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100 in in this case 2012 to my eye the indexing suggests that the manufacturing decline wasn t really so bad because it fell to the same level as the other measures of labor share not below it that s bullshit of course because to see it that way you have to start in 2012 and work backwards if you really want to see how things change you index them at the starting point rather than near the end if you were to print out graph 2 and cut out the red line and then slide it down the page until the start of the red line just touches the blue line you d get a better feel for the decline of labor share in manufacturing or do it this way graph 3 labor share for nonfinancial corporations relocated manufacturing sector each mfg value divided by the mfg value for 1987 multiplied by the nfc value for 1987q1 here things look much worse for manufacturing this is a more honest picture i think oh the manufacturing line ends in 2017 in case you were wondering at february 26 2020 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest sunday february 23 2020 some say regulation some say debt i say debt i don t say much about regulation so there needn t be much animosity aroused but it does seem to me that deregulating finance is part of the reason debt became a problem there are other reasons like all of our policies that encourage credit use and discourage repayment of debt those are the real problem at february 23 2020 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest saturday february 22 2020 accumulation jw mason s recent post links to his 8 page pdf on how marxists think about capital and capitalism this part got my attention right away the answer is capital is an ongoing process where money is used to acquire tools and raw materials the means of production and to hire wage labor the hired labor works with the tools and materials under the direction of the capitalist to make more goods for sale with the goal of acquiring more money people sometimes think of capital as money or as machinery buildings etc but in this perspective it isn t either of those things first reaction i like it mason also writes from the list above we can see that a number of conditions have to come together for capital to exist first we need private property and markets second we need wage labor third we need an employer who controls the production process fourth we need goods produced for sale rather than for the use of the producer and finally we need accumulation the endless pursuit of more money to be a goal in itself and finally we need accumulation to be a goal in itslf yes that reminded me of something i said job creation was never more than a method which enabled accumulation to proceed for mason the idea comes from marx for me it comes from adam smith as soon as stock has accumulated in the hands of particular persons some of them will naturally employ it in setting to work industrious people whom they will supply with materials and subsistence in order to make a profit by the sale of their work as the cycle of civilization brings us ever closer to the end of the capitalist era it is important to remember how that era began at february 22 2020 1 comment email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest thursday february 20 2020 the key to a good economy lies in maintaining the affordability of debt originally posted 20 feb 2013 on my old blog streamlined updated and re titled and this time i finish the thought ours is a world that relies on credit to grow the economy yet somehow we think private debt can never be a problem what s that not we you say good i m with you the good economic growth of the 1950s and 60s was fostered by the growth of private debt in the early 1960s private debt was still relatively low and not much of a problem but by 1970 debt had accumulated enough that the rising cost of debt service engendered a great inflation despite the inflation or because of it maybe economic growth was vigorous in the 1970s but the inflation was unacceptable the fight against inflation created a series of recessions and reduced the decade average growth rate today people think growth was slow in the 1970s in the 1980s monetary accommodation by the federal reserve went out the window in its place we saw increased federal spending and bigger deficits the economic growth of the 1980s was fostered by rapid increase of the federal debt then we had two decades of growth fostered by excessive private debt and a day of reckoning in 2008 because we use credit for growth the key to a good economy lies in maintaining the affordability of debt when debt was relatively low it was affordable while inflation was high erosion of debt kept the growing debt relatively low and affordable when federal debt growth was rapid the federal spending provided funds to make the growing private debt affordable but when it came down to depending on private debt growth to make private debt affordable it was a suicide mission today debt is high inflation is low and federal debt growth is seen as a problem no method remains to make private debt affordable and our economy cannot grow we use credit for growth i think we have to use credit for growth but using credit creates debt and debt eventually becomes a problem what s the solution obviously the solution is not to pretend that the accumulation of debt can never be a problem the solution is to pay debt down faster than we do pay down private debt faster so that it doesn t accumulate enough to hinder economic growth in the private sector to accelerate debt repayment we could change the tax code to make the tax rate go up for someone with a lot of debt with a provision that the tax rate comes back down for people who make extra payments on their debt during the tax year also since debt is already at a problem level for the economy we should have tax credits that are equal in value to the extra payments we make just until debt gets down to a workable level and the economy starts humming one other thing money should come more from government and less from the banks and let s be sure it is money not credit you can tell the difference because if you have to pay it back with interest it s credit if you have to pay it back at all it s credit the alternative to borrowing money of course is earning it so what i m saying really is that we need less borrowing and higher wages higher wages raise business costs and push prices up but they don t have to we got into this problem in the first place because growing financial costs crowded out wages corporate compensation of employees fell by 5 percentage points between 1948 and 1975 while corporate interest costs increased by nearly the same amount source the new arthurian economics the solution is to reverse the 1948 1981 trend and let wages crowd out financial cost the goal behind these thoughts is to keep financial cost down in the private sector so that the private sector is able to grow with vigor that s really what we want isn t it some people badmouth the idea of better growth but economic growth means income growth and everybody wants more income at february 20 2020 1 comment email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest tuesday february 18 2020 tyrants victor ehrenberg from solon to socrates from hesiod onward oppression and injustice were causes of growing complaint the community needed a stronger supreme authority a unified domestic and foreign policy and above all social peace and economic prosperity in various cities the opportunity was seized by individual leaders strong personalities who gained power by usurpation the greeks called them tyrants hesiod wikipedia hesiod was a greek poet generally thought by scholars to have been active between 750 and 650 bc around the same time as homer encyclopædia britannica in the 10th and 9th centuries bce monarchy was the usual form of government in the greek states the aristocratic regimes that replaced monarchy were by the 7th century bce themselves unpopular thus the opportunity arose for ambitious men to seize power in the name of the oppressed the tyrants often sprang from the fringe of the aristocracy for example the mother of cypselus belonged to the ruling clan of the bacchiads but his father did not the nature of the public discontent that provided them with a following may have varied from place to place the great tyrants were notable patrons of the arts and conspicuous builders they often aided in the transition from narrow aristocracy to more democratic constitutions but the greeks in principle chafed under their illegal autocracy tyranny thus early acquired a bad name that was then steve levine at axios 2018 unforced by coup or war one developed country after another has chosen an authoritarian style of democracy over the last two years an all but unforeseen shift that has left more mainstream leaders scrambling to understand it and turn back time the big picture economics ultimately underpins the turmoil if we fix the economic problem our political problems will evaporate at february 18 2020 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest sunday february 16 2020 two pages from the lessons of history just two pages required reading from google books click this text to proceed at february 16 2020 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest friday february 14 2020 how s trump doing the last quarter inch on the right on the graphs after what i ve been hearing in the news i was surprised to see the federal debt running almost flat in the trump years graph 1 gross federal debt as a percent of gross domestic product our slow economic growth pushes the ratio up so trump years debt is not growing much at all certainly nothing like the skyrocket of 2008 2010 which was a response to the financial crisis but also nothing like the increase of the 1980s from the news reports i thought trump might be following reagan s plan that s apparently not the case next graph debt other than federal relative to the federal debt graph 2 non federal debt relative to federal debt it seems we ve settled into a gradual decline non federal debt is growing more slowly than the federal debt but not much actually the slope looks about the same since 2014 as from 1974 to 1994 when productivity was down and the economy was not perky that s too bad it means we can look forward to a listless economy if the ratio was running uphill as it did from 1994 to 2000 and in the years before 1974 we could expect a strong vigorous economy don t hold your breath at february 14 2020 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest wednesday february 12 2020 well the day wasn t a total waste searching debt service at fred i came upon households and nonprofit organizations debt service payments fsis flow whoa what s that i asked myself i think it s debt service in billions the one i always figure by working backwards from debt service as percent of dpi yup the yellow line is mine the way i always figure it the black line is the one i just found at fred i made the black line wide as you can see my line runs right down the middle of theirs my debt service in billions yellow and fred s in millions 1000 same same easier to see if you click the graph to enlarge it at february 12 2020 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest tuesday february 11 2020 americans don t see economy as a nation s most important problem tim taylor the gallup poll regularly asks about what people see as the nation s most important problem the share of people mentioning economic issues has been plummeting from as high as 86 back in the great recession of 2009 down to 11 12 at present the lowest level of concern over economic issues in the 21th century taylor s conclusion of course the real world economy will always have issues and problems but given that the previous recession ended more than a decade ago in june 2009 and the unemployment rate has been 4 or lower since march 2018 it makes perfect sense that economic issues should not be at the top of the current worry list makes perfect sense he says but incomes are still down and economic growth is still low and debt is still high and vigor is still absent what makes perfect sense to me is that people are just getting used to living in this shitty economy we ve mellowed since the crisis but nothing has been fixed at february 11 2020 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest monday february 10 2020 like the stopped clock sometimes we are right timothy taylor 2 january 2020 a century ago john f carter wrote an essay about these wild young people by one of them in the atlantic monthly september 1920 pp 301 304 an excerpt is here although as far as i know the entire essay isn t freely available online it offers a useful reminder that complaints from young adults about the terrible world they are inheriting so much worse than any previous generation ever inherited are nothing new mortimer chambers in the introduction to the fall of rome the fall was foreseen and recorded by contemporaries at february 10 2020 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest sunday february 9 2020 how the game is played the explanation of wage push inflation as i imagine it is simple we demand higher wages we get higher wages which increases costs to our employer so he raises his prices this increases the cost of living so we demand wages that are even higher we get another wage increase and the cycle continues there are two teams the employers and the employees the errs and the eees playing king of the hill whoever takes the hill receives an increase and whoever loses the hill will fight to take it back so as to receive another increase it s a good story but it s not the only story in town i tell the story of the king of the hill game with three teams the errs the eees and the fins the fins are a quiet bunch they don t even want to be king of the hill and they will help anyone who wants to make it to the top for a small fee they don t take sides either the fins if you stand back and watch the game you ll see fins helping errs up the hill you ll see fins helping eees up the hill and if you watch carefully you ll see fins making a little money no matter who gets to the top of the hill as the game progresses the errs and the eees come to realize how good it is to have fins helping them up the hill so they start using teams of fins to get them to the top of the hill of course using a team of fins costs more than using just one but both the errs and the eees think the extra cost is worth it as time goes by the teams get bigger and the cost of the fins increases everyone has lots of fins helping them up the hill and everyone realizes they need the fins everyone knows that if you give up your f...
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