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overage and i mean whole you could fill a graduate thesis with it about the experience of being on raya which is invariably described in tones somewhere between disappointment and bemusement because once you re inside the velvet rope the people inside the velvet rope are it turns out just people the actor you ve seen in three movies is exactly as bad at texting as the guy you went to high school with the model in milan is in fact mostly sitting in her apartment in bushwick the exclusivity does not produce better dating outcomes for the people inside it produces a marginally better dating pool by a few specific metrics attractiveness professional success and a substantially worse one by every other metric sincerity follow through availability willingness to actually commit to a second date instead of cycling through the next forty matches because you can this is also true of every previous club in history the astors didn t have happier marriages what raya is selling then is not a better outcome but a better story you went on a date with a person who is on raya you can tell your friends the story has currency in rooms where currency matters the platform is in the deepest sense a story generation engine it produces narratives that you carry off platform into your actual social life where the narratives announce your position in the attention economy without you having to say it directly this is much more efficient than the older mechanism where you had to actually do something impressive and hope the impressive thing reached the relevant ears raya does the hard part for you the membership is the achievement the kicker and this is where the structural rhyme to older gatekeeping really lands is that the underlying class structure being reproduced is recognizable the kids who got into raya in 2018 when the platform was at its peak credibility were disproportionately the kids of people who would have been in studio 54 in 1978 who were in turn disproportionately the kids of people who d been in the stork club in 1948 there s enormous churn at the edges the soundcloud rapper the tiktok personality the suddenly viral whoever but the core of the membership is the children of the existing entertainment industrial bourgeoisie the offspring of agents and showrunners and casting directors the second generation actors and the third generation studio executives exactly the people who would have been at the polo lounge in 1985 and at spago in 1995 and at the chateau in 2005 the platform just digitized the room the room itself didn t change very much the technical question of who actually built the platform is also informative raya s engineering is unimpressive the moderation tools are bad the discovery algorithm is rudimentary the matching is essentially random within tiers and the company has remained tiny by tech standards somewhere in the low double digits of full time employees last i checked because the platform doesn t need to scale scaling would destroy it the company s competitive moat is the exact opposite of every other consumer tech product s competitive moat which is also why no large tech company has been able to copy it you can t out raya raya by getting better at it because better at it means more users and more users means less exclusive and less exclusive means less raya the product cannot grow without destroying itself which is fine if you re a private club and ruinous if you re a venture funded growth company the investors have to their credit mostly figured this out the thing the platform genuinely innovated is the quantification of social class screening at a scale and speed that was previously impossible the patriarchs in 1880 had to actually know everyone the gatekeeping was knowledge bound slow restricted to people the existing members had personally heard of raya runs a scoring function on every applicant in something like five business days using public data anyone can scrape and the function approximates pretty well what an old gatekeeper would have done with three months of inquiry the selection got faster cheaper more legible and less defensible there s a formula now and the formula is on the internet and you can game it if you understand it which is itself why raya periodically changes the formula and refuses to publish it same as it ever was basically the room exists because of the people who aren t in it the mechanism for keeping them out has gotten more efficient the mechanism s efficiency has produced no noticeable improvement in the quality of the romantic outcomes inside the room which were always beside the point anyway because the dating was the cover story and the gating was the business materialist scumbag bambamramfan said the selection got faster cheaper more legible and less defensible there s a formula now and the formula is on the internet and you can game it if you understand it which is itself why raya periodically changes the formula and refuses to publish it that s the most interesting line in the piece tell me what it has to do with cryptocurrency regulation the line in the raya post that s been bothering me and a couple of you flagged it in the notes asking about it was the bit at the end about how raya periodically changes its admissions formula and refuses to publish it and how this is a feature not a bug of any selection mechanism that runs on public data scoring the general principle goes like this once your gatekeeping criterion becomes a formula that is once it s legible enough that an outsider can reverse engineer it from observed outcomes you have a problem because formulas can be gamed the whole point of running a selection mechanism is to sort applicants by some quality you care about and the moment the applicants understand the sort they will optimize for the sort rather than for the underlying quality goodhart s law in three sentences the patriarchs didn t have this problem because their criterion we know your parents wasn t a formula at all it was a social fact that couldn t be faked at the margin raya s criterion instagram follower count plus profession plus some other stuff can be faked at the margin and is by people who buy followers and stage photoshoots in rented bushwick lofts so the platform s response is to keep the formula moving not because the formula was wrong because if the formula stops moving the applicants catch up to it within one product cycle and the rejected applicant pool gets contaminated with people who look great on paper but are exactly the kind of striver the platform exists to exclude the opacity is the moat the opacity is itself the product whatever the formula is at any given moment matters less than the fact that nobody outside the office knows the formula at this given moment which is a structural pattern and it shows up in a lot of places where you wouldn t initially think to look for it because the people who do this rarely admit they re doing it take youtube the youtube recommendation algorithm and i m going to use algorithm loosely here because what youtube has at this point is something like fifteen different ranking systems stapled together with the shorts surface and the long form suggested video sidebar and the homepage browse feed and search results all running on different scoring functions is famously opaque and the opacity is famously frustrating to creators who have spent the last fifteen years engaged in a continuous and largely doomed exercise of reverse engineering watch time was the dominant signal until it wasn t click through rate mattered enormously until it stopped mattering as much engagement likes comments shares was decisive then it was downweighted because the engagement farming was so blatant most recently the platform has been openly weighting viewer satisfaction surveys which is exactly what it sounds like youtube literally asks viewers whether they liked the video and rolls that into rankings and creators are now scrambling to figure out how to game that which is going to be much harder because the input is private survey responses rather than public engagement signals for now anyway the pattern matters more than any specific signal change every two or three years youtube announces or doesn t announce but is observed to implement a major shift in what the recommendation engine prioritizes every shift produces a wave of creator complaints a flurry of trade press coverage an entire cottage industry of consultants who claim to have cracked the new formula and within six months a new equilibrium in which the formula is once again sort of known and therefore once again on the verge of being gamed into uselessness last august creators woke up to find their desktop traffic gutted and their mobile traffic up by a corresponding amount with no explanation and no announcement and the consensus on the trade press side is that this had to do with anti scraping measures and maybe a bunch of restricted mode policy adjustments running simultaneously in september shorts creators got cratered in december large channels started getting terminated en masse for what appear to have been automated moderation errors and the reinstatement process involved no actual explanation of what had happened just a quiet restoration after public pressure built up the official explanations where there were any were not actually explanations if you ask youtube why it doesn t publish the algorithm the answer is some combination of it s too complicated to summarize we want to optimize for the user experience and the algorithm is constantly being tuned to that end and we don t want bad actors to game it the third reason is the only one that s actually true and it s the same reason raya doesn t publish its formula once the criterion is public the criterion is dead this is why the entire creator economy exists in a state of permanent low grade anxiety the people whose livelihoods depend on the platform cannot in any stable way know what to do to keep their livelihoods working they can only triangulate watch the patterns hire consultants listen to ex google engineers giving guru talks and adjust their behavior in response to indirect evidence of changes that the platform itself will not confirm the anxiety is the entire point this is a feature for youtube it means that nobody is ever quite confident enough in their model of the platform to walk away from it and start their own thing because the platform s value to the creator is precisely the platform s opacity to everyone else the audience is on youtube the audience is sortable only by youtube and the sorting function is youtube s private property take the formula public and you lose the moat take the moat public and the audience eventually figures out it doesn t need youtube there s a precedent here and it s an instructive one compare here to early 2000s google search which had a more or less publicly understood ranking function links pointing in basically with some weighting for anchor text and a few other things and which proceeded to get absolutely demolished by seo farms over the course of about a decade until the public formula became useless and google had to switch to a private machine learned ranking that nobody outside mountain view understands including most of the people inside mountain view the transparency of pagerank circa 1999 was the single thing that almost killed search you can tell the story of every google ranking update from 2010 onward as a slow retreat from legibility an accelerating refusal to explain why the search results changed the deeper principle here is that any institution running a selection function on public inputs faces an arms race between its scoring system and the applicants ability to optimize against the scoring system and the only sustainable position is to keep the scoring system moving faster than the applicants can adapt which means the institution must structurally refuse to commit to a fixed knowable defensible rubric doing so would amount to giving up the game now look at the sec under gary gensler 2021 through 2025 on the question of crypto regulation and tell me this same logic isn t running the standard reading of gensler s tenure which you will find in every blockchain association policy brief every coinbase amicus filing every aggrieved op ed from tom emmer or patrick mchenry on the house financial services committee is that the sec engaged in regulation by enforcement rather than rulemaking meaning the agency declined to issue specific guidance on how crypto companies could register their tokens as securities how to structure a compliant offering what specifically counted as a security and what didn t while simultaneously bringing enforcement actions against firms that failed to register under the existing securities laws coinbase formally petitioned the sec in 2022 for digital asset specific rulemaking asking essentially tell us the rules so we can follow them and in december 2023 the commission denied that petition gensler wrote a public statement on the denial explaining why the statement is worth reading in full but the short version is the rules already exist they re the rules from 1933 and 1934 the howey test from the 1946 supreme court decision tells you whether something is an investment contract and therefore a security and if you want to know whether your token meets the howey criteria you can read howey same as anyone else the sec doesn t owe you a more specific decoder ring than that industry s response was predictably screaming because what gensler was actually doing and i want to be careful here because this is the part that the partisans on both sides won t quite say out loud was structurally identical to what youtube does with its algorithm and what raya does with its admissions formula he was refusing to commit to a legible rubric the howey test in the abstract sounds like a rule in application is there an investment of money in a common enterprise with an expectation of profit derived from the efforts of others turns out to be a four prong test where every prong is contestable every prong has fifty years of case law on it and the sec s actual view on how those prongs apply to any specific crypto offering is whatever the sec decides on the day they bring the enforcement action hester peirce the dissenting republican commissioner crypto mom in the industry trade press said this out loud in 2023 that the agency was being imprecise about whether the token itself was a security versus whether the offering of the token was a security and that this imprecision was a failure of the agency s duty to be a clear regulator tom emmer accused gensler of inventing the term crypto asset security out of whole cloth with no statutory basis they were right he did invent it that was the point here s the thing the industry side never quite admitted which is that the alternative they were demanding a published rulebook specifying exactly which token...
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