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description= 15 posts published by Lars Syll during September 2020;
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uld achieve useful macroeconomic and social policy objectives the thumbnail sketch we have provided is intended to provoke others to further consider how tax reforms can serve a dual macroeconomic and social policy purpose for example taxing capital gains at the same rates as in the 1980s and similar moves to restore corporation tax to pre 2010 levels would discourage the diversion of income into company structures which undermines both income tax and potentially the cancellation or withdrawal function of the tax system as a whole generous capital gains tax allowances on buy to let properties that potentially fuel asset inflation and reduce access to affordable homes could be substantially reduced the proceeds from reduced allowances could then be invested in social housing the fact that national insurance charges in the uk apply only to income from work but not investment income also make it a potential target for reform based on the application of similar mmt logics at present those who work for a living pay considerably more tax on identical levels of income than those who receive income as a return on investments of a variety of forms when the saving process is not required to drive investment the socially regressive nature of such policies becomes much clearer andrew baker richard murphy share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky evidence based policies 23 sep 2020 at 17 09 posted in economics comments off on evidence based policies evidence based theories and policies are highly valued nowadays randomization is supposed to control for bias from unknown confounders the received opinion is that evidence based on randomized experiments therefore is the best more and more economists have also lately come to advocate randomization as the principal method for ensuring being able to make valid causal inferences yours truly would however rather argue that randomization just as econometrics promises more than it can deliver basically because it requires assumptions that in practice are not possible to maintain just as econometrics randomization is basically a deductive method given the assumptions such as manipulability transitivity separability additivity linearity etc these methods deliver deductive inferences the problem of course is that we will never completely know when the assumptions are right and although randomization may contribute to controlling for confounding it does not guarantee it since genuine randomness presupposes infinite experimentation and we know all real experimentation is finite and even if randomization may help to establish average causal effects it says nothing of individual effects unless homogeneity is added to the list of assumptions real target systems are seldom epistemically isomorphic to our axiomatic deductive models systems and even if they were we still have to argue for the external validity of the conclusions reached from within these epistemically convenient models systems causal evidence generated by randomization procedures may be valid in closed models but what we usually are interested in is causal evidence in the real target system we happen to live in the point of making a randomized experiment is often said to be that it ensures that any correlation between a supposed cause and effect indicates a causal relation this is believed to hold since randomization allegedly ensures that a supposed causal variable does not correlate with other variables that may influence the effect the problem with that simplistic view on randomization is that the claims made are both exaggerated and false even if you manage to do the assignment to treatment and control groups ideally random the sample selection certainly is except in extremely rare cases not random even if we make a proper randomized assignment if we apply the results to a biased sample there is always the risk that the experimental findings will not apply what works there does not work here randomization hence does not guarantee or ensure making the right causal claim although randomization may help us rule out certain possible causal claims randomization per se does not guarantee anything even if both sampling and assignment are made in an ideal random way performing standard randomized experiments only give you averages the problem here is that although we may get an estimate of the true average causal effect this may mask important heterogeneous effects of a causal nature although we get the right answer of the average causal effect being 0 those who are treated may have causal effects equal to 100 and those not treated may have causal effects equal to 100 contemplating being treated or not most people would probably be interested in knowing about this underlying heterogeneity and would not consider the average effect particularly enlightening there is almost always a trade off between bias and precision in real world settings a little bias often does not overtrump greater precision and most importantly in case we have a population with sizeable heterogeneity the average treatment effect of the sample may differ substantially from the average treatment effect in the population if so the value of any extrapolating inferences made from trial samples to other populations is highly questionable since most real world experiments and trials build on performing one single randomization what would happen if you kept on randomizing forever does not help you to ensure or guarantee that you do not make false causal conclusions in the one particular randomized experiment you actually do perform it is indeed difficult to see why thinking about what you know you will never do would make you happy about what you actually do randomization is not a panacea it is not the best method for all questions and circumstances proponents of randomization make claims about its ability to deliver causal knowledge that is simply wrong there are good reasons to be skeptical of the now popular and ill informed view that randomization is the only valid and best method on the market it is not share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky argent sale 22 sep 2020 at 18 46 posted in economics comments off on argent sale stratégiques et vitales pour l économie les banques sont devenues au fil des crises financières l un des secteurs les plus régulés au monde pourtant malgré les règles et les contrôles le secteur bancaire mondial reste poreux au blanchiment d argent et peine à lutter contre la circulation de l argent sale selon les fincen files la nouvelle enquête conduite par le consortium international des journalistes d investigation icij avec le site d information américain buzzfeed news et 108 médias internationaux dont le monde a l heure de la mondialisation financière le constat est sans appel malgré le récent durcissement des règles antiblanchiment les banques demeurent éminemment faillibles tandis que la régulation du secteur bancaire mondial reste l un des grands enjeux des décennies à venir les fincen files montrent le rôle central des grandes banques systémiques dans la circulation des flux d argent sale liés à la fraude la corruption le crime organisé et le terrorisme les rapports de la cellule de renseignement financier américaine dévoilent ainsi qu au moins cinq grandes banques jpmorgan hsbc standard chartered bank deutsche bank et la bank of new york mellon ont échoué à endiguer certains transferts illicites de capitaux parfois même après avoir été sanctionnées et s être engagées auprès de la justice à renforcer leurs contrôles anne michel maxime vaudano jérémie baruc h share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky how to cope with inflation 22 sep 2020 at 10 19 posted in economics 5 comments less well worked out is a technique of dealing with the other responsibility of the creator of money the responsibility for maintaining its value the key points here are not in the direct supply of money or even in the regulation of the level of spending the key points are in the determination of wage rates and in the determination of rates of markup of selling prices over costs higher wages relatively to prices are necessary for long run prosperity but raising wages will do no good because they will only lead to higher prices and inflation the dilemma can be resolved only by the government going to work on both money wage determination and on markup rates both are problems of monopoly and as such are inevitably destructive of a free economy markup rates must be reduced by antimonopoly measures the most important help to the government in this will be the policy of maintaining full employment which will make it profitable for business to work with smaller markups abba lerner most proponents of mmt argue that the aggregate demand impact of interest rate changes is unclear their effect depends on intricate and complex relations especially distributional and institutions which makes it realiter impossible to always be able to tell which way they work public budget deficits and higher interest rates may cause inflation to go up or go down and if so the neoliberal dream of the efficacy of central bank inflation targeting is nothing but a fantasy share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky expected utility theory an ex parrot 20 sep 2020 at 16 16 posted in economics comments off on expected utility theory an ex parrot if a friend of yours offered you a gamble on the toss of a coin where you could lose 100 or win 200 would you accept it many of us probably wouldn t but if you were offered to make one hundred such bets you would probably be willing to accept it since most of us see that the aggregated gamble of one hundred 50 50 lose 100 gain 200 bets has an expected return of 5000 and making our probabilistic calculations we find out that there is only a 0 04 risk of losing any money unfortunately at least if you want to adhere to the standard mainstream expected utility theory you are then considered irrational a mainstream utility maximizer that rejects the single gamble should also reject the aggregate offer expected utility theory does not explain actual behaviour and choices but still although the theory is obviously descriptively inadequate economists and microeconomics textbook writers gladly continue to use it as though its deficiencies were unknown or unheard of that cannot be the right attitude when facing scientific anomalies when models are plainly wrong you d better replace them or as matthew rabin and richard thaler have it it is time for economists to recognize that expected utility is an ex hypothesis so that we can concentrate our energies on the important task of developing better descriptive models of choice under uncertainty yes indeed expected utility theory is an ex hypothesis this parrot is no more he has ceased to be e s expired and gone to meet is maker e s a stiff bereft of life e rests in peace if you hadn t nailed im to the perch e d be pushing up the daisies is metabolic processes are now istory e s off the twig e s kicked the bucket e s shuffled off is mortal coil run down the curtain and joined the bleedin choir invisible this is an ex parrot an ex parrot that transmogrifies truth shouldn t just be marginally mended it should be replaced share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky erik syll in memoriam personal 18 sep 2020 at 08 24 posted in varia comments off on erik syll in memoriam personal in loving memory of my father in law erik syll whose funeral took place yesterday at skeda church sweden share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky why economic models do not explain 16 sep 2020 at 12 33 posted in theory of science methodology 6 comments analogue economy models may picture galilean thought experiments or they may describe credible worlds in either case we have a problem in taking lessons from the model to the world the problem is the venerable one of unrealistic assumptions exacerbated in economics by the fact that the paucity of economic principles with serious empirical content makes it difficult to do without detailed structural assumptions but the worry is not just that the assumptions are unrealistic rather they are unrealistic in just the wrong way nancy cartwright one of the limitations with economics is the restricted possibility to perform experiments forcing it to mainly rely on observational studies for knowledge of real world economies but still the idea of performing laboratory experiments holds a firm grip of our wish to discover causal relationships between economic variables if we only could isolate and manipulate variables in controlled environments we would probably find ourselves in a situation where we with greater rigour and precision could describe predict or explain economic happenings in terms of structural causes parameter values of relevant variables and economic laws galileo galilei s experiments are often held as exemplary for how to perform experiments to learn something about the real world galileo s heavy balls dropping from the tower of pisa confirmed that the distance an object falls is proportional to the square of time and that this law empirical regularity of falling bodies could be applicable outside a vacuum tube when e g air existence is negligible the big problem is to decide or find out exactly for which objects air resistance and other potentially confounding factors is negligible in the case of heavy balls air resistance is obviously negligible but how about feathers or plastic bags one possibility is to take the all encompassing theory road and find out all about possible disturbing confounding factors not only air resistance influencing the fall and build that into one great model delivering accurate predictions on what happens when the object that falls is not only a heavy ball but feathers and plastic bags this usually amounts to ultimately state some kind of ceteris paribus interpretation of the law another road to take would be to concentrate on the negligibility assumption and to specify the domain of applicability to be only heavy compact bodies the price you have to pay for this is that 1 negligibility may be hard to establish in open real world systems 2 the generalisation you can make from sample to population is heavily restricted and 3 you actually have to use some shoe leather and empirically try to find out how large is the reach of the law in mainstream economics one has usually settled for the theoretical road and in case you think the present natural experiments hype has changed anything r...
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