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economy better for those who need it most then everyone even those we are helping still have to cope with our failing economy live long and prosper google identifies three distinct periods of prosperity in the last 100 years or so the roaring 20s the golden age that followed world war two and the new economy of the latter 1990s and early 2000s each of those prosperous periods appears as an uptrend in the line on the graph below in each case prosperity begins almost as soon as the line starts showing a persistent increase in each case also prosperity comes to an end around the time the persistent increase comes to an end there is a strong connection between prosperity and the data shown on the graph the graph shows the amount of private debt in the economy per dollar of public debt the orange line shows data from the bicentennial edition of the historical statistics the blue line uses the fred data from the alfred archives times of prosperity begin when the private to public debt ratio is relatively low they end when the ratio is relatively high in other words times of prosperity do not begin until the ratio is low enough and do not end until the ratio is getting too high prosperity begins when the ratio is low but other conditions also vary so prosperity may begin at a higher low or a lower low prosperity ends when the ratio is high but again other conditions vary and this affects the level at which prosperity fails two times out of three on the graph above the prosperity ended painfully once with the great depression and once with the great recession something to keep in mind times of prosperity are times when private sector debt is growing faster than public sector debt that is what makes the line go up this makes sense i think because a vigorous private sector is the source of prosperity we can think of the graph as showing a prosperity cycle like the business cycle but longer times of prosperity are like times of growth times without prosperity are like times of recession our time is such a time in such times public debt grows faster than private debt it is necessary i believe to have times when public debt grows faster than private only in such times does the line on the graph fall to a low point where prosperity can resume this is why our efforts to reduce federal spending and balance federal budgets have been failing since the 1970s as the graph shows public debt must increase more rapidly than private debt to bring the line down so that prosperity can resume unfortunately we have been trying for years to create prosperity by slowing the growth of public debt as the graph shows our efforts were doomed to fail most people and most economists i think see cutting government spending and debt as the way to fix our economy some economists and maybe a few other people see expanding government spending and debt as the way to fix it both groups need to focus not on government data alone but on the ratio of private to public we need to get the ratio low enough to kick start prosperity cutting government spending and debt makes the ratio higher that is the wrong solution increasing government spending and debt will make the ratio lower which is what we need but we have been trying to do that for 50 years with very little success the only prosperity we had since the 1970s came in the latter 1990s and yes federal deficits got smaller in those years but the smaller deficits were more the result than the cause of that prosperity because of the savings loan crisis 1985 1995 private debt grew slowly slow private debt growth worked the way rapid public debt growth would causing an decrease in the private to public ratio it was several years of slow growth of private sector debt that pushed the private to public ratio down enough to permit the rise of prosperity one last point three bullet points in a businessinsider article at msn new student loan forgiveness under trump is coming here s what borrowers should know the trump administration said it is processing student loan forgiveness for some borrowers on income based repayment eligible borrowers received emails stating that they are expected to receive relief in the coming months the ongoing government shutdown could cause delays the timeline is now months plus delays at october 21 2025 13 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest monday october 20 2025 hume on the arbitrary power of tyrannical government the excerpt below is from fee the foundation for economic education from david hume believed in the miracle of commerce by richard m ebeling my remarks appear on the white background the fee excerpt my response david hume emphasized that commerce and trade were among the most important avenues to offer opportunities to raise people s standards of living and to bring refinement and cultural betterment to a growing portion of a nation s population i accept hume s view that commerce and trade did offer good opportunities for people to improve their living standards in the 1750s when he wrote about it there are still opportunities today commerce also served as an important leveler of the material inequality of a society based on political privilege and government bestowed monopoly through trade a wider variety and quality of goods became available to a growing number of the people in any society fostering the development of a middle class i do not dispute hume s view that commerce played a powerful role in reducing inequality in the 1750s and for many decades thereafter but the us middle class has been shrinking for half a century now at the same time growing wealth among more and more members of society acted as a means to restrain and weaken the arbitrary power of tyrannical governments as a larger percentage of the population had the means to free themselves from government dependency and control the growth and distribution of wealth helped to keep the arbitrary power of tyrannical governments at bay for generations but in our time failing growth and the concentration of wealth have encouraged tyranny and the abuse of power government dependency and control or as hume expressed it in his essay of the refinement in the arts but where luxury nourishes commerce and industry the peasants by a proper cultivation of the land become rich and independent while the tradesmen and merchants acquire a share of the property and draw authority and consideration to that middling rank of men who are the best and firmest basis of public liberty the decline of the middle class the middling rank hume says brings with it the decline of the best and firmest basis of public liberty these submit not to slavery like the peasants from poverty and meanness of spirit and having no hopes of tyrannizing over others like the barons they are not tempted for the sake of that gratification to submit to the tyranny of their sovereign they covet equal laws which may secure their property and preserve them from monarchical as well as aristocratical tyranny that is the best paragraph in the excerpt the best in the post and hume wrote it about us the middle class and those who want to take back our place in the middle class governments and special interest groups hume feared are always want to use and abuse political authority and influence to gain much for themselves at the expense of the ordinary or common members of society and as a society grows in wealth there is more for the government to siphon off through taxes for its own purposes and for interested groups to use the state to plunder and manipulate but with the emergence of a middle class that is increasingly supporting itself through commerce and industry they have the financial means to resist these encroachments by the state or as hume said in his essay of commerce so the luxury of the individuals must diminish the force and check the ambition of the sovereign at october 20 2025 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest friday october 17 2025 hume quoted by keynes it is of no manner of consequence with regard to the domestic happiness of a state whether money be in a greater or less quantity the good policy of the magistrate consists only in keeping it if possible still increasing because by that means he keeps alive a spirit of industry in the nation and increases the state of labour in which consists all real power and riches essay on money 1752 from a footnote in chapter 23 of the general theory graph 1 the quantity of transaction money per dollar s worth of output the low before the great recession runs from 2004 to 2009 graph from mine of november 28 2024 at october 17 2025 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest wednesday october 15 2025 last chapter first sentence the outstanding faults of the economic society in which we live are its failure to provide for full employment and its arbitrary and inequitable distribution of wealth and incomes j m keynes 1936 at october 15 2025 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest sunday september 28 2025 i hate windows 11 change for the sake of change and more advertising of microsoft products every time i load a page at september 28 2025 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest friday september 26 2025 i had to walk up the escalator once or twice in my life it s not such a problem really it s like walking up stairs at september 26 2025 2 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest thursday september 25 2025 economic decline the phrase economic decline occurs increasingly in google books from the early 1970s to the early 1990s these dates match two decades of low productivity of the us economy usage of the phrase declines from the early 1990s to 2008 the period that contains the high productivity new economy greenspan talked about that period that ended with the financial crisis usage of the phrase increases from 2008 to 2015 a good match to the years the fed held interest rates at zero things were improving at a snail s pace give or take after 2015 things were improving enough you could see improvement trump took credit for that improvement and he still does today i credit the decline of private sector debt at september 25 2025 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest older posts home subscribe to posts atom why economists must think in terms of the cycle of civilization i ve been hearing the phrase late capitalism for so long that i m forced to conclude that the very concept of late cap looks like vigor to me went to harbor freight the other day when i left there was so much traffic i had to fight my way out of the parking lot at one p m on let s see if this one gets me into trouble as i write this it is mid october in an even numbered year elections are weeks away yesterday i saw republican candidates heavily adver not the rate of interest but the cost of finance not inflation but the decline of growth it is surely true that the price level cannot rise without a corresponding increase in the quantity of money or velocity or use of credit the most important difference between cost push and demand pull inflation i m not a fan of diagrams in economics but sometimes this is a screen capture of slide 36 from a slideshare presentatio federal debt is the measure of economic troubles in the private sector not the cause of them the cause is excessive private sector debt private debt is too big and too costly it slows the economy it slows income growth it makes decent jobs scarce we lost our greatness to excessive private sector debt we can regain american greatness by reducing private debt if we do so before china has all the greatness note that we have many policies to encourage the use of credit and no policies to encourage repayment of debt selected fred data free ebooks forever fadedpage levy institute publications art s old vigor page click folder tab to view contents quick quotes on debt sbt hover for the quote click for the source steve keen sbe thomas palley sbe palley again same source sbe arthurian spontaneous sbe arthurian sbe id a j toynbee a study of history unabridged vol 1 page 1 abridgement vol 1 thru 10 id mostly old cost push stuff 1937 the general theory of employment 1958 the phillips curve paper 1959 charles schultze recent inflation in the united states 1960 richard lipsey on the phillips curve 1960 samuelson and solow problem of achieving and maintaining a stable price level 1962 arthur okun potential gdp its measurement and significance 1968 friedman s presidential address the role of monetary policy or alt link 1970 milton friedman the counter revolution in monetary theory 1974 f a hayek prize lecture the pretense of knowledge 1977 thomas m humphrey on cost push theories of inflation in the pre war monetary literature id papers by johannes a schwarzer sbt samuelson and solow on the phillips curve and the menu of choice a retrospective 2013 sbe growth as an objective of economic policy in the early 1960s the role of aggregate demand 2014 sbe price stability versus full employment the phillips curve dilemma reconsidered 2016 sbe retrospectives cost push and demand pull inflation milton friedman and the cruel dilemma 2018 sbe id papers by norikazu takami 1950s cost push sbt baffling inflation cost push inflation theories in the late 1950s united states 2014 sbe the baffling new inflation how cost push inflation theories influenced policy debate in the late 1950s united states 2015 sbe id archive org links sbt archive org home sbe note at archive org the upper right corner search is for all of archive org to search the open book click the search icon on the left side of the window and use quotes around search phrases sbe historical statistics thru 1970 part 1 arrighi g the long twentieth century dalio r economic principles how the economic machine works delong h a profile of mathematical logic r c k ensor england 1870 1914 finley m i the ancient economy friedman m free to choose friedman m money mischief kissinger h the meaning of history reflections on spengler toynbee and kant leuchtenburg w franklin d roosevelt and the new deal leuchtenburg w the perils of prosperity lot ferdinand the end of the ancient world and the beginnings of the middle ages montagu a toynbee and history critical essays and reviews mullineux a w business cycles and financial crises quigley the evolution of civilizations rostovtzeff the social and economic history of the roman empire terborgh george the new economics tooke thomas an inquiry into the currency principle toynbee aj a study of history volumes i vi abridged wanniski jude the way the world works sbe id timelines industrial capitalism sbe mercantile capitalism sbe 10000 years of economy sbe id blog themes and on the pedestal these words appear my name is ozymandias king of kings look on my works y...
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