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description= 15 posts published by Lars Syll during July 2019;
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monetary system of a country is in the hands of a single credit institution provided with an adequate number of branches at which each independent economic individual keeps an account on which he can draw cheques what modern monetary theory mmt basically does is exactly what wicksell tried to do more than a hundred years ago the difference is that today the pure credit economy is a reality and not just a theoretical curiosity mmt describes a fiat currency system that almost every country in the world is operating under in modern times legal currencies are totally based on fiat currencies no longer have intrinsic value as gold and silver what gives them value is basically the simple fact that you have to pay your taxes with them that also enables governments to run a kind of monopoly business where it never can run out of money a fortiori spending becomes the prime mover and taxing and borrowing is degraded to following acts if we have a depression the solution then is not austerity it is spending budget deficits are not a major problem since fiat money means that governments can always make more of them in the mainstream economist s world we don t need fiscal policy other than when interest rates hit their lower bound zlb in normal times monetary policy suffices the central banks simply adjust the interest rate to achieve full employment without inflation if governments in that situation take on larger budget deficits these tend to crowd out private spending and the interest rates get higher what mainstream economists have in mind when they argue this way is nothing but a version of say s law basically saying that savings have to equal investments and that if the state increases investments then private investments have to come down crowding out as an accounting identity there is of course nothing to say about the law but as such it is also totally uninteresting from an economic point of view what happens when ex ante savings and investments differ is that we basically get output adjustments gdp changes and so makes saving and investments equal ex post and this nota bene says nothing at all about the success or failure of fiscal policies for the benefit of our latter day new keynesian mainstream economists let s see what a real keynesian economist has to say about crowding out and government deficits fallacy 3 government borrowing is supposed to crowd out private investment the current reality is that on the contrary the expenditure of the borrowed funds unlike the expenditure of tax revenues will generate added disposable income enhance the demand for the products of private industry and make private investment more profitable as long as there are plenty of idle resources lying around and monetary authorities behave sensibly instead of trying to counter the supposedly inflationary effect of the deficit those with a prospect for profitable investment can be enabled to obtain financing under these circumstances each additional dollar of deficit will in the medium long run induce two or more additional dollars of private investment the capital created is an increment to someone s wealth and ipso facto someone s saving supply creates its own demand fails as soon as some of the income generated by the supply is saved but investment does create its own saving and more any crowding out that may occur is the result not of underlying economic reality but of inappropriate restrictive reactions on the part of a monetary authority in response to the deficit william vickrey fifteen fatal fallacies of financial fundamentalism it is true that mmt rejects the traditional phillips curve inflation unemployment trade off and has a less positive evaluation of traditional policy measures to reach full employment instead of a general increase in aggregate demand it usually prefers more structural and directed demand measures with less risk of producing increased inflation at full employment deficit spendings will often be inflationary but that is not what should decide the fiscal position of the government the size of public debt and deficits is not as already abba lerner argued with his functional finance theory in the 1940s a policy objective the size of public debt and deficits are what they are when we try to fulfil our basic economic objectives full employment and price stability that governments can spend whatever amount of money they want is a fact that does not mean that mmt says they ought to that s something our politicians have to decide no mmter denies that too much of government spendings can be inflationary what is questioned is that government deficits necessarily is inflationary share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky har du modet att lyssna 30 jul 2019 at 14 29 posted in varia comments off on har du modet att lyssna poesi och musik i vacker förening hansson de wolfe united ett fenomen i svensk popmusik utan motstycke identity politics is bullshit 29 jul 2019 at 18 17 posted in politics society 2 comments identität ist alles ich meine werte und meine rechte das was zu mir gehört was ich bin oder sein will wovon ich überzeugt bin weil ich es einfach weiß wofür ich anerkannt und entschädigt werden muss identität ist eine riesige sprechblase die immer größer wird je mehr leute sich am spiel beteiligen identität ist heimat ist hautfarbe ist geschlecht ist sexuelle orientierung ist kultur ist herkunft ist familie ist nation ist tradition ist integration was ist identität die antwort kann nur tautologisch sein identität ist identität identität ist wie der italienische literaturwissenschaftler daniele giglioli konstatiert entsprechend ihrer lateinischen wortwurzel idem die permanenz desselben identität ist auch etwas das immanuel kant ens rationis nannte einen leeren begriff ohne gegenstand nicht identitäten fordern anerkennung von anderen sondern konkrete menschen nicht über identitäten kann und soll man streiten sondern darüber welche ansprüche berechtigt sind und welche nicht welche lebensformen mit anderen kollidieren was im zusammenleben geht und was nicht es sollte darum gehen wie menschen in all ihrer unterschiedlichkeit miteinander zurechtkommen was wir brauchen das ist eine sensibilität für situationen und kontexte die bereitschaft zu lernen und zu experimentieren identität aber ist bullshit wir sollten den nutzlosen identitätsbegriff also entsorgen theoretiker wie praktikerinnen sollten nach pragmatistischer art neue begriffe finden die sich als konkret zweckmäßig erweisen politisch und gesellschaftlich im zusammenleben der menschen und nicht bloß als bälle in einem sprachspiel das am ende höchstens dem distinktionsgewinn einiger intellektueller dient rebekka reinhard thomas vašek die zeit facebook s role in brexit 29 jul 2019 at 14 29 posted in politics society comments off on facebook s role in brexit the great hack 29 jul 2019 at 12 34 posted in politics society 4 comments just watch it everything you want to now about mmt 29 jul 2019 at 08 36 posted in economics 2 comments one of the positive contributions of mmt especially from a european point of view is that it makes it transparently clear why the euro experiment has been such a monumental disaster the neoliberal dream of having over national currencies just doesn t fit well with reality when an economy is in a crisis it must be possible for the state to manage and spend its own money to stabilize the economy when the euro was created twenty years ago it was celebrated with fireworks at the european central bank headquarters in frankfurt today we know better there are no reasons to celebrate the 20 year anniversary on the contrary already since its start the euro has been in crisis and the crisis is far from over the tough austerity measures imposed in the eurozone has made economy after economy contract and it has not only made things worse in the periphery countries but also in countries like france and germany alarming facts that should be taken seriously the problems created to a large extent by the euro may not only endanger our economies but also our democracy itself how much whipping can democracy take how many more are going to get seriously hurt and ruined before we end this madness and scrap the euro the euro has taken away the possibility for national governments to manage their economies in a meaningful way and in country after country the people have had to pay the true costs of its concomitant misguided austerity policies the unfolding of the repeated economic crises in euroland during the last decade has shown beyond any doubts that the euro is not only an economic project but just as much a political one what the neoliberal revolution during the 1980s and 1990s didn t manage to accomplish the euro shall now force on us but do the peoples of europe really want to deprive themselves of economic autonomy enforce lower wages and slash social welfare at the slightest sign of economic distress are increasing income inequality and a federal überstate really the stuff that our dreams are made of i doubt it share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky warum das deutsche schulsystem so schlecht ist 28 jul 2019 at 23 02 posted in education school comments off on warum das deutsche schulsystem so schlecht ist solow kicking lucas and sargent in the pants 28 jul 2019 at 13 25 posted in economics 2 comments professors lucas and sargent have a proposal for constructive research that i find hard to talk about sympathetically they call it equilibrium business cycle theory and they say very firmly that it is based on two terribly important postulates optimizing behavior and perpetual market clearing when you read closely they seem to regard the postulate of optimizing behavior as self evident and the postulate of market clearing behavior as essentially meaningless i think they are too optimistic since the one that they think is self evident i regard as meaningless and the one that they think is meaningless i regard as false the assumption that everyone optimizes implies only weak and uninteresting consistency conditions on their behavior it is plain as the nose on my face that the labor market and many markets for produced goods do not clear in any meaningful sense professors lucas and sargent say after all there is no evidence that labor markets do not clear just the unemployment survey that seems to me to be evidence suppose an unemployed worker says to you yes i would be glad to take a job like the one i have already proved i can do because i had it six months ago or three or four months ago and i will be glad to work at exactly the same wage that is being paid to those exactly like myself who used to be working at that job and happen to be lucky enough still to be working at it then i m inclined to label that a case of excess supply of labor and i m not inclined to make up an elaborate story of search or misinformation or anything of the sort why doesn t the unemployed worker who told me yes i would like to work at the going wage at the old job that my brother in law or my brother in law s brother in law is still holding why doesn t that person offer to work at that job for less indeed why doesn t the employer try to encourage wage reduction that doesn t happen either those are questions that i think an adult person might spend a lifetime studying they are important and serious questions but the notion that the excess supply is not there strikes me as utterly implausible robert solow no unnecessary beating around the bush here the always eminently quotable solow says it all the purported strength of new classical macroeconomics is that it has firm anchorage in preference based microeconomics and especially the decisions taken by inter temporal utility maximizing forward looking individuals to some of us however this has come at too high a price the almost quasi religious insistence that macroeconomics has to have microfoundations without ever presenting neither ontological nor epistemological justifications for this claim has put a blind eye to the weakness of the whole enterprise of trying to depict a complex economy based on an all embracing representative actor equipped with superhuman knowledge forecasting abilities and forward looking rational expectations it is as if after having swallowed the sour grapes of the sonnenschein mantel debreu theorem these economists want to resurrect the omniscient walrasian auctioneer in the form of all knowing representative actors equipped with rational expectations and assumed to somehow know the true structure of our model of the world solow once again shows us how totally and unbelievably ridiculous chicago economics is on august 23 this great economist will be 95 congratulations robert share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky chants magnetiques 28 jul 2019 at 12 31 posted in varia comments off on chants magnetiques an absolute classic my favourite autobahn music non normal normality 28 jul 2019 at 11 38 posted in economics 1 comment asset price distributions are of great practical significance for portfolio managers standard finance theory assumes that asset price changes follow a normal distribution the well known bell curve that this assumption is roughly accurate most of the time allows analysts to use very robust probability statistics for example for a sample that follows a normal distribution you can identify the population average and characterize the likelihood of variance from that average however much of nature including the man made stock market is not normal many natural systems have two defining characteristics an ever larger number of smaller pieces and similar looking pieces across the different size scales for example a tree has a large trunk and a number of ever smaller branches and the small branches resemble the big branches these systems are fractal unlike a normal distribution no average value adequately characterizes a fractal system fractal systems follow a power law using the statistics of normal distributions to characterize a fractal system like financial markets is potentially very hazardous yet theoreticians and practitioners do it daily the distinction between the two systems boils down to probabilities and payoffs fractal systems have few very large observations that fall outside the normal distribution the classic example is the crash of 1987 the probability assuming a normal distribution of the market s 20 plus plunge in one day was so infinitesimally low it was practically zero and still the losses were a staggering 2 trillion plus c est comme toute l histoire du peuple noir qui se balance entre l amour et l désespoir 28 jul 2019 at 11 32 posted in varia comments off on c est comme toute l histoire du peuple noir qui se balance entre ...
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