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description= Observations focused on the problems of an underdeveloped country, Venezuela, with some serendipity about the world (orchids, techs, science, investments, politics) at large. A famous Venezuelan, Juan Pablo Perez Alfonzo, referred to oil as the devil s excrement. For countries, easy wealth appears indeed to be the sure path to failure. Venezuela might be a clear example of that.;
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Text of the page (random words):
t the record needed to be completed posted in uncategorized 19 comments why doesn t the government change course april 17 2017 do you ever wonder why maduro does not give up he could do so many things but he is not wired that way he wants power not since the ukraine has there been a case like venezuela and it is evident the government knows history a change in style regime change change in terms of the debt regime change devaluation regime change the only path that does not lead to regime change is if the price of oil goes back up and they know it when chavez got to power debt was 22 billion it rose supported by higher oil prices that is all chavizmo borrowed right and left as oil prices rose debt went from 20 some billion to 70 1 billion while chavizmo was in power and with oil at 150 a barrel it was not only payable they could skim a little and they did but now with oil back at 50 or less there is not enough money so unless oil goes up venezuela can t survive unless there is change from the top but change implies a different model a devaluation but it all leads to regime change if you read history so they stay the course worse case oil stay at its current level and there is regime change and unhappy venezuelans earlier there was the possibility of an economic stabilization fund but money which would now be over 200 billion was not saved so another opportunity was lost yes we could default but guess what it would lead to regime change that is history again there you have it most roads lead to regime change and with collective clauses on the pdvsa debt it would be messy for this government to swing a default so they are personally rich beyond your imagination and they wait that is the plan if all else fails there is always the money they stole just in case posted in uncategorized 20 comments something has to give april 1 2017 i wrote this post a week ago but had no internet it s really a tragedy the price of oil shot up and chavez took advantage of it he also produced more and took advantage of it again producing heavy crudes and sent lots to china in exchange for cash he got more of the oil and he bartered it sold it and played with it and the oil companies he toyed with the exchange rate making it unsustainably low he allowed the government to sell us dollars cheap the government used one rate everyone else had to use a different one but then he died and the oil price went down nobody would lend venezuela money and everyone seemed against it and then fidel died and then trump won everything changed for how long that is the question maduro does not have it easy his front man got caught chavez got away with many many front men and he played with the debt which maduro can t when will things change i don t know but they will not enough oil not enough money just wait it is a matter of time nobody is chavista just because there is money to be made but it is getting harder you need know how which they don t have they had it easy for a while so they start again except it is harder this time something has to give posted in uncategorized 19 comments a letter from my sister march 8 2017 i dont t want to make this blog about me but my country is falling apart and i haven t lived there since my accident so what special knowledge do i have but i have had wonderful experiences in having people show their appreciation and they have moved me they really liked me i have mentioned some of them like waking up and noticing that people are surprised i was alive or my santiago de leon classmates whom i left many decades ago getting together and sending a picture hoping that i would wake up but nothing beats this letter from my sister my little sister beatriz she wrote it while i was in coma and gave it to me last week she shows she loves me and the letter is superb i am mickey in it a nickname she uses sometimes the letter is amazing and you can imagine how i felt reading it i love her my beloved brother my mickey i can t believe what is happening i feel trapped in a nightmare i have felt the most profound sadness my heart hurts i beg god and life that you wake up and that one day you are able to read these lines i know you know that i love you with all my heart i have no regrets with you we have given each other only beautiful things i tell you that i love you deeply every time i see you i always find you terribly handsome and i have always let you know i have caressed you re thin grey hair a thousand times i have the prettiest memories with you always laughing so many good times travels dinners wine and more wine the best conversations i remember that january our traditional new year s barbecue i called you to ask if i could bring fran you answered your happiness is my happiness i love you brother doctors don t know your head it is not any brain it is the most extraordinary brain i have met i dream about you every night and it is recurrent the dream where we talk about what happened you tell me the few things that you remember i tell you that andres was the one who called me with the news that we were having dinner with ariadna with ari with whom we used to go to atlantic city together i tell you that we took the first plane to fort lauderdale that we left josé alone in ny i tell you about kathy how sweet it was to see her love for you the hope we felt when we talked to you and you moved your hand i kissed you so much in that intensive care bed i kissed your hands i kissed your feet i begged you to open your eyes we laughed about the fact that you had spent three months without drinking wine in my dreams i see you opening a magnum of pesquera celebrating the miracle that you are i love you mickey i feel thankful for every instant that we have shared for every visit when i lived in ny for your red with purple dots underwear for each vacation in turks for each saturday that you visited us in tente allá for doing the monkey for me for each barbecue for the time we spent on the jacuzzi for each wine for each dinner for the abadía de la retuerta for venice for biking in italy for your generosity for your intelligence for every laugh for x and y s names redacted here for privacy story for everything for so much for your example this has been a very painful process the idea of loosing you is unbearable i have felt infinite sadness i can t loose you i don t accept it open your eyes brother we have so much life to share still open your eyes brother there are still many elections ahead and they all remind me of you open your eyes migue we are going to croatia open your eyes because i need you because i can t imagine being without you open your eyes because i am on your team for whatever is to come because you are going to have so much love and support open your eyes together we can handle anything open your eyes please mickey i love you bea that s it lovely isn t it i cried when i read it posted in uncategorized 28 comments the devil thought he was immortal february 26 2017 up to august 6th the devil thought he was immortal no more that day he was on a bicycle in boca raton and was hit by a car my wife was biking with me but she was ahead and wondered where i was by the time she found me i was unconscious and a long recovery began i was with no consciousness for almost a month i went to two additional hospitals and lived with tubes for a while it has been six months i spent time in an inpatient rehabilitation hospital i first remember waking up and noticed that people were very happy i was there that is how close i came since then it has been a fight to recover i am better but not fine and i have discovered i am not immortal but mortal whether i want it or not people have been amazing truly amazing i have heard from so many people some i had fogotten about classmates of mine from elementary school got together and took a picture of themselves with a sign wishing me a speedy recovery it has been remarkable i must say i never heard biking was so dangerous not one of the trips i took said it i thought it was safe i went down a volcano in hawaii at 65 mph but the devil is better not perfect but recovering slowly but surely it has been six moths but i am improving albeit slowly will i ever be the same i don t know but i will work hard for my family my friends and co workers for my wife they believed in me i will show them i may never get back to performing the same but people have shown they liked me my life was not a waste i will bring this blog back and the orchid blog too my country is no longer viable i wonder what would have happened if it had happened there but it would have made me not functional so i try not to think about that so your devil is back reduced but i will try to improve thanks to the people at healthsouth rehab sunrise fl who took me in so warmly and without knowing me have brought me back i will make them proud posted in uncategorized 85 comments we shall return october 4 2016 the devil has been silent for the last few months last summer he was struck by a car while riding his bicycle and suffered a traumatic brain injury he was in critical condition for several weeks and continued in acute care for another month but is now medically stable enough to have started physical and cognitive in patient rehabilitation treatment please keep him in your thoughts and prayers posted in uncategorized 75 comments dedicated to venezuela s political prisoners those persecuted and those in exile july 31 2016 my good friend maruja dedicates this video to venezuela s political prisoners those persecuted and those in exile posted in uncategorized 8 comments thoughts on the venezuela colombia border july 19 2016 venezuelans crowd the simon bolivar bridge in the border with colombia waiting for its opening to go buy food and supplies there i have been fascinated by the events at the venezuela colombia border for the last two weekends as the government decided to open a relief valve and let venezuelans go over to colombia for the day to shop the scenes have been fascinating but more importantly the political social and most of all economic significance of what we have seen is simply riveting start with the fact that the government shut down the border a year ago in order to supposedly stop contraband from venezuela to colombia an explanation which was simply grandstanding as the contraband flows through the hundreds of unpaved paths trochas that criss cross the border under the watchful eye and sponsorship of the venezuelan military thus it was simply a remarkably sight as well as lesson to the government to see an estimated 135 000 venezuelans cross the border this weekend alone in order to purchase the food medicines and supplies that they can no longer buy in their own country this is exactly the opposite of what the government had shut down the border for but the more important lesson is how colombia s distribution system is so much more superior to the venezuelan one by allowing markets to run things not only can colombia feed colombians but border supermarkets did quite a good job in providing food for 135 000 venezuelans overnight yes they did run out of some stuff which was not unexpected but there was also a transportation strike which influenced the fact that some supermarkets actually run out and imagine how many venezuelans had to feel to have to go to colombia to buy that very venezuelan product harina pan which was not only fully stocked on the other side but to the surprise of many that were not aware of it it was actually made in colombia and was made there by the venezuelan company that the chavista government has demonized so much industrias polar not only do markets work but companies can move from one country to another looking for the best conditions to operate in a lesson maduro and his cronies simply will not understand venezuelans buy colombian made harina pan in colombia at roughly a dollar a package and colombia s distribution system is better because it is orders of magnitude more efficient than venezuela s whether a product is imported or made there companies can buy foreign currency and then proceed to deal with the their processes to deliver the product to the consumer in contrast the venezuelan manufacturer has to deal with a supply chain a control chain and a corruption chain because at every step in venezuela from the request for foreign currency to the request for certificates of having paid taxes to a certificate of non production in venezuela to requesting the foreign currency to receiving approval to having the stuff arrive to have the stuff be brought out of the port to have the stuff trucked to the factory of distribution point etc etc etc at each of these steps there will be an official to get through an office to stamp a seal or give approval an official asking for money a gestor agent that needs to be paid a peaje toll to be complied with and each step adds costs and time to the process to the delivery of goods and it is not much different for the government each ship of meat grains or whatever needs to be accompanied by the approval of the appropriate general that decides how many tons of each should be bought which then jumps to the next step so that another general approves the payment and once the boat arrives it takes days to unload to truck it out of the port and begin a distribution chain that has all of the same problems that the private one has as stuff is deviated stolen smuggled out of the country and given to those that can pay money to to those in charge of the distribution system but chavismo refuses to see reality each time their rube goldbergeresque distribution and supply system fails to deliver they decide to add a layer assign a general to the new position and simply ignore economic reality and their own failure and the crowds going across the bridge were politically charged an image for the rest of venezuela and venezuelans of over a hundred thousand people voting with their feet taking their hard earned savings to buy their food in colombia food that not only they can t buy in venezuela but that many were surprised as to how many items were actually cheaper on the other side of the border how can any government use this image for its advantage how can it possible erase it from people minds come election time and at the same time the images were broadcast around the world clearly demonstrating the opposite of what the government contends there is indeed a crisis in venezuela and venezuelans are not being fed by a fairly wealthy but inefficient and corrupt government and as i watched the scenes i could not help but wonder about the economic implications of the shopping spree outside the country how much did each person spend how did they pay how much was it for personal consumption how much for bachaqueo how do the merchants turn the bolivars into pesos or dollars i confess i don t have all the answers i do know that people paid largely in bolivars i also know human nature i am sure t...
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