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appointing more for subscribers posted by dr ed yardeni at 12 05 am no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels commodities crude oil earnings revenues us valuation thursday may 14 2015 bond market sprechen sie deutsch excerpt yesterday s much weaker than expected us retail sales report initially caused the 10 year us treasury bond yield to fall in the morning then it spent the rest of the day moving higher the comparable pesky german bond yield continued to move higher to 0 73 from its record low of 0 03 on april 17 the us bond yield has been joined at the hip with the german one all year while april s payroll employment report put a fed rate hike back on the table yet again for june the retail sales report arguably took it off the table yet again that should have been bullish for bonds instead the dollar took a dive on the soft patch sales report the weaker dollar lifted the prices of precious metals and oil before crude oil inventory data depressed them which also unnerved bonds a 2 bond yield looks attractive for the us 10 year treasury given the subdued outlook for the fed s rate hiking the problem is that if the german yield gets there the us yield will be closer to 3 that would make it even more attractive as long as you didn t buy the bond at 2 today s morning briefing consumers not registering 1 less ka ching around the world 2 a demographic theory of secular stagnation 3 older workers can t depend on broke social welfare states 4 may you live a long life and have lots of savings 5 how governments depressed fertility 6 us retail sales join the soft patch batch 7 china s senior moment 8 japan italy and germany are at the top of median age ranking 9 spotting some shoppers in europe 10 bonds learning to speak deutsche 11 focus on market weight rated s p 500 retail industry more for subscriber s posted by dr ed yardeni at 12 05 am no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels bonds central banks commodities crude oil currencies eurozone fed us us consumer us employment wednesday may 13 2015 what s driving yields higher except only a few weeks ago we all figured out why bond yields had dropped close to zero in the eurozone it was mostly because the ecb implemented qe on march 9 and pledged to buy bonds yielding at least the same as the central bank s deposit rate which was lowered to minus 0 20 on september 4 that hasn t changed so why the backup in bond yields maybe the markets have concluded that the ecb s qe will avert deflation and boost the eurozone s economic growth the rebound in oil prices certainly helped to allay some of the deflation concerns in the bond market oil prices stopped falling on january 13 the price of copper stopped falling on january 29 and is up 18 since then both have been highly correlated with the us bond yield over the past year the rebound in the price of oil may be a correction of a severely oversold condition the supply demand balance remains bearish but turmoil in the middle east is recurring and tends to add a risk premium to the price of oil the price of copper may reflect an improving global economy in general and a strengthening chinese economy in particular more likely it reflects expectations that the chinese government will provide lots of stimulus to revive china s growth rate which isn t likely to happen today s morning briefing major tom the fed 1 ground control has lost control of the bond market 2 bond yields should maintain current altitude for a while 3 stocks ready to go into outer space 4 a simple theory for the backup in yields 5 close correlation between bond yield and oil and copper prices over past year 6 us bond market no longer for isolationists 7 four fed heads speak 8 no big surprise in q1 earnings season s positive surprise 9 financials and health care sectors save the quarter 10 energy earnings crash and burn but s p 500 earnings up impressive 11 5 y y ex energy more for subscribers posted by dr ed yardeni at 12 05 am no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels bonds central banks china commodities crude oil ecb eurozone tuesday may 12 2015 us housing breaking ground excerpt many years ago before china emerged the price of copper was driven mostly by demand from the us housing industry could it be that us housing starts are taking off which is why copper is firming let s review some of the related indicators 1 employment residential construction payrolls rose 23 600 during april that was the best monthly increase since the start of the current housing expansion however that followed a decline of 1 800 during march the first decrease since may 2012 then again total residential construction employment rose to 2 45 million the highest since january 2009 2 railcar loadings on the other hand railcar loadings of lumber and wood products are consistent with the current subdued pace of housing starts 3 lumber prices while both are volatile there is a decent correlation between the nearby futures price of lumber and the s p 500 homebuilding stock price index i have found that an average of the two is highly correlated with housing starts the average is down 14 4 ytd today s morning briefing breaking bad 1 china s stock market turns volatile as p es surge 2 the insanity trade in china 3 pboc warns about too much debt as it cuts interest rates 4 china suffering from too much capacity too much debt too much deflation too much pollution and too many seniors 5 professor copper is bullish on china and bearish on bonds 6 is housing turning up or down 7 payrolls say up while lumber futures say down 8 brexit and grexit more for subscribers posted by dr ed yardeni at 12 05 am no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels commodities stocks us us employment monday may 11 2015 yellen on the wage question excerpt fed chair janet yellen has stressed the importance of wage inflation in influencing the fomc s decision to start raising interest rates april s average hourly earnings ahe for all workers rose just 0 1 m m and 2 2 y y she has said that she would like to see 3 4 wage gains or be reasonably confident that they are heading in that direction the three month change in this measure of wages settled down to 1 8 saar during april from 3 6 during march nothing to get yellen too excited which seemed to get the stock market very excited on friday however q1 s employment cost index eci for wages and salaries in the private sector a more comprehensive measure of wages than the ahe rose 2 7 y y the highest since q3 2008 the phillips curve which posits an inverse relationship between wage inflation and the unemployment rate is actually working much better with the eci than the ahe measure of wages especially compared to the short term unemployment rate see phillips curve yellen is a big believer in the phillips curve she said so in an important 3 27 speech a substantial body of theory informed by considerable historical evidence suggests that inflation will eventually begin to rise as resource utilization continues to tighten it is largely for this reason that a significant pickup in incoming readings on core inflation will not her emphasis be a precondition for me to judge that an initial increase in the federal funds rate would be warranted with respect to wages i anticipate that real wage gains for american workers are likely to pick up to a rate more in line with trend labor productivity growth as employment settles in at its maximum sustainable level we could see nominal wage growth eventually running notably higher than the current roughly 2 percent pace in a footnote she cited four studies for recent evidence on the relationship between labor market slack and wages today s morning briefing goldilocks godmother 1 janet hamlet to lift or not to lift that is the question 2 janet christine high and mighty say stocks are mighty high 3 yellen s dashboard shows labor market is cruising 4 phillips curve may be starting to work pointing to bigger wage gains 5 april retail sales may settle soft patch question 6 yellen s latest assessment of stock valuation it s high 7 addictive fairy dust 8 another relief rally after latest feared outcomes turn out to be nonevents 9 on the verge of a melt up 10 energy materials and financials join the rally parade 11 eci vs ahe more for subscribers posted by dr ed yardeni at 12 05 am no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels central banks fed inflation us us employment wages yellen thursday may 7 2015 why are bonds taking a dive excerpt us bond yields have jumped recently the 10 year treasury is up from a recent low of 1 87 on april 17 to 2 26 yesterday everyone is blaming that development on the spike in eurozone bond yields particularly the surge in the 10 year german government yield from its all time low of 0 033 on april 17 to 0 58 yesterday that s despite the implementation of qe by the ecb starting on march 9 with the benefit of hindsight the backup in yields isn t a surprise yields simply fell too low at the start of the year on fears that plunging oil prices might trigger widespread deflation especially in the eurozone and maybe cause another financial crisis if oil companies started to default on their debts now that oil prices have rebounded those concerns are evaporating and yields are normalizing i think it s that simple in any event the backup in bond yields is doing the same to mortgage rates in the us that could stall the already lackluster recovery in the housing industry which might explain why lumber prices are falling so maybe the fed should postpone its lift off given the lift off in bond yields today s morning briefing bonds away 1 confused fed heads 2 more on the dark side than the light side 3 our collective conundrum 4 a simple explanation why bond yields have surged 5 are bond traders expecting fed lift off while forex players aren t 6 wages might finally be rising faster but gasoline prices are rising rapidly too 7 stocks bonds and currencies could be choppy through the summer 8 fomc members expecting much better growth may be disappointed 9 adp payrolls especially weak for large goods producing companies 10 oil and dollar hitting capital spending on construction and industrial machinery 11 focus on overweight rated s p 500 financials more for subscribers posted by dr ed yardeni at 12 05 am no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels bonds central banks commodities eurozone fed us wednesday may 6 2015 us trade data confirm weak global economy excerpt yesterday the census bureau released march data for us merchandise trade imports rose significantly however the 10 3 m m jump in the inflation adjusted series reflected some catching up after the west coast port strikes ended during february more significantly real merchandise exports edged up just 1 1 m m and are showing a flattening tendency over the past year on a y y basis imports are up 10 1 while exports are up only 0 3 the slowdown in exports probably reflects secular stagnation in the global economy as well as the negative impacts of the strong dollar and the port strikes today s morning briefing the world is flat 1 thomas friedman s book 2 the end of the cold war was the end of the greatest trade barrier ever 3 has globalization improved or worsened income inequality 4 has globalization led to secular stagnation 5 world export volumes and production growing slowly 6 not much action in exports of us and eurozone 7 china s trade indicators are weak inside and out 8 summers and rogoff agree on disease but not cure 9 too much debt is one of the main causes of secular stagnation 10 india s problem 11 focus on market weight rated s p 500 transportation more for subscriber s posted by dr ed yardeni at 12 05 am no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels trade us tuesday may 5 2015 analysts continue to lower s p 500 earnings excerpt although the dollar might have peaked on march 13 for a while and the price of crude oil might have bottomed on january 13 for a while industry analysts who cover the s p 500 are still lowering their earnings estimates for both 2015 and 2016 they now expect 119 02 and 134 18 per share for this year and next year down 5 9 and 5 2 from their estimates at the end of last year for this year they ve been lowering their q2 q4 estimates as earnings have beaten expectations during q1 with a 4 7 hook up move so far over the past two weeks which is typical during earnings seasons it s getting harder to find much if any gaarp growth at a reasonable price in the us given the latest lofty valuation ranking for the s p 500 sectors energy 28 8 vs 14 2 year ago consumer staples 19 7 17 4 consumer discretionary 19 0 17 4 health care 17 8 16 2 materials 17 2 16 7 s p 500 17 2 15 3 utilities 16 4 16 1 it 16 2 14 4 industrials 16 2 16 3 financials 13 9 13 5 and telecom services 13 4 13 1 today s morning briefing the world according to gaarp 1 john irving s terminal cases 2 desperately seeking growth at a reasonable price 3 is looking for gaarp like waiting for godot 4 global synchronized secular stagnation 5 industry analysts aren t exuberant about outlook for revenues and earnings 6 secular stagnation rather than boom or bust 7 valuations aren t cheap but could go higher in a liquidity driven melt up 8 hard to find much gaarp in us 9 global m pmis uninspiring more for subscribers posted by dr ed yardeni at 12 05 am no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels earnings revenues stocks us valuation monday may 4 2015 german bond selloff spills into us excerpt in recent days there have been lots of mixed and confusing signals coming out of the eurozone and us economies and investors have acted accordingly on friday may day was a happy day for stock investors as they merrily danced around the maypole the day before they all seemed to run for cover the s p 500 fell 1 1 on thursday and rose 1 1 on friday to 2108 29 just 0 4 below the record high of 2117 60 on april 24 it s been range bound since the start of the year for bond investors it was mayday mayday mayday every day last week the 10 year us treasury yield rose to 2 12 on friday from 1 93 the week before despite a weaker than expected gdp report and a relatively benign fomc statement on wednesday us yields rose in reaction to the rise in the german government s 10 year bond yield from this year s record low of 0 033 on april 17 to 0 37 on thursday just before much of continental europe took friday off for may day germany s economic indicators have been showing some strength and deflationary fears seem to be subsiding on thursday we learned that the eurozone s cpi was unchanged during april on a y y basis as energy prices rebounded it hit a recent low of 0 6 during january when o...
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