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green shaded area living standards makes up the largest contribution to mpi although it s pretty evenly distributed a lack of cooking fuel is a significant driver overall a high level of child mortality is the leading contributor to peru s mpi each country that the researchers look at are broken down like this so i chose to look at peru but go to the site and pick your poison the country breakdowns also include comparisons to the national poverty measure and other measures like living on 2 a day 1 25 a day etc there s a lot to chew on here and plenty more you can find out over at the database but definitely some food for thought i m not sure if this is the best measure and as the example of mexico shows it may be more beneficial to tailor these indexes on a country level although this would sure make comparisons harder what is clear is that how one calculates poverty has a significant impact on the results and it would certainly behoove us all to have a more accurate picture of what poverty is and how to combat it i m sure there are flaws here not the least of which is the outdated data but i commend the researchers at ophi and undp with a solid step in the right direction cartoon from polyp check out the website for more posted by jakob at 10 48 pm 0 comments labels latin america new poverty measures peru poverty undp wonk do financial markets think spain will default sorta but that won t stop the government and european authorities from inflicting pain on their populations in the name of fiscal austerity as i m sure mal adjusted s readers already know spain is the latest object of european sovereign debt fears following greece s lead spain s borrowing costs have increased over the last two months on concerns that the government won t be able to service it s debt and will face a rollover crisis as a consequence the government is moving ahead with large austerity plans cutting spending and raising taxes while unemployment remains above 20 percent advocates of austerity claim that if the government doesn t make tough choices to bring down its deficit and reassure creditors interest rates will spike emerging market style causing the debt to explode spain the argument goes will find itself forced to default on its debt potentially bringing down the whole eurozone with it austerity advocates in other words argue that markets think spain is in danger of defaulting and if we don t heed their warning we ll have serious trouble but first of all that s a stupid anthropomorphism markets don t have agency or thoughts last time i checked but more to the point assuming markets are capable of thinking anything do they actually think spain is in danger of defaulting well one way of answering that question is to use the price of credit default swaps cds on spain s public debt that is how much it costs to insure oneself against the possibility of a default spain implicit probably of default april july 2010 the graph above courtesy of mal adjusted graphs shows the implicit probability of default on spain s government bonds the idea is simple the price of ensuring oneself against a default should reflect the chance of default and how much of their money investors expect to get back in the event of a default i e how big of a haircut bondholders expect in other words the price of a cds should equal the chance of default times the haircut rate the price to insure oneself against default is higher the higher the expected chance of default and the larger the haircut so the orange line above shows the implicit probability of default under a relatively optimistic assumption about the size of expected haircuts in this case i m assuming markets only expect to lose 10 on every 100 worth of bonds as can be seen above under this assumption at the beginning of april markets only thought there was an 11 chance of default but then as all the sovereign debt hysteria surrounding greece started making headlines markets started to think the chance of default was much higher reaching 28 on may 6 but here s the thing this is only the case if markets expect the default to be a very small one getting back 90 of your money when a government defaults is relatively rare in the history of sovereign debt crises so what if we assume spain is like argentina or russia and if the government defaults investors would only get back 30 for every 100 well the yellow line above shows just this scenario and as can be seen the chance of default is really really low in fact the crisis hysteria back in may shows up as nothing but a tiny blip peaking at a terrifying 3 9 so what s the moral of the story the fact of the matter is that if markets really do think a default is likely it s not reflected in market prices which are after all the only coherent measure of what markets think that or they don t expect to take a very big hit in the unlikely event the government decides to default in other words markets either think spain is like argentina but the actual chance of default is really low or they think the chance of default is high but don t expect to actually lose any significant amount of money then do the markets think spain will default sorta should the government heed their warning no but that doesn t mean it can t seriously structurally mal adjust itself to fight imaginary threats in the meantime posted by gringo juan at 12 32 pm 1 comments labels argentina austerity chance of default sovereign debt crisis spain sunday july 18 2010 weekend update shall we begin our journey through the intertubes begins with the 10 year commemoration of beloved plan colombia which was last tuesday wola has the good word despite the popular belief that it has been a success wola writes looked at more closely though colombia s security gains are partial possibly reversible and weighed down by collateral damage they have carried a great cost in lives and resources progress on security has been stagnating and even reversing scandals show that the government carrying out these security policies has harmed human rights and democratic institutions progress against illegal drug supplies has been disappointing and wealth is being concentrated in ever fewer hands check out the link to read the whole report complete with all the statistics complete with pretty charts to back it up in the polling department otto s got the breakdown in peru puts it better than i could so in his own words lord help the world keiko i m not the continuation of fujimori policies fujimori make that fuji freakin mori is ahead with 22 of voter intention second is luis interesting castañeda and third still creeping up is ex pres alejandro toledo who still has my five bucks as most likely winner right now and i m no real fan of his before you say anything sue myrick r nc takes home the wild eyed theory of the week from peter krupa at lat am daily ladies and gentleman your u s congress great post at the mex files on a spanish vocab website that is entertaining and instructing in equal measure check out some hilarious examples or check out the site itself effective swearing in the d f colombia made a totally unsurprising announcement saying there are guerilla camps on the venezuelan side of the border they even gave the coordinates 23 kilometers from the border c mon colombia that s a pretty big remote border i m not impressed i also would disagree with boz that uribe is doing santos a favor by taking the hit right before he leaves office if santos denounces the whole thing and calls for dialogue with chavez directly then maybe he makes out okay but it is pretty unreasonable to think that chavez wouldn t hold santos who was responsible for the raid into ecuador as equally responsible for this there was just no need to make a big public display over this except to do exactly that make a big public display now colombia says they will take it to the oas on thursday if you want to listen to the whole thing you can do it at the oas website might prove entertaining benjamin dangl at upside down world shares his foreward to raul zibechi s book dispersing power social movements as anti state forces recently translated into english to read some recent article s of zibechi s check them out at foreign policy in focus good and bad news out of the case that pitted crude director joe berlinger against chevron another subplot of the 28 billion lawsuit against chevron brought by communities in ecuador s amazon lisa derrick at la figa fdl has the dirty details berlinger still has to hand over footage to chevron but conversations with defendants lawyers and their families are protected the new york times has a long article on cattle ranching drug barons who are destroying parts of the maya biosphere reserve the largest swatch of protected land in central america great article in spanish in la jornada on the reasons why both the national party and liberal party are pushing for zelaya s return to honduras the national party wants to gain recognition from countries other than peru and colombia the liberal party needs him to avoid marginalization and it s the first priority of the resistance who just appointed him coordinator for more on zelaya s relations with the liberal party and the resistance and for all your honduran needs be sure to keep apace with honduras culture and politics in the latest example of the us intervention in central america coming back to haunt them and others the washington post has a long report on how mexican drug cartels are stepping up their use of grenades and where did they find all these grenades from the wapo the administrations of ronald reagan and george h w bush sent 300 000 hand grenades to friendly regimes in central america to fight leftist insurgents in the civil wars of the 1980s and early 1990s according to declassified military data obtained through the freedom of information act by the federation of american scientists and according to the u s bureau of alcohol tobacco firearms and explosives some 90 of the grenades in mexico are at least 20 years old check out the article for more a real interesting article in the economist on brazil becoming one of the world s biggest aid donors like china brazilian aid does not come with western style conditions the head of brazil s development agency explains marco farani the head of abc argues there is a specifically brazilian way of doing aid based on the social programmes that have accompanied its recent economic success brazil has a comparative advantage he says in providing hiv aids treatment to the poor and in conditional cash transfer schemes like bolsa família its tropical agriculture research is among the world s best but brazil also still receives aid so for good or ill its aid programme is eroding the distinction between donors and recipients thus undermining the old system of donor dictated top down aid sounds like a positive development although problems clearly remain as the economist article notes the generally odious andres oppenheimer writes something worth a damn for a change comparing the us denial of a visa for hollman morris to a page right out of the cuba north korea iran playbook most interesting fact from the piece though comes from the pen club a free press group who estimate that about 250 academics journalists and writers had their visa denied between 2001 and the end of the bush administration for ideological reasons finally mad props to argentina who passed a law recognizing same sex marriages last week glenn greenwald has a nice take and relates it to the treatment of the issue in the u s greenwald writes that s what is most striking here this is not happening in some small northern european country renown for its ahead of the curve social progressivism though gay marriage or civil unions are now the norm in western europe just as is true for brazil which i ve written about before with regard to my personal situation argentina is a country with a fairly recent history of dictatorships an overwhelmingly catholic population at least in name and pervasive social conservatism with extreme restrictions on abortion rights similar to those found on much of the continent the catholic church in argentina vehemently opposed the enactment of this law but no matter ending discrimination against same sex couples is understood as a matter of basic equality not social progressivism and it thus commands widespread support for the contrast with the u s check out the link posted by jakob at 3 24 pm 0 comments labels weekend update saturday july 17 2010 warning this movie may contain revolution footage from the san francisco chronicle review of south of the border advisory violence corpses revolution footage really don t want to rile up the youth i suppose image from vencentral posted by jakob at 5 06 pm 0 comments labels movie reviews revolution footage south of the border thursday july 15 2010 who said the press was free this needs no additional commentary from jeremy bigwood writing for nacla buying venezuela s press with u s tax dollars the u s state department is secretly funneling millions of dollars to latin american journalists according to documents obtained in june under the freedom of information act foia the 20 documents released to this author including grant proposals awards and quarterly reports show that between 2007 and 2009 the state department s little known bureau of democracy human rights and labor channeled at least 4 million to journalists in bolivia nicaragua and venezuela through the pan american development foundation padf a washington based grant maker that has worked in latin america since 1962 thus far only documents pertaining to venezuela have been released they reveal that the padf collaborating with venezuelan ngos associated with the country s political opposition has been supplied with at least 700 000 to give out journalism grants and sponsor journalism education programs until now the state department has hidden its role in funding the venezuelan news media one of the opposition s most powerful weapons against president hugo chávez and his bolivarian movement the padf serving as an intermediary effectively removed the government s fingerprints from the money yet as noted in a state department document titled bureau program specific requirements the state department s own policies require that all publications funded by the department acknowledge the support but the provision was simply waived for the padf for the purposes of this award the requirements document adds the recipient is not required to publicly acknowledge the support of the u s department of state before 2007 the largest funder of u s democracy promotion activities in venezuela was not the state department but the u s agency for international development usaid together with the national endowment for democracy ned but in 2005 these organizations underhanded funding was exposed by venezuelan american attorney eva golinger in a series of articles books and...
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