Meta tags:
Headings (most frequently used words):
january, 2015, excerpt, the, thursday, wednesday, tuesday, monday, oil, blog, ecb, for, us, economy, is, will, super, so, 500, price, fed, friday, 30, 29, 28, 27, 26, 22, 21, 20, 15, 14, 13, 12, search, translate, archive, how, world, works, has, challenge, ups, downs, global, showing, some, signs, of, life, mostly, about, depressing, euro, qe, work, regulators, end, shanghai, high, don, bet, against, consumers, dr, copper, turning, bearish, nine, reasons, why, bond, yields, are, falling, commodity, cycle, wasn, mixed, employment, report, transportation, stocks, boosted, by, lower, earnings, holding, up, despite, plunge, drowning, in, happy, new, year, far,
Text of the page (most frequently used words):
the (438), and (103), that (76), for (75), year (61), oil (52), share (50), this (42), more (42), last (41), are (37), #january (34), was (33), from (32), during (32), down (31), excerpt (30), december (29), their (27), may (26), has (26), will (25), since (25), prices (25), price (24), bond (24), with (24), have (23), 2015 (22), november (20), 500 (20), earnings (20), high (20), yardeni (20), eurozone (20), they (19), inflation (19), euro (18), rose (18), today (18), than (18), been (18), fed (18), october (17), new (17), end (17), global (17), comments (17), posted (17), economy (16), pinterest (16), facebook (16), blogthis (16), email (16), index (16), china (16), morning (16), briefing (16), april (15), september (15), super (15), yields (15), consumer (15), subscribers (15), debt (15), february (14), march (14), july (14), commodity (14), copper (14), ecb (14), which (14), but (14), record (14), there (14), central (14), employment (13), consumers (13), some (13), confidence (13), also (13), yesterday (13), market (13), much (13), yield (13), growth (13), june (12), august (12), about (12), through (12), 2008 (12), its (12), energy (12), sector (12), trillion (12), banks (12), lower (11), cycle (11), falling (11), world (11), over (11), rate (11), plunge (11), not (11), other (11), easy (11), months (10), while (10), continue (10), data (10), still (10), could (10), zero (10), economic (10), drop (10), were (10), 2014 (9), despite (9), how (9), month (9), should (9), low (9), per (9), production (9), industry (9), money (9), financial (9), forward (9), rates (9), monetary (9), japan (9), stocks (8), too (8), recent (8), bonds (8), around (8), according (8), barrel (8), between (8), now (8), following (8), out (8), spending (8), after (8), demand (8), week (8), light (8), government (8), stock (8), start (8), 2011 (7), why (7), gain (7), said (7), get (7), real (7), dollar (7), interest (7), producers (7), shale (7), one (7), because (7), rather (7), many (7), would (7), supply (7), all (7), raising (7), sales (7), program (7), deflation (7), soared (7), what (7), draghi (7), transportation (6), 2016 (6), see (6), business (6), already (6), wage (6), billion (6), fall (6), again (6), investors (6), current (6), can (6), hedges (6), however (6), well (6), decade (6), stagnation (6), industrials (6), margin (6), 000 (6), strong (6), boost (6), time (6), labor (6), patient (6), years (6), then (6), seems (6), two (6), exports (6), goods (6), loans (6), might (6), boj (6), 2012 (5), happy (5), boosted (5), shanghai (5), works (5), investment (5), home (5), million (5), best (5), various (5), measure (5), late (5), bullish (5), survey (5), dropped (5), lowest (5), quarter (5), before (5), back (5), mess (5), another (5), monday (5), crude (5), whatever (5), does (5), costs (5), fell (5), target (5), companies (5), below (5), capital (5), these (5), big (5), german (5), focus (5), weight (5), rated (5), result (5), yet (5), secular (5), under (5), wednesday (5), along (5), lots (5), economies (5), retail (5), let (5), likely (5), fomc (5), raw (5), remains (5), germany (5), ppi (5), ultra (5), policy (5), both (5), enough (5), mario (5), bank (5), orders (5), continues (5), yen (5), crisis (5), borrowers (5), liquidity (5), doing (5), 2013 (4), far (4), drowning (4), wasn (4), nine (4), reasons (4), against (4), depressing (4), showing (4), blog (4), our (4), president (4), research (4), way (4), payroll (4), bloomberg (4), highest (4), cyclical (4), percentage (4), jobs (4), hard (4), highly (4), correlated (4), did (4), gdp (4), msci (4), 2009 (4), saudi (4), long (4), take (4), any (4), number (4), analysts (4), started (4), when (4), reported (4), borrowing (4), risk (4), takes (4), just (4), plunging (4), article (4), tuesday (4), past (4), forecasts (4), scenario (4), getting (4), responded (4), first (4), very (4), into (4), job (4), thursday (4), private (4), words (4), force (4), less (4), crb (4), spot (4), friday (4), capacity (4), show (4), decline (4), rising (4), currencies (4), chaos (4), chinese (4), revive (4), given (4), currency (4), beginning (4), problem (4), narrowed (4), previous (4), holding (3), report (3), turning (3), don (3), bet (3), regulators (3), work (3), mostly (3), life (3), great (3), economics (3), service (3), posts (3), everyone (3), starting (3), average (3), hourly (3), gasoline (3), windfall (3), weekly (3), jumped (3), reading (3), increase (3), remain (3), stronger (3), game (3), minister (3), opec (3), make (3), lowers (3), even (3), war (3), biggest (3), members (3), them (3), policies (3), future (3), bankers (3), hand (3), boom (3), slashing (3), exchange (3), goldman (3), output (3), coming (3), glut (3), peaked (3), fear (3), longer (3), excluding (3), sharply (3), plunged (3), consensus (3), estimates (3), led (3), lowering (3), quickly (3), half (3), profit (3), impact (3), small (3), gains (3), disappointing (3), caused (3), jump (3), 1999 (3), latter (3), most (3), part (3), encouraged (3), workers (3), signal (3), solid (3), instead (3), industrial (3), forecast (3), especially (3), near (3), set (3), bust (3), weaker (3), 2004 (3), forex (3), markets (3), know (3), officials (3), going (3), trading (3), addition (3), yuan (3), bubble (3), though (3), buy (3), without (3), core (3), major (3), like (3), three (3), ytd (3), lending (3), done (3), same (3), japanese (3), housing (3), losing (3), spread (3), maxed (3), ability (3), financed (3), qqe (3), mixed (2), bearish (2), signs (2), ups (2), downs (2), challenge (2), providing (2), 200 (2), news (2), boosting (2), measures (2), ending (2), 2007 (2), turned (2), state (2), buying (2), present (2), situation (2), unemployment (2), spend (2), revised (2), showed (2), targeting (2), 2300 (2), zombies (2), soaring (2), freefall (2), brent (2), peak (2), next (2), significant (2), arabia (2), ali (2), naimi (2), term (2), cut (2), whether (2), rise (2), gulf (2), countries (2), range (2), declared (2), consider (2), titled (2), test (2), patience (2), until (2), insurance (2), barrels (2), budgets (2), pay (2), almost (2), projects (2), day (2), suggest (2), soon (2), hunch (2), rig (2), count (2), grexit (2), north (2), gets (2), keep (2), frackers (2), pumping (2), expected (2), trigger (2), weighing (2), here (2), dropping (2), quite (2), based (2), overall (2), gross (2), warning (2), stimulating (2), party (2), decouple (2), odds (2), harder (2), where (2), second (2), adp (2), augur (2), gushing (2), texas (2), firms (2), advanced (2), wages (2), doesn (2), drive (2), higher (2), review (2), revisions (2), widely (2), expecting (2), hasn (2), evans (2), member (2), hurt (2), heading (2), weakness (2), averting (2), roughly (2), trade (2), expanded (2), mired (2), slowed (2), france (2), manufacturing (2), consecutive (2), weakest (2), metals (2), heavy (2), commodities (2), asset (2), barometer (2), curve (2), auction (2), widespread (2), move (2), shortage (2), slow (2), factors (2), good (2), imports (2), indicator (2), activity (2), base (2), metal (2), indicators (2), maybe (2), attributable (2), possible (2), among (2), four (2), including (2), mine (2), american (2), adjusted (2), flags (2), excess (2), put (2), noted (2), cpi (2), means (2), volatility (2), yes (2), downside (2), wants (2), vote (2), sell (2), flattening (2), banking (2), released (2), rules (2), entrusted (2), company (2), unknown (2), latest (2), defaults (2), hit (2), really (2), foreign (2), purchases (2), loss (2), burden (2), losses (2), national (2), restructuring (2), maturities (2), plummeted (2), close (2), only (2), lift (2), skeptical (2), quantitative (2), easing (2), thanks (2), imf (2), outlook (2), credibility (2), meanwhile (2), ben (2), bernanke (2), dark (2), ended (2), continued (2), darkness (2), side (2), drachma (2), mark (2), possibility (2), summer (2), talking (2), his (2), emu (2), stimulative (2), open (2), lowered (2), likelihood (2), offset (2), six (2), seem (2), starts (2), houston (2), dallas (2), vertically (2), gloomy (2), suggests (2), producing (2), durable (2), machinery (2), leading (2), pushing (2), mid (2), sum (2), introduction (2), converge (2), distinguished (2), credit (2), different (2), union (2), spanish (2), italian (2), versus (2), comparable (2), spreads (2), widened (2), significantly (2), pledged (2), defend (2), attempts (2), failed (2), effectiveness (2), solution (2), bang (2), decades (2), deflationary (2), want (2), reduce (2), debts (2), abenomics (2), chair (2), committee (2), fiscal (2), center (2), powered, blogger, copyright, hedge, clause, 194, 196, 195, 193, plun, 152, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, archive, please, improved, app, website, chart, rooms, chief, strategist, inc, provider, independent, strategy, highlights, excerpts, designed, professionals, translate, search, twitter, page, follow, subscribe, atom, older, newer, isn, certainly, such, 2006, pced, annualized, level, climate, component, respondents, who, tends, mood, contributing, points, wonder, ata, trucking, freight, tonnage, intermodal, railcar, loadings, santa, early, dow, theory, kings, inclined, agree, argue, retest, bouncing, outperform, imitation, comfort, ongoing, unsettling, 115, support, persist, never, 100, told, sense, him, russians, brazilians, hold, indefinitely, contrast, injured, felt, pain, reuters, revamped, key, point, nerves, powerhouses, intensifies, counting, upstart, rivals, lose, thing, shielding, crashing, need, reckon, those, moving, wait, run, racing, revamp, cashing, placed, hedged, consultants, familiar, deals, ran, tests, notes, above, largest, drillers, faster, expansion, statements, filed, securities, commission, 1tn, brutal, nearly, sachs, warned, cancellation, developments, deprive, cent, findings, sent, tumbling, vanish, majors, delay, ticket, lifeblood, petrol, supplies, heating, fuels, chemicals, tell, rapidly, 609, 482, déjà, making, comeback, talk, answer, prize, auto, related, industries, stress, middle, east, sectors, analysis, aggregate, values, weeks, edged, standard, poor, provides, each, estimate, bungee, rolling, lately, fuel, endgame, irrational, exuberance, winner, few, bls, humming, dakota, sign, trouble, jobless, claims, direct, respect, larger, account, ditto, emerging, overweight, machine, indeed, solidly, 240, workweek, unchanged, hours, earned, income, proxy, flatten, pace, incomes, calendar, upward, totaling, former, 261, 353, 119, household, fluctuated, evidence, obamacare, feared, mean, endorsing, impressed, resilience, washington, meddling, 273, dropouts, 456, economists, tightened, people, reenter, easier, happened, unemployed, fairy, godmother, godfather, charles, influential, normalization, looking, you, meeting, wrong, direction, noise, wild, catastrophe, full, numerous, occasions, argued, lasted, include, petroleum, troughed, 214, 2001, coinciding, joining, organization, 198, 638, bound, approximately, 550, 490, breakdown, driven, ever, increasing, recession, structural, highs, spain, 32nd, monthly, materials, ferrous, class, edge, indicating, stormy, weather, prince, slicing, dicing, ball, treasury, taper, terminate, qe3, chatter, rotation, discussed, using, headings, portfolio, rebalancing, fund, inflows, europe, subdued, safe, havens, dividend, yielding, ones, look, attractive, won, surprised, retests, overseas, sweden, previously, shown, trend, trends, age, wave, old, variables, owners, feeling, openings, voters, williams, lockhart, men, worldwide, accentuating, positives, includes, scrap, nearby, futures, perceived, phd, view, fears, sudden, dearth, gluts, observed, worst, performer, shed, value, straight, oversupply, mines, sierra, gorda, chile, inaugurated, adding, constancia, begin, operations, peru, looks, add, fast, recently, green, yellow, red, breaking, turns, fundamental, wsj, positive, spin, numbers, downward, saar, assumed, fact, sentiment, expectations, components, trauma, haunts, dip, worse, nothing, hate, junk, iran, negative, switzerland, curves, abroad, sniper, think, suffers, properties, pollution, corruption, campaign, instilled, probably, contributed, property, cooling, residential, estate, reduced, rollers, macau, gamble, gamblers, shenzhen, 300, clamped, bounced, restrictions, regulator, draft, curb, type, loan, surged, forms, shadow, forbid, use, equity, 458, stabilized, eased, neighbor, upstairs, consequences, known, freefalling, iranian, says, calamity, petrobras, houthis, yemen, killed, experiment, devaluation, shoe, detail, explicit, purpose, favored, area, interesting, handle, sharing, sovereign, bought, lie, individual, states, ideas, exact, role, play, apply, pursue, default, obliged, country, freedom, sorts, obvious, didn, perhaps, moved, doubt, mission, accomplished, opinion, transmission, mechanism, fewer, suppose, experience, headline, magic, fighting, rosengren, rush, raise, canadian, surprise, boe, unanimous, headwinds, futility, lord, nzirp, earth, lit, recovery, dragi, rally, hopes, region, avert, replace, currently, believer, willing, tunnel, 2003, deutsche, expect, parity, began, speculate, fundamentals, better, ago, weighted, soar, euros, lackluster, outpacing, dollars, demonstrated, nominal, debatable, lifts, king, paying, privilege, betting, shock, awe, greeks, stats, stagnating, performance, derby, birdman, press, conference, bit, skepticism, surprises, upside, balance, question, devaluations, particular, exporters, suffer, greenback, strengthen, building, upbeat, ifo, 103, 106, sanctions, imposed, russia, merchandise, improvement, overdone, cents, pound, selloff, stabilize, selling, traders, lightening, positions, lunar, holiday, begins, businesses, shut, sheep, markit, flash, pmi, wells, homebuilding, yergin, explains, swingers, free, saudis, learned, mortgage, lifting, weak, nondefense, category, declined, construction, mining, farm, impressive, 102, agreeing, series, field, having, hotter, ready, 120, 130, 2150, several, waiting, usual, season, upturn, dead, euphoric, yearning, questions, doubles, exceeds, resulting, greek, death, messing, revived, increasingly, flood, measured, non, gold, international, reserves, held, plus, holdings, treasuries, agencies, 116, official, historical, lows, deleveraging, enabled, borrow, services, expand, lost, consumption, enabling, stay, mounting, pressures, programs, spreading, forces, populist, politicians, gaining, power, particularly, greece, governments, austerity, countrymen, accumulated, called, couple, forcing, lenders, extend, haircuts, accept, course, option, stake, heart, destroy, beats, road, recognizing, inadvertently, created, triggering, undeclared, aren, aimed, driving, contribution, devalue, pushed, announced, had, anticipated, fretting, brief, stroll, memory, lane, recall, got, provided, 1980s, alan, greenspan, tech, 1990s, janet, yellen, recovered, finally, aiming, further, corporate, profits, causing, preference, increases, either, none, hiking, reiterated, assessment, judges, normalize, stance, word, ambiguous, considerable, phrase, upsetting, large, stimulus, lend, freely, introduced, policymakers, succeeded, devaluing, distorting, bad, watchers, watching, swiss, style, finds, jgbs, pboc, statement, media, linkedin, articles,
Text of the page (random words):
by dr ed yardeni at 12 05 am no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest tuesday january 20 2015 don t bet against us consumers excerpt last week i put a positive spin on the disappointing retail sales numbers i noted that despite the downward revisions in october and november and the decline in december the first two months of q4 were strong enough and inflation was low enough during the quarter to boost inflation adjusted retail sales including gasoline by 7 7 saar last quarter i assumed a 0 8 m m drop in consumer goods prices during december in fact the goods cpi was down 1 2 raising the quarter s growth rate to 8 3 the consumer sentiment index soared during the first half of january the overall index jumped from 93 6 during december to 98 2 this month the highest reading since january 2004 both the expectations and present situation components soared this month solid employment gains along with rising confidence suggest that consumers have the means and the will to spend today s morning briefing shanghai chaos 1 the trauma of 2008 still haunts investors 2 another dip or worse 3 nothing to fear but volatility in commodity financial and forex markets 4 yes we know stock investors hate volatility 5 there may be more downside in oil price and more risk in energy junk bonds 6 iran s president wants a vote 7 did shanghai chaos sell copper 8 negative interest rates in the eurozone switzerland and japan 9 flattening yield curves signal secular stagnation abroad not in us 10 more chaos in currencies 11 grexit part ii 12 don t bet against us consumers 13 how much will strong dollar hurt earnings 14 american sniper more for subscribers posted by dr ed yardeni at 9 39 am no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest thursday january 15 2015 dr copper is turning bearish excerpt the crb raw industrials spot price index is a great indicator of global economic activity it includes the price for copper scrap which has led the index s recent decline the nearby futures price of copper has plunged so far this year by 10 after falling 18 last year the price of copper is also highly correlated with the price of a barrel of brent crude oil dr copper is widely perceived to be the base metal with a phd in economics many investors view the price of copper as one of the best indicators of global economic activity its recent drop is raising fears that maybe the plunge in oil prices is attributable not just to too much supply but also to not enough demand that s possible but there may also be too much supply of copper rather than a sudden dearth of demand for the metal an article on commodity gluts in the 1 11 wsj observed take copper the worst performer among base metals last year it has shed 14 of its value on the back more than four straight years of oversupply yet new mines including the sierra gorda mine in chile that was inaugurated in october continue adding to the glut the constancia mine set to begin operations in peru next year looks to add even more today s morning briefing warning flags 1 it s all up to american consumers 2 can the us continue to decouple 3 inflation adjusted retail sales were very strong during q4 4 weekly consumer confidence has been rising fast recently 5 real hourly pay at record high 6 green yellow and red flags 7 crb raw industrials spot price index breaking down 8 copper following oil price 9 excess supply or shortage of demand 10 forward earnings turns down along with boom bust barometer and fundamental stock market indicator 11 commodity currencies getting weaker more for subscribers posted by dr ed yardeni at 12 05 am no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest wednesday january 14 2015 nine reasons why bond yields are falling excerpt the 30 year treasury auction today is likely to price the bonds around 2 50 during the auction on november 13 2014 the yield was 3 09 the price of these bonds is up roughly 10 since then the 10 year bond yield was 3 00 at the end of 2013 when the widespread consensus was that it would move higher in 2014 because the fed was expected to taper and terminate qe3 there was also some chatter about a great rotation out of bonds and into stocks the 10 year yield is now down to 1 92 last year in the 5 8 morning briefing i discussed nine reasons why yields were falling rather than rising using the following headings bond shortage portfolio rebalancing bond fund inflows fed still buying yields plunging in europe inflation remains subdued global growth is slow ultra easy monetary policy and safe havens these factors continue to drive yields lower they also make stocks especially dividend yielding ones look more attractive i won t be surprised if the 10 year yield retests its 2012 low of 1 43 in this scenario the 30 year yield could fall to 2 00 yields on 10 year government bonds are already much lower overseas japan 0 28 germany 0 48 france 0 76 sweden 0 81 and uk 1 58 previously i ve shown that the trend in the bond yield has been highly correlated with the trends in both inflation and the age wave i e the percentage of the labor force that is 16 34 years old the latter two variables remain bullish for bonds today s morning briefing accentuating some positives 1 s p 500 remains near record high despite drop in energy stock prices 2 small business owners are feeling very good 3 lots of job openings 4 fomc voters williams and lockhart are patient men 5 nine reasons why bond yields are falling in us 6 bond yields falling worldwide 7 china s exports showing more life than china s imports more for subscribers posted by dr ed yardeni at 12 05 am no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest tuesday january 13 2015 the commodity super cycle wasn t so super excerpt last year on numerous occasions i argued that the commodity super cycle wasn t so super it lasted roughly 10 years it started when the crb raw industrials spot price index which does not include petroleum troughed at 214 on november 5 2001 coinciding with china joining the world trade organization on december 11 of that year it rose 198 to peak at 638 on april 11 2011 it dropped sharply that year and has been range bound between approximately 500 550 since then on friday it was down to 490 which may signal a breakdown commodity producers expanded their capacity expecting a 20 to 30 year super cycle driven by ever increasing demand from china instead the eurozone fell into a recession during 2011 and seems mired in structural stagnation while china s growth has slowed industrial production data through november show that output remains below the 2011 highs for france germany spain and the uk during december china s ppi for manufacturing was down 2 5 y y the 32nd consecutive monthly decline china s ppi for raw materials was down 6 4 y y the weakest since october 2009 it was led by a 19 0 drop in ferrous metals prices the heavy industry ppi was down 3 5 while the light industry ppi was down 0 6 today s morning briefing commodity wage deflation 1 goldman s oil forecast 2 are commodities an asset class 3 goldman s commodity index is drowning in oil 4 crb raw industrials spot price index is on edge 5 global growth barometer indicating stormy weather 6 more ppi deflation in china 7 a real prince 8 saudi s shale game 9 why did wages fall during december 10 slicing and dicing average hourly earnings 11 another curve ball for the fed more for subscribers posted by dr ed yardeni at 12 05 am no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest monday january 12 2015 mixed employment report excerpt december s wage data were disappointing indeed while private sector payroll employment rose solidly by 240 000 and the average workweek for the sector was unchanged at 34 6 hours the drop in private sector wages by 0 2 m m caused our earned income proxy to flatten during december following november s jump of 0 8 m m that doesn t augur well for retail sales however the strong pace of employment and the boost to real incomes from lower energy costs should drive consumer spending higher in coming months let s review the employment report 1 payroll employment rose 2 95 million last year the best calendar year gain since 1999 upward revisions totaling 50 000 during october and november boosted the former s gain to 261 000 and the latter s to 353 000 2 full time employment rose to a cyclical high of 119 9 million at the end of last year according to the household survey that s the most since july 2008 part time employment fluctuated around 27 5 million last year in other words there is no evidence in these data that obamacare boosted part time employment as was widely feared that doesn t mean i am endorsing the program rather i continue to be impressed by the resilience of the economy despite washington s meddling 3 the labor force fell 273 000 during december as the number of dropouts rose 456 000 to a record high of 92 9 million many economists have been expecting that this number would fall as the labor market tightened and encouraged more people to reenter the labor force because jobs are easier to get that hasn t happened so far it is likely that many long term unemployed workers are dropping out today s morning briefing averting a catastrophe 1 fairy godmother and godfather 2 charles evans is an influential and patient member of the fomc 3 is the fed more or less patient than evans 4 normalization looking less likely this year to us 5 see you after april 28 29 fomc meeting 6 stronger dollar could hurt 7 wage inflation heading in the wrong direction 8 wage weakness noise or signal 9 despite solid job gains workers continue to drop out of labor force 10 wild more for subscribers posted by dr ed yardeni at 12 05 am no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest thursday january 8 2015 s p 500 transportation stocks boosted by lower oil price excerpt in the us the transportation industry is a big winner from falling oil prices it is one of the few where industry analysts have responded quickly to the drop in energy prices by raising their s p 500 transportation earnings forecasts for 2014 2015 and 2016 as a result forward earnings rose 17 0 during the second half of last year up from the first half s increase of 8 5 the forward profit margin for the sector is up from last year s low of 9 0 during the week of january 23 to 10 4 at the end of last year today s morning briefing job machine 1 adp payroll data augur well for bls measure 2 humming along 3 oil still gushing in texas and n dakota 4 no sign of trouble in jobless claims yet 5 direct impact of oil plunge on us employment and capital spending is very small 6 adp data should get more respect 7 small firms turning into larger firms account for lots of employment gains 8 oil windfall for advanced economies is almost 1 trillion 9 ditto for emerging economies 10 industry analysts raising profit margin and earnings forecasts for s p 500 transportation stocks 11 focus on overweight rated s p 500 transportation sector more for subscribers posted by dr ed yardeni at 12 05 am no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest wednesday january 7 2015 s p 500 earnings holding up despite oil price plunge excerpt while forward earnings are dropping sharply for the s p 500 energy sector forward earnings are holding up quite well in the other sectors this analysis is based on aggregate dollar values rather than per share over the past 12 weeks through the week of 12 25 the forward earnings of the s p 500 energy sector plunged 30 by 38 billion to 90 billion as a result s p 500 forward earnings peaked during the week of october 2 at a record high and edged down by 3 2 through the end of the year excluding energy forward earnings rose to yet another record high at the end of 2014 standard poor s capital iq provides consensus earnings forecasts for each quarter the sector estimates for q4 are lower since the end of q3 led by energy which has been revised down sharply by 26 2 the overall s p 500 s q4 estimate is down 7 1 excluding energy it is down 5 2 today s morning briefing the world according to gross 1 gross warning 2 a bungee scenario for oil price 3 the debt super cycle is rolling over 4 so is the commodity super cycle 5 easy money has been stimulating supply more than demand lately 6 party is over for zombies 7 can us decouple from global secular stagnation 8 consumers windfall from lower fuel costs is over 200 billion 9 raising the odds of the endgame while lowering the odds of irrational exuberance 10 getting harder to see fed raising rates this year under any scenario 11 focus on market weight rated s p 500 industrials more for subscribers posted by dr ed yardeni at 12 05 am no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest tuesday january 6 2015 drowning in oil excerpt the ongoing freefall in the price of crude oil is unsettling investors it dropped to 53 04 per barrel of brent crude yesterday the lowest since may 2009 it is down 54 from last year s peak of 115 15 on june 19 the next significant support may be the december 24 2008 low of 32 27 at the end of last year saudi arabia s oil minister ali al naimi said in the middle east economic survey that the current prices of oil will persist over the long term and that oil prices will never go back to 100 he also told the ft it is not in the interest of opec producers to cut production whatever the price whether it is 20 40 50 or 60 it does not make sense according to him if saudi arabia lowers its production prices will rise again but the russians brazilians and us shale oil producers will take market share from us for ali al naimi with production costs at 4 5 per barrel the gulf countries can hold indefinitely with oil at current prices or even if it fell to as low as 20 per barrel in contrast the production of shale oil in the us costs in a range between 50 80 per barrel they will be injured before we felt any pain he declared now consider the following 1 hedges yesterday reuters posted an article titled revamped u s oil hedges may test opec s patience the key point as a war of nerves between u s shale producers and gulf powerhouses intensifies opec s biggest members are counting down the months until their upstart rivals lose the one thing shielding them from crashing oil prices hedges they may need much more patience than they reckon however because those hedges are a moving target rather than wait for their price insurance to run out many companies are racing to revamp their policies cashing in well placed hedges to increase the number of future barrels hedged according to industry consultants bankers and analysts familiar with the deals 2 stress test on the other hand bloomberg yesterday ran an article titled oil below 60 tests economics of u s shale boom it notes that oil companies started...
|
