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description= 15 posts published by Lars Syll during January 2025;
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uch as expected utility common knowledge backward induction correct and consistent beliefs etc etc then adding things like framing cognitive bias and different kinds of heuristics do not solve any problem if we want to construct a theory that can provide us with explanations of individual cognition decisions and social interaction we have to look for something else applications of game theory have on the whole resulted in massive predictive failures people simply do not act according to the theory they do not know or possess the assumed probabilities utilities beliefs or information to calculate the different subgame trembling hand perfect nash equilibria they may be reasonable and make use of their given cognitive faculties as well as they can but they are obviously not those perfect and costless hyper rational expected utility maximizing calculators game theory posits and fortunately so being reasonable makes them avoid all those made up rationality traps that game theory would have put them in if they had tried to act as consistent players in a game theoretical sense share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky invictus 25 jan 2025 at 11 02 posted in varia comments off on invictus a great poem it helped one of the greatest men that has walked this earth keep hope alive during twenty seven years in prison share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky bank of england goes mmt 23 jan 2025 at 18 41 posted in economics 3 comments share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky deconstructing uncertainty 23 jan 2025 at 18 28 posted in statistics econometrics comments off on deconstructing uncertainty share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky om detta må vi berätta 20 jan 2025 at 21 53 posted in economics politics society 2 comments vi talar ofta i dag om tilltagande kriminalitet sämre hälsa och ökade psykiska problem men nästan aldrig om vad dessa symptom i hög grad är orsakade av arbetslösheten 8 5 arbetslöshet är den högsta på ett decennium och sysselsättningsgraden har successivt sjunkit sedan 80 talet detta har lett till en ökning av främst otrygga jobb och också på flera sätt försämrat för de som är sysselsatta som väl är finns det trots den bistra bilden i stort ändå några som vägrar titta åt andra hållet när den svenska modellen sakta men säkert håller på att demonteras om arbetslösheten och dess verkliga kostnader talas det initierat och intressant med stefan carlén ekonomihistoriker och chefsekonomen på handelsanställdas förbund i senaste avsnittet av starta pressarna share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky how evidence is treated in mainstream macroeconomics 19 jan 2025 at 11 25 posted in economics comments off on how evidence is treated in mainstream macroeconomics new keynesian macroeconomist simon wren lewis has a post on his blog discussing how evidence is treated in modern macroeconomics emphasis added it is hard to get academic macroeconomists trained since the 1980s to address this question because they have been taught that these models and techniques are fatally flawed because of the lucas critique and identification problems but dsge models as a guide for policy are also fatally flawed because they are too simple the unique property that dsge models have is internal consistency take a dsge model and alter a few equations so that they fit the data much better and you have what could be called a structural econometric model it is internally inconsistent but because it fits the data better it may be a better guide for policy being able to model a credible world a world that somehow could be considered real or similar to the real world is not the same as investigating the real world even though all theories are false since they simplify they may still possibly serve our pursuit of truth but then they cannot be unrealistic or false in any way the falsehood or unrealisticness has to be qualified in terms of resemblance relevance etc at the very least the minimalist demand on models in terms of credibility has to give way to a stronger epistemic demand of appropriate similarity and plausibility one could of course also ask for a sensitivity or robustness analysis but the credible world even after having tested it for sensitivity and robustness can still be a far way from reality and unfortunately often in ways we know are important the robustness of claims in a model does not per se give a warrant for exporting the claims to real world target systems questions of external validity are important more specifically also when it comes to microfounded dsge macromodels it can never be enough that these models somehow are regarded as internally consistent one always also has to pose questions of consistency with the data internal consistency without external validity is worth nothing yours truly and people like tony lawson have for many years been urging economists to pay attention to the ontological foundations of their assumptions and models sad to say economists have not paid much attention and so modern economics has become increasingly irrelevant to the understanding of the real world within mainstream economics internal validity is still everything and external validity is nothing why anyone should be interested in that kind of theories and models is beyond imagination as long as mainstream economists do not come up with export licenses for their theories and models to the real world in which we live they really should not be surprised if people say this is not science since fully fledged experiments on a societal scale as a rule are prohibitively expensive ethically indefensible or unmanageable economic theorists have to substitute experimenting with something else to understand and explain relations between different entities in the real economy the predominant strategy is to build models and make things happen in these analogue economy models rather than engineering things happening in real economies formalistic deductive glasperlenspiel can be very impressive and seductive but in science it ought to be considered of little or no value to simply make claims about the model and lose sight of reality neoclassical economics has since long given up on the real world and content itself with proving things about thought up worlds empirical evidence only plays a minor role in economic theory where models largely function as a substitute for empirical evidence hopefully humbled by the manifest failure of its theoretical pretences the one sided almost religious insistence on axiomatic deductivist modelling as the only scientific activity worthy of pursuing in economics will give way to methodological pluralism based on ontological considerations rather than formalistic tractability to have valid evidence is not enough what economics needs is sound evidence why simply because the premises of a valid argument do not have to be true but a sound argument on the other hand is not only valid but builds on true premises aiming only for validity without soundness is setting the aspiration level of economics too low for developing a realist and relevant science share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky autonomy in econometrics 17 jan 2025 at 16 11 posted in statistics econometrics comments off on autonomy in econometrics the point of the discussion of course has to do with where koopmans thinks we should look for autonomous behaviour relations he appeals to experience but in a somewhat oblique manner he refers to the harvard barometer to show that relationships between economic variables not traced to underlying behaviour equations are unreliable as instruments for prediction his argument would have been more effectively put had he been able to give instances of relationships that have been traced to underlying behaviour equations and that have been reliable instruments for prediction he did not do this and i know of no conclusive case that he could draw upon there are of course cases of economic models that he could have mentioned as having been unreliable predictors but these latter instances demonstrate no more than the failure of harvard barometer all were presumably built upon relations that were more or less unstable in time the meaning conveyed we may suppose by the term fundamental autonomous relation is a relation stable in time and not drawn as an inference from combinations of other relations the discovery ofsuch relations suitable for the prediction procedure that koopmans has in mind has yet to be publicly presented and the phrase underlying behaviour equation is left utterly devoid of content rutledge vining i guess robert lucas didn t read vining share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky social sciences a plaidoyer 14 jan 2025 at 19 10 posted in theory of science methodology 2 comments one of the most important tasks of social sciences is to explain the events processes and structures that take place and act in society however the researcher cannot stop at this as a consequence of the relations and connections that the researcher finds a will and demand arise for critical reflection on the findings to show that unemployment depends on rigid social institutions or adaptations to european economic aspirations to integration for instance constitutes at the same time a critique of these conditions it also entails an implicit critique of other explanations that one can show to be built on false beliefs the researcher can never be satisfied with establishing that false beliefs exist but must go on to seek an explanation for why they exist what is it that maintains and reproduces them to show that something causes false beliefs and to explain why constitutes at the same time a critique this i think is something particular to the humanities and social sciences there is no full equivalent in the natural sciences since the objects of their study are not fundamentally created by human beings in the same sense as the objects of study in social sciences we do not criticize apples for falling to earth by the law of gravity the explanatory critique that constitutes all good social science thus has repercussions on the reflective person in society to digest the explanations and understandings that social sciences can provide means a simultaneous questioning and critique of one s self understanding and the actions and attitudes it gives rise to science can play an important emancipating role in this way human beings can fulfil and develop themselves only if they do not base their thoughts and actions on false beliefs about reality fulfillment may also require changing fundamental structures of society understanding of the need for this change may arise from various sources like everyday praxis and reflection as well as from science explanations of social phenomena must be subject to criticism and this criticism must be an essential part of the task of social science social science has to be an explanatory critique the researcher s explanations have to constitute a critical attitude toward the very object of research society hopefully the critique may result in proposals for how the institutions and structures of society can be constructed the social scientist has a responsibility to try to elucidate possible alternatives to existing institutions and structures in a time when scientific relativism is on the march it is important to keep up the claim for not reducing science to a pure discursive level against all kinds of social constructivism we have to maintain the enlightenment tradition of thinking of reality as something that is not created by our views of it and of the main task of science as studying the structure of this reality ontology is important it is the foundation for all sustainable epistemologies the problem with positivist social science is not that it gives the wrong answers but rather that in a strict sense it does not give answers at all its explanatory models presuppose that social reality is closed and since social reality is fundamentally open models of that kind do not explain anything about what happens in such a universe share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky next page recent posts finding the late student stuff love s secret stein s paradox a lesson on precision and unbiasedness audioholic summer research ett välförtjänt bottenrekord arbetslösheten inte 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