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description= 7 posts published by moctavio during January 2016;
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the (482), and (138), that (91), not (80), for (62), this (49), are (46), has (44), but (43), can (42), was (42), you (37), which (34), will (34), #economic (34), venezuela (33), there (33), with (32), have (31), what (30), they (30), from (27), #assembly (27), january (25), all (25), some (25), may (22), opposition (22), more (20), about (19), new (19), how (19), been (19), only (19), 2016 (18), people (18), even (18), july (17), chavismo (17), were (17), ships (17), march (16), time (16), who (16), maduro (16), october (15), november (15), february (15), april (15), 2014 (15), country (15), august (14), september (14), december (14), june (14), 2015 (14), government (14), did (14), day (14), first (14), its (14), see (14), national (14), when (14), picture (14), now (13), 2006 (13), 2008 (13), would (13), years (13), last (13), one (13), produce (13), other (12), 2003 (12), 2004 (12), 2005 (12), 2007 (12), 2009 (12), 2010 (12), 2011 (12), 2012 (12), 2013 (12), hall (12), get (12), 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these first appeared about fifteen years ago they carried ten or twelve small arepa size cheeses you can see on the left how they make them on small containers of three or four cheeses the reason the large container is 1200 bs us 1 33 which most people can not afford the smaller one is only bs 550 us 0 60 even in the free market it is really hard to find eggs on the left you can see the empty egg store i was told had some in the morning and they think they would get more in an hour on that news people start lining up as seeing on the picture on the rights it s only a hope but the owners swears some will arrive while i was there there was a big commotion the guy with the red shirt on the left is pushing a cart which has rice and oil thus people start following him into the store on the right where there were people already lining up for the goods that are arriving as you can see in the picture on the right this store specializes in hard to get goods at very high prices you can see corn flakes domino sugar and on the left all sorts of paper products that are scarce such as diapers feminine products and the like add oil and rice now but those will not last long as this was happening the guy that owns the store where i was buying saltine crackers hard to find said to me i wonder where they can get that oil i can t and that is his business line the next two surprised me on the left a fruit stand that is usually well stocked most fruit stands looked sort of like this half empty this is not generally the case fruit is like produce that you can find it because it is not regulated on the right is the fish stand which was very well stocked if you try to see the prices above the stand you will understand why at bs 3 700 us 4 1 it is not very affordable to the average population remember the minimum monthly salary at the parallel rate of exchange is about us 10 7 per month you can have fun at the free market just reading the signs on the left this stand advertises that it has a debit credit card access point but only for purchases above bs 500 all of us 40 cents in the middle a sign in the avocado stand plays a pun on the fact that the word in spanish to play an instrument or touch something is the same do not touch play it is not a piano btw the avocados were large and beautiful finally a sign that says for products with just prices maduro s creation there are no bags additional bag bs 20 2 cents definitely signs of the times finally the free market continues to be a place for those with initiative on the left a guy who claims to be a medical doctor and sets up a plastic table and provides medical certificates for driving required in venezuela today he was advertising hard telling people that they should take advantage of it now as the government is about to increase the tax unit unidad tributaria which will increase the price of the certificate which today is at bs 600 66 cents in us people were lining up for the bargain including yours truly that comes up to be about 11 us cents for year of validity of the certificate remember on election day i was stopped by the cops and had all my documents in order except that one and on the picture on the right above the beautiful flowers grown in galipan inside the avila mountain at near 6 000 feet above sea level flower growers from galipan have been providing these since i was a little kid yes eons ago and as you can see they continue to do so always a welcome sight at the mercado libre de chacao in caracas posted in uncategorized 14 comments the santero economics trinity january 18 2016 some people took offense at my last post on santero economics when the new vp for the economy was named they thought the term lacked seriousness in an economic debate i disagree when i first introduced the term i was making two analogies one to the famous voodoo economics term that geroge bush sr coined referring to reagan s economic ideas but more importantly i defined why the term was justified by defining what santeria was and comparing it to the current framework for economic policy in venezuela and i quote my post from july 5th 2015 santería which is composed of a set of beliefs taken from various religions which are some times incoherent and even contradictory and which are based on hope spiritual beliefs and ideas with little fundamentals thus we can characterize the current policies as santero economics as the policies are equally incoherent based on hope and many times go against each other with no relation to known economic principles and fundamentals and today i complete the cycle first it was tony boza s ideas then salas and now with a description of the foreign part of the santero trinity spanish economist alfredo serrano who has recently espoused his seven steps to solving venezuela s economic problems i will not go over all seven of them in detail but this reminds me of an article which is somewhere in this blog in which someone suggested chavez was proposing a society which had nothing to do with who venezuelans where and ignores their habits culture and idiosyncrasies serrano s proposals seem to ignore the reality of venezuela and venezuelans today in fact it seems to ignore the reality of what chavismo has brought on venezuela in the last 16 years too let s look at the proposals proposal 1 the state of misiones sociales requires an economic mirror for every social mission an economic mission is needed to unleash new productive forces internally to do this public procurement must serve as the economic muscle in favor of the new democratizing social metabolism we must pursue the economic multiplier effect derived from the social revolution jeez i really don t know where to start let s do it at the beginning which social mission are we going to work with has serrano made a diagnosis of the current status of those misiones the way i understand it the educational misiones ribas robinson and sucre are sort of half assed right now as people are not getting neither the instruction nor the money nor the promised programs and if they were how would you propose to promote mision ribas for example as an economic force when you pay people to study do you want them to study or to produce something my understanding is that it promotes people not working as the beca to study is more than enough to live on or at least as good as also working and i don t see how the health misiones can be leveraged economically least of all when barrio adentro is 60 70 abandoned i mean really tell me how this can be turned and leveraged into production when half of it is simply not functioning i mean pick your favorite mision and tell me whether is active or not and if it is whether it can be leveraged into a new fangled metabolism for economic production his words not mine mercales show lines and shortages barrio adentro is barely alive people are not getting their beca for rivas o sucre i mean really what country is serrano talking about and how is he going to do it let s move on proposal 2 it is necessary to sort out what can be produced and what is not a productive revolution requires getting down to work with the new economic engines considering a the real added value that can be generated internally and b the outer limit imposed by global value chains nothing would produce new goods if it is just for importing much of the value added sounds wonderful but isn t that what the government claims to have been doing for the last ten years and isn t the fact that the government did that prioritizing that we have shortages lines and empty shelves are we going to import martians to do it this time around or chinese they are here already or cubans to see if this time they get it right because it seems that all the government has done in 15 years is do exactly that and the results are sort of lacking more than sort of but let s be magnanimous proposal 3 not everything is a matter of engines it is also a matter of actors the democratization of the production system is a necessary and sufficient condition in the new economic era because it is the only way to break the current oligopolistic dependence the communal power must be essential pivot in the new economic order both productive and distributive issue and marketer the commune has to stop being economically marginal the output is certainly not a neoliberal communal output uff as someone once said como se come eso how do you eat that stuff first of all we are talking about a crisis that needs to be resolved today not in five years people need to eat for example people in the communes are concerned about making ends meet getting stuff that they can t get standing in line and surviving under current hardships what are you going to do bring a whiteboard telling they have to produce milk meat tomatoes mangoes chickens and rice has this guy ever considered how it is different to breed cows in the tropics or to grow any sort of plant does he know about how the government nationalized and destroyed agroisleña the only provider of technical advise seeds and even funding to the small producers in order for the communes to get into any of this productive stuff you would need to return agroisleña now agropatria to its original shape before you can even think about educating teaching and training the communes to produce really basic stuff and the government that destroyed it is supposed to do it really to say nothing of obtaining the required medicines and vitamins to grow a healthy chicken which have been lacking for months even to producers that have the money to say nothing of being able to buy the cows that can produce milk in the tropics feed for them and the medicines for when they are ill all very long term and you need a lot of money if you ask me 4 we must avoid falling into the neoliberal trap to address the issue of foreign exchange from the exclusive focus of the nominal value is it important to discuss the exchange rate yes as long as previously defined what the new currency allocation matrix at a time of scarce foreign exchange it is crucial to choose how they will plant to flower currencies other real economy in the shortest possible time it requires a kind of acupuncture so he is they will be given an anti inflationary productive use and pro growth to the available foreign currency the neoliberal trap of focusing on the nominal value is because keeping the nominal value artificially and incredibly low is what has given rise to the biggest corruption racket and trap in the history of venezuela and dozens of billions of dollars lost to government officials as well as to exports to colombia which the government has for years been unable to stop again will we have martians running this does mr serrano even understand what is happening in venezuela every day and how inefficient corrupt and incompetent chavismo has been in the face of all these distortions i will skip 5 but here is 6 6 faced with restrictions outside it is essential to make progress on tax sovereignty there is enough room to do a tax revolution based on principles of social justice it must implement a plan to combat fraud and tax evasion it needs to raise in whatever it takes to ensure social and productive investment and preventing external shock has negative impact internally really who will pay this tax social justice when professionals make less than 30 a month again who will pay companies which ones what is the magnitude of this revolution or uncollected tax does mr serrano understand even who pays taxes in venezuela does he know the cutoff for yearly income to pay or not taxes does he know that banks make money by buying tax free bonds from the government which will be impossible to sell if they were not tax free really with an economy with a 10 gdp contraction the solution is a tax revolution please and the best is the last point i dont know where mr serrano has been but here is point 7 7 another answer is to return to the regional path effectively it would surely trigger special margin sucre plans to import priority goods bypassing the dollar it is essential also import new paths without dollar mercosur with some compensatory methods while a new map of investment is achieved from the region well i will not even comment on this the regional path enough said wonder what macri thinks but i have to wonder has this guy ever been in venezuela for any length of time posted in uncategorized 32 comments some steps forward and some back in venezuela january 17 2016 it has been six weeks since the opposition won the parliamentary election and many things have happened but i do not really want to give you a blow by blow analysis of what happens or is happening in the country but rather try to see and understand the overall picture thus i did not report on the details of maduro s speech to the assembly or many other topics which some may think require some commentary but i think is more important to report on the overall picture of the country six weeks after the elections and what i can say is that there has certainly been some progress some steps forward but the whole picture is still lacking as the country seems to be drifting into a crisis with probably more steps forwards than backwards but too much uncertainty still present in the country to begin with i don t think either side has understood well the message the voters sent in dec 6th on the one hand the maduro administration has not understood that the vote against it represents a vote against the consequence of its badly mismanaged economic policies despite this it continues on a path to radicalize the country blame the economic war all of which will bring little economic benefit precisely the only thing the voters wanted him to pay attention to the opposition on the other hand seems to be understanding its victory as a mandate to get rid of maduro which is probably why most opposition voters cast their vote for but as i have discussed previously the in between both the ni ni s who don t belong to either side and the pro chavista voters were casting a vote to punish chavismo but not necessarily because the opposition electrifies them and wants them to run the country so far the opposition has said little in how it intends to deal with economic problems true it is little that the assembly can do on economic matters but this does not mean that it can not make proposals or counter proposals of which it has done little on these matters perhaps the only exception is the bill to give ownership to the mision vivienda homes which was repudiated by chavismo perhaps the most positive thing to has happened is that there has been acceptance of the victory by the opposition even if this has been a reluctant acceptance or not it is there whether thanks to the military or not the opposition found the need for security the first day the deputies were sworn in at the assembly but the routine of at least bi weekly sessions is such that the last time the assembly me...
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