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description= 15 posts published by Lars Syll during December 2014;
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e and care this is for you ritva may the blessing of god be upon you what americans can learn from sweden s school choice disaster 28 dec 2014 at 09 59 posted in education school 2 comments advocates for choice based solutions should take a look at what s happened to schools in sweden where parents and educators would be thrilled to trade their country s steep drop in pisa scores over the past 10 years for america s middling but consistent results what s caused the recent crisis in swedish education researchers and policy analysts are increasingly pointing the finger at many of the choice oriented reforms that are being championed as the way forward for american schools while this doesn t necessarily mean that adding more accountability and discipline to american schools would be a bad thing it does hint at the many headaches that can come from trying to do so by aggressively introducing marketlike competition to education there are differences between the libertarian ideal espoused by friedman and the actual voucher program the swedes put in place in the early 90s but swedish school reforms did incorporate the essential features of the voucher system advocated by friedman the hope was that schools would have clear financial incentives to provide a better education and could be more responsive to customer i e parental needs and wants when freed from the burden imposed by a centralized bureaucracy but in the wake of the country s nose dive in the pisa rankings there s widespread recognition that something s wrong with swedish schooling competition was meant to discipline government schools but it may have instead led to a race to the bottom it s the darker side of competition that milton friedman and his free market disciples tend to downplay if parents value high test scores you can compete for voucher dollars by hiring better teachers and providing a better education or by going easy in grading national tests competition was also meant to discipline government schools by forcing them to up their game to maintain their enrollments but it may have instead led to a race to the bottom as they too started grading generously to keep their students maybe the overall message is there are no panaceas in public education we tend to look for the silver bullet whether it s the glories of the market or the techno utopian aspirations of education technology when in fact improving educational outcomes is a hard messy complicated process it s a lesson that swedish parents and students have learned all too well simply opening the floodgates to more education entrepreneurs doesn t disrupt education it s just plain disruptive ray fisman ray fisman is not the only critical international reviewer of the swedish voucher experiment this is what henry m levin distinguished economist and director of the national center for the study of privatization in education at teachers college columbia university wrote when he recently reviewed the evidence about the effects of vouchers in 1992 sweden adopted a voucher type plan in which municipalities would provide the same funding per pupil to either public schools or independent private schools there were few restrictions for independent schools and religious or for profit schools were eligible to participate in 1994 choice was also extended to that of public schools where parents could choose either a public or private school in the early years only about 2 percent of students chose independent schools however since the opening of this century independent school enrollments have expanded considerably by 2011 12 almost a quarter of elementary and secondary students were in independent schools half of all students in the upper secondary schools in stockholm were attending private schools at public expense on december 3 2012 forbes magazine recommended for the u s that we can learn something about when choice works by looking at sweden s move to vouchers on march 11 and 12 2013 the royal swedish academy of sciences did just that by convening a two day conference to learn what vouchers had accomplished in the last two decades the following was my verdict on the criterion of freedom of choice the approach has been highly successful parents and students have many more choices among both public schools and independent schools than they had prior to the voucher system on the criterion of productive efficiency the research studies show virtually no difference in achievement between public and independent schools for comparable students measures of the extent of competition in local areas also show a trivial relation to achievement the best study measures the potential choices public and private within a particular geographical area for a 10 percent increase in choices the achievement difference is about one half of a percentile even this result must be understood within the constraint that the achievement measure is not based upon standardized tests but upon teacher grades the so called national examination result that is also used in some studies is actually administered and graded by the teacher with examination copies available to the school principal and teachers well in advance of the testing another study found no difference in these achievement measures between public and private schools but an overall achievement effect for the system of a few percentiles even this author agreed that the result was trivial in evaluating these results we must also keep in mind that the overall performance of the system on externally administered and evaluated tests used for international comparisons showed substantial declines over the last fifteen years for sweden for those who are interested in the patterns of achievement decline across subjects and grades i have provided the enclosed powerpoint presentation with respect to equity a comprehensive national study sponsored by the government found that socio economic stratification had increased as well as ethnic and immigrant segregation this also affected the distribution of personnel where the better qualified educators were drawn to schools with students of higher socio economic status and native students the international testing also showed rising variance or inequality in test scores among schools no evidence existed to challenge the rising inequality accordingly i rated the swedish voucher system as negative on equity among the industrialized countries only three have a universal voucher or choice system chile holland and sweden some would also argue that belgium qualifies in this category the former three countries have very different designs with the dutch system being the most highly regulated and devoting the most attention to equity even so the tracking that takes place at age 12 in the netherlands between vocational and academic secondary schools has important equity consequences in terms of socio economic stratification although based upon choice the available choices available to a student are heavily dependent on her achievement test results the chilean system has witnessed an increasingly notable stratification of the population both within and between public and private sectors students from more educated and wealthier families are found in the private schools which receive public funding but can choose which students to accept from among applicants the chilean system allows schools to charge additional fees beyond the voucher also favoring more advantage families a recent swedish study on the effects of school choice concluded the results from the analyses made in this paper confirm that school choice rather than residential segregation is a more important factor determining variation in grades than is residential segregation the empirical analysis in this paper confirms the pisa based finding that between school variance in student performance in the swedish school system has increased rapidly since 2000 we have also been able to show that this trend towards increasing performance gaps cannot be explained by shifting patterns of residential segregation a more likely explanation is that increasing possibilities for school choice have triggered a process towards a more unequal school system a rapid growth in the number of students attending voucher financed independent schools has been an important element of this process the idea of voucher based independent school choice is commonly ascribed to milton friedman friedman s argument was that vouchers would decrease the role of government and expand the opportunities for free enterprise he also believed that the introduction of competition would lead to improved school results as we have seen in the swedish case this has not happened as school choice has increased differences between schools have increased but overall results have gone down as has proved to be the case with other neo liberal ideas school choice when tested has not been able to deliver the results promised by theoretical speculation john östh eva andersson bo malmberg for my own take on this issue only in swedish sorry see here here here and here share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky aggregate production functions and marginal productivity theory neoclassical fairy tales 27 dec 2014 at 20 20 posted in economics 1 comment when one works as one must at an aggregate level with quantities measured in value terms the appearance of a well behaved aggregate production function tells one nothing at all about whether there really is one such an appearance stems from the accounting identity that relates the value of outputs to the value of inputs nothing more all these facts should be well known they are not or if they are their implications are simply ignored by macroeconomists who go on treating the aggregate production function as the most fundamental construct of neoclassical macroeconomics the consequences of the non existence of aggregate production functions have been too long overlooked i am reminded of the story that during world war ii a sign in an airplane manufacturing plant read the laws of aerodynamics tell us that the bumblebee cannot fly but the bumblebee does fly and what is more it makes a little honey each day i don t know about bumblebees but any honey supposedly made by aggregate production functions may well be bad for one s health attempts to explain the impossibility of using aggregate production functions in practice are often met with great hostility even outright anger to that i say that the moral is don t interfere with fairytales if you want to live happily ever after franklin fisher neoclassical marginal productivity theory is a collapsed theory from both a historical and as shown already by sraffa in the 1920s and in the cambridge capital controversy in the 1960s and 1970s a theoretical point of view as joan robinson wrote in 1953 the production function has been a powerful instrument of miseducation the student of economic theory is taught to write q f l k where l is a quantity of labor k a quantity of capital and q a rate of output of commodities he is instructed to assume all workers alike and to measure l in man hours of labor he is told something about the index number problem in choosing a unit of output and then he is hurried on to the next question in the hope that he will forget to ask in what units k is measured before he ever does ask he has become a professor and so sloppy habits of thought are handed on from one generation to the next for more on the inadequacy of marginal productivity theory this article of yours truly may perhaps be of some interest share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky rational expectations a panel discussion with robert lucas 27 dec 2014 at 19 24 posted in economics 1 comment kevin hoover let me follow up on my question to make it more pointed so that mike lovell and others can comment on it in 1986 mike you wrote a pretty well known paper in which you examined the empirical success of a variety of alternatives to rational expectations including adaptive expectations structural expectations and implicit expectations lovell 1986 and in your paper rational expectations does not dominate these alternatives you even cite a paper by muth which comes down more or less in favor of implicit expectations what i am wondering then is that given the way that you have approached this empirically or the way it could be approached empirically does this mean that we should find an alternative to rational expectations or are there other expectational approaches that are an empirical complement to rational expectations michael lovell i wish jack muth could be here to answer that question but obviously he can t because he died just as hurricane wilma was zeroing in on his home on the florida keys but he did send me a letter in 1984 this was a letter in response to an earlier draft of that paper you are referring to i sent jack my paper with some trepidation because it was not encouraging to his theory and much to my surprise he wrote back this was in october 1984 and he said i came up with some conclusions similar to some of yours on the basis of forecasts of business activity compiled by the bureau of business research at pitt letter muth to lovell 2 october 1984 he had got hold of the data from five business firms including expectations data analyzed it and found that the rational expectations model did not pass the empirical test he went on to say it is a little surprising that serious alternatives to rational expectations have never really been proposed my original paper was largely a reaction against very naıve expectations hypotheses juxtaposed with highly rational decision making behavior and seems to have been rather widely misinterpreted two directions seem to be worth exploring 1 explaining why smoothing rules work and their limitations and 2 incorporating well known cognitive biases into expectations theory kahneman and tversky it was really incredible that so little has been done along these lines muth also said that his results showed that expectations were not in accordance with the facts about forecasts of demand and production he then advanced an alternative to rational expectations that alternative he called an errors in the variables model that is to say it allowed the expectation error to be correlated with both the realization and the prediction muth found that his errors in variables model worked better than rational expectations or mills implicit expectations but it did not entirely pass the tests in a shortened version of his paper published in the eastern economic journal he reported the results of the analysis do not support the hypotheses of the naive exponential extrapolative regressive or rational models only the expectations revision model used by meiselman is consistently supported by the stati...
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