struck me about this is that there is not something wrong with the economy back in 08 when there was clearly something wrong with the economy it took time for the crisis to develop i ve seen a few graphs that show the peak as far back as 2005 or 2004 here initial unemployment claims were decreasing thru the seventh of march they show what would ordinarily be a substantial but still ordinary increase on the 14th and then the increase of over three million the following week there was something wrong with the economy 15 years back which led to the financial crisis of 2008 but given the new normal where 2 growth is called good there was nothing wrong with our economy in mid march i think that s good i think it means we should be able to have a rapid recovery once the pandemic is behind us because there s nothing wrong with the economy economic declines are always more rapid than recoveries of course because recoveries require rebuilding declines don t all we have to do is stop our economy could not possibly recover in a week but it should be able to recover back to that new normal much more quickly than it did after the financial crisis if all goes well what could go wrong we could default on our debts enough to start a chain reaction which creates another financial crisis i m sure there are other things that could go wrong but my mind always goes back to debt if our debt was low not the federal debt our debt the chance of a chain reaction would be less the federal debt back at the end of world war two was more than gdp but debt for the rest of us was only about half the size of gdp our debt today is more than twice the size of federal and two and a half times the size of gdp federal debt blue and everyone else s debt red as percent of gdp if our debt went from half of gdp to two and a half of gdp the risk of a chain reaction debt implosion became what five times worse the initial claims for 21 march indicates that 3 283 000 people filed for unemployment benefits that week how might that affect the unemployment rate sometime back i figured out how the unemployment rate relates to the number of people unemployed multiply the unemployment rate by the size of the civilian labor force and divide by 100 to get rid of the percent thing to get the number of people who are unemployed you could go the other way and divide the number unemployed by the civilian labor force then multiply by 100 to get the unemployment rate to preserve my sanity i will assume no change in the size of the civilian labor force i will also assume no one was hired so that the initial claims number is the net change in the number of people who are working that s not perfect but i think it must be ballpark the count of people who were unemployed in february was 5787 thousand or 5 787 000 the civilian labor force in february was 164 546 thousand or 164 546 000 5787 divided by 164 546 equals 0 035 so 3 5 this matches the unemployment rate given in the fred data now take the count of people who were unemployed as of february and add the 3 283 000 who lost their jobs during the week ending 21 march 5 787 000 3 283 000 9 070 000 divide 9070 by 164 546 to get the new estimated unemployment rate 0 055 or 5 5 based on that one week s data alone the unemployment rate could rise from 3 5 to 5 5 that s an increase of two percentage points divide 2 0 by the initial claims number of 21 march and multiply by a million to see how much the unemployment rate changes for every additional million people unemployed a 0 6 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate for every million people to preserve my sanity i assumed some things that won t turn out to be true to make up for that take the 0 6 per million and call it half a percent for every million people added to the unemployment rolls unemployment will go up an additional half a percent maybe more three million additional unemployed adds 1 5 or more to the february rate of 3 5 due to some quirk in the timing of data collection and reporting or so i hear the 3 283 000 who lost their jobs will not be reflected in the unemployment rate number for march i dunno but 3 5 unemployment plus 1 5 more unemployment comes to 5 unemployment and that s a change that happened in one week the last time we had a 5 unemployment rate was september 2016 economic declines are always more rapid than recoveries well it s no longer march after i got this thing written i checked fred s initial claims data and sure enough the number is out for 28 march 6 648 000 that s on top of the three million who lost their jobs last week six or seven million people at a half percent higher unemployment rate per million comes to an increase of 3 or 3 5 and that s on top of the 5 rate after the week of 21 march so say an unemployment rate of 8 or 9 percent after the week of 28 march how high it goes after that i can t say initial claims for the week ending 28 march note the slight increase in the number for week ending 21 march usually i prefer line graphs but here a line graph made it look like we had a three million increase in unemployment last week and another three million this week that s not it three million last week and another six million this week closer to seven these increases occurred when they did not directly because of the pandemic but directly because of the response to the pandemic the closing of businesses and all unemployment will not keep rising the way the number of covid 19 cases keeps rising i can t guess when unemployment will stop the insane increase but that will come first and then the pandemic will show signs of retreat let s call it soon at april 02 2020 1 comment email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest the weekly economic index food for the data hungry daniel lewis karel mertens and jim stock monitoring real activity in real time the weekly economic index federal reserve bank of new york liberty street economics march 30 2020 https libertystreeteconomics newyorkfed org 2020 03 monitoring real activity in real time the weekly economic index html at april 02 2020 1 comment email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest newer posts older posts home subscribe to posts atom why economists must think in terms of the cycle of civilization i ve been hearing the phrase late capitalism for so long that i m forced to conclude that the very concept of late cap looks like vigor to me went to harbor freight the other day when i left there was so much traffic i had to fight my way out of the parking lot at one p m on let s see if this one gets me into trouble as i write this it is mid october in an even numbered year elections are weeks away yesterday i saw republican candidates heavily adver not the rate of interest but the cost of finance not inflation but the decline of growth it is surely true that the price level cannot rise without a corresponding increase in the quantity of money or velocity or use of credit the most important difference between cost push and demand pull inflation i m not a fan of diagrams in economics but sometimes this is a screen capture of slide 36 from a slideshare presentatio federal debt is the measure of economic troubles in the private sector not the cause of them the cause is excessive private sector debt private debt is too big and too costly it slows the economy it slows income growth it makes decent jobs scarce we lost our greatness to excessive private sector debt we can regain american greatness by reducing private debt if we do so before china has all the greatness note that we have many policies to encourage the use of credit and no policies to encourage repayment of debt selected fred data free ebooks forever fadedpage levy institute publications art s old vigor page click folder tab to view contents quick quotes on debt sbt hover for the quote click for the source steve keen sbe thomas palley sbe palley again same source sbe arthurian spontaneous sbe arthurian sbe id a j toynbee a study of history unabridged vol 1 page 1 abridgement vol 1 thru 10 id mostly old cost push stuff 1937 the general theory of employment 1958 the phillips curve paper 1959 charles schultze recent inflation in the united states 1960 richard lipsey on the phillips curve 1960 samuelson and solow problem of achieving and maintaining a stable price level 1962 arthur okun potential gdp its measurement and significance 1968 friedman s presidential address the role of monetary policy or alt link 1970 milton friedman the counter revolution in monetary theory 1974 f a hayek prize lecture the pretense of knowledge 1977 thomas m humphrey on cost push theories of inflation in the pre war monetary literature id papers by johannes a schwarzer sbt samuelson and solow on the phillips curve and the menu of choice a retrospective 2013 sbe growth as an objective of economic policy in the early 1960s the role of aggregate demand 2014 sbe price stability versus full employment the phillips curve dilemma reconsidered 2016 sbe retrospectives cost push and demand pull inflation milton friedman and the cruel dilemma 2018 sbe id papers by norikazu takami 1950s cost push sbt baffling inflation cost push inflation theories in the late 1950s united states 2014 sbe the baffling new inflation how cost push inflation theories influenced policy debate in the late 1950s united states 2015 sbe id archive org links sbt archive org home sbe note at archive org the upper right corner search is for all of archive org to search the open book click the search icon on the left side of the window and use quotes around search phrases sbe historical statistics thru 1970 part 1 arrighi g the long twentieth century dalio r economic principles how the economic machine works delong h a profile of mathematical logic r c k ensor england 1870 1914 finley m i the ancient economy friedman m free to choose friedman m money mischief kissinger h the meaning of history reflections on spengler toynbee and kant leuchtenburg w franklin d roosevelt and the new deal leuchtenburg w the perils of prosperity lot ferdinand the end of the ancient world and the beginnings of the middle ages montagu a toynbee and history critical essays and reviews mullineux a w business cycles and financial crises quigley the evolution of civilizations rostovtzeff the social and economic history of the roman empire terborgh george the new economics tooke thomas an inquiry into the currency principle toynbee aj a study of history volumes i vi abridged wanniski jude the way the world works sbe id timelines industrial capitalism sbe mercantile capitalism sbe 10000 year...
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