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isn t a belief about technology it is a belief that we can figure out how to manage the glide path towards shorter work hours while maintaining living standards for everyone it s a good thing that we ll have to work less and there remains a little piece of strong robo optimism lurking inside of me i don t think work less is really well defined we will likely have to spend less time working for wages to afford the basic material goods in our lives but that doesn t mean we won t spend lots of our time working for each other doing other things whether that work is paid in wages or not is immaterial share this share on x opens in new window x share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on reddit opens in new window reddit email a link to a friend opens in new window email like loading posted in uncategorized 17 replies roman history reading posted on december 10 2015 by dvollrath 15 note the growth economics blog has moved sites click here to find this post at the new site this really has nothing to do with economic growth so feel free to dismiss it my most recent hobby reading has been on the fall of the roman republic and the emergence of the empire under augustus i ve got a nice little reading list if you are interested in the topic or time period or looking for gifts for that special nerd in your life tom holland s rubicon the last years of the roman republic is a great introduction to the era he writes in an engaging style but provides enough information and analysis to make you think it s not just a then this battle happened kind of history book richard allston s romes revolution death of the republic and birth of the empire argues that you have to understand the nature of roman social networks to understand what happened to allow the republic to die the republic survived because the networks of major families were in something like a balance of power caesar and then augustus broke that balance of power by creating a network outside of the major families the legions whether this was inevitable the balance could not hold necessary to limit civil war or desirable was the old balance so great is not something allston takes a firm stand on but he describes nicely how the senate got coopted into the new augustan network ronald syme s the roman revolution is a classic in this area written in 1939 it is one of those books that presumes the reader is already educated in classical history so i d suggest trying some of the others first before you tackle this one unless of course you graduated from oxford in 1917 for all that it is an excellent book albeit quite grim syme see s caesar and augustus as somewhat inevitable given the inherent problems that the roman republic had with administrating an empire like allston it was about the persona network of power that augustus built not any grand political theories that created the empire h h scullard s from the gracchi to nero a history of rome 133 bc to ad 68 is another classic in this arena a little more accessible than syme s work and not a bad intro the nice aspect is that it covers the early part of this period with more depth than most there are two reasons the gracchi brothers are often used as the start of this story first because they were the first to take full advantage of the position of tribune to veto senate legislation asserting the power of the plebs second because the senate oligarchy got so spooked by this that they had the gracchi killed which opened the door to violence as a legitimate political action gareth sampson s the collapse of rome marius sulla and the first civil war is not a great book it s very much and then this battle happened kind of history but the actors and time period are where i think much of the interest is at the republic starts to wobble as marius and then sulla use break the ice and use violence to assert their political power all in the name of the people caesar learned his lessons from these men tom holland s dynasty the rise and fall of the house of caesar is really about a different time he provides some background but the first part of this book is about how augustus built his dictatorship into a hereditary dynasty the second part is about how augustus various relatives tried desperately to screw this up i didn t find this book nearly as engaging as rubicon perhaps because the story of the early emperors is something i was more familiar with and the minutiae of palace intrigue gets a little old after a while plutarch s lives one of the classic original sources despite the fact that plutarch was writing himself from other sources regardless much of the story of this era is based on guys like plutarch so it is worth reading i think it s one of those things to read after you ve exposed yourself to the general story because plutarch is a little sloppy about name usage places and dates appian s the civil wars again an original source that forms a lot of the basis of later history as you can glean from the title the period leading up to the establishment of the empire is a series of civil conflicts not a single one you have generally speaking a running series of conflicts between populares those claiming to represent the people and optimates those claiming to represent the traditional republic over who will actually be in charge the gracchi s versus the senate is one brief skirmish marius versus sulla turns into full scale war caesar versus pompey is a really just an extension of that war augustus versus antony loses a little of this thread as by then it is simply a slugfest over who gets to be the dictator but another book to read after you ve got the essential history in your head i won t claim that everything i read here is fraught with deep contemporary relevance but there are some interesting elements of the roman world around the time of the end of the republic that have parallels worth thinking about technological disruption an influx of slaves from the east eliminates jobs for roman citizens creating a class of people with a lot of uncertainty and little to lose increasing wealth disparities the landowners who owned the slaves consolidated land becoming even richer and displaced even more common romans citizenship questions italian allies of the romans had helped defeat carthage and win the east but were not citizens this bothered them but the idea of making them citizens bothered the existing romans who had little more than their political rights as assets external threats in the middle of this period a new wave of gauls descends on italy scaring the out of rome and people quickly abandoned traditional limits on the power of the consul in order to ensure safety once granted the legions would never really relinquish this power even as the effective dictator changed marius sulla pompey caesar antony augustus it s a fascinating period of time enjoy share this share on x opens in new window x share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on reddit opens in new window reddit email a link to a friend opens in new window email like loading posted in uncategorized 15 replies women and the wealth of nations posted on december 8 2015 by dvollrath 2 note the growth economics blog has moved sites click here to find this post at the new site i discussed a paper by david cuberes and marc teigner at the sea meetings in new orleans a few weeks ago it provides some interesting calculations on the economic cost of discrimination against women in developing countries ct set up a simple model of occupational choice a la banerjee and newman where people can be a workers b self employed entrepreneurs or c firm owners with multiple employees as in that standard model there is some distribution of managerial talent and so the most capable managers become firm owners and hire lots of employees those with medium management skills run firms but it only makes sense for them to hire themselves self employed finally those with low management skills find it more lucrative to work for the firm owners than start their own firms what ct add to this is frictions that prevent women from entering those different categories even though their distribution of managerial talent is similar to that of men they set this up so that if affects the number of women in each category but not the distribution of their skills for example if 100 men have sufficient management skills to become firm owners then 100 women presumably also have sufficient management skills but the friction means that only 20 of them get to be firm owners the average skill of those 20 is the same as the average skill of the 100 men the friction discriminates purely on gender not on talent this takes place all down the line so you have fewer female firm owners fewer female self employed entrepreneurs and fewer female workers now because we have gotten rid of some possible firm owners and entrepreneurs we are worse off fewer firm owners means lower demand for labor so the wage of workers is lower thus more people men and women want to become self employed so the firms that do exist are smaller fewer workers are available and more of the population works as self employed entrepreneurs on the other hand if few enough women are in the labor force then the wage of the men and remaining women may actually be higher which also limits the incentive to start a firm regardless we get distortions to the number of firms distortions to the wage of workers and distortions to the number of self employed entrepreneurs in the end this results in lower output per capita how much lower that is the real contribution of ct they take survey data from a set of developing countries that contains information by gender on whether people are workers self employed entrepreneurs or firm owners they then ask what kind of frictions are necessary in their model to generate the observed numbers once they know that they can ask the counter factual question of what output per capita would be if they removed any or all of the frictions to women their table 5 shows the percent loss of income per capita due to various frictions focus on the long run loss columns which have allowed for capital to adjust to the lower supply of labor the first column with a 7 06 loss for central asia shows the impact of the frictions that limit women from becoming firm owners and or self employed entrepreneurs as you can see there is a sizable loss across regions ranging from about 5 ish to not quite 10 the second column adds in the loss from limiting women from becoming workers in other words limiting their labor force participation rate this increases the loss in all regions of the world but there is really wide variation in the effects the full set of frictions lower output per capita by about 37 in the mid east for example due to very low labor force participation rates by women south asia has a loss of about 25 of output per capita the other regions have losses that are still sizable but not quite as large in absolute terms for comparison ct did the same calculations for oecd countries and report those in their table 3 shown below here they break the results down by percentile of losses so top 25 means the average loss of the quarter of oecd countries with the biggest losses while not quite as bad as the mid east the worst oecd countries have losses from frictions towards women s work that are as costly as in many developing countries even the bottom 25 representing the countries with the smallest losses are losing 10 of output per capita from frictions towards women which is no better or worse than any developing region of the world one interesting note about both tables is that the losses associated with just the frictions towards self employment and firm ownership i e losses due to and are relatively consistent across all oecd groups and developing regions at between 5 and 7 percent rich countries are not necessarily any better at limiting these frictions than poor countries when you add in the labor force participation effects i e losses due to and there we still find that there is not a significant advantage for the oecd the implications is that the oecd is not richer than developing countries because it treats women better it is rich despite the fact that it puts up barriers to women participating in the labor force and or in entrepreneurship when i discussed the paper i threw up the following quote from david landes the wealth and poverty of nations p 413 in general the best clue to a nation s growth and development potential is the status and role of women these numbers seem to indicate that this might not necessarily be right it is not necessarily true that rich countries put women to work in a more efficient manner than poor countries one way that landes point could manifest itself is in which women are discriminated against the ct model has frictions that apply in a blanket manner to all women regardless of managerial ability or worker skill if rich countries discriminate against low skill women but allow high skill women to enter the various categories of professions ct use then this would limit the loss of output per worker on the other hand even if high skilled women are not discriminated against in entering certain professions they may still be discriminated against within those professions and that would create further losses perhaps rich countries do less of this kind of discrimination i don t know for sure i m simply trying to take landes idea seriously and think of how why ct s results might not be capturing it for the us hsieh hurst jones and klenow calculated that 15 20 percent of us growth in output per worker from 1960 to 2008 could be due to the improved allocation of talent across occupations due to the alleviation of discrimination again they don t have measure of specific discriminatory practices but use the fact that the race and gender composition of occupations is converging over time towards the aggregate composition in their calculations about 3 4 of the total gains from reduced discrimination are due to white women entering professions they previously were underrepresented in 90 of the gains are due to reduced discrimination against all women their table 10 landes point could be valid if we think of the us and other oecd countries doing better than poor countries in the allocation of women across occupations conditional of them being allowed to work in the first place where we do not see major differences between rich and poor as ct show is in allowing women to work in the first place the losses from this type of friction are roughly equivalent around the world with a few notable exceptions the mid east and maybe south asia now it is simply implicit frictions that ct and hhjk calculate and not a measure of the respect status or treatment of women in general landes may be right that the position of women is a good indicator of growth even if the frictions that ct calculate are not much different in the ...
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