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description= 4 posts published by Reidar Visser during December 2006;
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iraq, and, for, the, gulf, analysis, archive, december, 2006, archives, categories, meta, my, latest, book, on, amazon, com, twitter, updates, subscribe, recent, posts, timetabled, conditional, surge, strategy, dealing, with, sadrists, study, group, regionalisation, not, balkanisation, federalism, from, below, in, some, historical, comparative, reflections,
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the (697), and (205), for (116), that (114), iraq (100), iraqi (85), with (75), this (65), from (59), would (58), #federalism (45), but (42), was (39), their (38), iqlim (37), some (32), are (32), 2006 (31), has (30), referendum (29), have (28), two (28), not (28), one (27), more (26), may (26), process (24), spain (24), which (24), new (24), regions (24), there (23), had (23), etherington (23), federal (22), regional (22), should (22), politicians (22), level (21), about (21), all (21), even (21), december (21), also (20), such (20), region (20), governorates (20), been (20), any (20), janub (20), united (20), shiite (19), could (19), constitution (18), local (18), political (18), government (18), states (18), surge (18), national (17), sadrists (17), law (16), autonomy (16), into (16), pre (16), governorate (16), were (16), policy (16), other (15), point (15), can (15), many (15), initiative (15), basra (15), poll (15), october (15), its (15), initiatives (15), what (15), they (15), sadrist (15), below (14), will (14), federalisation (14), wasat (14), might (14), issues (13), 2005 (13), today (13), june (13), time (13), 2008 (13), 2010 (13), 2013 (13), these (12), areas (12), current (12), scale (12), most (12), april (12), only (12), forces (12), washington (12), january (12), 2014 (12), 2007 (12), 2009 (12), 2011 (12), 2012 (12), like (11), constitutional (11), under (11), majority (11), than (11), middle (11), najaf (11), baghdad (11), between (11), september (11), kind (11), february (11), situation (11), november (11), august (11), report (10), without (10), administrative (10), politics (10), 2004 (10), state (10), spanish (10), well (10), rafidayn (10), case (10), perhaps (10), south (10), march (10), support (10), same (10), make (10), pro (10), wasit (10), general (10), security (10), reconciliation (10), war (10), control (9), small (9), through (9), whereas (9), far (9), how (9), very (9), those (9), international (9), particular (9), iraqis (9), turn (9), sciri (9), parliament (9), coalition (9), july (9), create (8), posted (8), historical (8), system (8), administration (8), within (8), after (8), 2003 (8), among (8), large (8), above (8), decentralisation (8), question (8), certain (8), project (8), see (8), reidar (8), visser (8), nationalism (8), problems (8), way (8), legal (8), map (8), popular (8), towards (8), several (8), long (8), important (8), group (8), military (8), over (8), isg (8), them (8), sadr (8), party (8), troop (8), account (7), now (7), comments (7), entities (7), out (7), structure (7), back (7), another (7), dhi (7), qar (7), least (7), entity (7), elite (7), second (7), bottom (7), become (7), much (7), transition (7), instead (7), uni (7), who (7), before (7), once (7), democracy (7), council (7), foreign (7), sunni (7), oil (7), bush (7), troops (7), american (7), book (7), own (7), cpa (7), kut (7), com (6), gulf (6), off (6), number (6), against (6), country (6), 000 (6), powers (6), outside (6), 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ghtly larger region of the south involving basra and dhi qar as well the people of dhi qar in turn may want to give a chance to the idea unifying all the shiite communities northwards to karbala except that the inhabitants of babel may want a referendum on a small scale middle euphrates region while those of wasit and karbala may not be enthusiastic about federalism at all and could fail to produce federal initiatives that would satisfy the minimum legal requirements perhaps the people of diyala and other areas with strong iraqi nationalist traditions might decide to take a pro active stance to the challenge of decentralisation by introducing a surprise nationalist federalist project a region of mesopotamia iqlim al rafidayn stretching all the way from basra to mosul and with the potential to put a stop to what could otherwise become an endless string of autonomy bids this is all theory and hypotheses but it is clear that a considerable mess as shown in table 1 can emerge at the poll level even before any referendum is held table 1 simulation of possible outcomes of pre referendum polls istibyans under the new iraqi law for implementing federalism governorate available alternatives see also note 11 winner of pre referendum poll or sole initiative launched basra iqlim al janub iqlim al wasat wa al janub iqlim al basra iqlim al rafidayn iqlim al basra maysan iqlim al janub iqlim al janub dhi qar iqlim al janub iqlim al wasat wa al janub iqlim al wasat wa al janub muthanna iqlim al wasat wa al janub iqlim al wasat wa al janub wasit iqlim al wasat wa al janub iqlim al rafidayn neither initiative reaches threshold qadisiyya iqlim al wasat wa al janub iqlim al furat al awsat iqlim al wasat wa al janub babel iqlim al wasat wa al janub iqlim al furat al awsat iqlim al furat al awsat najaf iqlim al wasat wa al janub iqlim al najaf iqlim al wasat wa al janub karbala iqlim al wasat wa al janub initiative fails to reach threshold diyala iqlim al rafidayn initiative fails to reach threshold salahaddin iqlim al rafidayn initiative fails to reach threshold anbar no initiative nineve iqlim al rafidayn iqlim al rafidayn kirkuk iqlim al rafidayn iqlim al rafidayn at least two very different scenarios can be inferred from this theoretical example one alternative would be for all the referendums to go ahead on the basis of their original formulas even as voters in najaf and muthanna would know perfectly well that some of the governorates listed in their preferred nine governorate scheme would be barred from joining their entity because in those governorates a different and mutually exclusive small scale regionalist vision had triumphed in the local pre referendum poll a possible result might be the further fragmentation of the large scale federalist project with majorities in relatively poor qadisiyya muthanna and dhi qar voting in favour but with najaf voters changing their minds and saving their vote for a uni governorate federal entity at some future stage the outcome would be a mix of uni governorate entities rump regions consisting of remnants of large scale projects that failed to acquire support in all of their targeted governorates and a rump iraq without devolution to the regional level map 2 left map 2 left rump iraq with remnants of partially successful regions right rump iraq with uni governorate and small scale regions formed on the basis of pre referendum elimination polls an alternative method would be to take more seriously the concerns of the voters there is little point in staging a referendum for a project if its infeasibility is implicitly acknowledged ahead of the vote as a result of the rise of incompatible schemes in one or more of the targeted governorates accordingly should a situation arise along the aforementioned lines with mutual incompatibility between the various proposed schemes it would make sense to ask voters to restate their preferences in light of the new realities in a second pre referendum poll to be workable this kind of elimination race would require coordination and indeed synchronisation between governorates in such a poll wealthy and autonomy minded governorates like najaf might elect to recast themselves as uni governorate regionalists thereby repeating the problem of exclusion on a smaller scale vis à vis poorer provinces like neighbouring babel qadisiyya and muthanna who might still wish to pursue a second amalgamation bid this time on a smaller scale as a middle euphrates region najaf s desire to go it alone would then perhaps impact on popular sentiment in the remaining euphrates governorates during a third pre referendum poll babel and qadisiyya might conceivably agree on a joint two governorate project leaving muthanna out in the cold the end result with this kind of procedure would be a combination of small scale regions uni governorate regions and a rump iraq of anti federalists and governorates excluded during the initial poll rounds map 2 right potential areas for legal clarifications or adjustments as of today iraqi lawmakers lean towards the second of the interpretations outlined above to be valid an autonomy referendum must correspond exactly to the territorial entity defined in the initiative regions of leftovers are unacceptable and must be built from scratch instead this means that the primary focus of future instability concerns failed regional initiatives on a larger scale it is very easy to launch an initiative but quite difficult to make it victorious in a single referendum this in turn makes the prospect of repeated initiatives and even pre referendum polls very real additionally the problem concerning partially successful regions outlined above with regard to the pre referendum poll stage may become equally relevant should a referendum on a successfully launched large scale initiative fail in the referendum in one or more of the affected governorates the spanish constitution explicitly gives recognition to such partial regions article 153 3 but it remains unclear whether a similar interpretation would be acceptable in iraq such regions could be purely accidental creations which no one had even thought about prior to the referendum and with the absence of a requirement for territorial contiguity in iraq they could in theory assume rather contorted shapes fortunately certain trends among leading iraqi politicians can go some way towards mitigating these problems much emphasis is attached to the 18 months moratorium on federalism as a period for educating public opinion about the federalism question importantly iraqi politicians have a far more sophisticated approach to the overall question of decentralisation than many western commentators iraqis tend to emphasise the asymmetrical multi layer characteristics of the iraqi constitution which mean that there is no absolute imperative for systematic federalisation and many governorates may well choose to retain their current administrative status in the future some leading iraqi politicians contend that a law on the governorates with provisions for wide ranging local autonomy will make federal regions an exceptional feature of the iraqi system perhaps limited to the kurdish areas and one or two small scale regions elsewhere additionally with a few exceptions the majority of pro federal iraqi politicians have so far stayed true to the bottom up principle by refraining from aggressively marketing any preferred regional vision during what is a critical period of transition helpful as such attitudes may be certain questions pertaining to the legal framework remain international political history has shown that federalism from below is a particularly challenging venture and iraq above all needs a decentralisation system that is watertight and capable of smoothly tackling the unforeseen in particular avoidance of a string of dead end federal initiatives and the concomitant potential for political instability would seem a natural goal at the same time it is desirable that the democratic spirit of the bottom up approach be preserved the very last thing iraqis want today is new dictatorships at a federal level two remedies could be relevant in this regard firstly the existing law on implementing federalism could be elaborated in areas where it currently leaves question marks secondly the committee charged with revising the iraqi constitution could undertake a more thorough rethink of the basic framework for the country s federalisation process whatever road is taken some key priority areas seem clear firstly it would be advantageous for the modalities of the pre referendum polls to be specified in greater detail especially the question of inter governorate synchronisation and how to deal with regional visions that become technically impossible after having failed at the poll level in one or more of the affected governorates but also some very basic questions need to be addressed at the poll stage like what level of participation if any should be required for this exercise and what kind of appeals procedures should be available secondly consideration might be given to the alternative of radically tightening up today s lax requirements for calling a referendum so as to avoid a multiplication of federal alternatives with limited popular support repeated initiatives and even pre referendum polls and ultimately voter exasperation and contempt for the entire process of federalisation 12 here it is worth bearing in mind that spain got into trouble even with relatively strict requirements for the initiation of autonomy projects in fact even if iraq should decide to imitate the spanish model for instance by requiring pre referendum consensus by a two thirds or three fourths majority at the lowest existing administrative level i e all municipalities plus those rural subdistricts or nahiya s without municipal institutions there would remain a considerable difference in the level of popular support behind the autonomy initiatives in the two countries by the early 1980s spain had a population of some 35 million distributed in around 8 000 municipalities i e on average 4 000 citizens behind every decision on an autonomy initiative by contrast the perhaps 25 million citizens of today s iraq have a local level layer of government limited to around 500 entities which yields a citizen entity ratio of approximately 1 to 50 000 clearly such an arrangement would have represented an improvement on today s proposed procedure and its roughly 1 400 000 citizens per governorate but it would still be far from spanish standards with regard to local level control of the federalisation process 13 a simple juxtaposition of the administrative maps of iraq and spain illustrates the salient differences in democratic density between the two cases of bottom up federalism 14 map 3 left spain s fine grained system of some 8 000 municipalities and the starting point for federalisation in the 1980s right iraq s provinces which form the suggested and comparatively crude framework for federalisation by way of popular initiatives the relevant population figures are 35 million for spain in the 1980s and 25 million for today s iraq finally it would be wise to think through the feasibility of any kind of further federalisation pending the completion and institutionalisation of the central government structure laid down in the iraqi constitution it has been suggested that at one point during the putsch in february 1981 the persona of king juan carlos was the single factor that saved spain from a relapse into authoritarianism under a republican system this kind of safety valve of traditional authority is not available and in the iraqi case the scope for conflicting interpretations of the relevant legal codes for the federalisation process is such that the role of the arbiter will exceed what is normally expected from an independent electoral commission hence it seems ill advised to enter this kind of legal grey zone area without at least a constitutional court that is up and running 15 the experiences of spain strongly suggest that candidates for bottom up federalism will need to prepare for the unexpected and for worst case scenarios if their ambitious ideas are to prosper notes 1 special thanks to safa al din al safi iraq s minister of state for national assembly affairs for valuable information concerning the newly adopted law on the implentation of federalism as well as to lukas oldenburg klaus jürgen nagel and tom harrington for helpful comments concerning the autonomy question in spain 2 see reidar visser building federal subunits by way of referenda special challenges for iraq 9 june 2006 http historiae org federalism asp for an interesting hybrid case of tentative federal re structuring from below but with robust arm twisting from above see the case of contemporary russia as discussed by helge blakkisrud in to merge or not to merge the debate on rationalizing the russian federal structure paper presented to the asn convention columbia university new york 23 25 march 2006 3 for problems of political stability related to this see reidar visser the draft law for the formation of regions a recipe for permanent instability in iraq 27 september 2006 http historiae org aqalim asp 4 to some extent this echoed reactions seen under the second republic 1931 1939 see luis moreno the federalization of spain london frank cass 2001 p 56 5 elite demarcation was instrumental in creating the region of madrid and determining the new borders of the two castiles effectively extremadura was also affected by elite level decisions as it had not seen municipality level initiatives prior to 1981 the early initiatives for regionalisation outside the traditionally autonomist areas catalonia the basque country galicia and arguably andalusia are often overlooked for some interesting examples see lukas oldenburg recht auf gleichheit vs recht auf differenz dezentralisierung und peripherer nationalismus am beispiel kataloniens thesis submitted to europa universität viadrina in frankfurt oder 2005 p 62 n 171 6 on the history of various regionalist attempts in iraq south of baghdad see reidar visser basra the failed gulf state separatism and nationalism in southern iraq berlin lit verlag 2005 7 even though mosul technically formed a separate entity in certain periods its politics was on the whole tightly linked to baghdad see for instance stephen longrigg four centuries of modern iraq oxford 1925 pp 209 210 8 one might perhaps argue that there are certain parallels albeit tenuous ones between today s project of a grand all shiite entity and the ephemeral hilla based mazyadid tribal shiite emirate of the eleventh and early twelfth centuries the latter has a rather marginal place in iraqi historiography and so far has not been evoked by today s proponents of a single shiite federal unit 9 the subsequent discussion is based on the original draft plus the descriptions of new amendments given in al ittihad 1...
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