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red germany for its economic successes and social welfare provision but also regarded germany as illiberal militaristic and technocratic 132 war was seen as a natural and viable or even useful instrument of policy war was compared to a tonic for a sick patient or a life saving operation to cut out diseased flesh 130 since war was natural for some leaders it was simply a question of timing and so it would be better to have a war when the circumstances were most propitious i consider a war inevitable declared moltke in 1912 the sooner the better 133 in german ruling circles war was viewed as the only way to rejuvenate germany russia was viewed as growing stronger every day and it was believed that germany had to strike while it still could before it was crushed by russia 134 nationalism made war a competition between peoples nations or races rather than kings and elites 135 social darwinism carried a sense of inevitability to conflict and downplayed the use of diplomacy or international agreements to end warfare it tended to glorify warfare the taking of initiative and the warrior male role 136 social darwinism played an important role across europe but j leslie has argued that it played a critical and immediate role in the strategic thinking of some important hawkish members of the austro hungarian government 137 social darwinism therefore normalized war as an instrument of policy and justified its use citation needed arms race edit french and german troop dispositions along their common border 1913 by the 1870s to 1880s all the major powers were preparing for a large scale war although none expected one 138 britain neglected its small army but focused on building up the royal navy which was already stronger than the next two largest navies combined germany france austria italy russia and some smaller countries set up conscription systems in which young men would serve from one to three years in the army and then spend the next twenty years or so in the reserves with annual summer training men with higher social status became officers each country devised a mobilization system to call up reserves quickly and send them to key points by rail citation needed every year general staffs updated and expanded their plans in terms of complexity each country stockpiled arms and supplies for an army that ran into the millions germany in 1874 had a regular professional army of 420 000 with an additional 1 3 million reserves by 1897 the regular army was 545 000 strong and the reserves 3 4 million the french in 1897 had 3 4 million reservists austria 2 6 million and russia 4 0 million the size of military manpower increased conscription law changes in france in 1913 for example boosted numbers in the french military on the eve of conflict 139 the various national war plans had been perfected by 1914 but with russia and austria trailing in effectiveness recent wars since 1865 had typically been short a matter of months all war plans called for a decisive opening and assumed victory would come after a short war none planned for the food and munitions needs of the long stalemate that actually unfolded from 1914 to 1918 140 141 as david stevenson puts it a self reinforcing cycle of heightened military preparedness was an essential element in the conjuncture that led to disaster the armaments race was a necessary precondition for the outbreak of hostilities david herrmann goes further by arguing that the fear that windows of opportunity for victorious wars were closing meaning that the arms race did precipitate the first world war if the assassination of franz ferdinand had occurred in 1904 or even in 1911 herrmann speculates there might have been no war it was the armaments race and the speculation about imminent or preventive wars that made his death in 1914 the trigger for war 142 one of the aims of the first hague conference of 1899 held at the suggestion of emperor nicholas ii of russia was to discuss disarmament the second hague conference took place in 1907 all signatories except for germany supported disarmament germany also did not want to agree to binding arbitration and mediation the kaiser was concerned that the united states would propose disarmament measures which he opposed all parties tried to revise international law to their own advantage 143 anglo german naval race edit main article anglo german naval arms race 1909 cartoon in the american magazine puck shows clockwise us germany britain france and japan engaged in naval race in a no limit game historians have debated the role of the german naval buildup as the principal cause of deteriorating anglo german relations in any case germany never came close to catching up with britain citation needed supported by wilhelm ii s enthusiasm for an expanded german navy grand admiral alfred von tirpitz championed four fleet acts from 1898 to 1912 from 1902 to 1910 britain s royal navy embarked on its own massive expansion to keep ahead of the germans the competition came to focus on the revolutionary new ships based on the design of dreadnought which was launched in 1906 and gave britain a battleship that far outclassed any other in europe 144 145 naval strength of powers in 1914 country personnel large naval vessels dreadnoughts tonnage russia 54 000 4 328 000 france 68 000 10 731 000 britain 209 000 29 2 205 000 total 331 000 43 3 264 000 germany 79 000 17 1 019 000 austria hungary 16 000 4 249 000 total 95 000 21 1 268 000 source 146 the overwhelming british response proved to germany that its efforts were unlikely ever to equal those of the royal navy in 1900 the british had a 3 7 1 tonnage advantage over germany in 1910 the ratio was 2 3 1 and in 1914 it reached 2 1 1 ferguson argues so decisive was the british victory in the naval arms race that it is hard to regard it as in any meaningful sense a cause of the first world war 147 however the kaiserliche marine had narrowed the gap by nearly half and that the royal navy had had a long standing policy of surpassing any two potential opponents combined the us navy was in a period of growth which made the german gains seem very ominous in london citation needed in britain in 1913 there was intense internal debate about new ships because of the growing influence of admiral john fisher s ideas and increasing financial constraints in 1914 germany adopted a policy of building submarines instead of new dreadnoughts and destroyers effectively abandoning the naval arms race but berlin kept the new policy secret to delay other powers from following suit 148 russian interests in the balkans and the ottoman empire edit major russian goals included strengthening saint petersburg s role as the protector of eastern christians in the balkans such as in serbia 149 although russia enjoyed a booming economy growing population and large armed forces its strategic position was threatened by an expanding ottoman military trained by german experts and using the latest technology the start of the war re focussed attention on old russian goals expelling the ottomans from constantinople extending russian dominion into eastern anatolia and persian azerbaijan and annexing galicia conquest of the straits would have assured russian predominance in the black sea and russian access to the mediterranean 150 technical and military factors edit short war illusion edit traditional narratives of the war suggested that when the war began both sides believed that the war would end quickly rhetorically speaking there was an expectation that the war would be over by christmas in 1914 that is important for the origins of the conflict since it suggests that since it was expected that the war would be short statesmen tended not to take gravity of military action as seriously as they might have done otherwise modern historians suggest a nuanced approach there is ample evidence to suggest that statesmen and military leaders thought the war would be lengthy and terrible and have profound political consequences citation needed while it is true all military leaders planned for a swift victory many military and civilian leaders recognized that the war might be long and highly destructive citation needed the principal german and french military leaders including moltke ludendorff and joffre expected a long war 151 british secretary of state for war lord kitchener expected a long war three years or longer he told an amazed colleague citation needed moltke hoped that if a european war broke out it would be resolved swiftly but he also conceded that it might drag on for years wreaking immeasurable ruin asquith wrote of the approach of armageddon and french and russian generals spoke of a war of extermination and the end of civilization british foreign secretary edward grey famously stated just hours before britain declared war the lamps are going out all over europe we shall not see them lit again in our lifetime citation needed clark concluded in the minds of many statesmen the hope for a short war and the fear of a long one seemed to have cancelled each other out holding at bay a fuller appreciation of the risks 152 primacy of offensive and war by timetable edit see also cult of the offensive moltke joffre conrad and other military commanders held that seizing the initiative was extremely important that theory encouraged all belligerents to devise war plans to strike first to gain the advantage the war plans all included complex plans for mobilization of the armed forces either as a prelude to war or as a deterrent the continental great powers mobilization plans included arming and transporting millions of men and their equipment typically by rail and to strict schedules citation needed the mobilization plans limited the scope of diplomacy as military planners wanted to begin mobilisation as quickly as possible to avoid being caught on the defensive they also put pressure on policymakers to begin their own mobilization once it was discovered that other nations had begun to mobilize citation needed in 1969 a j p taylor wrote that mobilization schedules were so rigid that once they were begun they could not be canceled without massive disruption of the country and military disorganisation and they could not proceed without physical invasion of belgium by germany thus diplomatic overtures conducted after the mobilizations had begun were ignored 153 hence the metaphor war by timetable russia ordered a partial mobilization on 25 july against austria hungary only their lack of prewar planning for the partial mobilization made the russians realize by 29 july that it would be impossible to interfere with a general mobilization citation needed only a general mobilization could be carried out successfully the russians were therefore faced with only two options canceling the mobilization during a crisis or moving to full mobilization the latter of which they did on 30 july they therefore mobilized along both the russian border with austria hungary and the border with germany citation needed german mobilization plans assumed a two front war against france and russia and had the bulk of the german army massed against france and taking the offensive in the west and a smaller force holding east prussia the plans were based on the assumption that france would mobilize significantly faster than russia citation needed on 28 july germany learned through its spy network that russia had implemented partial mobilisation and its period preparatory to war the germans assumed that russia had decided upon war and that its mobilisation put germany in danger especially since because german war plans the so called schlieffen plan relied upon germany to mobilise speedily enough to defeat france first by attacking largely through neutral belgium before it turned to defeat the slower moving russians citation needed christopher clark states german efforts at mediation which suggested that austria should halt in belgrade and use the occupation of the serbian capital to ensure its terms were met were rendered futile by the speed of russian preparations which threatened to force the germans to take counter measures before mediation could begin to take effect 154 clark also states the germans declared war on russia before the russians declared war on germany but by the time that happened the russian government had been moving troops and equipment to the german front for a week the russians were the first great power to issue an order of general mobilisation and the first russo german clash took place on german not on russian soil following the russian invasion of east prussia that doesn t mean that the russians should be blamed for the outbreak of war rather it alerts us to the complexity of the events that brought war about and the limitations of any thesis that focuses on the culpability of one actor 155 historiography edit main article historiography of the causes of world war i louis p bénézet s map of europe as it should be 1918 depicting imagined nations based on ethnic and linguistic criteria it blamed german aggression on perceived threats to the traditional social order from radicals and ethnic nationalists immediately after the end of hostilities anglo american historians argued that germany was solely responsible for the start of the war however academic work in the english speaking world in the late 1920s and the 1930s blamed the participants more equally meanwhile german academics also challenged the claim that germany was solely or primarily to blame citation needed in the 1960s the german historian fritz fischer challenged prevailing german academic opinion by arguing that germany s conservative leaders had deliberately sought war this in turn unleashed an intense worldwide debate on imperial germany s long term goals the american historian paul schroeder agrees with the critics that fisher exaggerated and misinterpreted many points however schroeder endorses fisher s basic conclusion from 1890 on germany did pursue world power this bid arose from deep roots within germany s economic political and social structures once the war broke out world power became germany s essential goal 156 however schroeder argues that all of that was not the main cause of the war in 1914 indeed the search for a single main cause is not a helpful approach to history instead there are multiple causes any one or two of which could have launched the war he argues the fact that so many plausible explanations for the outbreak of the war have been advanced over the years indicates on the one hand that it was massively overdetermined and on the other that no effort to analyze the causal factors involved can ever fully succeed 157 debate over the country that started the war and who bears the blame still continues 158 according to annika mombauer a new consensus among scholars had emerged by the 1980s mainly as a result of fischer s intervention few historians agreed wholly with his fischer s thesis 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