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description= 15 posts published by Lars Syll during January 2016;
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xplanation also known as a covering law explanation we would try to explain why robert lucas believes in reh with the help of the two premises in this case actually giving an explanation with very little explanatory value these kinds of explanations both in their deterministic and statistic probabilistic versions rely heavily on deductive entailment from assumed to be true premises but they have preciously little to say on where these assumed to be true premises come from deductive logic of confirmation and explanation may work well given that they are used in deterministic closed models in mathematics the deductive axiomatic method has worked just fine but science is not mathematics conflating those two domains of knowledge has been one of the most fundamental mistakes made in the science of economics applying it to real world systems however immediately proves it to be excessively narrow and hopelessly irrelevant both the confirmatory and explanatory ilk of hypothetico deductive reasoning fails since there is no way you can relevantly analyze confirmation or explanation as a purely logical relation between hypothesis and evidence or between law like rules and explananda in science we argue and try to substantiate our beliefs and hypotheses with reliable evidence proportional and predicate deductive logic on the other hand is not about reliability but the validity of the conclusions given that the premises are true deduction and the inferences that goes with it is an example of explicative reasoning where the conclusions we make are already included in the premises deductive inferences are purely analytical and it is this truth preserving nature of deduction that makes it different from all other kinds of reasoning but it is also its limitation since truth in the deductive context does not refer to a real world ontology only relating propositions as true or false within a formal logic system and as an argument scheme is totally non ampliative the output of the analysis is nothing else than the input continue reading deduction induction abduction share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky new keynesian dsge models 24 jan 2016 at 10 28 posted in economics 2 comments in the model gali smets and wouters unemployment in an estimated new keyesian mode l 2011 there is perfect consumption insurance among the members of the household because of separability in utility this implies that consumption is equalized across all workers whether they are employed or not workers who find that they do not have to work are unemployed or out of the labor force and they have cause to rejoice as a result unemployed workers enjoy higher utility than the employed because they receive the same level of consumption but without having to work there is much evidence that in practice unemployment is not the happy experience it is for workers in the model for example chetty and looney 2006 and gruber 1997 find that us households suffer roughly a 10 percent drop in consumption when they lose their job according to couch and placzek 2010 workers displaced through mass layoffs suffer substantial and extended reductions in earnings moreover oreopoulos page and stevens 2008 present evidence that the children of displaced workers also suffer reduced earnings additional evidence that unemployed workers suffer a reduction in utility include the results of direct interviews as well as findings that unemployed workers experience poor health outcomes clark and oswald 1994 oswald 1997 and schimmack schupp and wagner 2008 describe evidence that suggests unemployment has a negative impact on a worker s self assessment of well being sullivan and von wachter 2009 report that the mortality rates of high seniority workers jump 50 100 more than would have been expected otherwise in the year after displacement cox and koo 2006 report a significant positive correlation between male suicide and unemployment in japan and the united states for additional evidence that unemployment is associated with poor health outcomes see fergusson horwood and lynskey 1997 and karsten and moser 2009 suppose the cps current population survey employee encountered one of the people designated as unemployed and asked if she were available for work what would her answer be she knows with certainty that she will not be employed in the current period privately she is delighted about this because the non employed enjoy higher utility than the employed not only is she happy about not having to work but the labor union also does not want her to work from the perspective of the union her non employment is a fundamental component of the union s strategy for promoting the welfare of its membership lawrence j christiano to me these kind of new keynesian dsge models where unemployment is portrayed as a bliss are a sign of a momentous failure to model real world unemployment it s not only adding insult to injury it s also sad gibberish that shamelessly tries to whitewash neoliberal economic policies that put people out of work all empirical sciences use simplifying or unrealistic assumptions in their modeling activities that is not the issue as long as the assumptions made are not unrealistic in the wrong way or for the wrong reasons theories are difficult to directly confront with reality economists therefore build models of their theories those models are representations that are directly examined and manipulated to indirectly say something about the target systems but models do not only face theory they also have to look to the world being able to model a credible dsge world how credible that world is when depicting unemployment as a happy experience and predicting the wage markup to increase with unemployment i leave to the reader to decide a world that somehow could be considered real or similar to the real world is not the same as investigating the real world even though all theories are false since they simplify they may still possibly serve our pursuit of truth but then they cannot be unrealistic or false in any way the falsehood or unrealisticness has to be qualified the final court of appeal for macroeconomic models is the real world and as long as no convincing justification is put forward for how the inferential bridging from models to reality de facto is made macroeconomic model building is little more than hand waving that gives us rather little warrant for making inductive inferences from models to real world target systems if substantive questions about the real world are being posed it is the formalistic mathematical representations utilized to analyze them that have to match reality not the other way around on the non neutrality of money 23 jan 2016 at 14 29 posted in economics 1 comment paul krugman has repeatedly over the years argued that we should continue to use neoclassical hobby horses like is lm and aggregate supply aggregate demand models here s one example so why do as ad we do want somewhere along the way to get across the notion of the self correcting economy the notion that in the long run we may all be dead but that we also have a tendency to return to full employment via price flexibility or to put it differently you do want somehow to make clear the notion which even fairly keynesian guys like me share that money is neutral in the long run i doubt that keynes would have been impressed by having his theory being characterized with catchwords like tendency to return to full employment and money is neutral in the long run one of keynes s central tenets in clear contradistinction to the beliefs of neoclassical economists is that there is no strong automatic tendency for economies to move toward full employment levels in monetary economies money doesn t matter in neoclassical macroeconomic models that s true but in the real world in which we happen to live money does certainly matter money is not neutral and money matters in both the short run and the long run the theory which i desiderate would deal with an economy in which money plays a part of its own and affects motives and decisions and is in short one of the operative factors in the situation so that the course of events cannot be predicted in either the long period or in the short without a knowledge of the behaviour of money between the first state and the last and it is this which we ought to mean when we speak of a monetary economy j m keynes a monetary theory of production 1933 fadime sahindal 21 jan 2016 at 09 02 posted in politics society comments off on fadime sahindal till fadime sahindal född 2 april 1975 i turkiet mördad 21 januari 2002 i sverige i sverige har vi länge okritiskt omhuldat en ospecificerad och odefinierad mångkulturalism om vi med mångkulturalism menar att det med kulturell tillhörighet och identitet också kommer specifika moraliska etiska och politiska rättigheter och skyldigheter talar vi om normativ multikulturalism att acceptera normativ mångkulturalism innebär att också tolerera oacceptabel intolerans eftersom den normativa mångkulturalismen innebär att specifika kulturella gruppers rättigheter kan komma att ges högre dignitet än samhällsmedborgarens allmänmänskliga rättigheter och därigenom indirekt blir till försvar för dessa gruppers intolerans den normativa mångkulturalismen innebär att individer på ett oacceptabelt sätt reduceras till att vara passiva medlemmar av kultur eller identitetsbärande grupper men de som i vårt samhälle visar att de inte respekterar andra människors rättigheter kan inte räkna med att vi ska vara toleranta mot dem mot dem som i vårt samhälle vill tvinga andra att leva efter deras egna religiösa kulturella eller ideologiska trosföreställningar och tabun ska samhället vara intolerant mot dem som vill tvinga samhället att anpassa lagar och regler till den egna religionens kulturens eller gruppens tolkningar ska samhället vara intolerant de döda de döda skall icke tiga men tala förskingrad plåga skall finna sin röst och när cellernas råttor och mördarnas kolvar förvandlats till aska och urgammalt stoft skall kometens parabel och stjärnornas vågspel ännu vittna om dessa som föll mot sin mur tvagna i eld men inte förbrunna till glöd förtrampade slagna men utan ett sår på sin kropp och ögon som stirrat i fasa skall öppnas i frid och de döda skall icke tiga men tala om de döda skall inte tigas men talas fast stympade strypta i maktens cell glasartade beledda i cyniska väntrum där döden har klistrat sin freds propaganda skall de vila länge i samvetets montrar balsamerade av sanning och tvagna i eld och de som redan har stupat skall icke brytas och den som tiggde nåd i ett ögonblicks glömska skall resa sig och vittna om det som inte brytes för de döda skall inte tiga men tala nej de döda skall icke tiga men tala de som kände triumf på sin nacke skall höja sitt huvud och de som kvävdes av rök skall se klart de som pinades galna skall flöda som källor de som föll för sin motsats skall själva fälla de som dräptes med bly skall dräpa med eld de som vräktes av vågor skall själva bli storm och de döda skall icke tiga men tala erik lindegren next page recent posts arbetslöshetsiffran som styr den ekonomiska politiken 50 år efter studenten personal finding the late student stuff love s secret stein s paradox a lesson on precision and unbiasedness audioholic summer research ett välförtjänt bottenrekord arbetslösheten inte statsskulden är problemet how credible is the credibility revolution in econometrics randomness and representativeness are not the same lönebildning och arbetslöshet i sverige nancy cartwright s contributions to the philosophy of science what does randomisation guarantee nothing model reification in statistics and econometrics why democracy outperforms dictatorship comments policy i like comments follow netiquette comments especially anonymous ones with pseudo argumentations abusive language or irrelevant links 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